Week 7 NFL- once in a while the sun will shine on a dog's ass

[healer677]

Unbelievably lucky on Week 6 - hoping to continue the trend. This thread will be updated with the latest available lines (starting with the Stardust lines up to and including the early OLGC Point Spread lines) until Friday morning.

Some early Stardust numbers are up-more to come tomorrow.

Colts vs Texans 0-5 54/141 - The Colts are coming off a Monday night beating of StL Some people will say -the Colts won because Bulger got hurt early...well, like I say -so what? That's football. There are no what ifs, only wins and losses. Manning showed why he's the best QB in the league, the D showed up and shut the Rams down with their back up QB at the helm . As for the Texans, I don't even know what to say...ok - the good news -Carr only got turfed three times against Seattle, in Seattle. Everything else is bad -they lost 42-10 only 14 first downs, 227 total yards, 160 passing (pathetic), 67 rushing (pitiful). 6 for 16 on 3rd down conversions - its bad enough they converted less than 50%, but they're in 3rd down calls that much. Carr was 19 for 33 179 yds and a td. RB Davis had 40 yds on 18 carries (2 yds a carry? wow). Houstons D allowed 2 3rd and long (really long) rushing conversions for 1st downs - they have no D line, the linebackers tackle like girlscouts and the secondary stinks. Indy will win. Period. By how much? maybe 3 tds? possibly more. Maybe Manning is going for a bonus -in which case, Houston is dead.lol. Stardust has this at 16 -I'll take 16 all day.

Steelers 3-2 122/82 3-2 in conference games vs Bengals 5-1 155/84 3-1 conference - The Steelers looked painfully average without Ben and Ward. Ben is scheduled to start, I'm more curious about Ward playing. The Steelers are not as good without Ben (although to me he just manages games -he doesn't go out and necessarily win them).The Jacksonville loss was huge 23-17 - because now, teams aren't afraid of them anymore (kind of like New England) - the defenses vs their O line was more ferocious. Maddox was 11-28 154 yds 1 td and 3 ints (thats huge). 16 1st dns only 218 total yards (145 pass, only 73 rush) - Bettis and Parker 21 attempts for 55 yds (I think it's time to get the Bus rolling again, Parker for the 3rd week, looks like a rookie). They couldn't buy a 3rd down 1-12 with 4 turnovers. The Steelers are beatable -I'm taking the Bengals. Palmer can play- 148 passing plays without an int. This team is disciplined (4 penalties) and they are efficient (24 first downs, no turn overs). They beat the Titans at home 31-23. This is a divisional game -a Bengal win will stretch their divisional lead against the Steelers. Bengals are favored in Vegas by 1.5.

Lions 2-3 91/96 1-3 conf vs Browns 2-3 68/90 0-3 conf - Personally, I wouldn't bet this game. Both teams suck. Detroit lost at home vs Car 21-20. Harrington has about 2 weeks before he loses his job, after 4 years its time to show something. They had a minute left for the win - 1 minute and they couldn't hold on...at home AGAINST a 75 year old back up QB who hasnt seen daylight since 2002! The Lions had 11 first downs (bad), 4 for 15 on 3rd downs (holy shit bad!) 209 total yds (157 pass,52 rush-are you kidding) 3 fumbles and 1 int. Harringtons individual numbers were ok - 17/28 for 201 yds but no throwing tds and 1 int. The only bright spot was Kennedy on D -10 solo tackles, 12 total. Cleveland was shut down by Baltimore-16 to 3. These yoyos werent much better than Detroit 12 first downs, 3 turnovers, 4 for 11 in 3rd downs, 186 total yds (116 pass, 70 rush) Dilfer was 16/30 147, 0 tds and 1 int - I guess this will quiet some of the people who were whining when the Ravens cut Dilfer -Dilfer sucks. But like I said in the past, all things being equal; if you have to bet, bet on the QBs. But...what if they both equally suck? Stardust opened this at Cle -2.5.

