Is WW3 coming ?

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BlueLaser

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kinda ironic since the US needed China's help druing WW2 to fight against Japan...oh how times have changed..
They also needed Russia's help to fight Germany. They asked for French help against England and now pretty much just laugh and make jokes about the French while England is one of the US's closest allies.
 

BlueLaser

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Absence of power. Russians gathered about 40K most combat-ready troops on Ukrainian borders. It is a lot, but by the word of military experts absolutely not enough to occupy a quite large country with population of 40 millions. They can enter and occupy some areas of Ukraine, they can probably even march to Kiev and take it, but than what?

And no, NATO will not send troops to fight Russian because as it means a nuclear warfare.

And to the topic: No, WW3 is not coming. For WW3 to happen Russia has to have some allies, but the Russia is absolutely alone. It can be World vs Russia, but unlikely.

BTW, those, who thinks about China & Russia. Chinese troop are specifically trained and geared-up to fight... Russian forces. China has an eye on Russian territories, which are now populated (illegally) by Chinese. And by taking the Crimea Russian showed an example... Dangerous example.


And to the question: "What the hell is going on in Russia?"
My personal take on it...
Putin is tired to play democracy, even pretend to play. Because it does not guarantee absolute personal power. Chinese governing model does not guarantee absolute PERSONAL power. But North Korean - does. Putin building new North Korea, where the main component of the regime - isolation for the outside world for the country's populations. Putin does everything to isolate his country form influence of the outside world. Look at his every step, even today, when he banned import of food and closed Russian aerospace for Ukrainian flights. He has built very efficient and powerful propaganda machine, and while his support among Russians is at all times high he can cut-off all links with the world and enjoy absolute personal power without any influence from anywhere. Pretty much like in North Korea.
Just because two nuclear powers are at war doesn't mean nuclear war is inevitable. The MAD theory applies. Do you think Putin is crazy enough to launch Nukes? I don't. Kim Jong Un maybe, but not Putin. As a former officer in a NATO military, I firmly believe NATO would step up to Ukraine's defence.
 

BlueLaser

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I will give you a hint. I speak fluent Russian.
Now it is my turn. Have you been to Ukraine or Russia, or did you draw your conclusions based on Russia Today reports?
Oagre likes to search specifically for anti-Russian news and lather it all over the place. He has no clue about Ukraine and has demonstrated his ignorance multiple times. The person reading the most propaganda here, is him. And he drinks it up like a fish.
 

Aardvark154

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If Russia invades Ukraine, will NATO send troops to fight Russians? If no, what's holding Russians back now?
I believe NATO absolutely would. I believe Russian believes NATO absolutely would.
I would certainly hope the Hell not! I've seen enough water go under the keel, and believe I have enough of a grasp of what is in the collective Canadian, American, British interest to state that risking the lives of the members of our Armed Forces or indeed a thermonuclear exchange for Ukraine, just isn't worth it!

As a former officer in a NATO military, I firmly believe NATO would step up to Ukraine's defence.
Interesting, (having like bona fides) because although I'm not at all sure that we aren't stupid enough to prove you correct, I certainly hope to God that we have greater sense than that! I just do not see going to war over Ukraine and particularly over Crimea as being in our strategic best interest!
 

mandrill

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Oagre likes to search specifically for anti-Russian news and lather it all over the place. He has no clue about Ukraine and has demonstrated his ignorance multiple times. The person reading the most propaganda here, is him. And he drinks it up like a fish.
Actually, Prehistoric appears to have very similar views to mine on Russian media, Blue Lazer. Re read his post. Al Cohol has already responded to your trolling of me on another thread. I'll leave it at that.

If you keep harassing me, I am going to involve the moderators and ask that you be suspended from the board. Please keep that in mind.
 

mandrill

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I believe NATO absolutely would. I believe Russian believes NATO absolutely would. The problem is that Russia has very few allies and an invasion doesn't help them. There's no point in occupying a country or you lack the political or military strength to annex. Besides, if Eastern Ukraine did manage to become part of Russia, they'd very quickly realize how they've been looking at it with rose-coloured glasses. It won't be the utopia they think it will. Prices in Crimea almost doubled overnight. Eastern Ukraine wouldn't be immune from the same economic changes. Their industries thrive right now because Russia has to trade with Ukraine. If Russia could just install a state-run business to run the businesses they need, Eastern Ukraine would get very little.

