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Addict2sex

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Preparing for Defeat
Clown World’s pet politicians and intellectuals are beginning to change the Narrative and prepare the public for its inevitable defeat in Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not end in victory for Kiev, and its Western backers should prepare for such an outcome, Czech President Petr Pavel has told The Guardian newspaper.
“I think we should do anything… at our disposal to encourage Ukrainians and to support them to be successful. But internally, we should also be ready for other contingencies,” said Pavel, who was in London for the coronation of King Charles III.
A lot will depend on the outcome of Ukraine’s planned spring counteroffensive, explained the Czech leader, who has a background in intelligence and served as chairman of the NATO Military Committee between 2015 and 2018.
The outcome is not in doubt. While the game still needs to be played out, the Russians are as confident of victory now as they were in 1943, when Stalin, post-Tehran, commented: “Roosevelt has given me his firm word to open extensive actions in France in 1944. I think he will keep his word. And if he doesn’t keep his word, we are strong enough to crush Hitler and Germany on our own.”
Notice that Clown World strategist emeritus, who was among the first clowns to recognize that the neoliberal world order was in decline back in 2014, is now openly predicting a negotiated settlement brokered by the Chinese…
 
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Addict2sex

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Eurasia note #77 - Ukraine: The War Everyone Saw Coming
The dispossession of human and mineral in the service of Mammon
MAY 5, 2023


  • Drones sanitise bloodshed, mixing video games with reality television
  • On the ground, women shield their menfolk from the draft
  • The media that doesn’t fight beats the drum for another offensive

  • European leaders admit that since 2014 they made a pretence of peace
  • U.S. Congress resolution would make victory over Russia integral to foreign policy
  • Whom do they serve but finance capital that eyes Ukraine’s resources?

  • Corporations had primed the media on the need to “open up” Ukraine
  • We witness a more brazen version of the provocation and subversion of Germany
  • Do we need to restate that the same investors own the banks, military and media?

  • President Zelenskiy flees Ukraine prior to fireworks above the Kremlin
  • Russia responds with attacks on Kyiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia
  • Are the dice loaded or do they tumble where they may?
See Part Two: Eurasia note #78 – Churchill’s Wars And Financial Ties (May 18, 2023)
(About 2,900 words or 14 minutes of your company. Why not search the broad range of topics on Moneycircus Substack? — click top left on the MC logo, scroll down to the second magnifying glass.)



Salesman in chief

Tbilisi, May 5, 2023

There are two wars being fought: one online, one on the ground.
The very public use of drones lends itself to this phenomenon; camera footage is tailor-made for propaganda. Yet this also leads to a knee-jerk response, as we witness this week when two remote control devices detonated over the Kremlin.
Even mainstream commentators criticised the Institute for The Study of War for its opinion that Russia had staged the attack on its seat of government, just days before the annual Victory Day celebrations in Red Square, this year marking roughly eight decades since the Soviet Union defeated fascism. [1]
The institute is run by the neoconservative Kagan family, which includes Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who is married to Robert Kagan.
ASPI International Cyber Policy Centre’s Nathan Ruser commented on Twitter:
“OK, ISW is becoming a major problem in the media ecosystem. This assessment is just a hunch from their mapping team (one that I disagree with), and yet their role in providing maps will see this (bad) opinion laundered as fact by many journalists who print what they say verbatim.”
At least this time the Atlantic Council-funded “digital sleuths” Bellingcat(s), did not leap up from their basket to announce they’d identified the Kremlin!
Last month Bellingcat claimed to have pinpointed National Guardsman Jack Teixeira as the source of high-level documents leaked about the state of Ukraine’s readiness for its spring, now summer, offensive.
This obscured the fact that the content was not a surprise, rather it was a challenge to the narrative that Ukraine is winning. Such summaries are prepared for the rank of someone in the stratosphere of the Director of National Intelligence. The state corporate media used Bellingcat to suggest it was an insubordinate leak rather than infighting within the U.S. defence establishment over the wisdom of fighting a proxy war with Russia.
The deep state has doubled down. President Bill Clinton says he knew back in 2011 it was “just a matter of time” before president Vladimir Putin would attack Ukraine — this from the power couple who dismantled Yugoslavia and Libya.
The narratives are central to the mythos of NATO. Long before Russia was reinvented as the bogeyman, NATO needed an alternative to the spectre of the Soviet Union. This was provided in the form of R2P, or responsibility to protect – the idea that NATO was no longer the arm of an imperial hegemon but humanitarian. Bad guys must be identified and removed, in order to safeguard some minority of whose existence, until the day before yesterday, we knew nothing. The fact that these bad guys all seemed to sit atop oil wells was just a coincidence.
If these outrages are still too strong a cup — a vessel from which even some in the alt media decline to partake — then skip the next paragraph.
The evidence is incontrovertible. In both cases leaders were defamed and murdered, and their nations rent asunder: the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and its leader Slobodan Milošević, and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi. Even The Guardian was driven to admit, Milosevic: 'no link to genocide found', though to this day state-controlled Radio Free Europe still quibbles: Milosevic 'Exonerated'? War-Crime Deniers Feed Receptive Audience.
Like the conquest of those territories, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made clear the proxy nature of the present conflict, in a joint appearance with the former president: Ukraine must defeat Russia or retake lands in Crimea and Donbas. “They need leverage… I wouldn’t trust him [Putin] at a negotiating table under any circumstances, unless Ukrainians, backed by us, have enough leverage.”



