Net Effect of Operation Effective Edge (Gaza) on Terrorism

[onthebottom]

I don't want to rehash points that are being made on MANY other threads, what I'm interested in here is the effect on terrorism that the Gaza operation will have.

Clearly Israel's objective is to destroy Hama's ability to launch rockets at its people and destroy tunnels that Hamas could use (and has used) to launch terrorists attacks on Israel. I would assume that a third objective would be to kill as many Hamas military terrorists as possible.

If we do the math, reports are that there are over 1,000 casualties on the Gaza side and around 40 on the Israeli side. These numbers may already be out of date but they will do for this analysis. There are reports that as few as 25% of the Gaza casualties are Hamas fighters, that would be 250, with 750 innocent collateral damage.

To me, morals aside, the questions are:
Is Israel creating more terrorists than it's killing?
How permanent are the Hamas degradations (can Hamas, how quickly can Hamas) repopulate their ranks?
How permanent are missile and tunnel destruction?
Will the operations make the West Bank more violent?
Will the operations make Hamas more or less popular with Palestinians?

My view is that Gaza is a terrorist nursery and that the current Gaza operation is accelerating that.

My view is that security gains by tunnel and missile destruction are temporary (1-2 years but to be fair I don't really know)

I also think that Israel is starting to lose the PR war - and while I'm sure security trumps popularity, Israel cannot afford to be isolated. It was a bit stunning in the US that Kerry was so quickly rebuffed. There is either a disconnect between the US and Israel (which would simply be Kerry being sloppy) or this signals a willingness for the US to exert public pressure on Israel. Israel can't really afford the latter.

But I know what I think, what do you think?

 

[fuji]

You continue to ignore the difference between an angry man with a stone, and an angry man with a Grad rocket.

 

[onthebottom]

You continue to ignore the difference between an angry man with a stone, and an angry man with a Grad rocket.

Not at all, is that a vote for more terrorists with weaker weapons as the result? For how long?

 

[groggy]

You continue to ignore the difference between an angry man with a stone, and an angry man with a Grad rocket.

So you support creating more angry men as your solution?

When the man is angry because of a lack of basic human rights, why do you support attacking him instead of dealing with the issues?
Why do you only preach hate and violence instead of dialogue, equal rights and applying international law to all sides?

 

[fuji]

So you support creating more angry men as your solution?

I support eliminating the Iranian heavy weapons from Gaza, whatever the cost may be. It is the only path to lasting peace.

 

[groggy]

I support eliminating the Iranian heavy weapons from Gaza, whatever the cost may be. It is the only path to lasting peace.

Your version of peace is an apartheid state with a more severe blockade and more serious human rights abuses on Palestinians.
Its already failed three times, how many more attacks on Gaza will it take for you to understand?
Israel needs to negotiate and give full human rights to all living under its rule.

 

[fuji]

Repeating your apartheid lie over and over just makes you look like an even bigger fanatic. It's like the Godwin's Law of the Middle East - you lose the debate for lying like that.

 

[danmand]

I don't want to rehash points that are being made on MANY other threads, what I'm interested in here is the effect on terrorism that the Gaza operation will have.

Clearly Israel's objective is to destroy Hama's ability to launch rockets at its people and destroy tunnels that Hamas could use (and has used) to launch terrorists attacks on Israel. I would assume that a third objective would be to kill as many Hamas military terrorists as possible.

If we do the math, reports are that there are over 1,000 casualties on the Gaza side and around 40 on the Israeli side. These numbers may already be out of date but they will do for this analysis. There are reports that as few as 25% of the Gaza casualties are Hamas fighters, that would be 250, with 750 innocent collateral damage.

To me, morals aside, the questions are:
Is Israel creating more terrorists than it's killing?
How permanent are the Hamas degradations (can Hamas, how quickly can Hamas) repopulate their ranks?
How permanent are missile and tunnel destruction?
Will the operations make the West Bank more violent?
Will the operations make Hamas more or less popular with Palestinians?

My view is that Gaza is a terrorist nursery and that the current Gaza operation is accelerating that.

My view is that security gains by tunnel and missile destruction are temporary (1-2 years but to be fair I don't really know)

I also think that Israel is starting to lose the PR war - and while I'm sure security trumps popularity, Israel cannot afford to be isolated. It was a bit stunning in the US that Kerry was so quickly rebuffed. There is either a disconnect between the US and Israel (which would simply be Kerry being sloppy) or this signals a willingness for the US to exert public pressure on Israel. Israel can't really afford the latter.

But I know what I think, what do you think?

I asked you in another thread what you think would happen if some power put 1.8 million red bloded americans in a ghetto with a military blocade and strict enforcement of goods and people movements in and out.

I know what I would do if an occupation power killed any of my children or my parents as collateral damage.

 

[fuji]

Not at all, is that a vote for more terrorists with weaker weapons as the result? For how long?

Have you seen the truce proposal the Israelis have been leaking?

Once IDF eliminates the Iranian weapons an international force with UN inspectors deploys to Gaza to ensure Hamas does not rearm, Fatah troops take over the border areas with international monitors checking for smuggling, and then the blockade is lifted.

It is a good plan, hopefully Netanyahu will stay the course.