Niners 1-4 79/160 4 losses in a row vs Skins 3-2 83/86 lost 2 in a row- Tough road loss for Wsh in KC 28-21 (didn't cover by .5 -darn it). The offense looked great again, 2nd week in a row, 2 losses - with these numbers how do they lose? 26 first downs, 398 total yards (297 pass, 101 rush) Moss went for 10 balls for 173 yds and 2 tds. Brunnell 25/41 331y 3 tds and no ints. Now it's the 3 turnovers that screwed them - if they can take care of the ball -they win. Simple. Is Arrington becoming a distraction? Screw him -don't trade him (nobody wants this goof) and don't cut him( he keeps his signing bonus), let him sit. Besides Warrick Holdman ( a journeyman player) is a better fit as a strong side linebacker and Marcus Washington is solid. The Niners are coming off a bye....also coming off their 4th loss in a row. Fact of the matter is -they don't score much and they give up a ton of points. They're minus 81 -thats more than they scored all year. This is going to be a tough road game, in an inhospitable environment, with possibly shitty weather. Give it to the skins. But stardust opened this at Skins -10.5. Thats a lot, hopefully it'll go down.

 

[healer677]

I hate this matchup.

It's the immovable object meeting the unstoppable force.

Packers 1-4 124/95 vs Vikings 1-4 67/135 - GB is coming off a bye and a huge win vs NO -that's good. GB can't win in domes - that's a fact. Minnesota...sucks. They couldn't score on Chicago (they got 3 points) and they couldn't STOP Chicago from scoring. They gave up 28 points vs the Bears..28! Culpepper is struggling 26/48 fro 237yds no tds and 2 ints - 12 for the year. Minn had 16 first downs, 14 penalties (some of them cost ponts that were nullified) and 2 turnovers. RB Moore only had 57 yds on 14 carries. Tice is a bone head (in the absence of Martz -Tice wins this crown) - he is an unbelievably bad coach and a bad leader (scalper) on a team full of boating whore mongers.lol. ok guys- OVER OR UNDER? Will Zygi Wilf fire Tice before week 8 or after? Take the Packs - at least they can score -on a 1-4 record they're plus 29 on points. I hope they make the Packs dogs.

Chiefs 3-2 119/112 2-1 conf vs Dolphins 2-3 95/98 lost 2 in a row -KC can score but their D is still shaky even with the offseason "improvements". I'm still not sure why TE Gonzalez is blocking-send him out for patterns.I thought Roufs comeback was going to fix this problem? KCs win vs Wsh was good 28-21. Green didnt do anything crazy 15/25 181 y 1 td no ints. They moved the chains well enough with 18 1sr downs 274 yds total (178 pass, 96 rush). But RB Holmes had a monster game with 2 tds. As for Miami, I like Saban but his team priorities are screwy. RB Williams is a non factor who doesn't give a shit about the game or his team (look up his post game comments) Frerotte played ok 21/43 267 yds no tds but no ints. The offense was a mess- 13 first downs, 64 yds rushing, 3-14 in 3rd down conversions, 1-3 in 4th down conversions and 2 turn overs. Get rid of Williams before he causes more harm - he might get back to his previous form, but; after a year off, a mediocre camp amd a 4 game suspension -this guy is not ready to play. Period. I like the Chiefs. Stardust has them -2.5.

Saints 2-4 102/173 lost 2 vs Rams - Vitt has been around for a long time. The Rams are coming off a Monday night thumping by the Colts. When Martz was around, I used to have a 10 point Martz factor. This means, at any given time Martz can gain or can cost StL 10 points from boneheaded challenges or play calls. Life was simple. But Vitt is different - he's a double tight end, max protect, establish the run -no hook and ladder, no statue of liberty, no double reverse in the red zone kind of guy. Vitt is a competent coach leading a solid team that until now, had a maniac for a head coach. That being said -nobody could have foreseen Bulger getting run over like a tackling dummy- if he's not 100% StLouis is in trouble. STL looked bad without Bulger, they couldn't do shit on both sides of the ball - if Bulger doesn't play, I'll take NO plus points. NO got screwed in Atlanta...in OT none the less 31-28 -a defnsive holding on a game winning field goal try? Are you kidding?! - that's total horse shit. Their numbers looked great -32 first downs, 3 for 7 3rd downs, 456 yds(245 pass, 211 rush -this is great) Brooks got hit for 2 sacks and an int but 22/33 259 2 tds...not bad. NO beats themselves at times (18 turnovers) but these guys will show up when you last expect them -Brooks has a cannon. This game makes me nervous.