Money for…

The U.S. has sent $100 billion to Ukraine, while the media stokes expectations of a Ukrainian counterstrike, with estimates of 48,000, perhaps 60,000, even as many as 200,000 fresh and rested troops. Of course, this feeds into the online narrative, providing cheer to those who have taken a side.
It does not accord with images of press gangs roaming Ukrainian towns. If Armed Forces of Ukraine had such troop numbers then snatch squads would not be seizing men in nightclubs, grandfathers from markets and boys off the street.



One face of the parallel reality online are the women soldiers. Remember how the press claimed that Gaddafi was protected by crack squad of Ukrainian female bodyguards? But that was ridicule: now images of Ukrainian Amazons are presented as the Marvel team against Russia.
Evgeniya Emerald is a sniper. We don’t see her in action, but even if she’s a model we wish her to stay safe and live long. As for the foreign volunteers, transgender American journalist Sarah Ashton-Cirillo has also signed up.
The reality of many Ukrainian women is different. They swarm the military recruiter press gangs, giving their menfolk time to escape. Mothers refuse to get out of their cars, lock doors, seeking to protect their teenage sons in the back seat.
What mother would want war? The press wants war and that’s a parallel with 100 years ago, when it was pushing for another war with Germany.





Shills of The Hill

There is legislation in Congress that would make Ukraine’s victory over Russia integral to U.S. military policy.
The Ukraine Victory Resolution should more accurately be named the bill to “Fight to the Last Ukrainian.”
It affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against Russia, holds that victory must be followed by integrating Ukraine into NATO, and declares that the United States must extract reparations, the cost of reconstruction, justice for Russian war crimes, and accountability for Russian leaders. [2]
Rep. Joe Wilson (South Carolina, R) and Rep. Steve Cohen (Tennessee, D) introduced the resolution (effectively the same as a bill). Sen Lindsay Graham is, not surprisingly, among its sponsors.
They argue that the United States can settle for nothing less than complete Ukrainian victory, plus the country’s integration into NATO — one of the issues that effectively provoked the war back in 2014 — as a message to “autocrats that borders cannot be changed by force alone.”
“Ukrainian victory is good for U.S. national security and economic stability, denies Putin any reward for its invasion, and deters China and Iran,” it states.
It would prosecute Russians for crimes against humanity and rebuild Ukraine at Russia’s expense. Does anyone hear the echo of the Treaty of Versailles, the crippling reparations it imposed on Germany, the press that would clamour for a second war, the bankers and weapons dealers who, having profited from the first, drooled for another?
More analytically, does anyone listen to the ample voices that caution against making the same mistake?


Provokatsiya

There can be no doubt that the war was provoked. Former German chancellor Angela Merkel admitted so in two interviews, with Der Spiegel and Die Zeit, in Dec 2022.
The Minsk protocol, brokered by Germany and France, supposedly aimed to reach peace between those who seized power in a coup in Kyiv in 2014, and those who rejected the outcome, primarily among the native Russian population of Donbas.
Merkel admitted that the timetable for negotiations, from the German, French and Ukrainian side was a sham, and that Minsk was just “an attempt to give Ukraine time… to become stronger” — in other words, not to reduce the bloodshed in the east of Ukraine but to increase it.
As Patrick Lawrence wrote for Consortium News, it’s hard not to agree that Germany did not become a new nation after World War II, facing both east and west, but a wholly-owned subsidiary of the U.S.:
“… its former chancellor told Germany’s leading news magazine and one of its leading dailies that the fruitful ambiguity of the nation’s past is gone now in favor of the manipulative, Russophobic dishonesty that lies at the heart of the proxy war the U.S. now wages against Russia in Ukraine.” [3]
This view is widely held: by the political strategist John Mearsheimer among others, who warned against “the false promise of liberal hegemony”; by the journalist and politician Patrick Buchanan; and by historians who rightly push for a revision of the comforting tales empires tell themselves about their own exceptional virtue.
Mearsheimer’s lecture of 2015 has gone viral — “The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.” Yet it was not exactly prophetic: Kyiv had been at war for a year already with its Russian-speaking citizens in the Donbas: 14,000 would die before Moscow intervened. [4]
His point was that nothing would be achieved by pushing Ukraine to join NATO except for more bloodshed. He called for building up Ukraine economically, as a neutral state.
Instead we see president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in talks with Halliburton, Chevron and Exxon to open up oil and gas fields to U.S. corporations [5].
Share
The biggest companies in agriculture, Monsanto, Cargill and Dupont are investing in corporations that lease farmland, expanding their presence in the local seed market, and introducing GMOs —despite the misdirection of fact checkers, these companies do not need to own Ukraine’s land in order to profit. [6]
President Zelenskiy also has agreed with Larry Fink, CEO of big-three asset manager BlackRock — the driving force behind corporate Wokism, net zero carbon, and ESGs — to coordinate investment in Ukraine.
They spoke of “the efforts of all potential investors and participants in the reconstruction of our country, channeling investment into the most relevant and impactful sectors of the Ukrainian economy.” [7]
Reading the names of the corporations just listed, does it sound like the aim is to help the people, or help themselves?


