Reopening Ontario

[Malibuk]

Ford slams 'vicious' landlords
Ontario Premier Ford made a solemn appeal to commercial landlords in the province, calling some of them “vicious,” one day before they are legally allowed to evict tenants for non-payment of rent.
“Give these small businesses a break, they work their backs off and they’re trying to survive,” Ford said Friday.
Ontario’s Commercial Tenancies Act allows landlords to evict businesses 16 days after rent is due.
The federal and provincial governments’ Canadian Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) program allows tenants to pay just 25 per cent of their regular rent, with the feds and province covering a further 25 per cent each, provided the landlord waives the remainder.
But the program has been criticized as confusing and also requires landlords to apply for assistance, and many, for a variety of reasons, are not.
Ford asked landlords to have a heart.
“Help someone up, give them a break and work with them for a couple of months,” he said, adding demand for commercial space is basically nil right now.
“What do the landlords think, there’s going to have an army of people wanting to move in (after an eviction),” Ford said.
Several surveys conducted in Toronto have shown that the majority of small businesses tenants say they cannot afford to pay all of their May rent.
Some Maritime provinces have temporarily banned commercial evictions, but when pressed, Ford said he was reluctant to do the same.
“When someone signs a contract for a long-term lease, and the government steps in there, there will be long-term legal issues that we’ll deal with as well.”
He reiterated that the CECRA is the best option for most of them.
“You either get zero or 75 per cent, and not only do you get zero, you’re still paying costs like electricity, you’re still paying maintenance, you’re still paying taxes. Hang in there, work with them for 25 per cent, be a good landlord, support them.”
Many evictions are underway anyways in the GTA, and Ford rued those who’ve done so.
“You know what drives me crazy, I can’t stand these vicious landlords. You’ve got to protect the little guy all the time.”
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said Friday her party is calling for a moratorium on commercial evictions.
"If we want to ensure Ontario has a full and speedy economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, we can’t afford to let small businesses go under — we need to help them stay afloat now," NDP MPP Peter Tabuns said in a statement.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said he is aware that evictions will take place this month in his riding of Guelph.
"I’ve heard from small businesses whose landlords are refusing to participate in CECRA. And I’ve heard from small businesses that are being evicted today."
‘They’re trying to survive,’ Ford urges commercial landlords to go easy on tenants.

 

[Malibuk]

Ontario had 391 new known cases yesterday, and this is after they finished testing in old-age and long-term facilities.

They have opened up the criteria for getting tested but it is still the people who are sick or showing symptoms, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.

If they find 391 cases from testing 0.15% of the population, that means there are hundreds to times more cases in the other 97% who have not been tested.
Some of the previous negative tested could be infected now.
There are tens of thousands of unknown cases in Ontario right now, at least.
Proportionally, it would be hundreds of thousands.

 

[jcpro]

Ontario had 391 new known cases yesterday, and this is after they finished testing in old-age and long-term facilities.

They have opened up the criteria for getting tested but it is still the people who are sick or showing symptoms, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.

If they find 391 cases from testing 0.15% of the population, that means there are hundreds to times more cases in the other 97% who have not been tested.
Some of the previous negative tested could be infected now.
There are tens of thousands of unknown cases in Ontario right now, at least.
Proportionally, it would be hundreds of thousands.

Which, as expected by those able to do basic math, means that this thing is nowhere to being as dangerous as predicted.

 

[Malibuk]

Reset that 14 day counter again, in case anybody is still waiting for this totally useless metric.

Yesterday Ontario had 427 new known cases and they only tested 5813 people, instead of the 16000+ they are supposed to test.

 

[doggystyle99]

Reset that 14 day counter again, in case anybody is still waiting for this totally useless metric.

Yesterday Ontario had 427 new known cases and they only tested 5813 people, instead of the 16000+ they are supposed to test.

It's a very important metric, you simply do not understand the relevance and importance of it in regards to the Coronavirus and you do not understand how it's to be used. It's only your assertion and those with right wing nutbar views that a 14 day cycle in decline of number of cases is irrelevant while data and facts prove otherwise. That is due to the fact they and you are trying to spin the narrative of "Open businesses now".