Chargers 3-3 176/126 vs Eagles 3-2 122/101 - Phi is coming off a bye -they needed it-this team is banged up. The Eagles have to shake off that terrible game in Dallas before the bye. This can very well be a shoot out. LT is the best player in the game right now -vs OAK he ran, caught and threw for tds - 31 carries for 140 yds. Oak was a big road win 27-14. Brees was efficient if not a bit boring with 14/20 for 164 yds and 1 td. Stardust has Phi -4, I don't know about that.

To Be Continued...next, afternoon games.

 

[healer677]

Afternoon and Monday night game week 7

Cowboys 4-2 137/111 2 wins in a row vs Seahawks 4-2 168/117 2 wins in a row -Battle of the division leaders. Dal had a close call vs the NYG 16-13 in OT. Dallas did everything they could to lose that game- they were lucky. They moved the chains nicely with 25 1st downs and 385yds of offense and owned the clock with a 17 min t.o.p.. But, they had 2 missed field goals, and int, 4 turnovers, 9-16 in 3rd down conversions. RB J Jones didn't play and his back up Thomas got 47 yds no tds in 21 carries (not good).The loss of LT Flozell Adams is huge! Cement-shoes Bedsoes weak side will be exposed-watch them blitz on Bledsoe's weak side/blind side all day. The Seahawks beat the living Jesus out of Houston. Seattle was a better team and they flexed their muscle large 42-10. The offensive numbers were amazing -31 1st downs, 459 yds(139 pass, 320 rush), they had 2 RBs with 100 plus yd games( Alexander 22 for 141 and 4 tds and Morris 8 for 104 and 1 td), 7-11 on 3rd downs, 3-3 on 4th downs with only 1 turnover. Hasselbeck had a slow day 14/20 168, 1 td, 1 int. I think up to this point Tuna's boys have been lucky -I like the Seahawks. Stardust has the Seahawks by a fg for openers.

Titans 2-4 126/157 vs Cards 1-4 94/134 - This game is hurting-almost as bad as the Lions/Browns game. AZ is coming off a bye- thank God. Tenn is looked horrible overall but they did have some bright spots. Tenn the GOOD -McNair 26/41 for 259 yds, 21 first downs, 377 yds total offense, 50 % 3rd down conversions, RB Brown 18 for 84 with 2 tds and only 5 penalties (only the Bengals did better here). The BAD - 3 turn overs, 2 ints. I like Tenn on this match up, but this can get ugly. AZ is favored in the opener by 3.

Broncos 5-1 129/107 3-1 conf vs Giants 3-2 149/114 3-1 conf - The division leader Broncos travel to NY for a meeting with JRs boys. Against the 'Boys the Giants beat themselves in the second half- 1 int and 3 fumbles in the first 5 drives..but they were playing poorly thru out, 11 1st downs, 1-11 in 3rd down conversions, 4 turnovers and minus 17 minutes in t.o.p.. Manning had a mediocre game 14/30 215, 1 td,1int. Shockey had a good game 5 for 129 and a td. Den had a scare late vs NE but came out ahead 28-20. They had a 25 point lead. Plummer did enough to win 17/24 262 and 2 tds -he has a streak of 17 quartes without an int, he had a good steady game. The sack he took did more to win that game for the Broncos- in the past the Snake would have tried to force it and he would have been picked -the sack was the best thing he could do to protect the ball. If Bailey doesn't play, look for the Giants to run multi-reciever sets with Shockey. If Bailey doesn't play and if the Giants are dogs by more than 5 -I'll take them. But no such luck! Stardust has the Giants opening at -1.5....I'll still take that.

Ravens 2-3 63/90 vs Bears 3-3 3-1 @ home - This is going to be a great game. Lewis vs Urlacher. Urlacher was all over Culpepper last week (got 2 sacks). The Bears offense is horrible ..but so are the Ravens. Orton was 16/25 117 yds 2 tds and 1 int. It was a big win at home vs the Vikes 28-3. TE Clark caught 2 tds -but the Bears turned the ball over 3 times. Tha Ravens offense is anemic ut they had a solid win in Cleveland 16-3. The Ravens got all their points in the first half and concentrated on shutting down the Browns (which they did) after the lead was established. Lewis had a big game -1 int and 1 fumble recovery. Wright was competent 23/31 213 1 td, 1int and.....here's the biggest improvement - they only got flagged 11 times (instead of 21). This is a pick 'em. Stardust has Chi -1.

