October Smashes Temperature Records Practically Guaranteeing 2015 Will Be HottestYear

[fuji]

I now have a better idea what you were getting at in your previous post, but you've misunderstood the point I was making.

I wasn't making any kind of argument about the temperature difference from 1995 to 2014, or how it should be applied to me. I've never disputed that there was warming in the late 1990s (the 21st century is another matter).

As I said in my response to AK-47, the point I was making was that NASA's graphs had been completely changed.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/ersst4vs3b/

Thus, to keep the bet alive, I was proposing that the bet should also be adjusted.

Given that the NASA/NOAA changes were messy (the adjustments for recent years were nearly double the adjustments for the 1990s), I cited the numbers above to explain my calculations for the new bet that I was proposing.

Sure, but you are defacto admitting that since 1995 there has been, on average, the predicted 0.40 degree warming. Regardless of whether that invalidates your bet with groggy, I can't see how you continue the debate now that you have acknowledged the macro level warming prediction is accurate.

Clearly it was a silly bet to begin with since the warming trend is only evident over long time periods and progresses in fits and starts, with no warming at all for stretches of years before reverting to the predicted curve.

I think it is clear to everyone that global warming has been validated, and even clear to you.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Sure, but you are defacto admitting that since 1995 there has been, on average, the predicted 0.40 degree warming.

Nonsense.

The Earth's temperature in 2015 is still well short of the 0.40 degree average -- even using NASA's dubious numbers -- and this is a super El Nino year.

The reality is that if the predictions had been accurate, the Earth's temperature this year would have been well in excess of the predicted average. That was certainly the situation in 1998.

Yet it is nowhere near that point. It isn't even at the predicted level.

As I have said before, the IPCC's predictions have been consistently and spectacularly wrong throughout the 21st century, and always well above the actual observed temperatures.

 

[Moviefan-2]

...with no warming at all for stretches of years....

Unfortunately, that's not what the IPCC predicted. In fact, the IPCC confirmed in its most recent 2013 report that 97 per cent of the model runs got it wrong (and the only three of the 114 that got it right had predicted stagnant temperatures).

 

[Moviefan-2]

Franky, just make him a new bet on temperatures for 2016. Then we'll revisit this thread on January 1st 2017

In fairness to Frankfooter, there's a very real possibility the Earth's temperature is going to experience a massive drop once the super El Nino ends.

 

[Moviefan-2]

This is where you have been caught out.
We bet on the year's anomaly, you found you were losing and tried to weasel out and change the bet.

Actually, according to the terms of the bet, I was the clear winner once NASA announced it would no longer be updating the graph that we bet on.

As the winner, there was no reason for me to "weasel out" of anything. I proposed the updated bet because I was trying to demonstrate a bigger point.

But you have made it clear that the terms of the May 11, 2015 bet must stand.

The final results have been posted: https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...e-bet-on-global-warming&p=5429544#post5429544

All subsequent questions about the bet will be addressed on the official thread.

 

[AK-47]

As if this hasn't been boring enough for one year.....
Besides, moviefan would just try to pull the same shit when he loses again

Now it sounds like YOU are trying to weasel out of any future bets

 

[Moviefan-2]

Now it sounds like YOU are trying to weasel out of any future bets

He already weaseled out of the bet we made last year (possibly in a thread that you started) about the IPCC's 2007 prediction for the next 10 years. That was the original bet, which I had made when he was posting as Groggy.

In May of this year, he pretended to be a different person and tried to rewrite the bet so that it would be determined based on past results (??).

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...The-Global-Warming-%91Tipping-Point%92/page22

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ing-Point%92&p=5242674&viewfull=1#post5242674

(By the way, I'm guessing you're now grateful that the responsibility for analyzing the results wasn't handed over to you: https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...e-bet-on-global-warming&p=5429544#post5429544). :biggrin1:

 

[AK-47]

Haha.....most grateful

 

[Frankfooter]

Nonsense.

The Earth's temperature in 2015 is still well short of the 0.40 degree average -- even using NASA's dubious numbers -- and this is a super El Nino year.