Russia needs Eastern Ukraine to separate by some method that the West can't dispute so that the annexation can't be disputed. "The will of the people" isn't something that democracy-loving USA and Europe can just publicly decide to ignore and decide isn't important. That's why Crimea wasn't so hotly contested. They know they can argue all they want, but at the end of the day, an actual, proper, monitored election in Crimea would have the same result.
They pretty much got that with the "referendum" in Lugansk and Donetsk that no one in the West took seriously. IMO, if Putin wanted the Donbas, he would have grabbed it already. He can set up his own war industries to replace the Ukrainian factories anytime he wants. It's arguable that he hasn't done that before only because he wanted economic leverage over Ukraine. He won't subsidize the coal mines. Even the most Russian nationalist of my FB buddies figures that occupying and subsidizing Eastern Ukraine would blow out the Russian budget, as Crimea has already done.

As far as the people in Eastern Ukraine being disillusioned with Russia, depends what they get to read and watch on TV. They sure as fuck hate Kiev a lot more now that the government troops are shelling them. And it's easy to block out that the government troops are just there because Russians and Chechens are in there posing as separatist patriots, if you've grown up disliking Kiev and liking Moscow. OTOH, the more perceptive have also figured out that Putin really doesn't give a fuck about them and that he is just playing his own game. He hasn't moved in his army. He hasn't intervened. He hasn't ushered them back into the great Russian nation. And the human rights record and conduct of the separatists is awful and news of that has probably spread around, at least to the brighter, more educated citizens.

AFA NATO directly getting involved in Ukraine, I doubt it. It's not a core issue for North Americans. More of a feel-good story that Russia is screwing up. Possibly if the current scenario continues for the next year, NATO may edge gradually into involvement. But right now, it's not do-able or thinkable.
 

Prehistoric

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Do you think Putin is crazy enough to launch Nukes? I don't. Kim Jong Un maybe, but not Putin. As a former officer in a NATO military, I firmly believe NATO would step up to Ukraine's defence.
Well, I believe that Putin wants the West to believe that he is crazy enough to launch nukes. He now plays the "no negotiations" game. And who knows where this game would bring him to.
BTW, today Ukrainian media reported, that Russian troops were to invade under peacekeepers flags (like they did in Georgia exactly 6 years ago) this very night. But diplomatic pressure from UN security council and US postponed the invasion. For now.
I sure hope that you are right and the West and NATO would step-up in case of Russian invasion, but I personnaly do not believe in that. In my humble opinion the West simply has no balls. It is ruled by bankers - not by politicians, and the bankers are always ready to sell their motherland for an extra dime.
But I hope that you are right, I just do not believe in it.
 

BlueLaser

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I would certainly hope the Hell not! I've seen enough water go under the keel, and believe I have enough of a grasp of what is in the collective Canadian, American, British interest to state that risking the lives of the members of our Armed Forces or indeed a thermonuclear exchange for Ukraine, just isn't worth it!

Interesting, (having like bona fides) because although I'm not at all sure that we aren't stupid enough to prove you correct, I certainly hope to God that we have greater sense than that! I just do not see going to war over Ukraine and particularly over Crimea as being in our strategic best interest!
Not for Crimea. Crimea is gone. Crimea is over. You don't think that the western nations would fight a war to stop the spread of an idealism they don't agree with? Cuba, Vietnam, War on Drugs, siding with Israel to keep Muslim states at bay... Letting Russia have Ukraine means telling Russia you have no limit. What's next? Armenia? Belarus? Estonia? Lithuania? You can't let a bully push you around.

War is a terrible thing. Nothing knows that more than people who have to fight it. But sometimes, war is worth it. At some point, you either halt the formation of an Empire or find yourself ruled by it. If you don't stand up to Russia against Ukraine, when do you? When it annexes Poland? When it moves on France? When the forces are across the channel in England? Or do you believe that a country that's going to invade another is willing to stop at one conquest?

Russia is scary big already. Give them more resources and more manpower and you could find yourself in a position where the superpowers lack the ability to keep them in check while simultaneously containing the minor squabbles of the world.
 

