Will Trump’s Tariffs Stand or Fall?

[Ceiling Cat]

There’s growing speculation about the true purpose behind Trump’s tariff strategy. To me, it seems less about protecting American industry and more about deliberately destabilizing the economy to serve his own political and financial interests, a kind of economic roller coaster engineered for personal gain.
Already, we're seeing early signs of public backlash. Protests have erupted in response to the tariffs, and as prices continue to climb on essentials like gas, food, and housing. The discontent is only likely to intensify. The average consumer is starting to feel the squeeze, and if history is any guide, economic pain often translates into political consequences.
We’re also witnessing pushback from the private sector. Elon Musk, for example, is facing protests and even vandalism at Tesla dealerships, a reaction partly fueled by the economic ripple effects of trade policy uncertainty. Trump may soon find similar unrest targeting his branded properties, as public anger finds symbolic outlets.
Historically, protectionist policies haven’t ended well. The Hawley-Smoot Tariff was enacted in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash. Rather than lifting the American economy, it deepened the Great Depression and provoked retaliatory tariffs from other nations. Given this precedent, it’s baffling that Trump would pursue a similar course after a global pandemic, a moment when global cooperation and economic healing should be the priority.
IMHO, these tariffs won’t last. The economic consequences will become impossible to ignore, and Trump’s credibility may collapse well before the midterm elections. As pressure mounts from both the public and the business community, political support for the policy could erode rapidly.

 

[Valcazar]

From a Paul Krugman interview by Ezra Klein

----

Krugman: I think he’s got this very crude view that whenever somebody sells more to us than we buy from them, they’re taking advantage, and he’s going to end that. And people will see that he was smarter than everybody else all along.

There’s no indication that there’s any deeper agenda, any deeper thought.

If nothing else, anyone who thought that there was a bigger agenda — that there was some subtle reasoning going on here — the shape of those tariffs that were announced yesterday should tell you: No, it’s just that Donald Trump doesn’t like trade deficits, and he thinks the tariffs can cure them.

 

[oil&gas]

Surely some of the imposed tariffs will be modified. Trump's tariffs are
an act of a global bully. Depending on how effective some of the targets
of Trump's bullying in fighting back he would have to renegotiate with the
more powerful foes but continue bullying the weaker ones.

I see the weakest targets of Trump being Europe. They will have no choice
but to keep up with buying U.S. military junks to defend against Putin
and LNG at premium prices from the U.S. Trump may even consider
importing Russia's unwanted natural gas to Alsaska where the U.S.
can transport down to the western coast and exports it back to Europe
at hefty price of course.

 

[oil&gas]

.............................
If nothing else, anyone who thought that there was a bigger agenda — that there was some subtle reasoning going on here — the shape of those tariffs that were announced yesterday should tell you: No, it’s just that Donald Trump doesn’t like trade deficits, and he thinks the tariffs can cure them.

It is a fact that Donald Trump is not a very bright man among his
peers of world leaders. He thinks like a common man. He has at
best the wisdom of a not-too-dumb peasant rather than that of a typical
billionaire.

That being said, even a peasant would understand you cannot
spend more than you earn perpetually while debt servicing cost
is climbing with no end in sight.

While it is obvious Trump's tariff policy is devastating and
likely to fail none of its critics seem to have the solutions to
the issue Trump is trying to address. No country can spend
more than it earns while government and private debt has
long been accumulated to a level that stands little to no prospect
of ever being paid off. At some point the U.S. will have to import
less than it exports and its government would no longer be able
to fund its spending through debt financing. Trump's tariffs may fail
big time. But that won't save the U.S. from having to face the
day of reckoning eventually.

 

[squeezer]

Elon PUBLICLY ATTACKS Trump After TARIFFS SCREW HIM BADLY!

 

[Valcazar]

It is a fact that Donald Trump is not a very bright man among his
peers of world leaders.

I'm not sure why you are limiting this to "his peers as world leaders".

That being said, even a peasant would understand you cannot
spend more than you earn perpetually while debt servicing cost
is climbing with no end in sight.

What would that have to do with his tariffs?
They aren't about debt or the deficit.
That's not something Trump cares about anyway.

While it is obvious Trump's tariff policy is devastating and
likely to fail none of its critics seem to have the solutions to
the issue Trump is trying to address.

What issue do you think "Trump is trying to address" here?

No country can spend
more than it earns while government and private debt has
long been accumulated to a level that stands little to no prospect
of ever being paid off. At some point the U.S. will have to import
less than it exports and its government would no longer be able
to fund its spending through debt financing. Trump's tariffs may fail
big time. But that won't save the U.S. from having to face the
day of reckoning eventually.

