October Smashes Temperature Records Practically Guaranteeing 2015 Will Be HottestYear

[Frankfooter]

You might want to check the terms of the bet a little more closely.

Sure, the terms are right here:

Ok bets on.
Using that NASA figure of 0.43ºC anomaly for 1995 and waiting for the 2015 NASA anomaly figures to come out.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ing-Point%92&p=5243530&viewfull=1#post5243530

And lets remember:
Our bet is on the projection based off a 1995 start, using the IPCC decadal projections.
Its now 0.0027ºC off from being perfect, yet you still idiotically claim that its 'spectacularly wrong'.

 

[Frankfooter]

Hey Moviefan, time for the correct November update.
I had a rough number out for November's anomaly, but NASA just published November's findings so we can use that now.

The numbers are here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

2015 81 87 90 73 78 77 73 77 82 106 105
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

That puts the year's anomaly at:
0.84ºC

Which means that the IPCC and I are winning the bet.
The IPCC is spectacularly accurate.

And in the interest of fairness, I will also offer you the same deal you offered me.
You can settle now, if you're brave enough (as you ridiculously liked to say)

Cluck, cluck, little chicken.

 

[AK-47]

I honestly have no clue what you guys are arguing about anymore

 

[Frankfooter]

I honestly have no clue what you guys are arguing about anymore

To recap:

I bet Moviefan that the IPCC's projections would be accurate over a 20 year period. He waffled around and finally agreed to use 1995 as the start year, which was reported at 0.43ºC global anomaly by NASA. So we bet on whether or not the IPCC's 0.2ºC increase per decade would be accurate or whether the global anomaly would hit 0.83ºC for 2015 (0.43ºC plus 0.4º increase). NASA reported the global anomaly for 2014 at 0.74ºC, so moviefan thought the bet safe. Unfortunately for him and the world, he's losing.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ing-Point%92&p=5243530&viewfull=1#post5243530

 

[Moviefan-2]

And in the interest of fairness, I will also offer you the same deal you offered me.
You can settle now, if you're brave enough (as you ridiculously liked to say)

Works for me.

One condition -- if we agree to settle now, that means we're settling now. There's no changing your mind or deciding after the fact that you want to wait for more information or change the terms of the bet.

You confirm you want to settle now and we settle now. Depending on the time of your response, I will post the full results either tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Frankfooter]

Works for me.

One condition -- if we agree to settle now, that means we're settling now. There's no changing your mind or deciding after the fact that you want to wait for more information or change the terms of the bet.

You confirm you want to settle now and we settle now. Depending on the time of your response, I will post the full results either tonight or tomorrow.

Lets confirm the details of the bet first, since I expect you are going to try to weasel out by trying to claim some nonsense about previous data.
This is the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

We bet on that figure for the end of the year.
Ready to settle on the year's global anomaly?
Ready to settle on that figure?

 

[Moviefan-2]

Lets confirm the details of the bet first, since I expect you are going to try to weasel out by trying to claim some nonsense about previous data.
This is the bet:


We bet on that figure for the end of the year.
Ready to settle on the year's global anomaly?
Ready to settle on that figure?

We will settle according to the terms of the bet that were agreed to on May 11, 2015.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ing-Point%92&p=5243530&viewfull=1#post5243530

Remember...

I'm content to honour the bet as we made it.

I'll hold you to that.

I'm sure you will.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=5365706#post5365706

I didn't see a clear response to my previous post. If we settle now, that means we're settling now.

Confirm that you're agreeing to settle today and we will settle today.

 

[Frankfooter]

I knew you were going to try to weasel out of the bet, what else can I expect from someone who lies about reports so often and repeatedly uses uses fake charts.

This is the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

You agreed to bet on whether the global anomaly would hit 0.83ºC for 2015.
That is the bet.

Confirm that you are honouring the bet and we can settle up today.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Confirm that you are honouring the bet and we can settle up today.

I don't know what you think is in dispute but I already told you that I will honour the terms that we agreed to on May 11, 2015, and that I will hold you to those terms.

Since we have already agreed to the terms of the bet, I don't intend to negotiate the terms. Nor do I intend to debate the results until you confirm that we're settling.

Yes or no: Do you want to settle up today or not?