BlueLaser

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Actually, Prehistoric appears to have very similar views to mine on Russian media, Blue Lazer. Re read his post. Al Cohol has already responded to your trolling of me on another thread. I'll leave it at that.

If you keep harassing me, I am going to involve the moderators and ask that you be suspended from the board. Please keep that in mind.
And some people share my view. What's your point? If one person agrees with you, you must be right? As for Al Cohol's comment on trolling, he like you obviously missed the point I was making. I'll rephrase everything so it's clearer. I said, "There's a guy on your street that owns a red Ferrari." You said, "I am an unaware of any red Ferrari's on my street." I showed you a picture of it parked in front of your neighbour's house. You said, "Yes, I'm aware of that red Ferrari." I said, "I'm confused, you don't know of any red Ferrari's on your street, but you know your neighbour has one?" You said, "Why are you obtuse?" Al Cohol said, "Maybe he's trolling you." I wasn't trolling. I was pointing out that you simultaneously claimed you didn't know of any thriving defense industry in Eastern Ukraine while claiming you were fully aware of the thriving defense industry in Eastern Ukraine. When I called you on it, you called me obtuse, accused me of trolling, and said you were blocking me. Just because you were either being evasive, lacked comprehension or I wasn't clear doesn't mean I was trolling.

As for "Harassment"... You may want to look up that definition. I'm giving my opinion, which is backed up by the fact that you only ever post stories from one side of the debate. And you ignore the evidence that contradicts them. For example, you love the article that says the Russian media was reporting MH17 was full of dead bodies. You ignored the follow-up posts I made that cited the sources, where a pro-Western media source correctly said that a reputable state-run news site carried the story with a link, and that link revealed a state-run news agency that wrote a story that said "Look at this crazy conspiracy theory" and linked to a well-known tabloid.

You don't understand Ukrainian, you don't understand Russian, and you blindly trust the sources you read. You ignore the other sources. I call you biased there. I say you're falling for propaganda.

You say I'm biased. You say I'm falling for propaganda. So tell me, if me saying you're falling for pro-West propaganda is harassment and makes me worthy of being banned, shouldn't you be banned for accusing me of falling for pro-Russian propaganda?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Make your threats, tell the mods. If they decide to ban me, so be it. That will be their decision. But I don't really see what I've done wrong here. I gave my opinion about you the same way you gave your opinion about me. If that constitutes harassment, we're both equally guilty.
 

GPIDEAL

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Hits the nail on the head. Russian media are state-owned and state-controlled. While Western media may push an agenda, they at least attempt to portray genuine and real news in a sort of accurate and realistic way. (Well, maybe not so much Fox News).

But Russian media fabricates its own news events each day to push the Kremlin's agenda and happily goes about hiring actors to play the parts of interviewees or else scouring out old news footage from news events of the past to illustrate the fake and fictional news that Russian media is pushing that day.

This is notorious and has been commented on in all Western media on the topic. There is even a news service which provides weekly updates on the current fake Russian TV news stories, which actors are used and which old footage is adapted. Honestly. I can post the link for this service, if you want.

Oagre, I would like that fake news link please for someone else's benefit.
 

BlueLaser

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They pretty much got that with the "referendum" in Lugansk and Donetsk that no one in the West took seriously. IMO, if Putin wanted the Donbas, he would have grabbed it already. He can set up his own war industries to replace the Ukrainian factories anytime he wants. It's arguable that he hasn't done that before only because he wanted economic leverage over Ukraine. He won't subsidize the coal mines. Even the most Russian nationalist of my FB buddies figures that occupying and subsidizing Eastern Ukraine would blow out the Russian budget, as Crimea has already done.

As far as the people in Eastern Ukraine being disillusioned with Russia, depends what they get to read and watch on TV. They sure as fuck hate Kiev a lot more now that the government troops are shelling them. And it's easy to block out that the government troops are just there because Russians and Chechens are in there posing as separatist patriots, if you've grown up disliking Kiev and liking Moscow. OTOH, the more perceptive have also figured out that Putin really doesn't give a fuck about them and that he is just playing his own game. He hasn't moved in his army. He hasn't intervened. He hasn't ushered them back into the great Russian nation. And the human rights record and conduct of the separatists is awful and news of that has probably spread around, at least to the brighter, more educated citizens.

