Gas-Powered Cars Will Vanish in 8 Years, Big Oil Will Collapse: Stanford Study

[The "Bone" Ranger]

Does someone have data on as to how long does it take the battery toll deplete if the car is not driven at all? This would translate into (unnecessary) lost energy which is bad for the environment...

 

[FAST]

Does someone have data on as to how long does it take the battery toll deplete if the car is not driven at all? This would translate into (unnecessary) lost energy which is bad for the environment...

Lithium batteries sitting on a shelf have almost no self discharging,...in a electric car,...considering the huge capacity they have,...and all they have to do is maintain a computer,...my guess is years, at the very least.

 

[fuji]

And just where is all this electricity going to come from ?

My vote would be nuclear power since it doesn't result in co2 emissions, augmented where possible with renewable energy sources.

 

[oil&gas]

Everyone will want a nuclear power station in his backyard
for the entire world to switch to EV.

 

[MattRoxx]

This prediction seems more reasonable:

Electric vehicles are still rare sightings on most roads today. But in a couple of decades, more than a third of all passenger cars will run on batteries — not on gasoline or diesel, analysts say.

Around 530 million electric vehicles could zip quietly along the world's streets and highways by 2040, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) said on Thursday in a new report. That's up from roughly 2 million electric cars today.

When it comes to new car sales, battery-powered vehicles will make up 54 percent of the market, compared to just a tiny fraction now, according to BNEF. The forecast is much more aggressive than 2016's outlook, which saw electric cars accounting for about one-third of new sales by 2040.

"The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago," analysts said Thursday in a press release.
Such a dramatic change in the global auto market would have huge benefits for the climate — especially as wind turbines and solar panels provide a rising share of the electricity needed to recharge batteries. If a third of electric cars are electric, that'd displace around 8 million barrels of transportation fuel per day, BNEF said.

Analysts said their stronger forecast was due to two key reasons.

First, automakers are doubling down on commitments to produce electric passenger cars. Need proof? Look no further than this week's headlines.

Volvo on Wednesday said that starting in 2019, all the models it introduces will be either hybrids or powered solely by batteries, making it the first mainstream automaker to "sound the death knell of the internal combustion engine," the New York Times reported.
A day later, France's government announced an ambitious plan to stop all domestic sales of gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2040. Tesla, the electric automaker led by Elon Musk, announced its mass-market, all-electric Model 3 would start rolling off production lines this week.

And second, lithium-ion battery costs are falling much faster than expected thanks to improving technology and increased supply. That means electric cars will not only be cleaner than petroleum-powered vehicles but also cheaper in most countries — as early as 2025.

"We see a momentous inflection point for the global auto industry in the second half of the 2020s," Colin McKerracher, BNEF's lead advanced transport analyst, said in a statement.

 

[The "Bone" Ranger]

Lithium batteries sitting on a shelf have almost no self discharging,...in a electric car,...considering the huge capacity they have,...and all they have to do is maintain a computer,...my guess is years, at the very least.

after reading your post I did some research and the Tesla vehicles do lose charge every day as reported by owners - assuming someone like me fills up every two weeks (I have more than one vehicle) the power loss in the battery would be very noticeable

 

[oil&gas]

Battery charge loss of parked vehicles has been placed between
3 to18 miles per 24 hrs from what I've read.

 

[FAST]

Surprised to hear about the high drain from the 'electric car' batteries, wouldn't have thought backing up a computer would consume that much.

Learn something new every day.

 

[GameBoy27]

Update:

Petrol engines? So yesterday, says Volvo
Swedish car-maker says all of its cars from 2019 will be fully electric, or hybrid

The Volvo Car Group said on Wednesday all new models launched from 2019 will be fully electric or hybrids, spelling the eventual end to nearly a century of Volvos powered solely by the internal combustion engine.
The Gothenburg-based company will continue to produce pure combustion-engine Volvos from models launched before that date, but said it would introduce cars across its model line-up that ranged from fully electric cars to plug-in hybrids.
Volvo’s plans make it the first major traditional automaker to set a date for the complete phase-out of combustion-engine-only models.

Volvo has a distinct advantage over other manufacturers, in that they use 4 cylinder engines with turbo and supercharged versions. Other companies have many more types which makes it more costly to switch them over to hybrids.

 

[FAST]

Volvo has a distinct advantage over other manufacturers, in that they use 4 cylinder engines with turbo and supercharged versions. Other companies have many more types which makes it more costly to switch them over to hybrids.

Yep,...which means they will still use the same basic petrol engine for their hybrids.

 

[fuji]

after reading your post I did some research and the Tesla vehicles do lose charge every day as reported by owners - assuming someone like me fills up every two weeks (I have more than one vehicle) the power loss in the battery would be very noticeable

Assuming you park for an extended time without plugging in.