 

[Frankfooter]

I don't know what you think is in dispute but I already told you that I will honour the terms that we agreed to on May 11, 2015, and that I will hold you to those terms.

Since we have already agreed to the terms of the bet, I don't intend to negotiate the terms. Nor do I intend to debate the results until you confirm that we're settling.

Yes or no: Do you want to settle up today or not?

Yes lets settle up on the bet on whether 2015's global temperature anomaly would hit 0.83ºC today.
This is the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

You agreed to bet on whether the global anomaly would hit 0.83ºC for 2015.
That is the bet, any whining about how we came to calculate the number 0.83 is just that, whining.
The bet was on 0.83ºC.

Agreed?

 

[Moviefan-2]

Yes or no: Do you want to settle up today or not?

All I need is a yes or no answer. There's no need for you to try to reopen the terms by putting qualifiers on your answer.

 

[Frankfooter]

Yes or no: Do you want to settle up today or not?

All I need is a yes or no answer. There's no need for you to try to reopen the terms by putting qualifiers on your answer.

I'm not putting a qualifier on the bet.
I agree lets settle up on the bet today on whether or not NASA's data says that the years global anomaly is 0.83ºC.
Agreed.

Lets settle.

 

[Moviefan-2]

I'm not putting a qualifier on the bet.
I agree lets settle up on the bet today on whether or not NASA's data says that the years global anomaly is 0.83ºC.

LOL.

We'll add "qualifiers" to the list of words that Franky doesn't understand.

 

[Frankfooter]

LOL.

We'll add "qualifiers" to the list of words that Franky doesn't understand.

This isn't a 'qualifier', its the fricking bet.
Lets settle up on the bet today on whether or not NASA's data says that the years global anomaly would hit 0.83ºC.

Lets settle.

 

[Frankfooter]

Well moviefan?

cluck, cluck, cluck, as you like to say.

Lets settle up on the bet today on whether or not NASA's data says that the years global anomaly would hit 0.83ºC.

 

[Moviefan-2]

And in the interest of fairness, I will also offer you the same deal you offered me.
You can settle now, if you're brave enough (as you ridiculously liked to say)

Cluck, cluck, little chicken.

Works for me.

One condition -- if we agree to settle now, that means we're settling now. There's no changing your mind or deciding after the fact that you want to wait for more information or change the terms of the bet.

You confirm you want to settle now and we settle now. Depending on the time of your response, I will post the full results either tonight or tomorrow.

Lets confirm the details of the bet first....

I think it's clear who the "chicken" is. :thumb:

There is nothing to "confirm". The details of the bet were clear when I set them back in May, and Franky and I both agreed to them.

Nor is there any reason to include a rewrite of the bet in the proposals to settle. We already have commitments to honour the agreed upon terms.

I'm content to honour the bet as we made it.

I don't know what you think is in dispute but I already told you that I will honour the terms that we agreed to on May 11, 2015, and that I will hold you to those terms.

The fact that Franky wants to "confirm the details" or keeps asking if we're "agreed" to his rewrite of the wording of the bet convinces me that he's going to welch on the bet.

Regardless, two days is more than enough time to make a decision. I don't see the point in spending any more time trying to get Franky to commit to settling early.

 

[Frankfooter]

The fact that Franky wants to "confirm the details" or keeps asking if we're "agreed" to his rewrite of the wording of the bet convinces me that he's going to welch on the bet.

Regardless, two days is more than enough time to make a decision. I don't see the point in spending any more time trying to get Franky to commit to settling early.

Its you that keeps waffling here, I've said lets settle right now repeatedly.
What's keeping you?

cluck, cluck, little chicken.

 

[AK-47]

You guys need an objective referee. Tell me the exact parameters of the bet and I'll act as your ref.

I'll try to be as honest and neutral as I can

 

[Frankfooter]

You guys need an objective referee. Tell me the exact parameters of the bet and I'll act as your ref.

I'll try to be as honest and neutral as I can

Well that disqualifies you.
Next?

C'mon moviefan.
Cluck cluck little chicken.

 

[AK-47]

Well that disqualifies you

Not true. I have repeatedly said I'm unsure if global warming is as bad as "experts" say it is, but I wont rule it out completely either.
Go through my posts.

It sounds like you're chickening out, Franky. Lay down parameters of the bet and I'll be the ref