We are all at war

Are politicians like Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, the German Greens, the Poles or the ever-rotating premiership of the United Kingdom pushing for the material benefit of the Ukrainian people, let alone their right to enjoy liberty and the pursuit of happiness — when Russian-speaking Ukrainians have been shelled for nine years?
Or is the reality more prosaic, even banal. Ukraine has mineral resources and rich farmland… and we are in the midst of a land grab that’s worldwide. An entitled coterie of European monarchs and aristocrats, advised by globalist financiers, is demanding the complicity of other nations, including China, in acquiring farmland around the world — mostly buying it at inflated prices in devalued currency, but in the case of the Netherlands by expropriating farmers, in the American Midwest by inexplicable fires, train derailments and poisonings, and in Ukraine through the redistributive force of war.
Some choose to ignore this land grab, chalking it up to climate change, equity and an antagonistic attitude to business, innovation and energy — even while they clutch their new iPhones.
Others see where smart cities will lead — regardless of the claimed motive or end goal. German member of the European Parliament Christine Anderson explained the objective of 15-minute cities in the simplest terms possible.
How else to make sense of the kaleidoscope of events? We shan’t deign to explain: those who know, know.


First we take Manhattan…

Long before president Putin retook Crimea, Western corporations had expressed their desire to take Ukraine — but they needed a mechanism. The Swiss Army Knife was the intergovernmental institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as in so many cases.
In 2014, shortly before Ukraine’s then president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in a coup, he had declined an EU association agreement, the crucial element of which was a $17 billion loan from the IMF. [8]
It was not a matter of looking west or east, choosing Europe or Russia, but the straitjacket of the IMF loan that worried Yanukovych’s team. Regular readers will be familiar with professor Richard Werner’s book Princes Of The Yen (2003) in which he describes how the international financial institutions, the IMF and the World Bank, operate as Trojan horses for Western finance capital.
Their perennial demand is that governments follow a neoliberal agenda, removing restrictions that hinder the freedom of corporations and investors . The New York Times. admitted in May 2014, as the Maidan protests were being prepared, that:
“Western interests are pushing for change… Big multinationals have expressed tentative interest in Ukrainian agriculture, but they have largely remained on the sidelines, unwilling to invest in an industry hampered by structural deficiencies and, more recently, the uncertainty with its eastern neighbor.”
Those multinationals would not tolerate state regulations that specify crop rotation; they complained of land “not fully cultivated… The country’s yield per hectare of grain is about half that of the United States, according to the World Bank.” The sale of farmland being restricted, they complained that fields remained cut up “like chessboards.” [9]
You hardly need to read between the lines to see the call for more fertilizer, high yielding seeds, the consolidation of farms, and the replacement of the patchwork fields owned by Ukrainian families by corporations.
Dr. Natalia Mamonova, Research Fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs, wrote in 2019 that the collapse of the Soviet Union had left collective farms partly abandoned. Since the turn of this century, large agricultural corporations — Big Ag — succeeded in putting much land back into production, and reduced rural poverty in Ukraine from almost 75 per cent, to 20 per cent by 2010. However these corporations also have deleterious effects:
“Their activities do not directly lead to the dispossession of smallholders from their land, but imply gaining corporate control over the land and associated resources, state subsidies, and agricultural value chain. In such circumstances, rural households are unable to develop beyond the subsistence-oriented production and to become commercial family farmers.” [10]


Then we take Berlin

There is a greater historical resonance: Germany has been here before as Angela Merkel and current chancellor Olaf Scholz should know well.
There is a tendency, especially in the U.S. to give more importance to intentions rather than reality, says the historian Mark Weber. We judge people by their noble-sounding rhetoric rather than what they do. Secondly there is an assumption that there are good guys and bad guys, and if only if everybody was of goodwill there would be no conflict.
Countries should instead make policy based on a realistic assessment of the relationship of power in the world and not on an exaggerated view of their own righteousness. There are interests, and interests clash. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, as Mearsheimer entitled his 2001 book, is that nations cannot know how much power is enough to defend their interests.
This built-in tendency to over-react is more dangerous when powers misread the intentions of others — or rather, ascribe motives for which they have no evidence beyond projecting their own.
If a journalist and analyst should steer clear of imputing motive, how much more dangerous is that tendency in a politician or a military strategist?
Yet there are those who make wars happen — usually a minority of politicians, amplified by the press — and here is our parallel with a century ago.
Britain, for example, has a longstanding policy of maintaining the balance of power by opposing whoever aspired to be dominant, yet Buchanan argues that that policy was outmoded even by 1914.
Germany had consolidated in the 1800s, thanks in part to the efforts of Napoleon Bonaparte who, by picking off smaller German principalities, had unexpectedly driven the process of national consolidation. By 1870 the German state was a fact: by the turn of the century its population was approaching 60 million, compared to Britain’s 40 million. The speed of industrialisation was startling: in the decade spanning 1900, German machine building doubled. In 1870 Britain had produced twice as much steel as Germany. By 1914 the position was reversed. [11]
It is was no longer a question of stopping a rival. The consequences of any war with Germany would be ruinous to Britain, Buchanan argues, especially over a historic territorial dispute between Poland and Germany, in which Britain had nothing at stake, let alone any reason to offer perilous commitments.
So who were those making war happen regardless?
We watched as former British foreign secretary and prime minister Boris Johnson scuttled like an albino beetle between the Italian palazzo of the Russian emigre Lebedev family and a photo opportunity on the streets of Kyiv.
 
