Will Trump’s Tariffs Stand or Fall?

[shaved4you]

This Trump and his side kick is a circus shit show ..
when will this guy realize people dont like him and he is going to get the boot soon if he doesnt stop

 

[oil&gas]

World's economy will be shifting from a globalized one to
regional and eventually transitions to local in the 22nd century.
Trump's tariff could be a catalyst to that transition for the U.S.

If Trump's tariff policy turns out to be a success in deficit reduction
the reason for it would not be it is working well. It's success can
only be brought about by contraction of the economy. It is going
to be a devastating success.

Tariffs can be effective economic tools, but only when applied in a targeted and strategic manner. When designed to protect specific industries that are vital to national interests such as manufacturing or agriculture they can provide breathing room for domestic producers to remain competitive. However, broad-based or blanket tariffs on all imported goods often do more harm than good, leading to widespread price increases for American consumers and businesses. Aside from generating additional government revenue, the net economic impact of such sweeping tariffs is generally negative.
Tariffs on imported automobiles can offer a degree of protection to the U.S. auto industry, helping domestic manufacturers compete against lower-cost foreign alternatives. Yet, this protection is limited. Wealthier consumers may still opt for luxury vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz or BMW, particularly if those purchases can be written off as business expenses, thus mitigating the impact of higher prices.
American orange growers benefit from tariffs imposed on foreign citrus imports, especially from major producers like Mexico and Brazil. These measures help shield domestic agriculture from being undercut by cheaper or more abundant foreign produce. In cases like these, where the goal is to preserve a critical segment of the economy or national food supply, tariffs can play a valuable role.
Tariffs must be used with precision and purpose, not as a blunt instrument. When misapplied, they risk doing more damage to the economy than the protection they offer to any one sector.

 

[Ceiling Cat]

Is America paving the way for job loss with tariffs?

The landscape of global competition is shifting, and American jobs are on the line as companies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America turn to China for their bu...

www.youtube.com

 

[Robert Mugabe]

CBS evening news. Story about Canadians being the biggest source of tourism in the US, especially Florida, boycotting the US now.

 

[oil&gas]

No doubt Trump's tariffs will lead to job loss, maybe even
massively. How is Walmart going to cope with escalating input
cost thanks to tariffs slapped on Chinese imports? Massive
layoff of course.


Bear this in mind though. Never ever underestimate resiliency
of the U.S. economy. Americans will adapt to shrinkage of its
economy. There is a time when the U.S. manufactured as many
if not more of world's goods as China today. For future's sake
the U.S. has to contract its economy and suffer.

 

[oil&gas]

CBS evening news. Story about Canadians being the biggest source of tourism in the US, especially Florida, boycotting the US now.

This will change by the end of the fall. No one except the mentally
deranged would want to travel to Toronto or Montreal instead of Miami
or California for winter vacation.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

No doubt Trump's tariffs will lead to job loss, maybe even
massively. How is Walmart going to cope with escalating input
cost thanks to tariffs slapped on Chinese imports? Massive
layoff of course.


Bear this in mind though. Never ever underestimate resiliency
of the U.S. economy. Americans will adapt to shrinkage of its
economy. There is a time when the U.S. manufactured as many
if not more of world's goods as China today. For future's sake
the U.S. has to contract its economy and suffer.

Inventing a time machine is the only solution

 

[dirtydaveiii]

This will change by the end of the fall. No one except the mentally
deranged would want to travel to Toronto or Montreal instead of Miami
or California for winter vacation.

So we should be expecting troves of MAGA tourists ?

 

[Anbarandy]

Surely some of the imposed tariffs will be modified. Trump's tariffs are
an act of a global bully. Depending on how effective some of the targets
of Trump's bullying in fighting back he would have to renegotiate with the
more powerful foes but continue bullying the weaker ones.

I see the weakest targets of Trump being Europe. They will have no choice
but to keep up with buying U.S. military junks to defend against Putin
and LNG at premium prices from the U.S. Trump may even consider
importing Russia's unwanted natural gas to Alsaska where the U.S.
can transport down to the western coast and exports it back to Europe
at hefty price of course.

