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You Can’t Project Power When the World Knows You Are Weak

Darts

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The Philippines learned a hard lesson in reality. Several years ago they kicked the U.S. out of Subic Bay.

Then the Philippines got into a dispute with the PRC over some islands and asked the U.S. for help. Truth be told, the Philippines need the U.S. much more than the U.S. need the Philippines. Reality never lies. Only fools lie.
 

toguy5252

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The Philippines learned a hard lesson in reality. Several years ago they kicked the U.S. out of Subic Bay.

Then the Philippines got into a dispute with the PRC over some islands and asked the U.S. for help. Truth be told, the Philippines need the U.S. much more than the U.S. need the Philippines. Reality never lies. Only fools lie.
The entire world needs a strong US and that is why the current position of Der fuerer, I mean Trump, is so shocking. That would also explain why he is the apple of putins eye.
 

poker

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Niagara
 

DinkleMouse

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The original article is a real hot take.

All is NATO assistance to Ukraine amounts to less than 9% of just US defense spending, and it's mostly been old equipment with the exception of a handful of artillery, recently arrived armour, and soon to arrive aircraft, and it's been able to grind Russia's military to a halt. So anyone that thinks the US is "weak" might want to think about what $877 million in military spending gets if $75 million has accomplished this. And that's assuming the US goes it alone and doesn't bring any of its friends.

The US's last major conflict was Iraq. It achieved achieved air superiority in minutes and air supremacy in hours, the entire invasion was over in a hair over 40 days. Russia's been at this well over a year and currently controls barely more territory than it did when it started and seems unlikely that they'll ever achieve air superiority. They've stopped using their amazing "superweapons" after claiming it destroyed Patriot, likely to avoid the embarrassment of having it shot down again by Patriot and proving it hasn't performed as they expected.

This war has certainly exposed the one nation previously thought to be strong militarily is actually weak, but it's sure not the US.
 

mandrill

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Piece doesn't really seem concerned with Trump.
It may be vaguely anti-Biden, anti-Ukraine, but it is talking about the general loss of US Hegemony which is a real thing that's been going on since the highwater mark of US power in the 20th century.

How the US manages that decline and shift is a big deal.
You'll have to convince me that US hegemony isn't still dominant. I see no reason to presume that the utter dominance of the US economy and the US armed forces has waned.
 
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Not getting younger

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Who knows what the world will look like in 10 years, never mind 20.

24 years ago, 9/11 hadn’t happened, nor had 2008 or Covid…. 24 years ago, the rust belt wasn’t a thing, BLM and cops being executed wasn’t a thing nor some others. 24 years the US was no-where near as divided, polarized, .

There is nothing, none, nada, zilch presently. That might suggest that will get better. Quite the opposite.
 
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NotADcotor

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Mar 8, 2017
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Let's be frank. (How is Frank?). There are some countries you don't want as a friend/ally.

The wild cards are India and Pakistan. I wouldn't call them friends but they are not enemies either. They seem to play both sides against the middle.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan and India get into another shooting war (the 5th, 6th or 7th?). I also wouldn't be surprised if India and China get into another shooting war either.

The most dangerous borders in the world are123:
  • North Korea/South Korea: The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) is the 160-mile boundary between North and South Korea. It's the most militarized border on earth.
  • India/Pakistan: The India-Pakistan border is 1,800 miles of heavily guarded and extremely dangerous land.
  • Israel/Syria: The border dispute between Israel and Syria dates back many years.
  • Mexico/US
  • Bangladesh/India
Pakistan and India both have nukes. I really doubt they are going to go at each other in a serious manner. Ditto for India and China. Maybe some dick measuring border shit but that's it. Last India China stuff, they didn't even use their weapons, everybody was Kung Fu or Kalaripayattu fighting, they were fast as lightning. Also India and Pakistan are enemies.
Ditto for North Korea and South Korea. North Korea knows if they fight they lose a conventional war and if they go nuclear the leaders will die and the country will be
Nobody is going after Isreal. They have lost so badly so many times, there is no sign of anything improving and erm, nukes. Also Syria can't even control it's own clay. They sure as fuck ain't going after Israel alone, what sort of fantasy bullshit is that.
Mexico/US, Again what the fuck. Mexico can't even fight it's cartels and there are enough Mexicans in the US as voters that the US won't invade
India and Bangladesh have good relations from last I've heard

I might not want to go walk about across these borders without a visa but hell outside of the visa free zone in Europe that applies everywhere to some degree. But in terms of shooting war, none of those seem realistic.
 

Valcazar

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You'll have to convince me that US hegemony isn't still dominant. I see no reason to presume that the utter dominance of the US economy and the US armed forces has waned.
It is absolutely still dominant.
But it isn't the high water mark it was in the past.

