Canadian Death Rates Remain Flat

[TeeJay]

What exactly is the bet?

2019 Deaths = 284,082
2020 Deaths = 296,373 so far (up to mid-Dec 2020)

That we should have less than 300,000 total deaths once 2020 is final

It looks bad right now though (and comically it appears the non covid deaths will be the tipping point) but a slight increase would invalidate the deaths remain flat

It is hardly a catastrophic pandemic as death rates are similar but 2020 is inching towards being slightly worse than 2019

 

[squeezer]

It is hardly a catastrophic pandemic as death rates are similar but 2020 is inching towards being slightly worse than 2019

One can argue the lockdowns and safety protocols that have been fought to a point of annoyance by deniers are what stayed off the catastrophic numbers the pandemic may have produced?

 

[basketcase]

What exactly is the bet?

2019 Deaths = 284,082
2020 Deaths = 296,373 so far (up to mid-Dec 2020)

I think TJ is still sticking to his bet that the number of deaths in 2020 won't be higher than 2019



Obviously we have no info on causes yet but:
2019 - 284,000 deaths, just shy of 7,000 were flu or pneumonia
If the flu/pneumonia deaths are ignored, that would be roughly 277,000

2020 - 296,000 deaths through 50 weeks (at this rate 309,0000 by year end)
Take out the 22,000 covid deaths and we'd have between 274,000 and 287,000

From this superficial statistical look, sure seems like covid has caused our yearly deaths to increase.

 

[Valcazar]

One can argue the lockdowns and safety protocols that have been fought to a point of annoyance by deniers are what stayed off the catastrophic numbers the pandemic may have produced?

The best estimate would be that if we behaved like the US had, we would have US-style numbers.



That's about 2.7 times as many deaths per capita so about that many times as many COVID-19 deaths.

Obviously we have no info on causes yet but:
2019 - 284,000 deaths, just shy of 7,000 were flu or pneumonia
If the flu/pneumonia deaths are ignored, that would be roughly 277,000

2020 - 296,000 deaths through 50 weeks (at this rate 309,0000 by year end)
Take out the 22,000 covid deaths and we'd have between 274,000 and 287,000

From this superficial statistical look, sure seems like covid has caused our yearly deaths to increase.

Where are you getting 22,000 from? It's about 10,000 less than that in the StatsCan numbers so far.

 

[doggystyle99]

Don't worry our bet is still on

I am expecting a flat plateau but if final count is below 2019 even better

In the past year of me explaining the definition of these words, you still haven’t been able to understand or distinguish between Increasing VS Decreasing, please go and learn the definition of these words before you move onto a complicated word like “flat plateau”.

In true TeeJay form you are wrong as usual.
2020 deaths were higher than 2019, if one was able to do the projections with a logical and rational mindset one would have seen that coming in early to mid 2020.
Disclaimer: Knowledge of basic math is needed for the above

 

[Jenesis]

Have no idea where Teejay took that chart from and claimed it's the death rate for Canada as well as the growth rate. It is off from the actual numbers though. It's what's called TeeJay facts which is always opposite to the actual facts.

Canada's total number of deaths for 2019 was 287,460.
In 2020 the total number of deaths in Canada was 300.310.

2020 saw an increase of 12,850 deaths from the previous year and it was the highest number of deaths in Canada

2019 saw an increase of 1.3% in the total number of deaths from the previous year
2020 saw an increase of 4.4% in the total number of deaths from the previous year

Canada: number of deaths 2023 | Statista

Between July 1, 2022 and June 30, 2023, there were around 330,380 deaths reported in Canada.

www.statista.com

Just knew someone who post the real numbers. I just read this the other day and what you have posted is correct.

We didn’t see 22,000 extra deaths because as already stated, car accidents were down last year.

@Valcazar Here you go. 22,371 deaths of COVID.

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[doggystyle99]

Exactly. And since COVID is throwing off predicted numbers for everything (Canada already reporting a roughly 5% increase in the death rate through November.) they want to point out that these projections aren't yet calibrated for that.

I never sure how much to trust statista. Depending on what they are reporting they are sometimes cagey about their sources.

Statista’s numbers should be used as preliminary numbers, they are not in the business of verifying the actual numbers, they are pulling the data and posting it. Statscan is verifying the numbers and causes, that’s why it takes Statscan longer to post the actual numbers.
In this case they were pretty damn close which they are in most cases.

