Canadian Death Rates Remain Flat
- Thread starter TeeJay
- Start date
Congrats on your bet (if you actually win it). In the meantime, your prediction agrees with the fact that we have an increase in excess deaths that closely correlates with the number of covid deaths.
Your own link disproves this nonsense
It states during early pandemic (Mar - Apr) the excess was due to covid
During later months excess is due to other issues (mental health, od, suicides)
Been discussed already
Really, statscan saying there is a 7% increase is supposed to prove there is no increase? Wow. You really show some amazing math skills.
From January to mid-December 2020, there were an estimated 296,373 deaths in Canada, representing an excess of 13,798 deaths above and beyond what would have been expected had there been no pandemic.
He is, of course, referring to this section of the report:
The direct impacts of COVID-19 cannot fully account for the excess deaths observed in Canada in 2020, particularly in the fall
However, I think he is misreading it. He claims the following:
What it actually says is the following:
In the early months of the pandemic, the weekly number of excess deaths and deaths caused by COVID-19 were closely aligned and mostly affected older populations, suggesting that COVID-19 itself was driving excess mortality in Canada. However, more recently, the number of excess deaths has been higher than the number of deaths due to COVID-19, and these deaths are affecting younger populations, suggesting that other factors, including possible indirect impacts of the pandemic, are now at play.
In other words, the excess deaths were almost exclusively due to COVID in the beginning, and now aren't just due to COVID. What proportion is what? They don't have enough data to make a claim there.
What they do have is a suggestive correlation about the deaths by age group in the early Spring wave and then again in the Fall.
SPRING:
Overall, during those first months of the pandemic, 86% of excess deaths occurred among individuals aged 65 and older. Similarly, COVID-19 deaths also disproportionately occurred in older populations during the March-to-early-June period. Approximately 94% of the deaths caused by COVID-19 involved individuals aged 65 and older.
FALL:
Similar to what was observed in the spring, about 95% of the deaths directly caused by COVID-19 during the fall involved people aged 65 and older.
However, during the fall of 2020, younger people became more heavily affected by excess deaths, as 35% of these deaths involved individuals under the age of 65, up from 14% in the spring.
So in the Spring the excess was due about 86% to COVID-19. In the Fall the excess is due about 65% to COVID-19.
They only announce what is coming for the next week or two at a time.
Closest we are getting in the near future seems to be this:
Friday, 2021-04-09
Detailed preliminary data on confirmed cases of COVID-19
If I thought there was a slim chance TJ would pay up I'd take some of this action!!! Maybe Seagerbuzz will pitch in to pay off Tj's gambling debts.
I just hope he's not going to Vegas for his "trip" because the man doesn't know how to read numbers I don't believe he can count cards.
As opposed to someone who is proud about the slim chance of winning a bet that disproves his whole mania about covid?
From January to mid-December 2020, there were an estimated 296,373 deaths in Canada, representing an excess of 13,798 deaths above and beyond what would have been expected had there been no pandemic.
More TeeJay facts.which again is opposite to what the article has written.
Leave it to you to supposedly read something and assume the exact opposite of the words that are written to be true. Nowhere does it state your made up facts of "Mar-Apr", or "mental health and suicides".
Just as your ridiculous assessments that there is no excess number of deaths from COVID, but why expect anything factual from you that is driven from actual data and known facts, when you're incapable of reading and understanding.
Here is a part of the article. I highlighted the important parts specially the dates so it's easier for you to read and understand.
Deaths from other causes also up in some provinces in 2020
Statistics Canada also released today provisional data on the causes of death covering the period from January to mid-December 2020. The provisional results on causes of death, while not complete, do allow for some insight into changes in mortality during the pandemic. The cause of death has been reported for 94% of the deaths that occurred during the first period of excess mortality in Canada—from March to June.
Based on data received to date, from March to June, the number of deaths from certain causes rose in several provinces compared with the same period in previous years. For example, the number of deaths caused by heart disease in Ontario rose from 4,125 in the spring of 2019 to 4,345 in the spring of 2020, which was higher than in the spring of any of the previous five years. While overdose deaths across Canada appeared to decline in 2019 from highs in 2017 and 2018, there are early signs of an increase in 2020. For example, Alberta reported 220 deaths caused by overdoses from March to June 2020, compared with 170 overdose deaths during same time period in 2019. This could be an early indication of the indirect impacts of the pandemic, in advance of the period when excess mortality started to trend among younger age groups.
Hey Look!
www150.statcan.gc.ca
Final roll call is....
Just to round off the other tidbits here:
The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to January 2021
COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families in Canada and across the world. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical...
Final roll call is....
Above 300,000 - did not make 310, as I predicted. (post 32)
Just to round off the other tidbits here:
- Excess mortality: 16,333 more deaths than what would have been expected after accounting for changes in the population such as aging. (Raw numbers, 20,619 more deaths than in 2019.)
- Excess mortality by percentage: There were 5.6% more deaths in Canada than what would have been expected.
- COVID-19 Deaths: 14,965 deaths were recorded as directly caused by COVID-19 in 2020. (This is about 92% of the excess.)
You won the bet and TJ is hiding behind his other handles. I know he's delusional but now I will have to add coward to the list of character flaws, what a shame.Hey Look!
The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to January 2021
COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families in Canada and across the world. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical...
Final roll call is....
Above 300,000 - did not make 310, as I predicted. (post 32)
Just to round off the other tidbits here:
- Excess mortality: 16,333 more deaths than what would have been expected after accounting for changes in the population such as aging. (Raw numbers, 20,619 more deaths than in 2019.)
- Excess mortality by percentage: There were 5.6% more deaths in Canada than what would have been expected.
- COVID-19 Deaths: 14,965 deaths were recorded as directly caused by COVID-19 in 2020. (This is about 92% of the excess.)
Hey sorry missed it been away or would have marked soonerHey Look!
The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to January 2021
COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families in Canada and across the world. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical...
Final roll call is....
Above 300,000 - did not make 310, as I predicted. (post 32)
Just to round off the other tidbits here:
- Excess mortality: 16,333 more deaths than what would have been expected after accounting for changes in the population such as aging. (Raw numbers, 20,619 more deaths than in 2019.)
- Excess mortality by percentage: There were 5.6% more deaths in Canada than what would have been expected.
- COVID-19 Deaths: 14,965 deaths were recorded as directly caused by COVID-19 in 2020. (This is about 92% of the excess.)
Ironically it looks like 2021 is going to be worse than 2020 the way things are going.... we shall see
It's starting at a much higher level. Hopefully it crashes in the back half due to vaccination, but we shall see.
Even if it does crash its a percentage and with such an insanely high starting point I suspect this year rate goes up
Couple that with even more aggressive lockdowns and stayhomes which will add more suicide and other issue deaths in
This is only May
Yet despite the virus running wild (ON is worse than any US state and worse than most of central / south America now) the politicians are posting that a third of our population has ALREADY been vaccinated???
(And add to this the Snowbirds vast majority of whom wanted vaccines picked up US shots)
Its like does the vaccine work or no?
it works extremely well. But you aren't going to see a crash in the death rate at 30%. You really need to tip it over to r<1 so that the general circulating levels are down and burn themselves out. The more you re-open, the more people you need to vaccinate to achieve that.