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SchlongConery

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Now don’t see any USA military analysis or Miltary Defense contractors who built the Patriot bragging about the system Patriot shooting down a hypersonic missile!

I pretty sure a spokesperson fromPentagon should & would had brag about shooting down a hypersonic missile!

Well for once you being "pretty sure" was right. (y) (Oh and did you notice that your "invincible" Russian hypersonic missiles were shot down the very first time the Ukrainians shot off the Patriot system? 🎯 😜)

Pentagon confirms Ukraine downed Russian missile with Patriot system


The Ukrainian military has downed a Russian missile using the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system, the Pentagon’s top spokesman confirmed Tuesday.

“I can confirm that they did down a Russian missile by employing the Patriot missile defense system,” press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “As you know, that system is part of a broader range of air defense capabilities that the United States and the international community have provided to Ukraine.”

The event is believed to be Ukraine’s first use of the U.S.-made defense system, pledged to Kyiv by Washington back in December and arriving in the country last month. "
 

Addict2sex

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Well for once you being "pretty sure" was right. (y) (Oh and did you notice that your "invincible" Russian hypersonic missiles were shot down the very first time the Ukrainians shot off the Patriot system? 🎯 😜)

Pentagon confirms Ukraine downed Russian missile with Patriot system


The Ukrainian military has downed a Russian missile using the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system, the Pentagon’s top spokesman confirmed Tuesday.

“I can confirm that they did down a Russian missile by employing the Patriot missile defense system,” press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “As you know, that system is part of a broader range of air defense capabilities that the United States and the international community have provided to Ukraine.”

The event is believed to be Ukraine’s first use of the U.S.-made defense system, pledged to Kyiv by Washington back in December and arriving in the country last month. "
Maybe a lucky shot ?? Defective missile? Hopefully it can shoot down the inferior China hypersonic missile !
Anyway they shot down a glided hypersonic missile known as air launch hypersonic missile! Not the other type of Hypersonic missile launched by ground! Those are the better one! They can holds nukes which make the ICBM obsolete! They are faster and can avoids antimissile and change their flight pathern. Which by the way America dont have any! They doing woke stuff instead of R & D and training young minds on STEM in universities!
 

SchlongConery

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Jan 28, 2013
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Maybe a lucky shot ?? Defective missile? Hopefully it can shoot down the inferior China hypersonic missile !
Anyway they shot down a glided hypersonic missile known as air launch hypersonic missile! Not the other type of Hypersonic missile launched by ground! Those are the better one! They can holds nukes which make the ICBM obsolete! They are faster and can avoids antimissile and change their flight pathern. Which by the way America dont have any!

You are fucking delusional.

 
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mandrill

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Preparing for Defeat
Clown World’s pet politicians and intellectuals are beginning to change the Narrative and prepare the public for its inevitable defeat in Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not end in victory for Kiev, and its Western backers should prepare for such an outcome, Czech President Petr Pavel has told The Guardian newspaper.
“I think we should do anything… at our disposal to encourage Ukrainians and to support them to be successful. But internally, we should also be ready for other contingencies,” said Pavel, who was in London for the coronation of King Charles III.
A lot will depend on the outcome of Ukraine’s planned spring counteroffensive, explained the Czech leader, who has a background in intelligence and served as chairman of the NATO Military Committee between 2015 and 2018.
The outcome is not in doubt. While the game still needs to be played out, the Russians are as confident of victory now as they were in 1943, when Stalin, post-Tehran, commented: “Roosevelt has given me his firm word to open extensive actions in France in 1944. I think he will keep his word. And if he doesn’t keep his word, we are strong enough to crush Hitler and Germany on our own.”
Notice that Clown World strategist emeritus, who was among the first clowns to recognize that the neoliberal world order was in decline back in 2014, is now openly predicting a negotiated settlement brokered by the Chinese…
I hate to tell you, but Russia would have ended up with a stalemate in and after 1943 had the West not helped it.

The Germans had probably blown their ability to move forward into Russia after Kursk, but the Russians would probably have bogged down in Ukraine had the Germans not moved 1/2 their forces to Italy and France.
 

Addict2sex

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American news outlet 19FortyFive: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way

▪ Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.
▪ Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.
“I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.”
- Link to archived article
 

bver_hunter

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Make Russia Pay
The West has already frozen some $300 billion in Russian assets. Here’s the case for seizing them.