 

[oil&gas]

Will The EV Hype Actually Help The Oil Business?

Peter Tertzakian
July 13, 2017

Last week’s announcement by Volvo that every car, “it launches from 2019 will have an electric motor,” jolted oil investors.

Then France amped up the newswire by switching on a ban: No more combustion car sales by 2040. To cap off a trilogy of electric vehicle (EV) proclamations, Elon Musk lit up the twitter feed with a photo of Tesla Motor’s first Model 3 production car.

Oil companies and investors should take note. These announcements are impacting the industry and will increasingly do so. But it’s not because electric cords are going to replace pump hoses anytime soon.

The demand for oil is as robust as it’s ever been, thanks to barrels that are priced 60 percentage lower than they were three years ago; the linkage of petroleum to the world economy is actually strengthening not weakening.

But it doesn’t matter. EV mania is affecting the psychology of investors who finance oil assets, services and infrastructure. Fog lights of reason are finding it increasingly difficult to see the future of oil past 2020, because a cloud of uncertainty is thickening around long-term demand.

The result of all this next-decade confusion is that less money is going to be flowing into the oil business.

Increasingly, investors will expect a premium return for long-term projects and their money will discriminate with higher tolerance. It’s all Darwinian; the natural selection imposed by investors will seek visionary management, quality assets, fast payback, profitability at lower cost, and innovative new processes to facilitate operating at lower prices. It’s already happening and the selection criteria are likely to tighten over the next few years.

The EV revolution is no longer a Tesla curiosity. By 2020 most automakers will be parading their offerings of pure electric or hybrid models. Some will even follow Volvo’s bold move to divorce pistons in favor of rotating magnets. And it’s probable that more western countries will follow France’s ban. Each new announcement will bring more fantastic predictions about the imminent demise of the oil industry, increasing the uncertainty about how wheels are going to turn.

Even now, the mainstream narrative seems convinced that the end of oil is nigh. More and more armchair analysts ask me rhetorically, “Looks like the petroleum business is finished, eh?”

“Really?” I say with an understanding nod. But then my instinct for real-time market research kicks in. I volley a return question, “Have you bought an electric car or hybrid?”

The answer is predictably, “No,” even though hybrids have been around for almost 20 years and mainstream EVs from Nissan, BMW and Tesla have been around since 2010.

I bought a Tesla six months ago and have been driving it routinely since. I love it. Silent, smooth and efficient, I’m a believer that the electric mode of transportation is a no-brainer for city driving. But that’s just me, a habitual technology adopter.

Broad sales momentum for alternative vehicles is still tepid to-date. There was a linear ramp-up in the US market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) between 2013 and mid-2014 when oil prices were over $100/B. But sales over the past three years have struggled to gain convincing momentum (see Figure 1). Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are starting to trend up, but volumes are small.

China is three times the auto market of the US. It’s demonstrating a greater propensity to adopt EVs, due to demographics, exhaust pollution and government subsidies. But even there the monthly sales are still choppy.

An exponential ramp in global EV sales is needed to be persuasive. Undoubtedly, the trend will tick up again after we see a greater diversity of mainstream models like the Tesla Model 3 and whatever companies like Volvo, Audi, BYD and many other automakers come up with. But fast adoption is not a given. Cheap oil prices and the utility of the internal combustion engine have long been a strong tag team against assaults on their market share.

So, we are living in an energy world of contradictions. The clutch is completely disengaged between the consumer trends we see today (growing use of cheap oil and sparse EV penetration), and conjectures about tomorrow (the imminent demise of oil).

So what’s going to happen over the next few years? Here are two possible outcomes as a result of greater EV sales and headline momentum:

1. A tightening of capital will clean out oil’s inefficient producers. The progressive wing of the industry, mostly located in North America, will innovate even more aggressively to lower their costs. Technology leaders within the business will do very well and be battle hardened to handle any potential demand moderation in the 2020s. Oil prices will stay low with ample supply, making the consumer decision to switch to EVs more difficult; or,

2. Shrinking capital investment into the industry will result in oil supply constraints. Declining production will drive the price of oil higher again, after bloated inventories clear in the next couple of years. The advent of higher oil prices will be a catalyst for faster EV adoption, around the same time that more model diversity becomes available. Low-cost oil producers that are aggressively innovating today will benefit from their call option on the higher prices.

Volvo and other EV manufacturers should hope for the latter

Ironically, progressive oil companies will do well under both scenarios.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-hype-actually-help-oil-220000751.html

 

[lomotil]

As usual, France has delusions of grandeur and very well may have egg on their face(s) if battery technology doesn't improve exponentially long before 2040. How will the energy to charge these batteries be generated and how will the expired batteries be disposed off?