Not a single professional at least from the sources I've read has said that the 14 day cycle needs to be reset every time there is an increase in cases. What the very high majority have been consistently saying is that there has to be a significant and consistent drop in the number of cases on a 14 day cycle before opening businesses or lifting isolation/quarantines.
To understand what that means take a look at Denmark, Norway, even Italy and Spain have seen a significant drop in the number of daily cases in the last 14 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Now combine that with proper tracing and health measures in place prior to and after opening businesses, countries will be able to limit the amount of cases in the future to as low as possible. Take a look at South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Israel to understand what needs to be done.
Of course this doesn't fit well with your narrative of "Open businesses now/Sweden success" nonsense.

 

[Malibuk]

Yesterday Ontario had 427 new known cases and they only tested 5813 people, instead of the 16000+ they are supposed to test.

For those who are math challenged, this works out proportionally to over 1100 new known cases.

 

[Malibuk]

Who could have seen this coming?
What will happen when CERB runs out soon?

Toronto renters are now staging protests outside the mansions of their landlords
"Today tenants made it clear that we will continue to organize with our neighbours," wrote Parkdale Organize of the mansion protests.
"Unless landlords' threats of eviction and demands for rent repayment are withdrawn, and rent forgiven for tenants unable to pay during the crisis, we are prepared to escalate our action by bringing greater numbers of our neighbours to confront even more landlords where they live and do business."

Tenants in precarious financial positions who banded together ahead of April 1 in a widespread, organized rent strike are once again sounding the alarm as May 1 approaches and encouraging their neighbours to follow suit.
"We should keep our rent. Our landlords will be fine. We may not be.
"Whatever you have, hang on to it. Once you give it to your landlord, it's gone. You won't have it for food or for medicine. You won't have it for you, your family, your friends, your neighbours, or your co-workers – no-one. Your landlord will have it. It will go in their bank account and it will secure their investments."
Campaign organizers are reiterating that there is "strength in numbers" when it comes to withholding rent, writing on their website that "thousands of us deciding to keep our rent gives us the resources to better provide for the health and well-being of our families and communities."


"We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Mr Conte said in a televised address late on Saturday.
"We have to accept it otherwise we will never be able to start up again."
The prime minister said Italy's businesses could not afford to wait until a vaccine was found, because "we would end up with a strongly damaged economic and social structure".

 

[G.D. Gentleman]

It's a very important metric, you simply do not understand the relevance and importance of it in regards to the Coronavirus and you do not understand how it's to be used. It's only your assertion and those with right wing nutbar views that a 14 day cycle in decline of number of cases is irrelevant while data and facts prove otherwise. That is due to the fact they and you are trying to spin the narrative of "Open businesses now".

Not a single professional at least from the sources I've read has said that the 14 day cycle needs to be reset every time there is an increase in cases. What the very high majority have been consistently saying is that there has to be a significant and consistent drop in the number of cases on a 14 day cycle before opening businesses or lifting isolation/quarantines.
To understand what that means take a look at Denmark, Norway, even Italy and Spain have seen a significant drop in the number of daily cases in the last 14 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Now combine that with proper tracing and health measures in place prior to and after opening businesses, countries will be able to limit the amount of cases in the future to as low as possible. Take a look at South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Israel to understand what needs to be done.
Of course this doesn't fit well with your narrative of "Open businesses now/Sweden success" nonsense.

Since you don’t really ever explain it properly, I will share what a medical professional told me - take the past in 14 day blocks, add up the cases within - and compare them as blocks.

While all stats matter in these 14 day blocks, my medical experienced friend suggested the most focused on stats in these blocks is hospital specific stats.

So for readers, look back at the last 28/42/56 days as 14 day blocks and compare to better understand the talk of 14 day trending.

 

[K Douglas]

Reset that 14 day counter again, in case anybody is still waiting for this totally useless metric.

Yesterday Ontario had 427 new known cases and they only tested 5813 people, instead of the 16000+ they are supposed to test.

That was the first time since May 8 that Ontario had greater than 400 daily cases. There is a lag in testing vs. results 2-3 business days usually. They aren't supposed to test a specific amount, tests are only conducted on those who, or their health practitioner, suspect may have the virus.

