Pickering Angels

Coronavirus: Are You Scared?

Coronavirus: Are You Scared?

  • Yes

    Votes: 109 38.0%
  • No

    Votes: 178 62.0%

  • Total voters
    287

Polaris

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Oct 11, 2007
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This paranoia reveals a lot about people and how for granted they take their safety and security.

But what positive will fear do? It will make you irrational, raise your stress levels and release the bad hormones and chemicals throughout your body. Some people might even give themselves PTSD.
An excellent post, enjoyed reading it very much. Thanks for sharing.

On the same topic, it is about paranoid people. Remember that joke?

Ask any paranoid person, why are you paranoid?

The automatic reply from the paranoid would be: "It keeps me alive".

Rationally speaking, there is no way we can argue with that.

Survival is a basic instinct. The fight/flight response.
 

PornAddict

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Aug 30, 2009
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This is reality: All US Hospital Beds Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th or latest May 20' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis

A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy's figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.



Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...-reports-516-new-cases-bringing-total-to-5328

Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food
https://www.linkedin.com/in/liz-spe...issionId=29c953ac-9952-fa15-7189-50e2776b5067
Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=20
or continue reading below.

Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n


Continued:

*We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

*We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.

*As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.

*
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).

*Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).

* By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)


* If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.

* If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.


* As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.

* Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).

*There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)

* As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.

* One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.

*How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China.

* Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor.

* Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.

* HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.

* We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.

* Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.

* Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.


* I’m an make biochemical & molecular engineer also. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.

*Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.



*But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.

* These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.

*And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared?

* Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out.

* One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.


*Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population

*But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months.

*That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge.

*This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.

*That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end


Liz Specht
@LizSpecht

Mar 7
Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow
@trvrb
who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097553520660483?s=21

Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
·
Mar 6
Replying to
@trvrb
Using forward simulation, with a doubling time of 6.2 (5.1, 8.2) days, we estimate the prevalence of active infections on Mar 5 is 620 (90% uncertainty interval 120, 1600). 4/7


Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
·
Mar 6
If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097553520660483?s=21
 

Smallcock

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Jun 5, 2009
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People don’t want to accept that reality, pornaddict. They’d rather listen to celebrity psychologist Dr. Drew expound on what little he knows about pandemics. While we're at it, maybe we should get additional expertise from Dr. Phil and Dr. Dre on the matter.

This would have been over if we had simply bombed China weeks ago. I know that sounds awful but it’s better than the alternative which was to use flamethrowers to burn men, women, and children alive en masse. Now we can do nothing other than wait to contract the virus which is coming to your neighborhood within weeks.
 

PornAddict

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PornAddict

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This would have been over if we had simply bombed China weeks ago. I know that sounds awful but it’s better than the alternative which was to use flamethrowers to burn men, women, and children alive en masse.

You are #%!# crazy!! China would had fire nukes missiles if USA had bomb China. The correct thing would had if WHO had declared a pandemic in beginning of Feb. And then all countries should had shut down all border with China .
And especially Canada should had shut & closed all boundaries with all affected countries especially China , but Justin Trudeau his value Political correctness culture is too important for him don't want to hurt visibility minority people feelings and his woke images is more value then the safety of Canadians. He must maintain his freaking $#% precious PC culture images. Guess what virus don't give about damm about PC culture or his woke images.


PS. Billions of dollars spend on bullshit global warming/ aka climate change would had better been spend on preparing a pandemic when last time SARS hit Canada don't you think?
PPS. If Canada had stocked pile 60 million face mask for every Canadian we would be more prepared and better able to handle it when it comes! ( it matter of weeks / at most a couple months when we feel the full effect). That not counting if there a second wave in Fall/ winter if it comes back like the seasonal flu.
 

PornAddict

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Smallcock

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You are #%!# crazy!! China would had fire nukes missiles if USA had bomb China. The correct thing would had if WHO had declared a pandemic in beginning of Feb. And then all countries should had shut down all border with China .
And especially Canada should had shut & closed all boundaries with all affected countries especially China , but Justin Trudeau his value Political correctness culture is too important for him don't want to hurt visibility minority people feelings and his woke images is more value then the safety of Canadians. He must maintain his freaking $#% precious PC culture images. Guess what virus don't give about damm about PC culture or his woke images.