This all assumes Trump is trying to reduce deficits by tariffs, but why would you think that?

 

[jeff2]

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=0e1667c85b9b427db9b2a78abbf4e3a2571043d99d797386b66be78178e0cfbaJmltdHM9MTc0MzgxMTIwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2bcbd943-dbe9-645a-0565-cc17daf665a0&psq=how+to+make+sense+of+trump%27a+tariffs&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvMzQzNmNkMjAtZjA5Zi00NmRkLTllOTQtYmExMGI4NmRlODNmP3Ryaz1mZWVkX21haW4tZmVlZC1jYXJkX2ZlZWQtYXJ0aWNsZS1jb250ZW50&ntb=1

 

[Valcazar]

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=0e1667c85b9b427db9b2a78abbf4e3a2571043d99d797386b66be78178e0cfbaJmltdHM9MTc0MzgxMTIwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2bcbd943-dbe9-645a-0565-cc17daf665a0&psq=how+to+make+sense+of+trump%27a+tariffs&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZnQuY29tL2NvbnRlbnQvMzQzNmNkMjAtZjA5Zi00NmRkLTllOTQtYmExMGI4NmRlODNmP3Ryaz1mZWVkX21haW4tZmVlZC1jYXJkX2ZlZWQtYXJ0aWNsZS1jb250ZW50&ntb=1

I'm not fond of trying to put an intellectual gloss on Trump's plans that aren't there, but since this boils down to "Trump thinks he has a stick, he wants to hit people with it", I largely agree.

 

[oil&gas]

They aren't about debt or the deficit.
That's not something Trump cares about anyway.

If I remember the data I looked up correctly yield of 10-year U.S.
treasury already has dropped by something like 0.8%. While that seems
trivial it does translate to sizeable reduction of interest payment
given a public debt as humungus as $38 trillion.

What issue do you think "Trump is trying to address" here?

The U.S. simply can't grow a consumer-based economy
while running a trade deficit forever. Eventually it will lose
its ability to manufacture most of the goods it wants to buy
from importers.

This all assumes Trump is trying to reduce deficits by tariffs, but why would you think that?

Don't know for sure if Trump has deficit reduction by tariffs on his mind.
But given that Trump doesn't like trade deficit according to your post or
the source in your post it is reasonable to assume Trump is trying to
reduce deficit.

 

[Valcazar]

If I remember the data I looked up correctly yield of 10-year U.S.
treasury already has dropped by something like 0.8%. While that seems
trivial it does translate to sizeable reduction of interest payment
given a public debt as humungus as $38 trillion.

Why do you think that is anything Trump cares about or thought about?

The U.S. simply can't grow a consumer-based economy
while running a trade deficit forever. Eventually it will lose
its ability to manufacture most of the goods it wants to buy
from importers.

The idea that trade deficits sort themselves out over time is pretty standard.

Don't know for sure if Trump has tariff reduction by tariffs on his mind.
But given that Trump doesn't like trade deficit according to your post or
the source in your post it is reasonable to assume Trump is trying to
reduce deficit.

No.
It isn't.
Trump doesn't give a flying fuck about those things.
He thinks people are ripping the US off and also it is a way to exert power over other people who will have to come crawling to him.

 

[oil&gas]

.....................
Trump doesn't give a flying fuck about those things.
He thinks people are ripping the US off and also it is a way to exert power over other people who will have to come crawling to him.

Trump can be the bully he is because the USD is world's reserve
currency and because the U.S. has the military might to back him.
Most of the world wants to export their goods to the U.S. because
they can use the USD they receive to buy things from anyone else.
Surely Trump will face retaliation but much of the world including
BRICS members like India will still try to find ways to talk down the
tariffs so as to continue trading with the U.S.

Other world economic powers are simply not in the position to
bully. They will have to find other ways to reduce deficit both in
foreign trade and government spending.

 

[Valcazar]

Trump can be the bully he is because the USD is world's reserve
currency and because the U.S. has the military might to back him.
Most of the world wants to export their goods to the U.S. because
they can use the USD they receive to buy things from anyone else.
Surely Trump will face retaliation but much of the world including
BRICS members like India will still try to find ways to talk down the
tariffs so as to continue trading with the U.S.

Other world economic powers are simply not in the position to
bully. They will have to find other ways to reduce deficit both in
foreign trade and government spending.

None of which has anything to do with Trump having a strategy intended to reduce the deficit by his tariffs.
That Trump is deeply stupid about the limits of his power doesn't mean he is actually doing something other than what he is doing.

