Reopening Ontario

[Malibuk]

And they are focusing on those most likely to be sick, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.

The effects of our response have long been realized.
Any flattening of the curve will not be seen as long as you are only testing people who are sick and at highest risk.

They should be doing broad diverse randomized testing of asymptomatic people.

Ontario can`t even test 0.1% per day (14,500), so of course this will not happen any time soon.

 

[doggystyle99]

We are not rushing to reopen.
If we are not ready to reopen by now, it means that our lockdown and safety measures were not strong enough.
After all this time, it doesn`t make sense to expect continually better results from the exact same lockdown and safety measures.

South Korea had to shut down bars again after several new cases were traced back to 1 person.
Hokkaido Japan lifted their lockdown when they were down to 1 or 2 new known cases per day. They saw an increase to 10 - 20 and locked down again.


"We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Mr Conte said in a televised address late on Saturday.
"We have to accept it otherwise we will never be able to start up again."
The prime minister said Italy's businesses could not afford to wait until a vaccine was found, because "we would end up with a strongly damaged economic and social structure".

It's been explained to you numerous times why schools or businesses should not open now but here you are complaining about not opening, it's also been explained to you numerous times that our measures taken were good enough, matter of fact you've complained about them being too strict, now you're trying to spin the narrative that they weren't strong enough. So what is it were they too strong or not strong enough?

 

[Malibuk]

Half of Canadian businesses can't make June rent: CFIB
Half of small businesses will not be able to pay June rent without more government help, a survey has found.
Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) recently conducted a survey of its membership of 110,000, with 6,379 of those members responding.
And 55% say rent relief could make the difference between their business surviving COVID-19 or shutting for good.
The survey, taken over the Victoria Day weekend, indicates 67% agree that the Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA), which provides interest-free loans of up to $40,000 to small businesses and not-for-profits, should be forgivable. Sixty-five per cent of small businesses also say governments have been too slow in providing rent relief.
On top of that, up to 80% in the arts and recreation sector say that without more financial help, they will shut down permanently. Up to 70% in the hospitality sector won’t be able to make June’s rent without assistance.
The survey found 22% of small businesses fear eviction, which is most palpable in Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta.
“We’ve been asking for rent relief since March. Even when CECRA (Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance) applications become available, we know that program will leave businesses without the help they desperately need,” Laura Jones, CFIB’s executive vice-president, said.
“The closer we get to June 1, the more stressful things are getting and the more business failures we will see.”
“Expanding the Canada Emergency Business Account to cover many more businesses is a great start and it’s urgent this be implemented in time for June 1. We would now like to see government increase the forgivable portion of CEBA which would go a long way to cover the CECRA shortfall.”
The CFIB said it continues to advocate for making the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) available as quickly as possible, allowing tenants to access the 50% relief when landlords don’t intend to apply for the program, and increasing eligibility where currently, only tenants with a 70% revenue drop qualify. The federation also suggests increasing the amount of the CEBA loan and the forgivable portion of the loan, reducing property taxes by a minimum of 25% and protecting commercial tenants, otherwise in good standing with landlords, from eviction during the COVID-19 crisis.
“We described April 1 as scary and May 1 as feeling like a nightmare on Main Street,” Jones said. “I don’t want to think about the words we’ll have to find to describe June 1 if governments can’t get their acts together to help businesses at this crucial time. Even with reopening, too many businesses will go down with no rent relief.”