It is a fact that Donald Trump is not a very bright man among his
peers of world leaders. He thinks like a common man. He has at
best the wisdom of a not-too-dumb peasant rather than that of a typical
billionaire.

That being said, even a peasant would understand you cannot
spend more than you earn perpetually while debt servicing cost
is climbing with no end in sight.

While it is obvious Trump's tariff policy is devastating and
likely to fail none of its critics seem to have the solutions to
the issue Trump is trying to address. No country can spend
more than it earns while government and private debt has
long been accumulated to a level that stands little to no prospect
of ever being paid off. At some point the U.S. will have to import
less than it exports and its government would no longer be able
to fund its spending through debt financing. Trump's tariffs may fail
big time. But that won't save the U.S. from having to face the
day of reckoning eventually.

If I remember the data I looked up correctly yield of 10-year U.S.
treasury already has dropped by something like 0.8%. While that seems
trivial it does translate to sizeable reduction of interest payment
given a public debt as humungus as $38 trillion.




The U.S. simply can't grow a consumer-based economy
while running a trade deficit forever. Eventually it will lose
its ability to manufacture most of the goods it wants to buy
from importers.




Don't know for sure if Trump has deficit reduction by tariffs on his mind.
But given that Trump doesn't like trade deficit according to your post or
the source in your post it is reasonable to assume Trump is trying to
reduce deficit.

Trump can be the bully he is because the USD is world's reserve
currency and because the U.S. has the military might to back him.
Most of the world wants to export their goods to the U.S. because
they can use the USD they receive to buy things from anyone else.
Surely Trump will face retaliation but much of the world including
BRICS members like India will still try to find ways to talk down the
tariffs so as to continue trading with the U.S.

Other world economic powers are simply not in the position to
bully. They will have to find other ways to reduce deficit both in
foreign trade and government spending.

If it takes price inflation of imported goods to force people to
buy less imports and invest more in local manufacturing industries
then hardship and a lower standard of living may have to be
the price to pay to reduce trade deficit. If trade deficit will sort itself
out like Trudeau's budget will balance itself then kicking the
can down the road could be the right thing to do at least for some
years. The U.S. debt is a ticking time bomb awaiting detonation
when it is eventually hit by the fateful step of can kicking.

1) Why don't you just stop it, knock it off and give us an effin break.
2) You sound just like the Orange Idiot, blithering, blathering all signifying, both of you two nincompoops know shit, fuck all.
3) Both of you pretend, believe, delude yourselves into this nth level bullshit tariff/economic drivel

It's the Golden Age of Stupid, it is.

 

[richaceg]

a drop in treasury yields only reduces the cost of new issuance by the government, not existing fixed rate treasuries
floating rate treasuries represent 2 to 3% of all US treasuries

So a yield drop does not materially impact the US govt interest obligations
Rather it increases the price of US treasuries held by investors

note: Interest payments represent 20% of US government revenues
note 2: the 37 trillion in debt the US govt has accumulated in its 240 year history is projected to double in the next 9 years
This is a ticking time bomb as a insolvent US govt will create a world wide depression



trade deficits are far less a concern for a US economy which is 2/3 domestic
its is a problem but nowhere near as scary as the US govt debt bomb




He is trying to do multiple things all at once
i.e. tariffs revenue and doge efficiency to eliminate govt deficit
he should have focused on one issue and that is reducing the size of US govt
and if he was going to pick a trade war fight, pick that fight with one country and get an agreement, then move onto the next country

Why explaon to the liberals who's more focused in "shock and awe" and parrot what the legacy media feeds them? They will whine and whine even in issues (tariffs) they don't understand.

 

[squeezer]

. Pelosi and Obama had the same idea but didn't deliver.

WTF, LMFAO

Why explaon to the liberals who's more focused in "shock and awe" and parrot what the legacy media feeds them? They will whine and whine even in issues (tariffs) they don't understand.

This is planet earth, HELLLLLOOOOO, where are you from????