PS. Billions of dollars spend on bullshit global warming/ aka climate change would had better been spend on preparing a pandemic when last time SARS hit Canada don't you think?
PPS. If Canada had stocked pile 60 million face mask for every Canadian we would be more prepared and better able to handle it when it comes! ( it matter of weeks / at most a couple months when we feel the full effect). That not counting if there a second wave in Fall/ winter if it comes back like the seasonal flu.
All very good points.

This is getting close to 4 years of obsession! Stop the TDS before it makes you sicker than the coronavirus!
 

Gooseifur

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Aug 13, 2019
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Canada and the U.S will never shut down regions of the country like China, Italy and South Korea did. they care more about money than people's lives. If they don't shut regions as this expands it will be worse than any other country has seen maybe besides China.
 

PornAddict

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An infectious diseases expert at the forefront of the search for a coronavirus vaccine said on Friday that it was the most "frightening disease" he's ever encountered, and that "war is an appropriate analogy" for what the country is facing, as "50 - 70 percent of the global population" may become infected.

CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus - saying it's the scariest outbreak he's dealt with in his 20-year career




Dr. Richard Hatchett, who sat on the White House Homeland Security Council in 2005 - 2006 and was a principal author of the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan,

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf
and currently heads the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, told the UK's Channel 4:

" Go to 18:16 of video ....This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career , and
that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS. And it's frightening because of the combination of infectiousness and a lethality that appears to be manyfold higher than flu."
 

PornAddict

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He feels this way "because of the combination of infectiousness, and a lethality that appears to be many-fold higher than the flu."

Go to 6:08 of video



When asked what concerns him the most about coronavirus, Hatchett said:


"I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death. And we have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combined those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses. We have seen certainly, Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases that CEPI, the organisation that I run, works on - but those viruses had high mortality rates - I mean, Ebola's mortality rate in some settings is greater than 80%. But they don't have the infectiousness that this does. They don't have the potential to explode and spread globally."
 

PornAddict

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Go to 17:55 of video.


Hatchett added "I don’t think it is a crazy analogy to compare this to World War II. The World Health Organisation is using those kinds of terms. They have seen what this virus is capable of doing.

"He then said that coronavirus has the "potential to cause a global pandemic if we're not already there."Turning to how the virus has spread around the world, Hatchett said "Singapore and Hong Kong did not shut themselves down but they have mounted very aggressive responses.

Contact tracing is very important. The voluntary quarantine of contacts is very important. The isolation of cases is important. I think there may be a time to close schools."Created three years ago to fight emerging diseases that threaten global health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is a partnership of governments, industry and charities.
-------------------------//--//---------------------/-------------------/---------///////-----------//////--------------------------------/////----------------

According to a certain terbites ( not naming name here) it all about fear mongering and it all about face saving when China quarantined their cities.

Common sense don't apply to here ... China rather lose billions of dollars per days to close their cities ( ' quarantine' ) in order to save face according to a certain terbite here.

Do you honestly believe communist China numbers ' fake numbers' manipulate numbers?


PS That certain terbite not naming name here make an excellent spokesperson for Communist China here.

PPS. A special thanks to Polaris for finding this video. Excellent video !!! .
 
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hamermill

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Oct 2, 2001
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In a place far, far away
Nope not scared one bit but that cartoon president of the US of A s s says it is just a hoax.
 

Smallcock

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Jun 5, 2009
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The virus mortality rate started out at 2.2% then climbed to 3.4% and now we’re seeing 4.9%. It’s getting stronger as it mutates. Canadians have no idea what’s about to hit them. The passivity and naivety of the general public, and Canada’s PM, will be its greatest undoing.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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The virus mortality rate started out at 2.2% then climbed to 3.4% and now we’re seeing 4.9%. It’s getting stronger as it mutates. Canadians have no idea what’s about to hit them. The passivity and naivety of the general public, and Canada’s PM, will be its greatest undoing
To be honest, I dont think there's anything Trudeau, Trump or any other leader can do to stop this. You'd have to lock down the entire country, but then how would commercial goods get into the country?? So it looks this virus is just gonna have to run its course.

But out of curiosity, if you were JT, what would you do stop the virus from entering Canada??
 

sp free

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May 31, 2003
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Shut down flights from China a month ago, followed by Iran and Italy as a bare minimum. Proper screening in airports, real quarantines for all infected. You can still send them home, just take measures to make sure they stay there. Like house arrest.

Stop all leisure travel, and mass gatherings. You can still have essential movement like imports, exports, truck and train transport of goods.

It’s ridiculously easy to take minimal measures which we still haven’t done. This government is criminally liable in my opinion.
 
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