 

[doggystyle99]

Just knew someone who post the real numbers. I just read this the other day and what you have posted is correct.

We didn’t see 22,000 extra deaths because as already stated, car accidents were down last year.

@Valcazar Here you go. 22,371 deaths of COVID.

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

22,000 is total so far March 2021
15,000+ is for 2020.

 

[Jenesis]

22,000 is total so far March 2021
15,000+ is for 2020.

Duh. LMAO

Man that was a stupid one. LOL

I need a facepalm

 

[basketcase]

Where are you getting 22,000 from? It's about 10,000 less than that in the StatsCan numbers so far.

22,000 is the covid deaths to date so yes, my mistake. It should be 16,000 by year end.

 

[Valcazar]

Statista’s numbers should be used as preliminary numbers, they are not in the business of verifying the actual numbers, they are pulling the data and posting it. Statscan is verifying the numbers and causes, that’s why it takes Statscan longer to post the actual numbers.
In this case they were pretty damn close which they are in most cases.

Yeah, they seem pretty good ballpark.

Duh. LMAO

Man that was a stupid one. LOL

I need a facepalm

It's ok. Honest mistake.

Looks like various other estimates that are willing to be bolder than StatsCan ahead of final numbers range from 14k-16k so it ending up somewhere in there seems pretty safe.

 

[TeeJay]

22,000 is the covid deaths to date so yes, my mistake. It should be 16,000 by year end.

15,606 is the official Canadian count for 2020

 

[basketcase]

15,606 is the official Canadian count for 2020

Is that supposed to verify your claims?
2019, just under 7,000 deaths from pneumonia and the flu combined.
2020, 15,000 deaths from covid alone.

 

[TeeJay]

Is that supposed to verify your claims?
2019, just under 7,000 deaths from pneumonia and the flu combined.
2020, 15,000 deaths from covid alone.

You seem to have skipped over majority of this thread

We are comparing TOTAL deaths 2019 vs 2020

The 15K number was just to disprove your guestimate on how many may die in 2020 due to Covid
(and btw we have had as many as 12,000 flu deaths in a normal year anyways; rem in 2020 ALL deaths are attributed to Covid if they had Covid like symptoms. Symptoms which are identical to flu symptoms)

 

[basketcase]

You seem to have skipped over majority of this thread

We are comparing TOTAL deaths 2019 vs 2020
...

Which in case you missed it are about 16,000 higher than last year. Hmm. I wonder why that number seems familiar?

 

[TeeJay]

Which in case you missed it are about 16,000 higher than last year. Hmm. I wonder why that number seems familiar?

Uh no it is not
Again READ

Val has his metrics and I still doubt there will be an increase

 

[basketcase]

Uh no it is not
Again READ

Val has his metrics and I still doubt there will be an increase

Funny that you resort to claiming that the numbers are fake.

From January to mid-December 2020, there were an estimated 296,373 deaths in Canada, representing an excess of 13,798 deaths above and beyond what would have been expected had there been no pandemic. This is about 5% more deaths than expected in that period, after accounting for changes in the population, such as aging, and about 7% more deaths than the 277,276 observed within the same time frame in 2019.

The Daily — Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January to December 2020

COVID-19 continues to affect communities and families across the country and many have lost family members and friends. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

But what does the government know?

 

[TeeJay]

But what does the government know?

Its obvious you do not understand what an excess death is nor even what year this discussion with Val is even about

Anyways 284 vs 296 is not an increase
If that is final total then Val lost the bet

 

[basketcase]

Its obvious you do not understand what an excess death is nor even what year this discussion with Val is even about

Anyways 284 vs 296 is not even close to an increase
If that is final total then Val lost the bet

Again,

From January to mid-December 2020, there were an estimated 296,373 deaths in Canada, representing an excess of 13,798 deaths above and beyond what would have been expected had there been no pandemic. This is about 5% more deaths than expected in that period, after accounting for changes in the population, such as aging, and about 7% more deaths than the 277,276 observed within the same time frame in 2019.

Seems you are so wrapped up in this covid denial that you don't even bother reading what people post.

 

[Valcazar]

Its obvious you do not understand what an excess death is nor even what year this discussion with Val is even about

Anyways 284 vs 296 is not an increase
If that is final total then Val lost the bet

I find the idea that there will be < 4000 deaths in the last 15 days of 2020 very unlikely.