 

[Malibuk]

Government still flying blind on COVID-19
Two months ago, our governments shut down the nation’s economy and ordered the self-isolation of millions of people based on a mistake.
Using hopelessly incomplete data, they wrongly concluded that the coronavirus was a deadly disease that would spread like wildfire, killing tens of thousands of Canadians.
Governments and health agencies have ignored scientific studies from across the world that showed that the World Health Organization (WHO) dire infection and mortality predictions were dead wrong.
The solution employed to try to stop the disease was economic shutdown and self-isolation to “flatten the curve,” to prevent the disease from infecting so many people that hospital emergency rooms would be overwhelmed.
This has resulted in millions without jobs and financial ruin for thousands of businesses, with our federal and provincial governments financing the shutdown on the backs of future generations.
Has this cure become worse than the disease?
But, generally, only those showing COVID-19 symptoms, as well as health professionals, first responders and senior home staff, have been tested.
Since people with symptoms and those exposed to these people are more likely to be infected than a Canadian chosen at random, no one knows how well these numbers apply to the population at large.
The true death rate could be far lower than feared and so nothing to justify the shutdown of our entire economy. We just don’t know.
Our health officials and political leaders have been flying blind.
To determine if COVID-19 is as deadly as we have been told, our governments must determine what fraction of the 96.3% of Canada’s population that remain untested have COVID-19.
Scientists are concluding that National Random Representative Testing should be used to get a clear picture of COVID-19’s true infection and mortality rates.
Then our epidemiologists would have a more complete picture of the coronavirus infection/mortality rates and the number of people who have the disease but display no symptoms.
We would also uncover the extent of the herd immunity existing in Canada to fight off future waves of COVID-19.
The most urgent task for governments in Canada right now is to get the COVID-19 data urgently needed to make good social and economic policy.
The federal government must immediately commission a nationwide random testing for the coronavirus for both the infection rate and the antibody rate.

 

[doggystyle99]

Government still flying blind on COVID-19
Two months ago, our governments shut down the nation’s economy and ordered the self-isolation of millions of people based on a mistake.
Using hopelessly incomplete data, they wrongly concluded that the coronavirus was a deadly disease that would spread like wildfire, killing tens of thousands of Canadians.
Governments and health agencies have ignored scientific studies from across the world that showed that the World Health Organization (WHO) dire infection and mortality predictions were dead wrong.
The solution employed to try to stop the disease was economic shutdown and self-isolation to “flatten the curve,” to prevent the disease from infecting so many people that hospital emergency rooms would be overwhelmed.
This has resulted in millions without jobs and financial ruin for thousands of businesses, with our federal and provincial governments financing the shutdown on the backs of future generations.
Has this cure become worse than the disease?
But, generally, only those showing COVID-19 symptoms, as well as health professionals, first responders and senior home staff, have been tested.
Since people with symptoms and those exposed to these people are more likely to be infected than a Canadian chosen at random, no one knows how well these numbers apply to the population at large.
The true death rate could be far lower than feared and so nothing to justify the shutdown of our entire economy. We just don’t know.
Our health officials and political leaders have been flying blind.
To determine if COVID-19 is as deadly as we have been told, our governments must determine what fraction of the 96.3% of Canada’s population that remain untested have COVID-19.
Scientists are concluding that National Random Representative Testing should be used to get a clear picture of COVID-19’s true infection and mortality rates.
Then our epidemiologists would have a more complete picture of the coronavirus infection/mortality rates and the number of people who have the disease but display no symptoms.
We would also uncover the extent of the herd immunity existing in Canada to fight off future waves of COVID-19.
The most urgent task for governments in Canada right now is to get the COVID-19 data urgently needed to make good social and economic policy.
The federal government must immediately commission a nationwide random testing for the coronavirus for both the infection rate and the antibody rate.

Malibuk another opinion piece article posted by you. Purposely posting only the parts that fit your narrative "Open businesses now" and purposely leaving out the parts that shows the Coronavirus is a serious threat. As of right now there are 80,000 confirmed cases in Canada with over 6,000 deaths and this is with a shutdown

So like the article tries to falsely suggest they were “using hopelessly incomplete data, they wrongly concluded that the Coronavirs was a deadly disease that would spread like wildfire killing tens of tousands of Canadians" which part of data was incomplete that the Canadian government used to shutdown businesses?