 

[shack]

I asked you in another thread what you think would happen if some power put 1.8 million red bloded americans in a ghetto with a military blocade and strict enforcement of goods and people movements in and out.

Did those Americans call for the destruction of their neighbour and incessantly launch missiles targeted towards civilian areas? If so, I support putting them in a ghetto.

 

[Butler1000]

I asked you in another thread what you think would happen if some power put 1.8 million red bloded americans in a ghetto with a military blocade and strict enforcement of goods and people movements in and out.

I know what I would do if an occupation power killed any of my children or my parents as collateral damage.

I suppose you could use Waco Texas as a microcosm of this. So yes they probably would under the right circumstances.

 

[basketcase]

I don't want to rehash points that are being made on MANY other threads, what I'm interested in here is the effect on terrorism that the Gaza operation will have.
...

I would assume that is a short term fix and Israelis will be happy with reduced risk for a little while. Of course Hamas will start rebuilding its rocket arsenal and start digging tunnels again as soon as they can (as opposed to building things to help their people).

I don't think they are creating more terrorists Hamas (and others) have been indoctrinating people and children for decades that Israel should be destroyed. The only thing Israel can do about it is to appease Hamas and destroy itself.

The revenge instincts will likely give Hamas a spurt in popularity which will once again fall as the dust settles as people remember that living their lives is more important. I've said it before but is is extremely sad that starting a war that killed many Palestinians will help Hamas' popularity.

 

[basketcase]

Your version of peace is an apartheid state with a more severe blockade and more serious human rights abuses on Palestinians.
Its already failed three times, how many more attacks on Gaza will it take for you to understand?
Israel needs to negotiate and give full human rights to all living under its rule.

Actually that is the version of their own creation. The simplest way to peace would be for Hamas and other factions to accept the idea. Even if they refused to accept Israel's existence but used only political methods, the lives of the people of Gaza would be improved immeasurably.

 

[onthebottom]

Your version of peace is an apartheid state with a more severe blockade and more serious human rights abuses on Palestinians.
Its already failed three times, how many more attacks on Gaza will it take for you to understand?
Israel needs to negotiate and give full human rights to all living under its rule.

This is being repeated in a bunch of other threads, talk about the net effect or (excuse the phrase) fuck off

 

[onthebottom]

I support eliminating the Iranian heavy weapons from Gaza, whatever the cost may be. It is the only path to lasting peace.

So talk about what the net effect will be of this operation

 

[onthebottom]

I would assume that is a short term fix and Israelis will be happy with reduced risk for a little while. Of course Hamas will start rebuilding its rocket arsenal and start digging tunnels again as soon as they can (as opposed to building things to help their people).

I don't think they are creating more terrorists Hamas (and others) have been indoctrinating people and children for decades that Israel should be destroyed. The only thing Israel can do about it is to appease Hamas and destroy itself.

The revenge instincts will likely give Hamas a spurt in popularity which will once again fall as the dust settles as people remember that living their lives is more important. I've said it before but is is extremely sad that starting a war that killed many Palestinians will help Hamas' popularity.

So you see no long term effect but a short term (whatever that is ) degrading of capacity? Don't want to put words in your mouth but that's what I read.

You think any nationalistic surge Hamas gets out of this will subside.

I think this is reasonable

 

[onthebottom]

I asked you in another thread what you think would happen if some power put 1.8 million red bloded americans in a ghetto with a military blocade and strict enforcement of goods and people movements in and out.

I know what I would do if an occupation power killed any of my children or my parents as collateral damage.

A country tried that a couple hundred years ago, it didn't end as they suspected.

In that case there wasn't the rampant racism there is in this situation.

Answer the original question, what do you think the net outcome of this operation will be?

 

[onthebottom]

Have you seen the truce proposal the Israelis have been leaking?

Once IDF eliminates the Iranian weapons an international force with UN inspectors deploys to Gaza to ensure Hamas does not rearm, Fatah troops take over the border areas with international monitors checking for smuggling, and then the blockade is lifted.

It is a good plan, hopefully Netanyahu will stay the course.

So you think, with UN supervision of Gaza and Fatah supervision of the borders that the offensive capabilities (missiles, tunnels) can be permanently reduced?

 

[basketcase]

So you think, with UN supervision of Gaza and Fatah supervision of the borders that the offensive capabilities (missiles, tunnels) can be permanently reduced?

Better than the current situation for Gaza civilians and Israeli ones (although likely PA border control will be as corrupt as Hamas is).

 

[fuji]

So you think, with UN supervision of Gaza and Fatah supervision of the borders that the offensive capabilities (missiles, tunnels) can be permanently reduced?

Yes. Plus a UN force on the ground inside Gaza with weapons inspectors searching for tunnels and rockets in collaboration with Fatah.

It probably won't be 100% effective but it will create a framework that over time can be strengthened that puts real limits on what Hamas can do.

There are no rockets from the West Bank because it is occupied and the IDF can move around searching for contraband. Hamas is able to acquire missiles precisely because it controls the Gaza side of the border and because inside Gaza it is not subject to oversight.

Reoccupation of Gaza by IDF would accomplish the elimination of rockets. But putting a combination of Fatah men and international forces on the ground could be an approach that limits the rockets without the same potential for conflict as an IDF occupation.