 

Addict2sex

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After Bakhmut
Russia turned Bakhmut into the graveyard of Ukrainian military power. What comes next?


Douglas Macgregor
May 23, 202312:03 AM



Until the fighting begins, national military strategy developed in peacetime shapes thinking about warfare and its objectives. Then the fighting creates a new logic of its own. Strategy is adjusted. Objectives change. The battle for Bakhmut illustrates this point very well.
When General Sergey Vladimirovich Surovikin, commander of Russian aerospace forces, assumed command of the Russian military in the Ukrainian theater last year, President Vladimir Putin and his senior military advisors concluded that their original assumptions about the war were wrong. Washington had proved incurably hostile to Moscow’s offers to negotiate, and the ground force Moscow had committed to compel Kiev to negotiate had proved too small.

Surovikin was given wide latitude to streamline command relationships and reorganize the theater. Most importantly, Surovikin was also given the freedom of action to implement a defensive strategy that maximized the use of stand-off attack or strike systems while Russian ground forces expanded in size and striking power. The Bakhmut “Meatgrinder”was the result.

When it became clear that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government regarded Bakhmut as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to Russian military power, Surovikin turned Bakhmut into the graveyard of Ukrainian military power. From the fall of 2022 onward, Surovikin exploited Zalenskiy’s obsession with Bakhmut to engage in a bloody tug-of-war for control of the city. As a result, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died in Bakhmut and many more were wounded.

Surovkin’s performance is reminiscent of another Russian military officer: General Aleksei Antonov. As the first deputy chief of the Soviet general staff, Surovikin was, in Western parlance, the director of strategic planning. When Stalin demanded a new summer offensive in a May 1943 meeting, Antonov, the son and grandson of imperial Russian army officers, argued for a defensive strategy. Antonov insisted that Hitler, if allowed, would inevitably attack the Soviet defenses in the Kursk salient and waste German resources doing so.
Stalin, like Hitler, believed that wars were won with offensive action, not defensive operations.

Stalin was unmoved by Soviet losses. Antonov presented his arguments for the defensive strategy in a climate of fear, knowing that contradicting Stalin could cost him his life. To the surprise of Marshals Aleksandr Vasilevsky and Georgy Zhukov, who were present at the meeting, Stalin relented and approved Antonov’s operational concept. The rest, as historians say, is history.

If President Putin and his senior military leaders wanted outside evidence for Surovikin’s strategic success in Bakhmut, a Western admission appears to provide it: Washington and her European allies seem to think that a frozen conflict—in which fighting pauses but neither side is victorious, nor does either side agree that the war is officially over—could be the most politically palatable long-term outcome for NATO. In other words, Zelensky’s supporters no longer believe in the myth of Ukrainian victory.

The question on everyone’s mind is, what’s next?
In Washington, conventional wisdom dictates that Ukrainian forces launch a counteroffensive to retake Southern Ukraine. Of course, conventional wisdom is frequently high on convention and low on wisdom. On the assumption that Ukraine’s black earth will dry sufficiently to support ground maneuver forces before mid-June, Ukrainian forces will strike Russian defenses on multiple axes and win back control of Southern Ukraine in late May or June. Roughly 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers training in Great Britain, Germany, and other NATO member states are expected to return to Ukraine and provide the foundation for the Ukrainian counterattack force.
General Valery Gerasimov, who now commands the Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater, knows what to expect, and he is undoubtedly preparing for the Ukrainian offensive. The partial mobilization of Russian forces means that Russian ground forces are now much larger than they have been since the mid-1980s.



Given the paucity of ammunition available to adequately supply one operational axis, it seems unlikely that a Ukrainian offensive involving two or more axes could succeed in penetrating Russian defenses. Persistent overhead surveillance makes it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to move through the twenty- to twenty-five-kilometer security zone and close with Russian forces before Ukrainian formations take significant losses.
Once Ukraine’s offensive resources are exhausted Russia will likely take the offense. There is no incentive to delay Russian offensive operations. As Ukrainian forces repeatedly demonstrate, paralysis is always temporary. Infrastructure and equipment are repaired. Manpower is conscripted to rebuild destroyed formations. If Russia is to achieve its aim of demilitarizing Ukraine, Gerasimov surely knows he must still close with and complete the destruction of the Ukrainian ground forces that remain.
Why not spare the people of Ukraine further bloodletting and negotiate with Moscow for peace while Ukraine still possesses an army? Unfortunately, to be effective, diplomacy requires mutual respect, and Washington’s effusive hatred for Russia makes diplomacy impossible. That hatred is rivaled only by the arrogance of much of the ruling class, who denigrate Russian military power largely because U.S. forces have been lucky enough to avoid conflict with a major power since the Korean War. More sober-minded leaders in Washington, Paris, Berlin, and other NATO capitols should urge a different course of action.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Douglas Macgregor
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
Articles by Douglas trending_flat
 
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Addict2sex

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Addict2sex

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POLITICS
Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way
Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.

