U.S. Mid-terms

[Valcazar]

So I heard Bobeart is out? What a relief! How did Barjorie did? And the pedo from florida?

I don't think Boebert is out officially yet.
Marjorie won easily.
So did Gaetz.

 

[mandrill]

It doesn't appear Walker was getting help from suburban women. I'm curious if he was able to peel off any of the African-American vote.

Kemp like DeSantis is viewed as a very competent Governor within his state. He might not be the NY Times, CNN and MSNBC's cup of tea, but I think he represents his electorate's world view not a Northeastern state. It's also why the liberal media can't understand why Beto O'Rourke isn't more popular in Texas.

Beto is not that well qualified and I am puzzled why the Dems keep running him. Abbott appears more vulnerable than De Santis. When I last checked, Beto was within 4 % points. I am guessing that reflects the "purpling" of TX. At some point, TX - like CA - will become a "northeastern state" politically. It's urban and increasingly well educated, which is what you likely mean by "northeastern".

Not sure what the demographic mix of FL is. De S probably profits from the older demographic of FL being the "retirement state".

 

[Valcazar]

I'm guessing that they tried to do was replicate the British framework and substitute elected officials for hereditary title-holders. The Senate = the House of Lords. The president = the king. And the House = the House of Commons. But Britain was a small, non-regionalized country where the elites were close and very clique-y. And because the British constitution is unwritten and can be "evolved" to whatever people want it to be, the House of Lords / Senate and the Monarchy were disempowered by around 1900 and it became a single chamber electoral democracy.

Yes.
They drew very heavily from what they knew.
Remember that the idea of a prime minister having executive power doesn't really come in until Mad King George 20 years later or so. If that had happened earlier, they might not have bothered with a President at all.
It isn't an exact copy of the UK system because they were also trying to solve for other problems.

About the only thing you can say about it is that from all their internal writings about it they would find the fact it gets held up as a fetish document like it solved democracy and they were untouchable completely ridiculous.

 

[Valcazar]

Very important point about the map. The map was so-so for Republicans this year. They were defending 21 seats of 35 in play last night.

And that's flipped next time.

 

[mandrill]

I wonder if she will find a career path similar to Sarah Palin's.

There is always a job waiting for her in the voter suppression industry. Right, Jali?

I'm more concerned about her husband - aka The Bowling Alley Dick Flasher - being kicked off his job on the board of directors of an oil company.

I suspect that the BADF didn't entirely get that position on his own intellectual merits.

 

[WyattEarp]

The 800 pound gorilla room is many of the States do a very poor job of tabulating votes. It's not inspiring. If the margins in Pennsylvania were closer, that also would have been a shit show.

We should be able to agree on this, but I'm sure this post will "trigger" the anti-Trump reflex from some. This is a fair observation. It's not 2020 election denial.

 

[WyattEarp]

And that's flipped next time.

I'm feeling this might be the cycle where Manchin switches party. I don't think he is happy with Biden and the Senate Democratic leadership.

If he runs as a Republican, he walks into another term. Of course, he seems to be able to be a popular Moderate Democrat in a Red state. He still might walk into another term.

I wonder if he senses a Republican Senate majority if that will also be a factor. He will be 77 in 2024 and it's no fun being in the minority.

 

[Valcazar]

The 800 pound gorilla room is many of the States do a very poor job of tabulating votes. It's not inspiring. If the margins in Pennsylvania were closer, that also would have been a shit show.

We should be able to agree on this, but I'm sure this post will "trigger" the anti-Trump reflex from some. This is a fair observation. It's not 2020 election denial.

They don't do that bad a job, but it could absolutely be better and it could absolutely have a national standard.
Pennsylvania is a perfect example - they really did try to make it as difficult and slow to count as possible, to milk the "something suspicious is happening" narrative. It's just that Oz lost so badly, it didn't come into play.

 

[Valcazar]

I'm feeling this might be the cycle where Manchin switches party. I don't think he is happy with Biden and the Senate Democratic leadership.

If he runs as a Republican, he walks into another term. Of course, he seems to be able to be a popular Moderate Democrat in a Red state. He still might walk into another term.

If he runs as a Republican, he doesn't survive the primary.
Maybe if the deal he cuts to change sides is to have protection from being primaried at all.

But he's also 75. He might just decide he doesn't need to run again and switch parties for a last two years.

The thing is, he is way too left wing to be a Republican these days. Switching just to piss off Biden doesn't seem like it get him anything. I guess if he can hand majority to McConnel and McConnel has a bill ready to go that gives Manchin shit he wants. I just don't particularly see it unless he can get something juicy for it.

 

[WyattEarp]

They don't do that bad a job, but it could absolutely be better and it could absolutely have a national standard.
Pennsylvania is a perfect example - they really did try to make it as difficult and slow to count as possible, to milk the "something suspicious is happening" narrative. It's just that Oz lost so badly, it didn't come into play.

I was thinking about the recent court fights over requiring dating for mail-in ballots. The Dems were ready to immediately challenge the requirement again in court if they lost the election.

I learned last night that Pennsylvania has fifty days of early voting. That just seems odd, but not necessarily a problem. I just think the election system and voters in a Democracy should allow the candidates time to make their case.

 

[Valcazar]

I was thinking about the recent court fights over requiring dating for mail-in ballots. The Dems were ready to immediately challenge the requirement again in court if they lost the election.

