U.S. Mid-terms
- Thread starter Darts
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Kemp's results seem about 5% higher than Walker's.
That does make it seem like Kemp may have pulled him some since people tend not to ticket split as much as they used to from what I understand.
Kemp resonates more with more sophisticated Republicans and this could be an example of voters splitting the ticket. As I am guess-terstanding it, HW still got a large turnout with die-hard, high school educated evangelicals - which is a large constituency in the South. But I suspect he lost the middle class GOP vote.
Looks like the Democrats will do better than expected. In all
likelihood the Republicans will score a minor win in the House
but no better. Good thing the Democrats cannot blame escalating
inflation on their opponents before the 2024 election.
likelihood the Republicans will score a minor win in the House
but no better. Good thing the Democrats cannot blame escalating
inflation on their opponents before the 2024 election.
1) This is something people tend not to understand. Yes, the GOP underperformed (or the Dems overperformed, however you want to phrase it), but if they only need control by the thinnest of margin to wield a LOT of power. A thin margin does mess with them somewhat, because there are some unruly factions of that caucus and I doubt McCarthy has the ability to keep them in line - but since the main thing they have to do is just block things and cause havoc, that won't matter too much.
2) That's the big question. Does DeSantis look at last night with his strong win and Trump's candidates failing and decide to go after the brass ring? I still say no - there's been little evidence of coordination to stop Trump and DeSantis doesn't strike me as brave enough or stupid enough to do it on his own (that might take Trump out but would almost certainly take him out as well). I still say DeSantis waits it out hoping Trump flames himself out so DeSantis can step in without confronting Donny. But there have to be people thinking that it is the time to strike if they can just get other people on board so maybe they will go for it.
3) I don't see negative partisanship as the main driver going away anytime soon.
4) They should, and that plays into 2. But that said, if they have the house and can paralyze everything, they are almost guaranteed to take the Senate in 2024 given the map that year so they may just decide it doesn't matter.
They got a cheerleader. MTG was returned decisively. Proves NW Georgia has more assholes than a sausage factory...
But winning 100% of close races - especially as mail-ins tend to be Dem voters - is unrealistic. Maybe guess it as a 50:50 split and that still gives GOP control of the House 230-210.
This is the endemic and perennial problem of US politics. If any party controls the WH, Senate and Congress, they get fucked by the Senate filibuster. And then the mid terms hand one or both of the branches of Congress to the opposing party and that grinds things to a halt for another couple of years. And then the process repeats.
It's a recipe for inertia. And inertia feeds regionalism and polarisation because nothing ever gets accomplished and the country never "moves on" and never has a chance to reunite. The same bullshit issues remain in play decade after decade. And everyone gets more and more frustrated.
MTG has one of the safest GOP seats in the country and will be re elected for the next 100 years.
I don't think it's Trump. Trump is just part of the clown show, which includes the mini Maga mafia and its unseemly antics - Lake, Boebert, the Stop the Stealers, etc. It's the choice of corrupt, unqualified candidates like OZ and Hershel who are easy to lampoon and target. It's Dodds and the perception that the GOP is in a different universe than modern, educated, urban Americans. And a whole bunch of other stuff.
I agree it is unrealistic, but just wanted to see if any predictions were ruled out yet. I don't know what a realistic split looks like right now and don't feel like reading multiple sites to find a credible number.
That's because the countermajoritarian design of the US Constitution is terrible.
They made a really good try at inventing something new over 200 years ago, but it has been shown to be fucked in all kinds of ways. It is very difficult to fix, though.
Just removing the filibuster would help, but there are a LOT of fixes that need to be done and are only likely to be done slowly and haphazardly.
Not irreparable at all. The house majority is already really fractured. Measures such as MTG's investigation into companies that pulled Repug campaign funding and the campaign promise to pull the plug on Ukraine are unlikely to go anywhere. I can't wait for the Donald's big announcement now, election deniers didn't do as well as he wanted. If he announces a run for POTUS in 2024 he will have to officially admit he LOST 2020. That's why I can't wait...
It doesn't appear Walker was getting help from suburban women. I'm curious if he was able to peel off any of the African-American vote.
Kemp like DeSantis is viewed as a very competent Governor within his state. He might not be the NY Times, CNN and MSNBC's cup of tea, but I think he represents his electorate's world view not a Northeastern state. It's also why the liberal media can't understand why Beto O'Rourke isn't more popular in Texas.
I'm guessing that they tried to do was replicate the British framework and substitute elected officials for hereditary title-holders. The Senate = the House of Lords. The president = the king. And the House = the House of Commons. But Britain was a small, non-regionalized country where the elites were close and very clique-y. And because the British constitution is unwritten and can be "evolved" to whatever people want it to be, the House of Lords / Senate and the Monarchy were disempowered by around 1900 and it became a single chamber electoral democracy.
I wonder if she will find a career path similar to Sarah Palin's.
There is always a job waiting for her in the voter suppression industry. Right, Jali?
I am a bit surprised we haven't seen violence on the House or Senate floor. It could be coming.
As for the two-party system fracturing - there is a whole long thread about that. It might briefly, but would just re-form in a new coalition.
No need to buy. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024
21seats held by Democrats up for grabs vs 10 held by Republicans.
That's rough for the Dems in a 50/50 split.
Huh, really? You can wield a lot of power with a thin margin? No party would ever consider doing that, would they?
Very important point about the map. The map was so-so for Republicans this year. They were defending 21 seats of 35 in play last night.
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