Bills 3-3 95/100 2 wins in a row 3-0 conf vs Raiders 1-4 90/116 0-3 conference - I love these Bills! They are playing with passion, heart - everybody has a little zip now, Moulds and Smith are visibly happy. This is what happens when you trust your QB. The Bills are division leaders (despite Lose-man and their meat head coach Mularky). Holcomb had an average game 18/26 172 yds 2 tds and 2 ints. The Jets were a mess and the Bills took advantage of it. The Raiders are in trouble -if Moss is hurt, that is a serious concern. LaMont Jordan is struggling form the backfield as well (39 yds). Moss might have smoked his groin and ribs. The loss to SD hurt 27-14 Collins went 24/48 (too many attempts) 292 and no tds PLUS I jinxed him by pointing out the " he hasn't been picked all year" comment -he gave up an int. I like Buffalo large here.

Monday Night
Jets 2-4 78/112 vs Falcons 4-2 148/199 - Vinny magic is over....his staring center Mawae is out for the year...they're going to lose this one. I like "Hot"lanta with a hobbling Vick to cover an easy 7 to 9 here.
Stardust opened the Falcons at -7.5...that still a good value.

Good luck gents!

 

[RTRD]

The Bears are only 2-3...

Ravens 2-3 63/90 vs Bears 3-3 3-1 @ home

The Bears are only 2-3...don't ask me how I know this...

 

[ottawasub]

- If they stay as 4 point underdogs, then I think San Diego will be my anchor pick next week. If we take the general rule that home field advantage gets a team 3 points in the spread, then that would mean if this were a neutral site game, Philly would still be favoured by a point. That doesn`t make sense as the Chargers have clearly been the better team over the last month. It looks like the Eagles are being rated on what they`ve done in the past and not what they`ve done this year.

- It was tough to see New Orleans totally outplay Atlanta but still lose on a couple of dubious calls. Usually when a team loses a game they deserved to win, they`re a good bet to win the following week. Good luck and bad luck evens out. But the chances of the Saints playing two good games in a row is not something I`m comfortable betting on.

- Arizona 3 pt favourites over Tennessee? Am I missing an obvious reason that would justify that?

- After taking the Pats, Eagles, Colts, Broncos and Seahawks, I think the Redskins will be my survivor pool pick this week. Even with the big 10.5 pt spread, I can still see them covering it easily. The 49ers offense is so impotent that Washington may only have to score 14 points to cover.

- Is there a chance that Ricky Williams will shake off the rust, or is he a lost cause? I couldn`t believe what a non-factor he was.

- After the debacle against Jacksonville without him, are you guys going to give Big Ben a little more credit for how well Pittsburgh played with him?

- Remember when Green Bay vs. Minnesota was always a game to look forward to?

 

[healer677]

Random thoughts...

- The best defender for the Texans (Kailee Wong)is out for the year with a season ending knee injury -can this team possibly get crappier?

- The Titans just lost their only reciever, Drew Bennett; now they have to rely on a rookie (Brandon Jones) and a third year player who isn't ready as well (Tyrone Calico).

- With the resurgence of Holcomb I guess Lose-man should learn hot to hold a clipboard along with Rivers. Barring a season ending injury, I can't see JP playing another game in Buffalo.

- Tedy Bruschi's decision scares me....I hope it doesn't affect his teammates on the field too much (who am I kidding?). But maybe his presence will inspire one of the younger players in the secondary (here's hoping).

- If Orton can get it through his head NOT to throw long passes to Muhammad (though tempting), they'll have more wins. For Orton, manage the game; don't try to win it.

-Cowher caught Martzitis. The week before the Bus carried three times at the end of the game to give Fisher a shot for the game winning fg...same situation vs Jacksonville, he goes with Parker (who's had terrible games the past 3) and in this drive it goes for -1 yard and a fumble on a pitch. Why is Bettis there then? if not for those exact situations?

-The Bengals are ranked 21st in run defense at 117 yds/game....hmmmm...

- What is wrong with Ravens RB Jamal Lewis? He looks awful this year -is he hurt? Is it a contract issue?

-Chris Simms? Not Phil's kid? ok- in an interview a while back -Simms admitted that he couldn't grasp the complexity of Chuckie's play calling ...oh boy. Simms is more mobile and has a better arm...but has only started twice. The good news? He goes vs the Niners after a bye.

- I hope FS Hamlin is ok -he's probably done in football -too bad though, since Seattle is looking good.

