Your argument was that is why he is doing it.
There is no need to ascribe that plan to him.
Will Trump’s Tariffs Stand or Fall?
- Thread starter Ceiling Cat
- Start date
There is no need to ascribe that plan to him.
The tariffs are stupid and will fail.
Given the differential between US wages - even for desperate, unskilled labour in shit pile states like Alabama - and 3rd World wages, the only way that the US can sustain a market for US made cheap goods like t-shirts and sneakers is by maintaining very high tariffs.
Given Trump's unpredictability and the likelihood that another administration will end or reduce the tariffs, NO US MANUFACTURER WILL OPEN A FACTORY IN THE USA FOR THESE GOODS because the massive investment will be 100% pissed away and wasted as soon as the tariffs are yanked or reduced.
So no one is dumb enough to do this. Period. End of story.
So what you have is prices doubling in the USA and no positive developments of any sort.
Given the differential between US wages - even for desperate, unskilled labour in shit pile states like Alabama - and 3rd World wages, the only way that the US can sustain a market for US made cheap goods like t-shirts and sneakers is by maintaining very high tariffs.
Given Trump's unpredictability and the likelihood that another administration will end or reduce the tariffs, NO US MANUFACTURER WILL OPEN A FACTORY IN THE USA FOR THESE GOODS because the massive investment will be 100% pissed away and wasted as soon as the tariffs are yanked or reduced.
So no one is dumb enough to do this. Period. End of story.
So what you have is prices doubling in the USA and no positive developments of any sort.
One reason the tariffs ended or were reduced 100 or so years ago was corruption, as different businesses would come to the white house and plead for their exception from the tariff.
Many of us have assumed the chance for corruption is one of the reasons Trump likes them so much.
Absolutely. Gives him the power /leverage.
If folks think more along the lines of mafia bosses VS US president's Trumps actions make more sense, at least in the short term. I have doubts he thinks these through for the long term.
Tariffs have never worked well for any country. They often raise prices, hurt consumers, and create trade conflicts. On the other hand, free trade agreements, like the Canada/U.S. Free Trade Agreement have been very successful. That deal lowered tariffs, boosted exports, grew both economies, and gave consumers more choices at lower prices.
This is why I believe the tariffs introduced by Trump will not last. They likely violate existing trade agreements like the WTO rules and the USMCA. Blanket tariffs those applied broadly without targeting specific industries may even be illegal under those agreements.
Many of the low-cost items sold in dollar stores, for example, are not made in North America. So tariffs on these goods wouldn’t protect any jobs, they would just raise prices for consumers.
Tariffs on materials like Canadian wood also hurt Americans. They drive up construction costs, making housing more expensive and forcing small businesses to close.
Tariffs act like a tax on consumers. They don’t protect jobs in most cases, they just make everyday goods more expensive. Free trade agreements have proven to be a much better path, helping both countries grow and giving people better prices and more options.
World Major Free Trade Agreements
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa
This is why I believe the tariffs introduced by Trump will not last. They likely violate existing trade agreements like the WTO rules and the USMCA. Blanket tariffs those applied broadly without targeting specific industries may even be illegal under those agreements.
Many of the low-cost items sold in dollar stores, for example, are not made in North America. So tariffs on these goods wouldn’t protect any jobs, they would just raise prices for consumers.
Tariffs on materials like Canadian wood also hurt Americans. They drive up construction costs, making housing more expensive and forcing small businesses to close.
Tariffs act like a tax on consumers. They don’t protect jobs in most cases, they just make everyday goods more expensive. Free trade agreements have proven to be a much better path, helping both countries grow and giving people better prices and more options.
World Major Free Trade Agreements
North America- USMCA (United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement) – Replaced NAFTA in 2020
- CAFTA-DR (Central America-Dominican Republic FTA) – US and several Central American nations
Europe- European Union (EU) Single Market – Most comprehensive regional trade agreement
- European Free Trade Association (EFTA) – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland
Asia-Pacific- CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) – Includes Japan, Canada, Australia, and others
- RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) – Includes China, ASEAN, Australia, Japan, and others
Africa- AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area) – Largest FTA by number of participating countries (over 50)
Tariffs can help when applied selectively to protect certain domestic industries.
But they have never succeeded in revitalizing an economy when applied at such a large scale purely to "reduce trade deficits".
It is only fair that the US has a trade deficit with most countries.
The US household consumption is somewhere between 35 to 40% of world output.
Hence the US has a need to import more than they export.
Tariffs are neither going to fix this nor going to encourage domestic manufacturing especially when it is cost prohibitive.
It will just be passed on to the consumer causing inflation.
So I believe it will eventually fail but the damage that even short term tariffs do will be felt for a long time.