Here is the link to the full article if anyone wants to read it.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-government-still-flying-blind-on-covid-19

 

[Malibuk]

If your positivity rate can go from 2% to 7% in short order, obviously your data is totally useless.

Ontario reports 413 new cases of COVID-19 as worrisome upward trend continues
Ontario has reported another 413 new cases of COVID-19, which marks a continuation of a worrisome upward trend.
It is an increase from the 390 new cases confirmed on Wednesday and represents the second highest number of new cases reported in any 24-hour period in nearly two weeks.
So far this week Ontario has seen its rolling five-day average of new cases steadily increase just as the economy partially reopens with the beginning of Phase One of the government’s reopening plan.
On Monday the rolling five-day average of new cases was 326 but it has since gone up to 360, 370 and is now 375.
The rise in cases also comes amid what Premier Doug Ford has conceded has been a “shocking” drop off in testing.
On Wednesday there were 10,506 tests completed in Ontario. That is up from the 7,382 tests completed on Tuesday and the 5,813 tests completed on Monday but remains well off the province’s supposed testing capacity of 20,000 per day.
It also points to an alarming rise in the positivity rate, which at one point had dipped below the two per cent threshold but surpassed seven per cent earlier this week and now stands at just under four per cent.

 

[MissCroft]

Despite fewer than 10,000 tests being completed in each of the past three days — levels half or even a third of what was being done last week — the numbers of new cases is holding relatively steady.

Yes, but it takes a few days for the test results. There has been a significant drop in the number of tests in the last three days (probably due to the holiday weekend and nicer weather). However, a few days ago (I think it was Saturday) there were over 19,000 tests done. So aren't we just now getting those results? If so, and the numbers are still relatively steady, that's pretty good.

 

[MissCroft]

You're neglecting the TAT which could be up to 4 business days. I think the spike in cases after a week of below 400 has to do with the fact that early to mid last week Ontario was doing 17K+ tests per day.

This.

 

[Malibuk]

Yes, but it takes a few days for the test results. There has been a significant drop in the number of tests in the last three days (probably due to the holiday weekend and nicer weather). However, a few days ago (I think it was Saturday) there were over 19,000 tests done. So aren't we just now getting those results? If so, and the numbers are still relatively steady, that's pretty good.

Each day the province reports the data from the previous day, and the cumulative numbers.
Each day the province reports how many samples were processed that day and how many were positive.
They are processing half or less quantity and still finding the same or more positives.

It doesn`t matter if the people were swabbed that day or the previous day or a combination.
There was a large backlog for a long time, and the number of samples processed each day varied greatly.

The lower number of samples that are processed should not be limited to the number of swabs that they have.
There should always be more samples to be processed.
If there are not enough sick people coming for tests, this is all the more reason they should be doing broad diverse randomized testing.

 

[Malibuk]

This.

They are not saying we found 400 new known cases based on the 19,000 tests that were done 4 days ago, and today we tested 10,000 so we will let you know the number of positives from this batch in 4 days.

This is ridiculous and makes no sense.

Each day they say how many samples were processed the previous day and how many of those were positive.

 

[MissCroft]

They are not saying we found 400 new known cases based on the 19,000 tests that were done 4 days ago.

This is ridiculous and makes no sense.

Each day they say how many samples were processed the previous day and how many of those were positive.

I could be wrong but I don't think so. I believe that the results take 3 or 4 days so, yes, some of the new positive results would be based on the 19,000 people tested a few days ago.

 

[MissCroft]

Each day they say how many samples were processed the previous day and how many of those were positive.

But if the test results take a few days how would they know the results from the previous day? I don't think they know the results that quickly. I also check the provincial stats every day and have been doing so since Early to mid April. Maybe I'm not understanding them....? Do they process the same number of test samples each day regardless of the number of people tested?

 

[doggystyle99]

If your positivity rate can go from 2% to 7% in short order, obviously your data is totally useless.

