Harvard scientist says Trump hatred motivated experts who denied Wuhan lab leak theory

[Butler1000]

Yes. It was public.

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf

Four agencies lean zoonotic,
One agency leans lab leak
Three said they really can't make a call.
They all agree it wasn't developed as a biological weapon.
Six of the eight are against the idea it was genetically engineered. Two say they don't have enough evidence.

In other words, once again, nothing has changed.
There is limited evidence and people are still studying.
Pure zoonotic is the most likely explanation.
Laboratory escape is plausible but less likely.
Man-made very unlikely.
Bioweapon not really a serious option.



And still waiting for backup on the "one of them ended up on a ventilator" version of the "three people got sick in November during flu season" story.
Which you said was reported on with this release of the intelligence report.
Do you have an unclassified version of the report that specifies that?



There is nothing unbelievable about that.
It is plausible, but less likely than zoonotic.
This is the same thing I have been saying for months, maybe a year now.



As I said, you believe in "the narrative" and will just interpret things to fit the narrative you want.
This is who you are.



So again, you think the White house report by the intelligence agencies is a lie and the REAL report says "high confidence" and all the agencies have different views?
It is all an elaborate fake out because they are saving it to check China?
It's a good narrative.
Very exciting.

Id say it fits with both the MO's of China and the USA.

 

[Valcazar]

Id say it fits with both the MO's of China and the USA.

It's good justification for a higher defense budget, true.

 

[basketcase]

Thats exactly what I'm saying. The vast majority of pneumonia patients are treated with antibiotics or antiviral drugs
...

Except those that are treated with ventilators.


And sorry but no one is buying your " I heard it on the news somewhere" claim.

 

[basketcase]

...

They have been saying that almost since the beginning. The moment people blamed China in any way they started blaming the US, saying they were being framed.
...

In an interesting connection, one of the theories about the 1918 flu (which blew up at a US army base) may have started because some labourers from Manchuria.

 

[Valcazar]

In an interesting connection, one of the theories about the 1918 flu (which blew up at a US army base) may have started because some labourers from Manchuria.

Hadn't heard that one.
I thought most research at this point indicated it really did start in the US, but I'm sure there are always other interesting avenues to pursue.
(About the only place everyone is sure it didn't start is Spain.)

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Except those that are treated with ventilators

Okay, so please tell us what percentage of flu patients wind up on ventilators in Canada every year because they cant breathe and need oxygen or they will die. Doesnt have to be an exact percentage, just give us a ballpark figure.

I'll be waiting

 

[basketcase]

Okay, so please tell us what percentage of flu patients wind up on ventilators in Canada every year because they cant breathe and need oxygen or they will die. Doesnt have to be an exact percentage, just give us a ballpark figure.

I'll be waiting

Well here's a study from 2017 talking about preparing for flu pandemics and the need to stockpile ventilators as even with mild flu seasons there may be insufficient numbers of them.

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

It includes the statement
"Mechanical ventilators are essential for treating influenza patients in severe acute respiratory failure."

And if you want to look into the details, they estimate 50% of flu ICU patients could require ventilators.


There's plenty more if you want.

 

[basketcase]

And I see you're still hiding from your claim that one of the Chinese lab workers was on mechanical ventilation.

 

[squeezer]

Go to 16.25 of the video and get a rational educated answer to the leak nonsense.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Well here's a study from 2017 talking about preparing for flu pandemics and the need to stockpile ventilators as even with mild flu seasons there may be insufficient numbers of them.

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

It includes the statement
"Mechanical ventilators are essential for treating influenza patients in severe acute respiratory failure."

And if you want to look into the details, they estimate 50% of flu ICU patients could require ventilators

Thats 50% of flu patients that wind up in ICU, but that doesnt mean 50% of all flu patients in total who get sick with the flu every year require a ventilator.

So lets have a look at how many Canadians approximately get the flu every year (I'm talking pre-Covid).
In the US its between 5% and 20% annually (depending on how severe flu season is).
Source: https://www.google.ca/search?q=how+many+americans+annually+get+the+flu?&lr=&safe=images&as_qdr=all&sxsrf=AOaemvLIxBJsi_0JjsrfhkaVl9uS5tByLQ:1630624959406&ei=v1wxYdebGLOi5NoPrpCN0A8&oq=how+many+americans+annually+get+the+flu?&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAM6BwgAEEcQsAM6BggAEA0QHkoECEEYAFDKP1jRUGC6UmgBcAJ4AIABdYgB0QeSAQM3LjOYAQCgAQHIAQfAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz&ved=0ahUKEwiX992rt-HyAhUzEVkFHS5IA_oQ4dUDCA0&uact=5

Canada has about 10% of the population compared to the US.
So about 37 million Canadians live in Canada.
Now lets round it off and say in an average flu season 10% of all Canadians get the flu.
That is 3.7 million people who get sick.