But they have never succeeded in revitalizing an economy when applied at such a large scale purely to "reduce trade deficits".
It is only fair that the US has a trade deficit with most countries.
The US household consumption is somewhere between 35 to 40% of world output.
Hence the US has a need to import more than they export.
Tariffs are neither going to fix this nor going to encourage domestic manufacturing especially when it is cost prohibitive.
It will just be passed on to the consumer causing inflation.
So I believe it will eventually fail but the damage that even short term tariffs do will be felt for a long time.
As long as the Trump-era tariffs remain in place, the American economy especially big manufacturers continues to struggle. The 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum raised the cost of raw materials, hitting industries like auto and agriculture hard. Ford and GM lost billions due to higher steel prices, and Ford alone lost $1 billion in 2018, leading to layoffs and production cuts. Tariffs on Chinese parts also made it more expensive to build things like smartphones and computers in the U.S., forcing companies like Apple and Cisco to raise prices or delay growth.
Other countries responded with their own tariffs, which made things worse. For example, China targeted American farm products like soybeans and pork, hurting U.S. farmers and reducing demand for farm equipment made by companies like John Deere. Smaller manufacturers, who rely on imported parts and materials, couldn’t absorb the higher costs and often had to cut jobs or shut down. Tariffs hurt the U.S. economy by raising costs, reducing trade, and limiting exports.
Other countries responded with their own tariffs, which made things worse. For example, China targeted American farm products like soybeans and pork, hurting U.S. farmers and reducing demand for farm equipment made by companies like John Deere. Smaller manufacturers, who rely on imported parts and materials, couldn’t absorb the higher costs and often had to cut jobs or shut down. Tariffs hurt the U.S. economy by raising costs, reducing trade, and limiting exports.
I believe that is one of the main reasons Trump is imposing these tariffs as it allows him and the broligarchy to extort all kinds of payoffs from other countries to line their pockets with.
a drop in treasury yields only reduces the cost of new issuance by the government, not existing fixed rate treasuries
floating rate treasuries represent 2 to 3% of all US treasuries
So a yield drop does not materially impact the US govt interest obligations
Rather it increases the price of US treasuries held by investors
note: Interest payments represent 20% of US government revenues
note 2: the 37 trillion in debt the US govt has accumulated in its 240 year history is projected to double in the next 9 years
This is a ticking time bomb as a insolvent US govt will create a world wide depression
trade deficits are far less a concern for a US economy which is 2/3 domestic
its is a problem but nowhere near as scary as the US govt debt bomb
He is trying to do multiple things all at once
i.e. tariffs revenue and doge efficiency to eliminate govt deficit
he should have focused on one issue and that is reducing the size of US govt
and if he was going to pick a trade war fight, pick that fight with one country and get an agreement, then move onto the next country
I also believe that Trump likes the chaos, anger, and protests he is triggering. In fact, I anticipate he will use the chaos as justification to declare emergency measures, call in the troops, suspend the constitution, etc. He will use the chaos to perpetrate a coup to stay in power…just like he tried to on Jan 6 except this time the whole country will be rioting.
It has never worked well and it will never work well.
In the best case scenario Trump's tariffs will succeed only partially.
Deficit is reduced and some segments of local manufacturing business
will bring in more investments. But overall American people will pay the
price of slower to reverse GDP growth.
Remember Ross Perot with his "giant sucking sound" referring to Mexico?
China is quite a different animal though.
Giant sucking sound - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
China is quite a different animal though.
Tariffs can be effective economic tools, but only when applied in a targeted and strategic manner. When designed to protect specific industries that are vital to national interests such as manufacturing or agriculture they can provide breathing room for domestic producers to remain competitive. However, broad-based or blanket tariffs on all imported goods often do more harm than good, leading to widespread price increases for American consumers and businesses. Aside from generating additional government revenue, the net economic impact of such sweeping tariffs is generally negative.
Tariffs on imported automobiles can offer a degree of protection to the U.S. auto industry, helping domestic manufacturers compete against lower-cost foreign alternatives. Yet, this protection is limited. Wealthier consumers may still opt for luxury vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz or BMW, particularly if those purchases can be written off as business expenses, thus mitigating the impact of higher prices.
American orange growers benefit from tariffs imposed on foreign citrus imports, especially from major producers like Mexico and Brazil. These measures help shield domestic agriculture from being undercut by cheaper or more abundant foreign produce. In cases like these, where the goal is to preserve a critical segment of the economy or national food supply, tariffs can play a valuable role.
Tariffs must be used with precision and purpose, not as a blunt instrument. When misapplied, they risk doing more damage to the economy than the protection they offer to any one sector.
