It's reality TV, bitcoin and all those f**king MAGA hats...
You Can’t Project Power When the World Knows You Are Weak
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Well, I would go further and suggest it’s a lot more. But yep, for lack of better words. American society is in a state of decay.
They can’t even get shit done, bills passed. Can’t agree on shit, find any middle ground.I might suggest Washington is dysfunctional. but it’s more. So much more, and so much worse.
fast forward another 10-20 years…
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I think you are likely to find out.
The result of WWII was the west yilelded global defense to the US, the US took it and pushed globalization as an economic and political project. It largely worked. I see the US pulling back from that global security role, focusing more near shore (Mexico and Canada) and with well aligned states (Japan, S. Korea, Australia…) as the US becomes self sufficient in food, energy and raw materials. Mexico last month was the largest exporting country to the US, overtaking China for the first time - that is a sign of things to come.
I won’t “dispute” that.
not entirely. Was a time I thought not during my life. Now I’m not so sure. Think they will implode first. But who knows.And ho knows what will happen over the next generation ( 15-20 years) or two. Certainly there will be other recessions, maybe as bad as 2008 other world events like Covid that shake the landscape.
Many have speculated for years, the next big one will be economic. Ask Japan how it went ( is going for them). The US imports, near everything that matters. Nor does it make anything anymore. And as far as oil goes. All anyone need to do is turn off the taps or have them burning through their reserves. Their military and their economy will grind to a halt.
Balance of Trade in the United States averaged -17.46 USD Billion from 1950 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 1.95 USD Billion in June of 1975 and a record low of -102.54 USD Billion in March of 2022
United States Balance of Trade - July 2023 Data - 1950-2022 Historical
The United States recorded a trade deficit of 65.50 USD Billion in June of 2023. Balance of Trade in the United States averaged -17.46 USD Billion from 1950 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 1.95 USD Billion in June of 1975 and a record low of -102.54 USD Billion in March of 2022. This...
tradingeconomics.com
Don’t confuse the country with its government, governments are simply inefficient ineffective parasitic organizations that feed on the country.
Actually the US makes almost everything that actually matters. Energy, food, homes, cars. Yes the world is our sweatshop for lower value items, and yes we have BY FAR the largest consumer market so we import a lot of stuff. Chip making is being onshored or near Shored (Mexico), Mexico is now the largest exporter to the US and is a very strategic middle economy partner. Space X has put more payload in orbit than all other launch entities COMBINED, Tesla model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the world.I won’t “dispute” that.
And ho knows what will happen over the next generation ( 15-20 years) or two. Certainly there will be other recessions, maybe as bad as 2008 other world events like Covid that shake the landscape.
Many have speculated for years, the next big one will be economic. Ask Japan how it went ( is going for them). The US imports, near everything that matters. Nor does it make anything anymore. And as far as oil goes. All anyone need to do is turn off the taps or have them burning through their reserves. Their military and their economy will grind to a halt.
Balance of Trade in the United States averaged -17.46 USD Billion from 1950 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 1.95 USD Billion in June of 1975 and a record low of -102.54 USD Billion in March of 2022
.United States Balance of Trade - July 2023 Data - 1950-2022 Historical
The United States recorded a trade deficit of 65.50 USD Billion in June of 2023. Balance of Trade in the United States averaged -17.46 USD Billion from 1950 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 1.95 USD Billion in June of 1975 and a record low of -102.54 USD Billion in March of 2022. This...
Consumer Markets: (millions USD nominal)
| United States | 18,526,973 | ||
| European Union | 8,762,887 | ||
| China | 6,804,921 |
I agree, but I think there are a lot of people in the government who grew up in that moment and think any drop from that height is "the US failing" and are prone to over-reacting to that perception.
This is a danger.
I don't disagree with your analysis on the military front.
But I'm not talking about pure military power.
Dominance of the international order and the concept of hegemony isn't based on that.
It largely is though. The ability to project power comes from military dominance.
Oil crosses the ocean in huge, slow ships. Trade goods cross the ocean in huge, slow ships. Grain and other food crosses the ocean in huge, slow ships. By and large, those ships are protected by the US Navy. Other nations help, sure, especially near their own shores, but it's largely the USN and the US population subsiding the protection of the oceans. Imagine they stopped doing that? Imagine they decided the entire world should cut off Cuba and actually worked to prevent Cuban trade with anyone? I have a lot of issues with America and Americans, but I have to acknowledge the good they do too.