By
Daniel Davis
Published
21 hours ago

Ukraine Russia

Russian military 305th Artillery Brigade's exercise. 2S5 self-propelled cannon.

From almost the opening days of the Russia-Ukraine War, a running theme among Western analysts has been that the Russian military has badly underperformed and the Ukrainian Armed Forces constantly exceeded expectations.
Few seem to have noticed, however, that the pendulum on the battlefield has shifted.
Shift for Russia in Ukraine
Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.
Washington policymakers need to update their understanding of the current trajectory of the war to ensure the U.S. is not caught off guard by battlefield events – and that our interests don’t suffer as a result.
There has been no shortage of legitimate evidence to support the contention that throughout 2022 the Russian side performed much worse than most expected and that Ukraine performed better than anticipated. Russia’s initial battle plan was flawed at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
Moscow allocated an invasion force that was too small for the task, dispersed across four axes of advance (ensuring that none would be strong enough to succeed on its own), and was not equipped with supplies to sustain a long war.

Ukraine was more prepared for an invasion than many originally believed and took impressive action quickly to stem the Russian advance, blunting each axis, and imposing serious casualties on the invaders.
In contrast to Russian blunders, Zelensky’s troops initially performed well at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels such that Russia was forced into a major withdrawal of the bulk of its armored forces from Kyiv and Kharkiv barely a month into the war.

Russian Deployments
It was a logical and rational strategic decision for Russia to redeploy its forces to strengthen the Donbas front in April 2022. But even then, ample evidence began to pile up that tactically, there were still grave weaknesses in the Russian forces, such as the infamous May 2022 crossing of the Seversky-Donetsk river, which saw an entire battalion wiped out. All the news wasn’t bad for Russia, however, as through the month of July Putin’s forces captured a number of key cities.
After repositioning its forces, Russia Captured Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. But exposing Russia’s ongoing operational weaknesses, Ukrainian forces launched two offensives, one of which caught Russia completely by surprise, resulting in the recapture of Lyman. The first was in the Kherson province, which started off badly for Ukraine. But while all Moscow’s attention was on Kherson, Ukraine unleashed a major drive north near Kharkiv.
Back and Forth Continues
Russian leaders had been asleep at the wheel, focusing all of their attention on Kherson and literally ignoring Kharkiv, trying to secure their northern flank with a paltry number of minimally trained national guardsmen. Ukraine exploited this mistake and drove Russian troops back over 100km to the Svatavo-Kremenna line. While still reeling from this blow, Russia faced a dilemma in Kherson city: fight a bloody defensive battle in the city or surrender it without a fight.

Russia chose the latter. By October, Russian leaders were being ridiculed in the West as having been seriously wounded by Ukraine’s twin offensives, and talk of a Ukrainian victory picked up steam, with former U.S. Army general Ben Hodges claiming Ukraine could win the war “by the end of the year” 2022.
As of November 2022, it was fair to say the Russian general staff had been outperformed by the Ukrainian general staff. Many pundits in the West concluded that Russian troops and leaders were deeply flawed and incapable of improving, believing that Russia would remain incapable tactically for the duration of the war.
What many of these analysts failed to recognize, however, is that Russia has vastly more capacity to make war, both in terms of material and personnel, and therefore has the capacity to absorb enormous losses and still remain viable. Further, Russian history is replete with examples of starting out poorly in wars, suffering large casualties, and then recovering to turn the tide. Ukraine, on the other hand, has significantly fewer resources or troops and therefore has less room for error.
Timeframe
Over the now 15 months of war, Ukraine has fought and lost four major urban battles against Russia, suffering progressively worse levels of casualties in each: Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and most recently Bakhmut.
When Russia was faced with city battles – Kyiv, Kharkiv City, and Kherson City – they chose to abandon each while establishing more defensible defensive positions elsewhere. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to fight for their major cities. The results are telling.
By withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first month of war and from Kherson City last fall, Russia was able to relocate its force into more defensible positions, preserving its personnel from the crucible of a grueling defensive fight in urban terrain. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to contest major cities and has now lost staggering numbers of troops – but they also lost the city itself in the end. The decision of the Ukrainian general staff to defend Bakhmut until the end may have grave implications for the rest of the war.