Ontario reports 413 new cases of COVID-19 as worrisome upward trend continues
Ontario has reported another 413 new cases of COVID-19, which marks a continuation of a worrisome upward trend.
It is an increase from the 390 new cases confirmed on Wednesday and represents the second highest number of new cases reported in any 24-hour period in nearly two weeks.
So far this week Ontario has seen its rolling five-day average of new cases steadily increase just as the economy partially reopens with the beginning of Phase One of the government’s reopening plan.
On Monday the rolling five-day average of new cases was 326 but it has since gone up to 360, 370 and is now 375.
The rise in cases also comes amid what Premier Doug Ford has conceded has been a “shocking” drop off in testing.
On Wednesday there were 10,506 tests completed in Ontario. That is up from the 7,382 tests completed on Tuesday and the 5,813 tests completed on Monday but remains well off the province’s supposed testing capacity of 20,000 per day.
It also points to an alarming rise in the positivity rate, which at one point had dipped below the two per cent threshold but surpassed seven per cent earlier this week and now stands at just under four per cent.

Once again you purposely left out the link and posted the parts of the article that fits the narrative you're trying to spin and left out important parts of the article that is in opposition to the narrative you're trying to spin. Here is the important part on what the Premier said.

Ford said if the number of new cases of COVID-19 continue to rise he “won’t hesitate” to reintroduce some of the restrictions that have been lifted as part of the first phase of Ontario’s reopening plan.


Here is the full article if anyone wants to read it.
https://www.cp24.com/news/i-will-be...-continues-to-struggle-with-testing-1.4948312

 

[Malibuk]

But if the test results take a few days how would they know the results from the previous day? I don't think they know the results that quickly. I also check the provincial stats every day and have been doing so since Early to mid April. Maybe I'm not understanding them....? Do they process the same number of test samples each day regardless of the number of people tested?

Let`s say they have a swab fest and take 100,000 samples that need to be tested.
Each day they will process between 5,000 and 20,000.
The results from each day will be posted the next day. The number of samples that were processed and the number that were positive.

There should never be people sitting around just waiting for more samples to process.
We should be doing as much broad diverse randomized testing as we possibly can. The limiting factor is not a shortage of swabs.

 

[Malibuk]

I could be wrong but I don't think so. I believe that the results take 3 or 4 days so, yes, some of the new positive results would be based on the 19,000 people tested a few days ago.

I think you are confused by the time that someone is swabbed and their sample is taken, and the time it takes for that sample to be processed.

Regardless of when the sample was collected, the government is reporting how many samples were processed the previous day and how many of those results were positive.

 

[bebe]

The testing numbers where high a few weeks backs only because the Government wanted to test those living in LTCH's. They had a captive group in which to test so it made their job simple.

The standard to be tested has not changed much since they where first introduced: fever, body aches, new or worsening cough, now they added loss of small and taste.

The number of tests being carried out are determined by the doctors in the field, if they feel you do not exhibit symptoms why would they test you. The tests are not ordered to please Ford.

Ford's new approach to get the numbers up again are to test specific portions of population such as teachers, daycare workers and those working in LTCH's. The testing would be carried out even if you have no symptoms.

I would not subject myself to be tested just to get the numbers up. If I have no symptoms why should I get a test...it is a waste of my time, a test kit, the lab tech, the doctor, the nurse...just more wasted money.

The number of daily tests being carried out is not relevant, the only metric is the number of new cases and number of deaths.

The true metric are the number of deaths and their age group. We already know those who are already ill, typically older than 65 or 70 are at great risk.

Based on the number of deaths, a vast majority of those younger than 65 will not die from covid 19. Again you need to look at the those under 65 who died to see if they had a pre existing medical condition.

Once the high risk group is removed from the tally the number of deaths (Ontario) is very very low.

Testing is trivial at 15,000 per day as it would take almost 1,000 days to test all those living in Ontario just once.

 

[Malibuk]

It is highly likely that the curve has been flattened but you won`t know it if you only test sick people and those at high risk.