There's a reason major embargoes are largely ineffectual unless the US is involved. While the general populations around the world don't acknowledge this and even sometimes complain about the US acting as world police, virtually the entire world benefits.
To me, in a discussion about power projection, the reality that the US commands the seas for the benefit of (almost) everyone, and can defeat even the largest alliances in the would tells me their hegemony is safe.
If you think they were stronger the day the wall feel, I can't see how. What power did they command then that they didn't command now?
1990.
Ross Perot was basically a harbinger for Trump. Why did he go nowhere..
www.pewresearch.org
Economically.
Countries like China and India weren’t as influential as they are today. In essence, US imports and trade imbalances, weren’t what they are today.
Walmart parking lots, weren’t full like they are today, because that’s what the dirty masses can afford.
no idea what the US spent on its military back then, let’s assume the same. The US, like us, is about to feel the weight of boomers. In labour markets and their exodus and impacts to gdp, , and in healthcare and other social niceties. I imagine ( don’t know) their ratio of boomers is higher.
Manufacturing was still viable, the rust belt didn’t exist.
GretaThunberg didn’t exist. Phasing out oil didn’t exist.
Remote work, like call centers in India didn’t exist.
And while the US has descreased military spending. Assuming the world and left wants to continue on such a path where everyone sings Kumbaya. At some point, the US military won’t be what it is. Which for all intents and purposes is a chained and handcuffed bear for show in a circus. Not a snowballs chance in hell, the American public will be ok, with taking the cuffs off.
lots of things have changed
Ross Perot was basically a harbinger for Trump. Why did he go nowhere..
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2023
Public trust in government remains low, as it has for much of the 21st century. Only two-in-ten Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (19%).
www.pewresearch.org
Economically.
Countries like China and India weren’t as influential as they are today. In essence, US imports and trade imbalances, weren’t what they are today.
Walmart parking lots, weren’t full like they are today, because that’s what the dirty masses can afford.
no idea what the US spent on its military back then, let’s assume the same. The US, like us, is about to feel the weight of boomers. In labour markets and their exodus and impacts to gdp, , and in healthcare and other social niceties. I imagine ( don’t know) their ratio of boomers is higher.
Manufacturing was still viable, the rust belt didn’t exist.
GretaThunberg didn’t exist. Phasing out oil didn’t exist.
Remote work, like call centers in India didn’t exist.
And while the US has descreased military spending. Assuming the world and left wants to continue on such a path where everyone sings Kumbaya. At some point, the US military won’t be what it is. Which for all intents and purposes is a chained and handcuffed bear for show in a circus. Not a snowballs chance in hell, the American public will be ok, with taking the cuffs off.
lots of things have changed
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Though the embargoes have largely created two parrallel trade systems, Russia is still able to get enough manufacturing parts through China and others, Iran still sells oil.
No country has the power, it appears, to invade and hold a country anymore. Even the best the US could do is invade and turn Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan into failed states. Given those fights weren't about taking down countries that had the power to invade and more likely about goods controls all it did was take them out of the markets and leave them to foster guerilla fighters.
I would also wonder how long the US could get by without Chinese imports and how long China can get by without exports. Russia being an example, even with the oil exports they are ruining their economy.
Ukraine may have also changed the nature of war, with the power of drones taking over from air forces.
The next few years will also be interesting with food exports, already we are seeing crop failure everywhere and that will make some places more desparate.
This is exactly right.
I’d say the US love affair with globalization is over, China is no longer cheap and they’ve proved to be not worthy of trust. The US is in the process of re/near shoring its supply chain to more reliable partners in Mexico and Europe. The Saudi’s are shopping for a new security guarantor as the US has lost interest in Middle East energy production, that will expand as the US more tightly focuses it’s supply chain and has fewer trading routs to protect. Who will protect oil shipments from the ME to China?
Who can predict what China will or won’t do, if as or when, various things change. They are the elephant and wild card.
And if the US ( and others stop trading with China. Who is going to fill Walmart shelves, make widgets) . At a price point a whole lot of people can handle? Back around 2000 shopping at Walmart had a stigma. Today, the parking lots are crammed.
And if the US ( and others stop trading with China. Who is going to fill Walmart shelves, make widgets) . At a price point a whole lot of people can handle? Back around 2000 shopping at Walmart had a stigma. Today, the parking lots are crammed.