As far back as December, it was clear that Ukraine would not be able to keep Bakhmut. Once Russian troops advanced around the flanks of the city and took all the roads supporting the garrison under fire control, the chances of holding the city fell to almost zero. What Ukraine could and should have done is follow the Russian example at Kherson and withdraw to the next prepared defensive position in the vicinity of Kramatorsk or Slavyansk.
From those locations, the Ukrainians would again have had all the advantages: they would have had elaborately dug fighting positions, unrestricted fields of fire to attack oncoming Russian troops, and unhindered resupply routes to the rear. It would have been far more expensive for Russia to try and take those positions than it was to fight from point-blank range against the Ukrainians in Bakhmut, especially when the Russians could and did inflict severe blows on a daily basis to resupply the defenders.
As a result, Ukraine has lost literally tens of thousands of killed and wounded, along with enormous quantities of equipment and ammunition, in those four city fights. Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.
Put simply, Ukraine doesn’t have the personnel or industrial capacity to replace their lost men and equipment in comparison to the Russians. Moreover, Russia has been learning from its many tactical mistakes and evidence suggests they are improving tactically while simultaneously expanding their industrial capacity. Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.
Ukraine is now faced with a world-class dilemma: should they use their last offensive capacity in a last gasp of hoping they inflict a grave wound on the Russians defending in the occupied territories or preserve them in case Russia launches a summer offensive of their own? There are serious risks with either course of action. I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.
Supporting Ukraine
The United States must take these realities into consideration in the coming weeks and months. Washington has already provided Ukraine the lion’s share of all military and financial aide including many of our most sophisticated armor, artillery, rockets, and missiles. Biden has even authorized the release of F-16 jets. The United States cannot – nor should it – commit to sending an equal amount of support for the next year of war, should it continue that long. Europe must be willing to make greater contributions to any future deliveries to Ukraine.
Only Kyiv can decide whether to keep fighting or seek the best-negotiated deal it can get. But the United States is obligated to ensure the security of our country and people above the desires of Kyiv.
In addition to burden-shifting physical support primarily to European states, means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts. America must not put its own future safety at risk by agreeing to any form of security guarantee.
The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West. It is the observable reality. What Washington must do is avoid the temptation to “double-down” on supporting a losing proposition and do whatever we need to bring this conflict to a rapid conclusion, preserving our future security to the maximum extent. Ignoring these realities could set up Ukraine for even greater losses – and could put our own security at unacceptable future risk.
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.

In this article:featured, Putin, Russia, Russian Military, Ukraine, War in Ukraine

WRITTEN BYDaniel Davis
Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
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NotADcotor

His most imperial galactic atheistic majesty.
Mar 8, 2017
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Maybe a lucky shot ?? Defective missile? Hopefully it can shoot down the inferior China hypersonic missile !
Anyway they shot down a glided hypersonic missile known as air launch hypersonic missile! Not the other type of Hypersonic missile launched by ground! Those are the better one! They can holds nukes which make the ICBM obsolete! They are faster and can avoids antimissile and change their flight pathern. Which by the way America dont have any! They doing woke stuff instead of R & D and training young minds on STEM in universities!
ICBMs are even faster. FFS. The Kinzhal can go Mach 10, the LGM-30 Minuteman can go Mach 23.
This has been pointed out to you how many times?

ALso lucky, defective... or maybe, just maybe within the known ability of the Patriot system.

Also what about the other 6 shot down on May 16th. Maybe you are right and the Kinzhal is a defective missile. Seems your claim about being able to avoid anti missile is like most Russian gear Reebs also nonsense. The sort he heard about everything Russian for ages before the current war took off.

Reminds me of when Russia was losing general after general. To lose one is a misfortune, to lose many is carelessness. [To paraphrase]
 
Last edited:

NotADcotor

His most imperial galactic atheistic majesty.
Mar 8, 2017
7,260
4,898
113
The Germans had probably blown their ability to move forward into Russia after Kursk, but the Russians would probably have bogged down in Ukraine had the Germans not moved 1/2 their forces to Italy and France.
And lend lease with all those tasty trucks and other nice shit, and the Russian ability to get more manpower from recently retaken areas plus all those assets facing Bomber Command and the IIRC 8th AF and blocking Germany off from the world oil market plus...
 
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Frankfooter

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POLITICS
Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way
Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.

By
Daniel Davis
Published
21 hours ago

Ukraine Russia

Russian military 305th Artillery Brigade's exercise. 2S5 self-propelled cannon.

From almost the opening days of the Russia-Ukraine War, a running theme among Western analysts has been that the Russian military has badly underperformed and the Ukrainian Armed Forces constantly exceeded expectations.
Few seem to have noticed, however, that the pendulum on the battlefield has shifted.
Shift for Russia in Ukraine
Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.
Washington policymakers need to update their understanding of the current trajectory of the war to ensure the U.S. is not caught off guard by battlefield events – and that our interests don’t suffer as a result.
There has been no shortage of legitimate evidence to support the contention that throughout 2022 the Russian side performed much worse than most expected and that Ukraine performed better than anticipated. Russia’s initial battle plan was flawed at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
Moscow allocated an invasion force that was too small for the task, dispersed across four axes of advance (ensuring that none would be strong enough to succeed on its own), and was not equipped with supplies to sustain a long war.

Ukraine was more prepared for an invasion than many originally believed and took impressive action quickly to stem the Russian advance, blunting each axis, and imposing serious casualties on the invaders.
In contrast to Russian blunders, Zelensky’s troops initially performed well at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels such that Russia was forced into a major withdrawal of the bulk of its armored forces from Kyiv and Kharkiv barely a month into the war.