-Kurt or Josh? I love Warner but it's time to sit down..he wont be 100% plus the kid has looked great the past two games (783 yards).

- I still can't figure how the Cheifs won.

 

[healer677]

Early Point Spread list

ok -gents here's the early list. For the early bird bettors good luck!

Game Number.....Visitors......Home......

01 NO / StL -3.5 - rumor has it that Bulger will be out until Nov 6th, that being the case NO is totally inconsistent, but I like them as an outside pick.

02 GB -2.5 / Min - the Vikings are a mess, GB has been good against the spread so far and the Vikings have been terrible. GB should do this.

03 Ind -14.5 / Hou - this is a huge spread. But Vegas has Indy at -16. this looks like a bargain. I'll take Indy.

04 Pit -2.5 / Cin - Ben is in, but is he 100%. Ward is still out. If Pit insists on using Parker, they wont be able to take advantage of the Bengals' soft run D

05 SD / Phi -4.5 - I'll take SD as an outside bet. I didn't like what I saw in Dallas. Is McNabb hurting more than we cann see?

06 KC -1.5 / Mia - I think the Miami's clubhouse is shaky - KC can win this game...play Gonzalez already!

07 Det / Cle -2.5 - I'll put my money on the coaches. Mariucci has worn his welcome, the "Mr. Nice Guy" approach isn't working anymore- go Browns.

08 SF / Wsh -10.5 - Wsh got screwed their last 2 games (2 losses), their numbers were far better than their opponents-they'll beat on SF on Sunday

09 Dal / Sea -3.5 - Good evening game. Can Alexander and Co. carry the momentum? Has Keyshawn and Drew kissed and made up? Take Seattle.

10 Buf / Oak -2.5 - Moss out ...Oakland in trouble. But can Holcomb win on the road? - if he does, bye bye Losman. I'll take the Bills here.

11 Bal / Chi -2.5 - oh God - no bet.lol

12 Ten / Arz -2.5 - Tenn is in quiet trouble. It's hard to bet against the kid right now. Plus at home? I'll take Arizona (never thought I'd say that).

13 Den / NYG -2.5 - Power ranking wise, Denver is a much better team. So why am I taking the Giants? Curious to see if the team can bounce back

14 NYJ / Atl -6.5 - The Jets are a mess...not as bad as the Vikings or the Lions but pretty damn close. I'll take Vick.


Unbelievable - these are tight spreads, it will be a tougher week...I might play a little conservatively on the parlays and teasers. I'm not even going to try over/unders.

 

[homonger]

Now that I astoundingly have had two winning weeks in a row, I can no longer tell you that picking the opposite of me is a sure thing. Still recommended, however.

This week:

GB +1.5 vs. MIN
WASH -11.5 vs. Sf
SEA -3.5 vs. Dal
OAK -3.5 vs. Buff
Tenn +2.5 vs. ARIZ

As mentioned ,GB has covered its last two games, and Minnesota can't do anything right these days. Washington has proved its mettle in two straight tough road games so SF at home should be a breeze, even with the big point spread. I like Dallas, but I don't know if they are ready to take their show on the road. I like Buffalo, but similarly, I only seem to like them in Orchard Park. I don't see how Arizona could be favored over anyone, and Tennesee has played pretty well this year, despite a losing record.

If I had more $, I'd also consider CHI -1.5 vs. Balt, Sd +4.5 vs. PHIL, CIN -1.5 vs. Pitt, and CLE -2.5 vs. Det.

 

[ottawasub]

All right, thanks to the Chiefs I`m 1-0 so far this week, which means I won`t have to rebuy all my tickets today. Choices for tomorrow:

Chargers over Eagles: Philly is 6-0 under Reid following bye weeks, but this years Eagle team doesn`t look to be as strong as those past editions and the Chargers are simply a better team right now.

Vikings over Packers: Back in Week 1, Healer pointed out that Green Bay can`t win in domes; I took them anyway and watched them lose to Detroit. Don`t want to make that mistake again. Pro-Line has the Pack as 3.5 favs which seems too high. Tice`s job may be on the line here, so he`ll likely pull out every trick he knows.

Steelers over Bengals: Probably letting my bias as a Steeler fan influence me here, but Cincy hasn`t looked as good in their last 3 games as they did in their first 3. Ben, even hurting, won`t make the mistakes Maddox did.