To date Ontario has tested about 566,000 people and 24,000 have tested positive - a 4.2% infection rate.

 

[K Douglas]

We should be re opening schools, the government is making a huge mistake not doing so. There is no science which points to keeping schools closed. Ontario has not seen one death due to COVID to anyone 19 years of age or under.

 

[Malibuk]

That was the first time since May 8 that Ontario had greater than 400 daily cases. There is a lag in testing vs. results 2-3 business days usually. They aren't supposed to test a specific amount, tests are only conducted on those who, or their health practitioner, suspect may have the virus.

To date Ontario has tested about 566,000 people and 24,000 have tested positive - a 4.2% infection rate.

In order for a 14 day trend to be even remotely relevant, first of all you need to have a statistically significant sample size.
You also need to have consistent volumes and diverse randomized samplings.
After all this time, they have only tested 4% of the population.
And they are focusing on those most likely to be sick, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.

If you find 400 new cases when you test 15,000 people and then you find 390 new cases and you tested 6,000, do you think this is a downward trend?

 

[Malibuk]

This lockdown and the safety measures have been in place for several virus incubation periods and people have gone through their usual routines numerous times.
Any effects of this response have long been realized and it doesn`t make sense to expect continually better results from the exact same lockdown and safety measures.

If we are not ready to open up the economy by now, we never will be with the current lockdown and safety measures.

At this point we have no choice as economic reality can`t be kicked down the road much longer.

 

[K Douglas]

In order for a 14 day trend to be even remotely relevant, first of all you need to have a statistically significant sample size.
You also need to have consistent volumes and diverse randomized samplings.
After all this time, they have only tested 4% of the population.
And they are focusing on those most likely to be sick, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.

If you find 400 new cases when you test 15,000 people and then you find 390 new cases and you tested 6,000, do you think this is a downward trend?

You're neglecting the TAT which could be up to 4 business days. I think the spike in cases after a week of below 400 has to do with the fact that early to mid last week Ontario was doing 17K+ tests per day.

 

[K Douglas]

This lockdown and the safety measures have been in place for several virus incubation periods and people have gone through their usual routines numerous times.
Any effects of this response have long been realized and it doesn`t make sense to expect continually better results from the exact same lockdown and safety measures.

If we are not ready to open up the economy by now, we never will be with the current lockdown and safety measures.

At this point we have no choice as economic reality can`t be kicked down the road much longer.

I agree with everything you say here. In conjunction with re-opening, we will need to get more testing in place. Would be nice if we could get another 2% of the pop tested within the next 30 days.

 

[2big2frail]

We should be re opening schools, the government is making a huge mistake not doing so. There is no science which points to keeping schools closed. Ontario has not seen one death due to COVID to anyone 19 years of age or under.

This is idiotic and simply won't work in Toronto because a shit load of kids take public transit to school. You know a sure fire way to spread the virus? Have a bunch of kids crammed into an enclosed space for a prolonged period of time. Oh and guess what, school aged kids live with their parents or guardians, who, you know, tend to be older and at much more risk of serious complications from the virus and death. That's not a problem though because who gives a fuck about some orphaned kids.

Oh, and there's this new syndrome that we're increasingly seeing in children many weeks AFTER they have the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/health/mis-c-coronavirus-children-doctors-immediate/index.html

But sure, it's still perfectly safe for kids to get covid.

 

[Malibuk]

You're neglecting the TAT which could be up to 4 business days. I think the spike in cases after a week of below 400 has to do with the fact that early to mid last week Ontario was doing 17K+ tests per day.

Each day the province reports the data from the precious day, not 4 days prior.

They report the number of samples that were processed that day and the number of positives found.

It doesn`t matter if the people were swabbed that day, the day before, or a couple of days before.
For a long time there was a large backlog of samples to be tested.

Another requirement in establishing any credible trend would be the need for a common point of reference to extrapolate data that is relatively relevant.
You can`t just look at the gross number of new cases when the sample processing quantity is varying by orders of magnitude.