 

[oil&gas]

None of which has anything to do with Trump having a strategy intended to reduce the deficit by his tariffs.
That Trump is deeply stupid about the limits of his power doesn't mean he is actually doing something other than what he is doing.

What Trump is doing will, if he succeeds, reduce the deficit. Whether he
will succeed or whether he is doing it because he is stupid or because he
just wants to bully is another matter.

Reduction of government debt of the U.S. and myriads of other
nations in the west (Canada included) is imperative. With the U.S.
trade deficit reduction and elimination is closely tied to reduction
of debt growth as well the debt itself. Trump may or may not succeed.
The other countries who refrain from the issue (Canada, UK, France,
Italy etc) are on a joyride to financial collapse and disintegration of society.

 

[riskparity]

seems like all they care about Jobs and 10 yr yields both doing well. Obviously time lag to see actual impacts but he might be more right than wrong. What I hate most is how Canada is basically dependent on Govt jobs for job creation. US gonna always have an edge and bully us since our private sector job creation is non existent

 

[wigglee]

Trump thinks it cool to suffer inflation for the time it takes to rebuild America's manufacturing sector (many years). But wait.... with AI and robots, hardly any humans need apply.

 

[oil&gas]

Trump thinks it cool to suffer inflation for the time it takes to rebuild America's manufacturing sector (many years). But wait.... with AI and robots, hardly any humans need apply.

If it takes price inflation of imported goods to force people to
buy less imports and invest more in local manufacturing industries
then hardship and a lower standard of living may have to be
the price to pay to reduce trade deficit. If trade deficit will sort itself
out like Trudeau's budget will balance itself then kicking the
can down the road could be the right thing to do at least for some
years. The U.S. debt is a ticking time bomb awaiting detonation
when it is eventually hit by the fateful step of can kicking.

 

[Jenesis]

I don’t think the tariffs with us will succeed. I think the are a means to get US companies into our competitive markets that they have been denied and a way to strengthen the boarder at our cost, not theirs. So I do think we will be able to work something out.

I think the positive is, Canada is now going to look else where for some things and look at being self sufficient at other things. I think this was a wake up call to the Canadian people and I think the US will feel it much longer down the road then we will.

Snow bird numbers will be down for years for example. While these tariffs will be gone in less then a year. The big tariffs anyways.

Other countries are screwed. I think he will hold fast on those.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking though.

 

[richaceg]

The tariffs is basically a revision of fair trade agreement...

 

[Frankfooter]

I don’t think the tariffs with us will succeed. I think the are a means to get US companies into our competitive markets that they have been denied and a way to strengthen the boarder at our cost, not theirs. So I do think we will be able to work something out.

I think the positive is, Canada is now going to look else where for some things and look at being self sufficient at other things. I think this was a wake up call to the Canadian people and I think the US will feel it much longer down the road then we will.

Snow bird numbers will be down for years for example. While these tariffs will be gone in less then a year. The big tariffs anyways.

Other countries are screwed. I think he will hold fast on those.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking though.

This sadly won't make the news in the states, but its a big deal.
I think this is the beginning of the end of trump.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908633613916057809

 

[Ceiling Cat]

Surely some of the imposed tariffs will be modified.

The U.S. president has limited power to impose tariffs without Congress. When Trump put tariffs in place, he did so by claiming they were needed for national security or to stop drugs like fentanyl from coming across the border.
These tariffs could be challenged in court. Some experts believe they may be illegal because they go against trade rules the U.S. agreed to under the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). If these challenges succeed, the tariffs could be removed or changed.
The president has some power over trade, there are legal limits and international agreements that must be followed.

Trump can be the bully he is because the USD is world's reserve
currency and because the U.S. has the military might to back him.

The U.S. dollar is currently the world’s main reserve currency, which gives the U.S. a lot of global power. When Trump placed tariffs on many countries, it made those countries realize how vulnerable they are to U.S. decisions. Even if someone like Trump never becomes president again, many nations may still try to reduce their dependence on the dollar. Some could shift part of their reserves to the proposed BRICS “Unit” currency to protect themselves from future U.S. pressure.
There are also questions about whether the U.S. military would fully support Trump or someone like him in the future. If an order was given to take the Panama Canal by force, would the generals obey? The American military has little confidence in the Trump administration, many would resist if they believed the actions were unlawful or unconstitutional.
Foreign governments and the U.S. military may not blindly follow a president if they believe the actions go too far.


Just 10 weeks into Tramp's second presidential term, massive protest have erupted around the world. His reputation will be in tatters by the time the mid term elections roll around. I would not be surprised if there will be massive protest at his Trump branded properties where they will smash, loot and burn anything with the Trump name on it.