That there hasn't been more major re-balancing against it is actually something of a surprise given the historical tendency, but it seems the USA as Leader of the status quo coalition (while not quite an uncontested hegemon) is still pretty stable overall. That can change if the US loses trust in that role, though. But this sort of "team captain" role is one possibility of managing the decline from the peak. The Trumpian mindset that tears down that structure for a more hard power approach to dominance probably results in a much more precipitous decline.
 

mandrill

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It is absolutely still dominant.
But it isn't the high water mark it was in the past.

That there hasn't been more major re-balancing against it is actually something of a surprise given the historical tendency, but it seems the USA as Leader of the status quo coalition (while not quite an uncontested hegemon) is still pretty stable overall. That can change if the US loses trust in that role, though. But this sort of "team captain" role is one possibility of managing the decline from the peak. The Trumpian mindset that tears down that structure for a more hard power approach to dominance probably results in a much more precipitous decline.
I'm going to have to differ. The nuclear deterrent aside - BIG aside, I admit! - The US defeats Russia in a few days. China probably lasts a couple of weeks. And no one else plays in the league.
 

Valcazar

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I'm going to have to differ. The nuclear deterrent aside - BIG aside, I admit! - The US defeats Russia in a few days. China probably lasts a couple of weeks. And no one else plays in the league.
Not arguing with that.
That isn't the measure of whether it was in a more dominant position before than it is now.
 

mandrill

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Not arguing with that.
That isn't the measure of whether it was in a more dominant position before than it is now.
Explain your position?
 

Valcazar

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My position is straight forward.
The US dominance of the international order was at its highest right after the fall of the USSR.
Unsurprisingly, it hasn't been able to maintain the same level of dominance, even if it remains clearly the most powerful player on the scene.
 

basketcase

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I get people complaining about US hegemony affecting other countries but do people really think that in the absence of US foreign interactions, other countries will be free?

Sorry but given a choice between the US pulling the strings vs. China or Russia, I think I'll stick with the US.
 

Not getting younger

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Lol. You guys do understand do you not that that outside of kicking the snot out of the Iraq, (not exactly all the tough) the US hasn’t won anything since…..Vietnam? Afghanistan?

Personally don’t see it anyways. The US is decaying from within.
 

DinkleMouse

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My position is straight forward.
The US dominance of the international order was at its highest right after the fall of the USSR.
Unsurprisingly, it hasn't been able to maintain the same level of dominance, even if it remains clearly the most powerful player on the scene.
My position is that it hasn't had to.

US policy was always based on the idea of fighting 2 major regional conflicts at once while maintaining the current operational tempo (which is now just North Korea). But as time has moved on, the axises that pose a that to the US has declined. NATO has grown, the Rio Pact has grown, ties with India and Oceania have grown... The US has more military alliances now than it did then.

There are only 2 potential MRCs for the US to consider. If we take them at their absolute possible biggest, it's a unified Sino-Russian conflict involving North Korea and a conflict involving the Indian subcontinent, but the Indian subcontinent is unlikely to unify given the tensions there and ongoing US-India counter-Chinese relations. Pakistan is more likely to ally with China, but it's also weaker than India.

So really if the US can handle a China/Russia/Pakistan/North Korean alliance, it's set. And given that China has no official alliances and is now starting to distance itself militarily from Russia, even that seems unlikely.

Not to mention a generational technological advantage particularly in aviation (which is the most critical aspect of a modern military as I've explained before and which encompasses more than just aircraft; it's actually the vast majority of US military planning).

Let's not forget Iraq had the 4th largest military in the world at the time of the invasion. To this day only 5 militaries, one of them being the US, are that size or bigger. And it had what was, at the time, current-generation Russian equipment. But the US utterly destroyed it's ability to wage war on anyone in days, and completely dismantled it's entire military in just over a month. Even now, only China, India, Russia and North Korea are that big or bigger. Given Russia's performance and knowing how behind North Korea is, those stronger counter-Chinese ties between the US and India really start to become relevant.

The biggest threat to the US military right now is the GOP. Aside from them destroying it from within, the US military is as capable now compared to the state of the world as it was when the iron curtain came down.

That's my 2 cents anyway. I don't understand what you mean when you say it's "dominance at the international order" isn't what it was.
 
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onthebottom

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There is a long line of people wanting to move to the US, including Canadians. The US is energy and food self sufficient, has more navigable water ways and deep ports than the rest of the world combined. We’ve had the largest economy in the world since 1890, have 90/100 best universities in the world…. Really, the list is almost endless.

And…. Last month the #1 exporting country to the US was MEXICO - the near and reshoring is well underway.
 

onthebottom

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