 

[Malibuk]

This is idiotic and simply won't work in Toronto because a shit load of kids take public transit to school. You know a sure fire way to spread the virus? Have a bunch of kids crammed into an enclosed space for a prolonged period of time. Oh and guess what, school aged kids live with their parents or guardians, who, you know, tend to be older and at much more risk of serious complications from the virus and death. That's not a problem though because who gives a fuck about some orphaned kids.

Oh, and there's this new syndrome that we're increasingly seeing in children many weeks AFTER they have the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/health/mis-c-coronavirus-children-doctors-immediate/index.html

But sure, it's still perfectly safe for kids to get covid.

I don`t think the kids should go back to school because it would be a waste of time.
They have forgotten a lot and won`t learn much in a few weeks.

Do you think schools should only open up after a vaccine is ready, because it is not likely to be much different come September.
The next wave/surge could be worse than the first.

At this point, I think any further improvements we see will be from seasonal virus dissipation, which will likely be short lived.

 

[2big2frail]

I don`t think the kids should go back to school because it would be a waste of time.
They have forgotten a lot and won`t learn much in a few weeks.

Do you think schools should only open up after a vaccine is ready, because it is not likely to be much different come September.
The next wave/surge could be worse than the first.

At this point, I think any further improvements we see will be from seasonal virus dissipation, which will likely be short lived.

Schools here in Ontario are already closed for the rest of the school year by the way.

Whether schools should be opened until there is a vaccine, this is a really tough call, opening up schools will be easier in less densely populated parts of the province. Toronto has major challenges with this that I think a lot of people are overlooking, especially the government. Like I had mentioned above, a lot of kids take the TTC to school, having so many people crammed into the subway is a guaranteed way for the virus to spread like wildfire. There was study that showed New York's subway system to have been a major factor in the spread of the disease that caused that massive surge that overwhelmed their healthcare system.

I would feel much more confident about the reopening of schools if we first lowered community spread to the point where there was very low risk while also having a much more robust capacity to test and trace the virus. This is the strategy being used in East Asian, most notably South Korea, with great success. We don't have either of these two conditions. Our active cases are increasing in Toronto meaning we haven't clamped down on community spread and we haven't increased our testing and tracing capacity yet to be quick and effective as it needs to be.

If we had used the South Korean strategy we would probably would have had some sort of normalcy by the summer. But no, we're rushing to reopen while having inadequate means to actually manage the virus.

If they were to have a good strategy to actually manage the virus then yeah, I think it would be okay to cautiously open schools to some degree, definitely not to the extent of how they were running before the pandemic, but at least partial opening without a vaccine. The problem is I don't expect to see good strategy by the way things have been going. Hopefully they find that one of the many existing anti-virals they are testing right now to be effective so we can at least have some sort of treatment by the Fall.

 

[Malibuk]

Another requirement in establishing any credible trend would be the need for a common point of reference to extrapolate data that is relatively relevant.
You can`t just look at the gross number of new cases when the sample processing quantity is varying by orders of magnitude.

What part of this is so difficult to comprehend?

Ford 'shocked' by COVID-19 testing numbers, vows they will increase
TORONTO — Premier Doug Ford is vowing to increase COVID-19 testing after several days of low numbers.
Despite fewer than 10,000 tests being completed in each of the past three days — levels half or even a third of what was being done last week — the numbers of new cases is holding relatively steady.

 

[Malibuk]

If we had used the South Korean strategy we would probably would have had some sort of normalcy by the summer. But no, we're rushing to reopen while having inadequate means to actually manage the virus.

We are not rushing to reopen.
If we are not ready to reopen by now, it means that our lockdown and safety measures were not strong enough.
After all this time, it doesn`t make sense to expect continually better results from the exact same lockdown and safety measures.

South Korea had to shut down bars again after several new cases were traced back to 1 person.
Hokkaido Japan lifted their lockdown when they were down to 1 or 2 new known cases per day. They saw an increase to 10 - 20 and locked down again.


"We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Mr Conte said in a televised address late on Saturday.
"We have to accept it otherwise we will never be able to start up again."
The prime minister said Italy's businesses could not afford to wait until a vaccine was found, because "we would end up with a strongly damaged economic and social structure".