Russian Deployments
It was a logical and rational strategic decision for Russia to redeploy its forces to strengthen the Donbas front in April 2022. But even then, ample evidence began to pile up that tactically, there were still grave weaknesses in the Russian forces, such as the infamous May 2022 crossing of the Seversky-Donetsk river, which saw an entire battalion wiped out. All the news wasn’t bad for Russia, however, as through the month of July Putin’s forces captured a number of key cities.
After repositioning its forces, Russia Captured Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. But exposing Russia’s ongoing operational weaknesses, Ukrainian forces launched two offensives, one of which caught Russia completely by surprise, resulting in the recapture of Lyman. The first was in the Kherson province, which started off badly for Ukraine. But while all Moscow’s attention was on Kherson, Ukraine unleashed a major drive north near Kharkiv.
Back and Forth Continues
Russian leaders had been asleep at the wheel, focusing all of their attention on Kherson and literally ignoring Kharkiv, trying to secure their northern flank with a paltry number of minimally trained national guardsmen. Ukraine exploited this mistake and drove Russian troops back over 100km to the Svatavo-Kremenna line. While still reeling from this blow, Russia faced a dilemma in Kherson city: fight a bloody defensive battle in the city or surrender it without a fight.

Russia chose the latter. By October, Russian leaders were being ridiculed in the West as having been seriously wounded by Ukraine’s twin offensives, and talk of a Ukrainian victory picked up steam, with former U.S. Army general Ben Hodges claiming Ukraine could win the war “by the end of the year” 2022.
As of November 2022, it was fair to say the Russian general staff had been outperformed by the Ukrainian general staff. Many pundits in the West concluded that Russian troops and leaders were deeply flawed and incapable of improving, believing that Russia would remain incapable tactically for the duration of the war.
What many of these analysts failed to recognize, however, is that Russia has vastly more capacity to make war, both in terms of material and personnel, and therefore has the capacity to absorb enormous losses and still remain viable. Further, Russian history is replete with examples of starting out poorly in wars, suffering large casualties, and then recovering to turn the tide. Ukraine, on the other hand, has significantly fewer resources or troops and therefore has less room for error.
Timeframe
Over the now 15 months of war, Ukraine has fought and lost four major urban battles against Russia, suffering progressively worse levels of casualties in each: Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and most recently Bakhmut.
When Russia was faced with city battles – Kyiv, Kharkiv City, and Kherson City – they chose to abandon each while establishing more defensible defensive positions elsewhere. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to fight for their major cities. The results are telling.
By withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first month of war and from Kherson City last fall, Russia was able to relocate its force into more defensible positions, preserving its personnel from the crucible of a grueling defensive fight in urban terrain. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to contest major cities and has now lost staggering numbers of troops – but they also lost the city itself in the end. The decision of the Ukrainian general staff to defend Bakhmut until the end may have grave implications for the rest of the war.

As far back as December, it was clear that Ukraine would not be able to keep Bakhmut. Once Russian troops advanced around the flanks of the city and took all the roads supporting the garrison under fire control, the chances of holding the city fell to almost zero. What Ukraine could and should have done is follow the Russian example at Kherson and withdraw to the next prepared defensive position in the vicinity of Kramatorsk or Slavyansk.
From those locations, the Ukrainians would again have had all the advantages: they would have had elaborately dug fighting positions, unrestricted fields of fire to attack oncoming Russian troops, and unhindered resupply routes to the rear. It would have been far more expensive for Russia to try and take those positions than it was to fight from point-blank range against the Ukrainians in Bakhmut, especially when the Russians could and did inflict severe blows on a daily basis to resupply the defenders.
As a result, Ukraine has lost literally tens of thousands of killed and wounded, along with enormous quantities of equipment and ammunition, in those four city fights. Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.
Put simply, Ukraine doesn’t have the personnel or industrial capacity to replace their lost men and equipment in comparison to the Russians. Moreover, Russia has been learning from its many tactical mistakes and evidence suggests they are improving tactically while simultaneously expanding their industrial capacity. Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.
Ukraine is now faced with a world-class dilemma: should they use their last offensive capacity in a last gasp of hoping they inflict a grave wound on the Russians defending in the occupied territories or preserve them in case Russia launches a summer offensive of their own? There are serious risks with either course of action. I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.
Supporting Ukraine
The United States must take these realities into consideration in the coming weeks and months. Washington has already provided Ukraine the lion’s share of all military and financial aide including many of our most sophisticated armor, artillery, rockets, and missiles. Biden has even authorized the release of F-16 jets. The United States cannot – nor should it – commit to sending an equal amount of support for the next year of war, should it continue that long. Europe must be willing to make greater contributions to any future deliveries to Ukraine.
Only Kyiv can decide whether to keep fighting or seek the best-negotiated deal it can get. But the United States is obligated to ensure the security of our country and people above the desires of Kyiv.
In addition to burden-shifting physical support primarily to European states, means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts. America must not put its own future safety at risk by agreeing to any form of security guarantee.
The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West. It is the observable reality. What Washington must do is avoid the temptation to “double-down” on supporting a losing proposition and do whatever we need to bring this conflict to a rapid conclusion, preserving our future security to the maximum extent. Ignoring these realities could set up Ukraine for even greater losses – and could put our own security at unacceptable future risk.
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.

In this article:featured, Putin, Russia, Russian Military, Ukraine, War in Ukraine

WRITTEN BYDaniel Davis
Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
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Putin has lost the country.
 

Leimonis

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