False, even with your cheating 'adjusted' number of 0.86ºC, that puts the IPCC off only by 0.0015 from the present temperature. If December is as warm as November the 2015 global anomaly will hit your cheating 'adjusted' goal as well.

 

[Frankfooter]

Actually, according to the terms of the bet, I was the clear winner once NASA announced it would no longer be updating the graph that we bet on.

Bullshit.
Its the same chart that they will update at the end of the year.
You are just whining that they updated and revised some earlier data.


This was the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

And what do those numbers now read?

0.84ºC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
You lost the bet.
Time to pay up.
Stop whining.

 

[FAST]

Bullshit.

You are just whining that they updated and revised some earlier data.

YEP,...that would make it BULL SHIT,...wouldn't it.

FAST

 

[Moviefan-2]

YEP,...that would make it BULL SHIT,...wouldn't it.

FAST

Yes, I should really stop "whining" about the fact that I won the bet.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...e-bet-on-global-warming&p=5429544#post5429544

I didn't realize I was whining. I thought I was bragging. :biggrin1:

 

[Moviefan-2]

Its the same chart that they will update at the end of the year.

It sure doesn't look the same.

And if it's the same chart, how come it has different reported anomalies for 2014?

 

[Frankfooter]

It sure doesn't look the same.

First, that's not the chart we bet on, that one is here:
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

Second, of course it changed, they added new info.
What, were you expecting that we'd stick with a chart from 2014 to judge a bet about 2015's temperatures?
That's just really stooooopid.
Stooooopid.

Stop whining and pay up.


This was the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

And what do those numbers now read?

0.84ºC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
You lost the bet.
Time to pay up.
Stop whining.

 

[Moviefan-2]

First, that's not the chart we bet on....

You really are clueless.

For your information, the one on the left is the one we bet on. That's why it has the exact same numbers as the one in our bet.

Once again, you don't even understand your own graphs.

Getting back to the point -- you do agree that those two graphs are not the same. Don't you?

 

[Frankfooter]

You really are clueless.

For your information, the one on the left is the one we bet on.

No, those are different representations of the data from different dates, neither of which show 2015's global anomaly.
Which is why neither of those charts are the ones we bet on.

The chart we bet on will be published here with 2015's anomaly.
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

I was happy to wait until Jan or so for them to update the chart, however you were keen to settle the bet early so we are settling the bet early using the data that NASA uses to make that chart, available below.
And according to that data the year's anomaly has already hit 0.84ºC, well over the 0.83ºC we bet on.
You lost the bet.

Time for you to stop whining and pay up.
Loser.


This was the bet:

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

And what do those numbers now read?

0.84ºC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
You lost the bet.
Time to pay up.
Stop whining.

 

[fuji]

Nonsense.

The Earth's temperature in 2015 is still well short of the 0.40 degree average -- even using NASA's dubious numbers -- and this is a super El Nino year.

The reality is that if the predictions had been accurate, the Earth's temperature this year would have been well in excess of the predicted average. That was certainly the situation in 1998.

Yet it is nowhere near that point. It isn't even at the predicted level.

As I have said before, the IPCC's predictions have been consistently and spectacularly wrong throughout the 21st century, and always well above the actual observed temperatures.

By the numbers you posted, it is not well short. It is maybe a fifth of a degree short.

This thread is now ridiculous, with Frankengroggy doing his usual cut and paste spam, which absolutely ruins the discussion and for which he should likely be banned, and you tap dancing like crazy around the numbers.

 

[Frankfooter]

Moviefan, its time to stop pretending that you are allowed to change your bets mid way through once you see you are losing.

I was proposing that the bet should also be adjusted.

Just own up that you lost the bet.
Be a man.

Admit that the IPCC is smarter then you and that their projections are quite good.
Its time to admit that everything you've claimed about climate change is false.

There was no pause.
The IPCC's science and projections are good.

Own up and admit you lost.

You bet that the global anomaly wouldn't hit 0.83ºC this year.
Now its 0.84, you lost.