I learned last night that Pennsylvania has fifty days of early voting. That just seems odd, but not necessarily a problem. I just think the election system and voters in a Democracy should allow the candidates time to make their case.

The reason there is so much early voting in the US is that the campaigns are in reality almost a year long even if "officially" they are less. (Although 50 days seems a bit ridiculous. I'm not sure that other states don't allow it to be that early as well thought - once you receive an official ballot for mailing in, I think you can send it right away.)

The biggest problem is the complete lack of consistency in the rules and the fact they get fucked with all the time.
50 sets of rules for voting makes for a fair amount of chaos.

 

[Butler1000]

Here.



KD made the 245-190 / 53-47 for GOP
I had it at 227-208 / 51-49
You said +30 / +3 but I can't tell if you mean gains or final margin. So that either meant
R 243, D 192 (a +30 gain in seats) or R=232 D=203 (+29 margin - you can't have a +30 one.) and R=53/D=47 in the Senate.


As of 12:25 here the rough consensus in terms of called races is as follows:

SENATE:
Democrats
48
Republicans
48

4 races outstanding. So I still have a shot of being right here, but you and Knuckle overshot.

HOUSE RESULTS:
Democrats
194
Republicans
210

So if Republicans win all the remaining ones, it would be 241-194 which is very close to what you and KDouglas were predicting.

I meant Add 30 and 3 seats on to what they had.

While I'm very Glad Fetterman made it I thought OZ would squeak through. And a few other toss up races no one could call would come in.

 

[WyattEarp]

The reason there is so much early voting in the US is that the campaigns are in reality almost a year long even if "officially" they are less. (Although 50 days seems a bit ridiculous. I'm not sure that other states don't allow it to be that early as well thought - once you receive an official ballot for mailing in, I think you can send it right away.)

The biggest problem is the complete lack of consistency in the rules and the fact they get fucked with all the time.
50 sets of rules for voting makes for a fair amount of chaos.

I certainly don't know all the rules for Pennsylvania. The way I understand "early voting" in many states is that they set-up several locations with ballots for several districts where you can drop in to vote over an extended period before election day. Obviously, it makes it very convenient for many. Mail-in voting is another category.

Practically speaking, it seems early voting and mail-in voting get lumped together in media reporting.

Yes, fifty sets of rules is stupid. I don't know if 100% state control is explicitly established in the Constitution or it's just the precedence. I think commentators were even saying in some states the counties manage the counting process differently.

 

[WyattEarp]

I meant Add 30 and 3 seats on to what they had.

While I'm very Glad Fetterman made it I thought OZ would squeak through. And a few other toss up races no one could call would come in.

I don't know why Oz engenders so much hatred from some here. I myself am old school and I don't dig Fetterman's casual approach to menswear. I guess he's a man of the people.

 

[WyattEarp]

In regards to the likely Georgia run-off, what do the Libertarian voters do? Can they possibly vote for Warnock now? Or do they just stay home?

I don't really know. My opinion is they're kind of odd voters anyway.

 

[jalimon]

Fox explaining how elections works

TikTok - Make Your Day

 

[Valcazar]

I meant Add 30 and 3 seats on to what they had.

While I'm very Glad Fetterman made it I thought OZ would squeak through. And a few other toss up races no one could call would come in.

Thanks for clarifying.

So
KDouglas R 245/D190 // R 53/D47
Butler R 243/D192 // R 53/D47
Valcazar R 227/D208 // R 51/D49

Right now: R 211/D194 // R 48/D 48 (with Alaska almost 100% R and Georgia going to a run off)

 

[mandrill]

I'm feeling this might be the cycle where Manchin switches party. I don't think he is happy with Biden and the Senate Democratic leadership.

If he runs as a Republican, he walks into another term. Of course, he seems to be able to be a popular Moderate Democrat in a Red state. He still might walk into another term.

I wonder if he senses a Republican Senate majority if that will also be a factor. He will be 77 in 2024 and it's no fun being in the minority.

I think Manchin most of all likes sailing up and down the Potomac in his huge yacht. I doubt he gives a fuck what party he gets elected as, in a state that he pretty much seems to own.

 

[mandrill]

In regards to the likely Georgia run-off, what do the Libertarian voters do? Can they possibly vote for Warnock now? Or do they just stay home?
I don't really know. My opinion is they're kind of odd voters anyway.

You might get a significantly different dynamic. Urban voters who assumed the Hersh was toast from the get-go might now hustle out and vote for the Rev. There'll be even more publicity and perhaps some shaming of those who stayed home yesterday.

In the best of all possible worlds, those who voted for a near moron level intellect, compulsive liar with multiple psychotic conditions who physically beat his wife might be visited with remorse and vow to undo the terrible error that they almost made.

 

[Valcazar]

I certainly don't know all the rules for Pennsylvania. The way I understand "early voting" in many states is that they set-up several locations with ballots for several districts where you can drop in to vote over an extended period before election day. Obviously, it makes it very convenient for many. Mail-in voting is another category.

Practically speaking, it seems early voting and mail-in voting get lumped together in media reporting.

From what I understand, early voting in Pennsylvania is mail in voting, buy you drop off your mail-in ballot yourself.
So I'm not surprised it all gets mixed together, the whole thing is a bit of a mess.

Yes, fifty sets of rules is stupid. I don't know if 100% state control is explicitly established in the Constitution or it's just the precedence. I think commentators were even saying in some states the counties manage the counting process differently.

State control is in the constitution, but congress can set standards for federal elections. It's all a bit muddled.