Do you know how many ventilators Canada had in total prior to the Covid pandemic??
I know the answer, but I wanna see if you know it. So please post the number if you can find it

 

[Valcazar]

I am not sure why this has turned into a discussion of how many flu patients end up in the ICU, but here:

FluWatch annual report: 2019-2020 influenza season - Canada.ca

Influenza surveillance report for the 2019-2020 influenza season, published by the Public Health Agency of Canada.

www.canada.ca

FluWatch annual report: 2018-19 influenza season - Canada.ca

FluWatch Influenza surveillance annual report for 2019, published by the Public Health Agency of Canada.

www.canada.ca

Those are recent.
2019-2020 - "A total of 306 ICU admissions and 120 deaths were reported this season by participating province and territories."
2018-2019 - "A total of 613 ICU admissions and 224 deaths were reported this season."

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I am not sure why this has turned into a discussion of how many flu patients end up in the ICU, but here

Its not how many people with the flu end up in ICU, its how many are hooked up to a ventilator in order to save their life

 

[Valcazar]

Its not how many people with the flu end up in ICU, its how many are hooked up to a ventilator in order to save their life

Well, good luck with that.
Canada doesn't seem to report it.

If you actually believe 50% of people who end up in the ICU end up on a ventilator, you have your numbers.

 

[basketcase]

Thats 50% of flu patients that wind up in ICU, but that doesnt mean 50% of all flu patients in total who get sick with the flu every year require a ventilator.
...

So you are given direct proof and you still deny it while also showing you are unable to read. They directly say that up to 50% of ICU cases may require mechanical ventilation.

But sure, keep pretending it isn't common and keep pretending that there's a source for this lab worker being hooked up to one.

 

[benstt]

It is more difficult to pull off trolling when claiming controversial facts. The onus is on the troll to provide evidence, and everyone can see how that is going.

 

[squeezer]

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

So you are given direct proof and you still deny it while also showing you are unable to read. They directly say that up to 50% of ICU cases may require mechanical ventilation.

But sure, keep pretending it isn't common and keep pretending that there's a source for this lab worker being hooked up to one

Before the pandemic hit Canada had a grand total of 4,982 ventilators spread throughout 286 hospitals nationwide.
Source: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1031&context=anatomypub

Now lets say 10% of all Canadians get the flu in the winter time. That means 3.7 million Canadians get sick from the flu each year.
So at any given time there are only 4,982 ventilators needed to give treatment to whatever the number of patients seek hospital treatment every year.
3.7 million/4,982 =1 ventilator for every 724 Canadian who is sick.
Or another way too look at it is 4,982/3.7 million = .1% of all Canadians need to be put on a ventilator when they get sick from the flu each year.

So from those stats you can see how rare it is for a regular flu patient to need a ventilator.
Thats why its considered circumstantial evidence when out of those 3 Wuhan lab workers who got sick, one needed to be hooked up to a ventilator when he/she got sick. The odds raise that suspicion by quite a bit to any rational person

 

[squeezer]

The odds raise that suspicion by quite a bit to any rational person

I dunno, in my books a rational person waits for proof and hard facts before running on a tangent screaming their opinions and suspicions from a rooftop.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I dunno, in my books a rational person waits for proof and hard facts before running on a tangent screaming their opinions and suspicions from a rooftop.

Nobody's screaming from any rooftops, bro

 

[benstt]

Before the pandemic hit Canada had a grand total of 4,982 ventilators spread throughout 286 hospitals nationwide.
Source: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1031&context=anatomypub

Now lets say 10% of all Canadians get the flu in the winter time. That means 3.7 million Canadians get sick from the flu each year.
So at any given time there are only 4,982 ventilators needed to give treatment to whatever the number of patients seek hospital treatment every year.
3.7 million/4,982 =1 ventilator for every 724 Canadian who is sick.
Or another way too look at it is 4,982/3.7 million = .1% of all Canadians need to be put on a ventilator when they get sick from the flu each year.

A few things off here in your analysis.

- did you make up the 10%? Sounds like. The flu watch reports report far lower numbers
- not everyone gets the flu at the same time, cases are spread over the flu season. Seriously ill patients have a good chance of dying and freeing up ventilators
- this rate is also low for covid



You already think the wuhan person had a serious case of covid or flu. That is a given, so your real question is given that, how relatively likely is it flu in that person or covid. Being on a ventilator in serious cases of the flu is not a remote possibility like you were thinking.


Proving a claim is hard eh