AFA NATO directly getting involved in Ukraine, I doubt it. It's not a core issue for North Americans. More of a feel-good story that Russia is screwing up. Possibly if the current scenario continues for the next year, NATO may edge gradually into involvement. But right now, it's not do-able or thinkable.
They have referendums that were a lot sketchier than the ones in Crimea, in a region not as hotly contested, and the issue of those referendums was independence, not to be rejoined with Russia. The entire vote was a different issue.

Again, I KNOW Eastern Ukraine. Most of the people there, especially the younger generation fresh out of University, think Russia is the greatest and Russia is the answer. They think they will join with Russia and see massive economic growth because they won't be limited in their productions. They think Russia will take a smaller cut than corrupt Ukraine did. None of that is true. They will absolutely be disillusioned. There's no if's and's or but's about it, and that isn't from a few fb people who based on your descriptions are obviously nutbars that represent a fringe of society.

NATO can choose to do nothing, and choose to demonstrate it's obsolete. If nothing else, it would be ignoring a defence treaty they made with Ukraine. How long can a defence alliance last after it stops honouring defense agreements? Put it another way, Canada used to be the world's biggest supporter of peacekeeping. If there was a peacekeeping mission, Canadians were involved, usually forming the bulk. Now, we have 21 total peacekeepers out in the field. Only in Canada by Canadians are we still viewed as the world's peacekeepers. We were a "peacekeeping country" that stopped peacekeeping. We're no longer a peacekeeping country. If a defence alliance stops coming to defend the places it's agreed to, it stops being a defence alliance.

The Budapest Memorandum was quite clear. Point 1: respect the sovereignty and existing borders. Point 2: refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukriane.

Some have argued Russia violated 1 with Crimea, except that Crimea was an independent region under the administration of Ukraine, and so it's arguable if they broke it. Not to mention Russia denies going in there. But if Russia flat out invades Ukraine, there's no grey area to hide in. Some with the economic tenets in the text of point 3. It's a grey area that at best both either violated or neither.

The truth is that the west stuck it's nose in Ukraine when the student protests began. Economically and otherwise. Whether you think it was "ok" for them to do it or not doesn't matter, they did it. They helped destabilize a nation and overthrow the elected government. Again, whether you think they had a right to or not doesn't matter, they did it. From a Russian standpoint, the West broke the Budapest Memorandum right there. That gives them every right to do the same - to support dissent. But the West didn't invade. And if either side does, I don't think the other side has any choice but to jump in. The political power that will be lost by sitting by and not responding will be costly to bear.

But then, I didn't think Canada would stop being peacekeepers either. Maybe I see the value in stopping the spread of a greedy, power-hungry nation before it can get started and just want to believe people care enough about fellow human beings to realize the treatment Ukrainians would face and be willing to stop it. But maybe they wouldn't. If Russia invades and NATO does nothing, I'll be very sad. But at the end of the day, I'll know the decision to do nothing was a political one and not a military one, because I know for a fact that the upper echelon in the western nations wouldn't want to see overt Russian aggression proceed unchecked. The fact is, I'd feel the same the other way. If Europe invaded Ukraine, even if the objective was to help beat back the Russian insurgents, I'd be sad if Russia didn't step up. Ukraine needs to find it's own path. Being forced one way or the other won't stop the problem. Military force in Ukraine would create the rift we've seen elsewhere, like Bosnia or Albania. The people in Ukraine need to find a way to compromise and work out there differences. That's why I have a problem with the western support of the student protests. They had an agenda, and that agenda has lead to civil war because it took one side and propelled them into the position of power over the others.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: neither side is doing right by Ukraine or Ukrainians. The west is just as responsible for the bullshit going on in Ukraine as Russia is, and the fact that world leaders continue to meet to discuss what Ukraine should do without involving the Ukrainian government is proof that everyone is looking at Ukraine as a toy to be fought after and played with. This shouldn't be a discussion about whether or not the West and Russia can share Ukraine, this should be a discussion of how Ukraine can find a way to get ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians to live in peace. You won't get that favoring one side over the other. You get that with compromise. And so far, Poroshenko has shown zero compromise. He's no different than the rebels showing zero compromise. The difference is that he's been elected to find a way to reach out and make it work, not drop bombs on cities and ask the west for aid.
 