 

[JohnLarue]

Tariffs can be effective economic tools, but only when applied in a targeted and strategic manner. When designed to protect specific industries that are vital to national interests such as manufacturing or agriculture they can provide breathing room for domestic producers to remain competitive. However, broad-based or blanket tariffs on all imported goods often do more harm than good, leading to widespread price increases for American consumers and businesses. Aside from generating additional government revenue, the net economic impact of such sweeping tariffs is generally negative.
Tariffs on imported automobiles can offer a degree of protection to the U.S. auto industry, helping domestic manufacturers compete against lower-cost foreign alternatives. Yet, this protection is limited. Wealthier consumers may still opt for luxury vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz or BMW, particularly if those purchases can be written off as business expenses, thus mitigating the impact of higher prices.
American orange growers benefit from tariffs imposed on foreign citrus imports, especially from major producers like Mexico and Brazil. These measures help shield domestic agriculture from being undercut by cheaper or more abundant foreign produce. In cases like these, where the goal is to preserve a critical segment of the economy or national food supply, tariffs can play a valuable role.
Tariffs must be used with precision and purpose, not as a blunt instrument. When misapplied, they risk doing more damage to the economy than the protection they offer to any one sector.

this I agree with

 

[Frankfooter]

The tariffs are stupid and will fail.

Given the differential between US wages - even for desperate, unskilled labour in shit pile states like Alabama - and 3rd World wages, the only way that the US can sustain a market for US made cheap goods like t-shirts and sneakers is by maintaining very high tariffs.

Given Trump's unpredictability and the likelihood that another administration will end or reduce the tariffs, NO US MANUFACTURER WILL OPEN A FACTORY IN THE USA FOR THESE GOODS because the massive investment will be 100% pissed away and wasted as soon as the tariffs are yanked or reduced.

So no one is dumb enough to do this. Period. End of story.

So what you have is prices doubling in the USA and no positive developments of any sort.

Lutnick says it will be robots, not american workers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908895079928123421

 

[Robert Mugabe]

This will change by the end of the fall. No one except the mentally
deranged would want to travel to Toronto or Montreal instead of Miami
or California for winter vacation.

Yea. Right. Too bad the Caribbean is such a long haul from Florida. Bermuda. Bahamas. And so on.

 

[Anbarandy]

Remember Ross Perot with his "giant sucking sound" referring to Mexico?

Giant sucking sound - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

China is quite a different animal though.

 

[wigglee]

If it takes price inflation of imported goods to force people to
buy less imports and invest more in local manufacturing industries
then hardship and a lower standard of living may have to be
the price to pay to reduce trade deficit. If trade deficit will sort itself
out like Trudeau's budget will balance itself then kicking the
can down the road could be the right thing to do at least for some
years. The U.S. debt is a ticking time bomb awaiting detonation
when it is eventually hit by the fateful step of can kicking.

Too bad Drumpf lied and said prices would come down on day 1. The Maga doofusses will be pissed by the time the mid term election comes around and he will lose the Congress. Then he'll be a lame duck unless he just overrules the Constitution and seizes power on some fake emergency pretense and declares himself dictator for life. Remember when he said "this could be the last election" ?

 

[oil&gas]

Too bad Drumpf lied and said prices would come down on day 1. The Maga doofusses will be pissed by the time the mid term election comes around and he will lose the Congress. Then he'll be a lame duck unless he just overrules the Constitution and seizes power on some fake emergency pretense and declares himself dictator for life. Remember when he said "this could be the last election" ?

At this time it is not certain if Trump's tariffs are set in stone.

It is possible some tariffs will be renegotiated. So far it looks to me
some minor trading partners of the U.S., Taiwan, Vietnam and Israel,
may stand a chance of getting a better deal from Trump upon renegotiations.

 

[riskparity]

mkts down 3-5% heading into open. nothing good gonna come off this. only trade is to long TQQQ and short VIX at some point for max exposure. But hate trading stocks. Zero edge being retail sadly

 

[The Oracle]

https://x.com/briebriejoy/status/1907803889438454129

Let's see how this all shakes out...

 

[oil&gas]

I see the 'Trump Crash' to be an excellent opportunity to pick
up shares of silver and uranium miners. Not sure when and
where the bottom is to be hit.