When was he accused of using public funds for this?
They didn't do the same thing, so no.
Are you saying charges should be invented about them?
Verdict reached in Trump hush money trial
- Thread starter Phil C. McNasty
- Start date
Are you saying charges should be invented about them?
Latest three polls according to your site show Trump losing ground and Biden passing him.
He is, indeed.
On a steady downward slide over the last 4 polls.
Of course, all of that is margin of error and no one should think these are predicting the outcome at this point.
Maybe Trump shouldn't have committed so many previous bad acts that even after the judge prevented the prosecution from bringing up most of them, there were still so many that were eligible?
(The prosecution asked to bring up 13 things, the judge only approved 6.)
Look at the dates. Those PA polls were taken 2 weeks before the guilty verdict, smartypants.
Also as of today Trump is up in the general election as well: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
But the general election is meaningless anyways, so I dont know why you brought it up
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So your entire original post was completely bullshit since you linked to that page even earlier than I did?
Awesome.
Glad you admitted it.
Because you did.
If you don't want to talk about general election polls, stop linking to them and acting as if it proves anything.
You insisted that the trend was in his direction.
I looked and it wasn't.
It still isn't.
It is obviously statistical noise if you look at that page.
If you want to come back in a couple of weeks when there are a series of polls post-conviction, go right ahead.
Yup, I missed it. But so did you
Is irrelevant as far as the election goes, but it does show nationally that people havent turned away from Trump because he was convicted in court.
Thats why I brought it up
Here's where you are wrong.
In your post Trump was up only 0.3 nationally.
Now he's back at 0.8.
Clearly most people dont give a shit that he's a convicted felon
Not really.Yup, I missed it. But so did you
All I did was link to the pages you linked to and show you were wrong on the face of it.
So it matters if you think it supports you and it doesn't matter if you think it doesn't?
Well, at least you are honestly dishonest, I guess.
Which isn't what you argued.
You argued it was improving his position.
The fact is these aren't particularly useful and are basically statistical noise.
If you really wanted to make a statement about whether or not there has been an effect, you would take a clue from your comment on the PA polls and look at the dates.
The verdict came down on the 30th. So if you ignore the poll that straddles that (I&I/TIPP) that was conducted 5/29-5/31 and hilariously comes out as a Tie so is easy to find, you can take the 7 polls before the verdict and the 7 polls after.
Before the verdict: Average is Trump up by 1.8
After the verdict: Average is a tie.
Now, that probably has to do with me calculating by just using the win margins.
If we do it using the numbers they list...
Before the verdict: Trump 47.1 / Biden 45.3 (Trump +1.8)
After the verdict: Trump 45.5 / Biden 45.5 (Tie)
Nope, it comes out exactly the same.
In order to get Trump's lead you have to take the last 9 polls (making sure to include the poll that has him at +5 from the 28th).
Which is odd, since if you wanted to do the last 10 polls you would have exactly 2 weeks worth. (Which would still have Trump ahead by 0.6)
So who knows what criteria they are using to choose their cut off dates.
But as I said, I wouldn't be TOO concerned about the polls anyway outside of some time for broad trends to solidify.
Right, but you still missed the dates
No idea what you're trying to say here with your jibberishSo it matters if you think it supports you and it doesn't matter if you think it doesn't?
Well, at least you are honestly dishonest, I guess.
Okay, but that still doesnt change the fact that according to all polls Trump's criminal conviction hasnt dented his popularity.
So its another FAIL for the Dummycrats who were hoping Trump numbers would come down if he was convicted
Unsurprising.
Two problems.
One - it does appear to have dented his popularity given the numbers RCP has.
(I just don't have a lot of faith in the polls.)
Two - your belief that the only reason he was prosecuted was as an election ploy is delusional.
Trumps campaign song : https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...wqsBegQIPBAG&usg=AOvVaw3TnRZFrhRwoaD8wpNagC-u
Its only delusional to people who lack common sense.
There's a reason why this meme rings true (note the common sense particle)
I think you and others are being disingenuous with your responses and how much you portray here about the case.
There's nothing there unless one believes the hush money payment was a campaign finance violation. Having Congress pay-off MILLIONS to those who were sexually harassed is essentially institutionalized hush money. It certainly was a gentlemen's agreement to protect members and their re-election campaigns. It's kind of remarkable that our two parties worked together to execute this over many years and keep quiet about it. Bravo Congress!
But yeah in order to keep up your argument, you have to dismiss it with another flippant "it's not the same thing". Many people disagree.
It's been said over and over the misclassification itself is a big nothing without first a felony being demonstrated and proven with the payment. So this mess that came out of this NY court will need to be sorted out by an appeals court. Was Trump and his defense team adequately instructed by the prosecutor what felony initially occurred in advance of the trial? Were they allowed to make their case to the jury that a felony did not occur with the actual payment?
My favorite comment comes from the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board:
"On the law, though, the case was a bizarre turducken, with alleged crimes stuffed inside other crimes."
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Even if we all have faith in polls, I'm not sure the numbers have moved enough to change the course of the election now or later.
However from my perspective, the Democrats are now in a really bad place. They (NY Dems) have caught the mouse. Now what?
1) Sentence Trump to jail? Will that change voters minds to Biden or make Trump sympathetic?
2) Probation? Certainly some independent voters will ask "all that time and money for that?"
Think about it. The felony conviction was the best they could have hoped for and it has passed.
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if only Trump testified and told us why right before the election he paid a porn star a ton of money and then doubled it to offset cohen taxes, then maybe one would not believe that it was a campaign finance violation
In our system of law here in the United States, crimes aren't assessed based on speculation. It's quite an amazing concept if you break it down.
Anyway, we have precedence in campaign finance law that basically says that candidates and their friends/supporters can preserve the appearance and reputation of candidates. There is no delineation between whether it is purely for personal reasons or for campaign purposes.
That's just the way Federal campaign finance law has worked. It was probably for the best as it would lead (and had led in the past i.e. John Edwards) to elected prosecutors trying to take down politicians for political benefit. Unfortunately, "getting Trump" seems to have made people lose their sense of direction with the law.
As far as why it happened before the election is irrelevant. I hear people say that it was too close to the election. It doesn't matter if it was one year before, six months before or whatever because we don't have to codify legal personal expenses. Besides, the amazing thing is that if this payment was classified as the prosecutor argues it would have been 2017 when is was reported.
By the way, you are bringing up some type of extraneous tax matter. The IRS is not pursuing charges as grossing up payments to cover a tax liability is not illegal as long as the IRS gets their cut.
grossing up is not illegal per se but such an extravagant expense creates an irresistible inference that trump knew this payment to be illegal...and surprise surprise! 12 people accepted it beyond a reasonable doubt