And there is no way to establish a trend if the number of new cases remains around the same but the number of tests is dramatically different.
400 out of 6000 is not the same as 400 out of 16000.

At this point, I think it is more important to keep an eye on ICU and ventilator capacity trends and focus on anti-body testing.
The Feds want to do 1 million anti-body tests in Canada over 2 years. This is totally inadequate and ridiculous.


Ontario conducted 10,506 tests in the last-recorded 24-hour period. That number is up compared to 7,382 tests conducted on Tuesday and 5,813 tests conducted on Monday, but down significantly compared to the province’s goal set out earlier in the pandemic – hitting 20,000 tests per day.
Ford went on to state that officials are working on “coming up with a plan” that will be laid out “hopefully sooner rather than later” to himself and Elliott.
“This is what we have to do,” he said. “We can’t just be testing people with symptoms, we have to start going to the broader public and start testing as many people as possible, asymptomatic people, and until we do that – and I’m not medical expert, I’ve said it a thousand times – but, until we do that we can’t get our hands around the whole system.”
“How do we know how many asymptotic people are out there right now? But if we keep testing and tracing and testing and tracing we’re going to get it done.”

 

[Malibuk]

Testing is trivial at 15,000 per day as it would take almost 1,000 days to test all those living in Ontario just once.

It is statistically insignificant.
It has taken so long to test a mere 4%, a lot of those negatives could have since become positive.
Plus a lot of negatives could have already recovered before they were tested.

This is like an election poll of 100 people in a Liberal dominated riding.
Totally useless.

 

[Malibuk]

I don`t think there will be a second wave, it is going to be one continuous wave with potential surges.


Ontario is reporting its highest number of new cases of COVID-19 since May 8, marking the continuation of a worrisome trend that has seen numbers on the rise for close to a week now.
Despite far fewer tests being completed, the numbers of new cases is going up.
The Ministry of Health says that there were 441 new cases of the virus confirmed on Thursday, up from 413 new cases on Wednesday.
Since the beginning of this week, the province has seen its rolling five-day average of new cases steadily increase.
It was 326 on Monday but since then it has went to 360, 370, 375 and now 395.
The jump comes as many retail stores slowly reopen as part of the first phase of Ontario’s three-phase plan to restart the economy.
Premier Doug Ford, however, has warned that he “will not hesitate” to “roll things back” if the numbers continue to head in the wrong direction.
“"If we see the numbers start spiking, we will roll things back in a heartbeat," Ford said earlier this week. "The health and wellbeing of people in the province is my number one priority."
The latest data also suggest that there were another 28 deaths in people who have contracted COVID-19 on Thursday.

 

[doggystyle99]

It is statistically insignificant.
It has taken so long to test a mere 4%, a lot of those negatives could have since become positive.
Plus a lot of negatives could have already recovered before they were tested.

This is like an election poll of 100 people in a Liberal dominated riding.
Totally useless.

Malibuk you are still trying to attempt and diminish the importance of a 14 day cycle decline in the numbers by saying there is not enough testing so a 14 day decline in the numbers is irrelevant. Again although I agree and majority of people agree testing in Ontario is lacking but in no way does that diminish the importance of a 14 day cycle decline in the number of cases before opening.

Also Canada's tesing is on par with majority of other countries, Ontario's testing is no different out of the major countries with a significant population (25Mln+) Canada is currently 8th in testing right behind the USA but our testing should be better and I do hope they are able to meet the numbers they have already set which hasn't been achieved yet.
As well testing takes a lot of resource and a lot of money to administer not all countries will be able to achieve the same test results. The countries that are doing better than Canada in testing are all very unique in some way, for EX Italy 5% and Spain 6% testing so far both have been testing for a lot longer period of time than Canada and are just reaching those numbers, Russia at 6% is testing a lot of people in a very short period of time, Germany 4.5% is testing a lot of people and both have poured so much money and have the capabilities/resources available to do so.