Titans over Cardinals: As homonger pointed out, Arizona doesn`t deserve to be favoured against anybody. Tennessee, despite their problems, are still way better than the Cards; getting 2.5 pts on them is just a bonus.

Giants over Broncos: Eli seems to have problems with crowd noise on the road, but he`s unstoppable at home. NYG needs this game badly, while Denver may have a hard time getting up for this after beating New England.

Browns over Lions: Dilfer vs. Harrington. Easy choice.

Also like Redskins, Jets and Raiders

 

[healer677]

here we go- more changes

ok- So KC won and I'm off to a good start...but...

- Lions - rumor has it Garcia will start. The Harrington era may end this Sunday.

- Eagles got some much needed help on D - Darwin Walker will plug holes in the D-line, this is a big deal. I don't know what the hell RB Westbrook is thinking -he called out Andy Ried this week. Nobody calls out Reid, ask Trotter. Watch for the Eagles to throw all day against Quentin Jammer.

- Titans are starting Volek -thank God I took Arizona. Titans as dogs on the early spreads are making sense now.

- Tice is going to bench players involved in the "Love Boat" scandal or Minnetonkagate. I know GB has a hard time winning in domes (specially this dome) but really, how much worse can it get for the Vikings?

Good luck and good betting!

 

[ottawasub]

- Eagles got some much needed help on D - Darwin Walker will plug holes in the D-line, this is a big deal. I don't know what the hell RB Westbrook is thinking -he called out Andy Ried this week. Nobody calls out Reid, ask Trotter. Watch for the Eagles to throw all day against Quentin Jammer.

What are these guys thinking? First Owens pulls all that crap in training camp and now Westbrook`s stirring things up. Reid and Philadelphia are absolutely the last coach and team in the NFL that will stand for these stunts. The players should already know this.

 

[gridiron]

Lions starting Garcia. 3 Time pro bowler could be the difference

 

[sarasota]

...Holcomb had an average game 18/26 172 yds 2 tds and 2 ints....

I am no football expert, and I knew Holcomb was not the most proven quarterback, but it seems to have paid off to bring him on board. Maybe he'll get new life and be able to take the Bills to the playoff. At first it seemed dumb, but now it seems like a great move to have sat Losman out and go for the gold.

 

[homonger]

Crap, crap, and triple crap! After seeing a bit of progress the last two weeks, I reverted to my hapless form again today.

The Packers fold like a cheap suit in the 2nd half, and even though I mocked the Cardinals, it is now even more inexcusable to bet on the Titans. And the Seahawks, the wonderful Seahawks who have done so well for me the last couple of weeks, couldn't cover and barely won the game. When Babineaux makes that interception at the end of the game, I am yelling at him to get into the endzone so the Seahawks cover, but no. Then I am rooting for Brown to miss the FG so the game can go into overtime and I have a chance to cover. But he makes it.

Luckily, I scraped together enough coin to make an additional bet on the Bears, so that made the day even at least.

 

[shack]

Another mediocre week for me, 5-7-1. There were tons of great finishes though. That kick by Edinger (Vikes) was amazing, 56 yds. St. Louis turned it around in the 4th and NYG won on the last play (still didn't cover).

I'm still alive in my survivor. I took Wash. No one has been knocked out in the last 3 weeks. Still 7 guys left although I'm hoping the 2 guys who took Atlanta tomorrow get turfed.

 

[ottawasub]

Had a not bad day, won on a couple of tickets, but would`ve raked in a lot more if Tennessee didn`t suck. I hope they lose every game for the rest of the year.

I`m still alive in my survivor too thanks to Washington. There`s only two of us left, and even though I barely know the guy we`ve somehow made the same picks every week (NE, Phi, Ind, Cin, Den, Sea, Wsh). I`m thinking of using Dallas over Arizona next week, but might go with Pittsburgh over Baltimore instead.

 

[homonger]

Had a not bad day, won on a couple of tickets, but would`ve raked in a lot more if Tennessee didn`t suck. I hope they lose every game for the rest of the year.

Yeah, ditto. I made a lot of money betting against Tennessee last year, but I really did think they had played somewhat decently this year, despite being only 2-4. Tennessee plus a field goal (roughly) against a lousy Arizona team seemed like a good idea at the time. But I learned my lesson. Tennessee stinks.