Prehistoric

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Prehistoric

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Not for Crimea. Crimea is gone. Crimea is over. You don't think that the western nations would fight a war to stop the spread of an idealism they don't agree with? Cuba, Vietnam, War on Drugs, siding with Israel to keep Muslim states at bay... Letting Russia have Ukraine means telling Russia you have no limit. What's next? Armenia? Belarus? Estonia? Lithuania? You can't let a bully push you around.

War is a terrible thing. Nothing knows that more than people who have to fight it. But sometimes, war is worth it. At some point, you either halt the formation of an Empire or find yourself ruled by it. If you don't stand up to Russia against Ukraine, when do you? When it annexes Poland? When it moves on France? When the forces are across the channel in England? Or do you believe that a country that's going to invade another is willing to stop at one conquest?

Russia is scary big already. Give them more resources and more manpower and you could find yourself in a position where the superpowers lack the ability to keep them in check while simultaneously containing the minor squabbles of the world.
I completely agree with you on every point except for the Crimea. Yes, in short prospective it is gone, but the logistical and communication issues which brought Crimea to Ukraine in the first place are still there: no water for agriculture other than from Ukraine, no roads other that through Ukraine etc.

But I agree that the fate of Crimea is not currently on the table. But the fate of the Europe is. And not only Europe. Many Russians consider Alaska to be Russian land and think it being stolen by the US...
 

mandrill

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I completely agree with you on every point except for the Crimea. Yes, in short prospective it is gone, but the logistical and communication issues which brought Crimea to Ukraine in the first place are still there: no water for agriculture other than from Ukraine, no roads other that through Ukraine etc.

But I agree that the fate of Crimea is not currently on the table. But the fate of the Europe is. And not only Europe. Many Russians consider Alaska to be Russian land and think it being stolen by the US...
As always with the Kremlin, there are fake historical papers written by loyal pro Kremlin academics and fake magazine articles mis stating pretty much anything to Putin's benefit. And indeed, there are now academic papers alleging that the papers constituting the sale of Alaska to the USA were forged by Washington, or else never existed. Unfortunately, there appears to be an inexhaustible supply of gullible in Russia and also hatred of the West.
 

mandrill

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DONETSK, Ukraine - A humanitarian convoy accompanied by Russian military personnel and military vehicles advanced toward the Ukrainian border with the intention of crossing into the country late on Aug. 8, but it stopped short of the frontier, a senior Ukrainian official has said.

Speaking to a live audience on the "Shuster Live" TV news program, Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration Valeriy Chaly said the transit of the convoy could have provoked a full-scale war between the two countries. He did not say where the convoy had planned to enter the Ukrainian territory.

“Russia tried to make a serious provocation just a few hours ago tonight. This provocation could have resulted in an unpredictable development of events and escalation of threats,” Chaly said. "Through diplomatic work in the first place, the president of Ukraine stopped the provocation."

According to Chaly, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held an emergency meeting with security officials and communicated with world leaders about the incident.

He said Poroshenko had a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer. On behalf of the President, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin held talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, from whom he received assurances that the convoy "will stop," said Chaly.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry also warned that the convoy would have further inflamed tensions that already seem to be at fever pitch.

"Against the backdrop of repeated violations by the Russian side of the state border of Ukraine and arms, equipment and mercenaries in the Ukrainian side there are reasonable grounds to believe that the said convoy can be used to further escalate the tension and lead to further complication of the situation of residents of Donbass," read the ministry's statement.

The Russian action was presented to be in cooperation with the Red Cross, Chaly said. However, he and the Ukrainian news site Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Red Cross denied any involvement with the humanitarian convoy.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...rian-convoy-nearly-enters-ukraine-359967.html

Russian army attempts to crash the Ukrainian border and forcibly enter Ukraine, under a fake Red Cross sign and using "peace-keeper" insignia on its armoured vehicles. Presumably, just a scare tactic and not a real attempt to invade.
 
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