They pretty much got that with the "referendum" in Lugansk and Donetsk that no one in the West took seriously. IMO, if Putin wanted the Donbas, he would have grabbed it already. He can set up his own war industries to replace the Ukrainian factories anytime he wants. It's arguable that he hasn't done that before only because he wanted economic leverage over Ukraine. He won't subsidize the coal mines. Even the most Russian nationalist of my FB buddies figures that occupying and subsidizing Eastern Ukraine would blow out the Russian budget, as Crimea has already done.
As far as the people in Eastern Ukraine being disillusioned with Russia, depends what they get to read and watch on TV. They sure as fuck hate Kiev a lot more now that the government troops are shelling them. And it's easy to block out that the government troops are just there because Russians and Chechens are in there posing as separatist patriots, if you've grown up disliking Kiev and liking Moscow. OTOH, the more perceptive have also figured out that Putin really doesn't give a fuck about them and that he is just playing his own game. He hasn't moved in his army. He hasn't intervened. He hasn't ushered them back into the great Russian nation. And the human rights record and conduct of the separatists is awful and news of that has probably spread around, at least to the brighter, more educated citizens.
AFA NATO directly getting involved in Ukraine, I doubt it. It's not a core issue for North Americans. More of a feel-good story that Russia is screwing up. Possibly if the current scenario continues for the next year, NATO may edge gradually into involvement. But right now, it's not do-able or thinkable.
They have referendums that were a lot sketchier than the ones in Crimea, in a region not as hotly contested, and the issue of those referendums was independence, not to be rejoined with Russia. The entire vote was a different issue.
Again, I KNOW Eastern Ukraine. Most of the people there, especially the younger generation fresh out of University, think Russia is the greatest and Russia is the answer. They think they will join with Russia and see massive economic growth because they won't be limited in their productions. They think Russia will take a smaller cut than corrupt Ukraine did. None of that is true. They will absolutely be disillusioned. There's no if's and's or but's about it, and that isn't from a few fb people who based on your descriptions are obviously nutbars that represent a fringe of society.
NATO can choose to do nothing, and choose to demonstrate it's obsolete. If nothing else, it would be ignoring a defence treaty they made with Ukraine. How long can a defence alliance last after it stops honouring defense agreements? Put it another way, Canada used to be the world's biggest supporter of peacekeeping. If there was a peacekeeping mission, Canadians were involved, usually forming the bulk. Now, we have 21 total peacekeepers out in the field. Only in Canada by Canadians are we still viewed as the world's peacekeepers. We were a "peacekeeping country" that stopped peacekeeping. We're no longer a peacekeeping country. If a defence alliance stops coming to defend the places it's agreed to, it stops being a defence alliance.
The Budapest Memorandum was quite clear. Point 1: respect the sovereignty and existing borders. Point 2: refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukriane.
Some have argued Russia violated 1 with Crimea, except that Crimea was an independent region under the administration of Ukraine, and so it's arguable if they broke it. Not to mention Russia denies going in there. But if Russia flat out invades Ukraine, there's no grey area to hide in. Some with the economic tenets in the text of point 3. It's a grey area that at best both either violated or neither.
The truth is that the west stuck it's nose in Ukraine when the student protests began. Economically and otherwise. Whether you think it was "ok" for them to do it or not doesn't matter, they did it. They helped destabilize a nation and overthrow the elected government. Again, whether you think they had a right to or not doesn't matter, they did it. From a Russian standpoint, the West broke the Budapest Memorandum right there. That gives them every right to do the same - to support dissent. But the West didn't invade. And if either side does, I don't think the other side has any choice but to jump in. The political power that will be lost by sitting by and not responding will be costly to bear.
But then, I didn't think Canada would stop being peacekeepers either. Maybe I see the value in stopping the spread of a greedy, power-hungry nation before it can get started and just want to believe people care enough about fellow human beings to realize the treatment Ukrainians would face and be willing to stop it. But maybe they wouldn't. If Russia invades and NATO does nothing, I'll be very sad. But at the end of the day, I'll know the decision to do nothing was a political one and not a military one, because I know for a fact that the upper echelon in the western nations wouldn't want to see overt Russian aggression proceed unchecked. The fact is, I'd feel the same the other way. If Europe invaded Ukraine, even if the objective was to help beat back the Russian insurgents, I'd be sad if Russia didn't step up. Ukraine needs to find it's own path. Being forced one way or the other won't stop the problem. Military force in Ukraine would create the rift we've seen elsewhere, like Bosnia or Albania. The people in Ukraine need to find a way to compromise and work out there differences. That's why I have a problem with the western support of the student protests. They had an agenda, and that agenda has lead to civil war because it took one side and propelled them into the position of power over the others.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: neither side is doing right by Ukraine or Ukrainians. The west is just as responsible for the bullshit going on in Ukraine as Russia is, and the fact that world leaders continue to meet to discuss what Ukraine should do without involving the Ukrainian government is proof that everyone is looking at Ukraine as a toy to be fought after and played with. This shouldn't be a discussion about whether or not the West and Russia can share Ukraine, this should be a discussion of how Ukraine can find a way to get ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians to live in peace. You won't get that favoring one side over the other. You get that with compromise. And so far, Poroshenko has shown zero compromise. He's no different than the rebels showing zero compromise. The difference is that he's been elected to find a way to reach out and make it work, not drop bombs on cities and ask the west for aid.