 

[The "Bone" Ranger]

I was talking about the charge dissipation from the battery just sitting around (as happens with cellular phones that have Lithium batteries as well) - carbon was generated to produce the electricity to charge the battery of the electric vehicle but never got used cause it was just sitting around, not good for the environment.

Assuming you park for an extended time without plugging in.

Surprised to hear about the high drain from the 'electric car' batteries, wouldn't have thought backing up a computer would consume that much.

Learn something new every day.

 

[FAST]

I was talking about the charge dissipation from the battery just sitting around (as happens with cellular phones that have Lithium batteries as well) - carbon was generated to produce the electricity to charge the battery of the electric vehicle but never got used cause it was just sitting around, not good for the environment.

Agreed,...but just don't bring up reality,...which some here like to ignore.

Anyway,...just plug it in,...oh wait,...that means more carbon generated.

You are correct,...carbon is being generated with nothing in return,...but some here have trouble with logic.

 

[FAST]

As usual, France has delusions of grandeur and very well may have egg on their face(s) if battery technology doesn't improve exponentially long before 2040. How will the energy to charge these batteries be generated and how will the expired batteries be disposed off?

Agreed,...like I have already posted,...each single horse power is roughly equivalent to 750 watts,...which has to be replaced AND delivered to every single car owner,...but no problem for the pie in the sky brigade.

 

[fuji]

I was talking about the charge dissipation from the battery just sitting around (as happens with cellular phones that have Lithium batteries as well) - carbon was generated to produce the electricity to charge the battery of the electric vehicle but never got used cause it was just sitting around, not good for the environment.

Carbon was only generated to charge the battery if the power was produced by coal or natural gas, and even in those cases the plants are far more carbon efficient than an ICE. Net it's a huge reduction in emissions especially in places with nuclear or hydro power but even in those with carbon based plants.

Cutting out the refinery and the ICE more than makes up for losses from transmission and dissipation.

 

[The "Bone" Ranger]

. Net it's a huge reduction in emissions especially in places with nuclear or hydro power but even in those with carbon based plants.

.

I am not convinced about that as I lack the info to make such a determination, there are many moving parts to the equation including the enormous amount of batteries required for these suckers...at the end of the day it is still electricity being wasted which would have not been produced unless the demand was there.

 

[FAST]

I am not convinced about that as I lack the info to make such a determination, there are many moving parts to the equation including the enormous amount of batteries required for these suckers...at the end of the day it is still electricity being wasted which would have not been produced unless the demand was there.

The Tesla battery pac, depending on the model,... can have almost 7000 cells, each one about the capacity of the battery I use in my EDF radio controlled jet,...so YA,...a lot of parts.

And again, yes you are correct,...electricity is being wasted, which also means carbon is produced to replace it.

 

[GameBoy27]

Carbon was only generated to charge the battery if the power was produced by coal or natural gas, and even in those cases the plants are far more carbon efficient than an ICE. Net it's a huge reduction in emissions especially in places with nuclear or hydro power but even in those with carbon based plants.

Cutting out the refinery and the ICE more than makes up for losses from transmission and dissipation.

Don't count on "clean" nuclear as an energy source for powering EVs. In case you haven't heard...

Following the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany has permanently shut down eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022. Italy voted overwhelmingly to keep their country non-nuclear. Switzerland and Spain have banned the construction of new reactors. Japan’s prime minister has called for a dramatic reduction in Japan’s reliance on nuclear power. Taiwan’s president did the same. Shinzō Abe, the new prime minister of Japan since December 2012, announced a plan to re-start some of the 54 Japanese nuclear power plants (NPPs) and to continue some NPP sites under construction.

As of 2016, countries including Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, and Portugal have no nuclear power stations and remain opposed to nuclear power. Belgium, Germany, Spain and Switzerland are phasing-out nuclear power. Globally, more nuclear power reactors have closed than opened in recent years but overall capacity has increased.

Italy is the only country that has closed all of functioning nuclear plants. Lithuania, Kazakhstan have shut down their only nuclear plants, but plan to built new ones to replace them. Armenia shut down its only nuclear plant but subsequently restarted it. Austria never used its first nuclear plant that was completely built. Due to financial, politic and technical reasons Cuba, Libya, North Korea and Poland never completed the construction of their first nuclear plants (although North Korea and Poland plan to). Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ghana, Ireland, Kuwait, Oman, Peru, Singapore, Venezuela have planned, but not constructed their first nuclear plants. Between 2005 and 2015 the global production of nuclear power declined by 0.7%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out