That explains your trade imbalances
“cars” who makes various components.Did Covid not teach you anything? Can tell you some years ago I did some work for a company in aluminum extrusion. You be surprised what came from the east on container ships
.
See also
Full year 2022 total and finished steel imports were 30,832,000 and 25,249,000 NT, down 2.0% and up 10.9%, respectively, vs. 2021. Finished steel import market share was an estimated 23% in December and is estimated at 24% for full year 2022
see also Aluminum
US Aluminum Imports by Country 2024
luckily you have us for lumber.
Where does us get most of its timber?
However, the U.S. also imports approximately $4.5 billion worth of softwood lumber from Canada, accounting for 83% of total softwood lumber imports by value. That's over ten times as much as the U.S. exports to other countries.
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The size of our consumer market does explain our net imports.That explains your trade imbalances
“cars” who makes various components.Did Covid not teach you anything? Can tell you some years ago I did some work for a company in aluminum extrusion. You be surprised what came from the east on container ships
.
See also
Full year 2022 total and finished steel imports were 30,832,000 and 25,249,000 NT, down 2.0% and up 10.9%, respectively, vs. 2021. Finished steel import market share was an estimated 23% in December and is estimated at 24% for full year 2022
see also Aluminum
US Aluminum Imports by Country 2024
worldpopulationreview.com
luckily you have us for lumber.
Where does us get most of its timber?
However, the U.S. also imports approximately $4.5 billion worth of softwood lumber from Canada, accounting for 83% of total softwood lumber imports by value. That's over ten times as much as the U.S. exports to other countries.
COVID and China have kicked off a re/nearshoring focus, Canada is part of that as a trusted partner.
Mexico is now cheaper than China and has surpassed (last month) China as the largest importer to the US.
China needs protection of its ME oil supply against only one of
them who happens to be the only protector they can turn to. It
will be like having to pay the Mafia for protection.
US / China trade.
let this sink in.
.
US / Mexico
ustr.gov
I thought you were self sufficient?
finmasters.com
let this sink in.
Let’s assume both countries distenagle. You think China is just going to do nothing to replace the $$. And what will American consumers think about much higher price points. And what makes you think “Mexico” can handle so much in exports…and pick up the slack per se.
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US / Mexico
So you have a 400b deficit with Mexico and a 500b deficit with China
Mexico
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has fostered this relationship by virtue of the agreement's comprehensive, market-opening rules. It is also creating a more equitable set of trade rules as trade barriers in Mexico are reduced and eliminated. U.S.-Mexico Trade Facts
I thought you were self sufficient?
What Is the U.S. Trade Deficit and Why Does It Matter?
The US runs a large trade deficit, and has for many years. But what is a trade deficit, and why does it matter? Let's look closer.
finmasters.com
If the US wanted to let nothing through, they could. It would involve violating airspace and waters, so they've never done it. But they could. I'm talking a full on siege of an entire nation. It's only ever been done with countries the US was at war with. When it was invading Iraq, nothing got in or out except small items in small quantities smuggled by car or donkey.
The occupation is definitely the problem when nations care about human rights. Kill them all, then either salt the earth or enslave/imprison everyone and move on your own settlers still works as well as it ever did. But most nations aren't able or willing to do that. But when the US can tear down the 4th largest military in the world in 44 days and completely dismantle it, it demonstrates no one poses a real threat. No other military in the would has the power to move that much force around the world. Russia can't even get across a land border, let alone cross the ocean.
Only a problem on a democracy, which is the biggest weakness Western nations have always had, and why in time of real war, some suspend it. In WWII, the British Empire essentially pulled an Ancient Rome by appointing a dictator and suspending elections. In places where that didn't happen, usually support wasn't as strong. Canada was a perfect example. It wasn't just our shit commander for the first half, our government and electoral process tied our hands.
You might want to look into the now-defunct SIOP. They studied this. 5 years to retrain people to be manufactories and labourers for a wartime/rebuilding economy that's not dependent on anyone, 20 years to rebuild the economy, 10 years to retrain people away from a wartime economy. If you can keep your population in check for those 35 years and not in rebellion, you win. Can they? Almost certainly not. But neither can anyone else.
And which nation leads in the use, production, and logistics of military drones by as huge margin?
