U.S. Agency Says N.Korea Can Mount Warhead on Missile

[Truncador]

Oh, I don't know. Dictators are usually cowards, and history is full of those that chose to exit by the back door when the shit hit the fan. Witness Saddam.

Usually the shit hits the fan after they throw it, so to speak; in other words, what I meant to say is that populist dictators who maintain a cult of personality will typically try to prove what a bunch of heroic tough guys they are by mouthing off to the toughest kid on the block. Sometimes this escalates into suicidal confrontation. Hitler did it, Saddam did it, and now, it would seem, Kim's going to do it to; his game of brinksmanship is starting to look like a death wish.

You don't sit down with jackasses like Kim and talk because you like them, but you sit down and talk because you have to.

If the State condescends to talk to him, at the very least he will understand it to mean that the State is acknowledging him as a player and equal- which will fuel his already-inflated ego and, among other things, make it that much less likely that China might be able to talk some sense into him. At worst, and most likely, he will understand it to mean (and not without reason) that the State is afraid of him- and the last thing you want to do is to get a Fascist thinking you're afraid of him. Furthermore to this point, the Fascist mindset always mistakes willingness to compromise with cowardice, and conversely respects superior force.

More prosaically, as others have said, rewarding his tantrums are a sure-fire way to ensure they'll happen again.

I don't know how it's to be done, but at this point it's clear that Kim's crossed a line and has to go, better sooner than later.

 

[LifeSucks]

History has proven that N. Korea will only listen to a show of strength (remember 66, 78, etc). N. Korea only takes advantage of shows of goodwill. Calling them a part of the axis of evil did not help relations but sadly it is probably more effective then attempting to bargin with them peacefully.

Well, all I can say is good luck, God bless America, and, if you happen to own any real estate in Seattle, dump your assets and move to the East. Sure, the US will prevail in the end if push comes to shove, but no one will be asking whether the US won--of course it will--but whether it was worth ushering in nuclear winter in the Pacific Northwest. And let's pray that the bastards in Pyongyang get their delivery system fixed for good so that the warhead doesn't end up falling on Canada on its way to Seattle.

 

[LifeSucks]

I don't know how it's to be done, but at this point it's clear that Kim's crossed a line and has to go, better sooner than later.

Sure, let us know when you figure it all out. Perhaps an exploding cognac bottle will do the trick, much as the CIA tried to take out Castro with an exploding cigar. Or perhaps hire the Mob for a hit? How about a poisoned wet suit? Then there is my favorite: get him stoned on LSD.

 

[Don]

Well, all I can say is good luck, God bless America, and, if you happen to own any real estate in Seattle, dump your assets and move to the East. Sure, the US will prevail in the end if push comes to shove, but no one will be asking whether the US won--of course it will--but whether it was worth ushering in nuclear winter in the Pacific Northwest. And let's pray that the bastards in Pyongyang get their delivery system fixed for good so that the warhead doesn't end up falling on Canada on its way to Seattle.

Maybe we should join the missile defense system then?

Seruously I don't like this situation anymore than you. But N. Korea is one of those lose-lose situations. There is not going to be a clean solution. N. Korea only listens to a show of force. If N. Korea really does have a nuke (which is a strong possibility) then the US/UN has been patient too long with them and now the world is going to pay the price.

 

[Truncador]

Sure, let us know when you figure it all out. Perhaps an exploding cognac bottle will do the trick, much as the CIA tried to take out Castro with an exploding cigar. Or perhaps hire the Mob for a hit? How about a poisoned wet suit? Then there is my favorite: get him stoned on LSD.

I would be in favour of the State proactively terminating dictators at the pupal stage, when they're still just local figures ranting on soap boxes at the tavern or whatnot. The peace dividend from such a program would far exceed the investment in intelligence, but this is a digression. Right now they should send a couple of cruise missiles down Pyongyang's way in order to impress upon Kim that the shithawks are about to swoop down on him, and that there are certain fatal consequences associated with not hailin' to the chimp. Reagan did something similar with Qadaffi back in the day and he stopped talking stupid after that.

 

[Peeping Tom]

Deterrence can't work with this little nutcase and should be the last thing anyone talks about. Bush should be pressing hard for a meeting of the big players club. The problem with this is that it would identify the real problem here - China. Anything that transpires from the final outcome here will be very useful as it will be the gage of China's true intentions - had those been good, this thing would have been settled a long time ago.

I think Bush is doing the only thing he can do, which is work with China, Japan, Russia and SK to bring the little nutjob to his senses and take the cash. All the other options (sanctions/blockade, invasion, airstrick) just suck.

I worry that deterance won't work with Dear Leader or that he sells one of these nukes to someone who will use it. If he sells one to AQ and they pop it off who do we nuke?

A sticky wicket as the PoMEs would say.

OTB

 

[Peeping Tom]

NK is one of the few cases where sanctions can work - assuming China gets on board. China is the real problem behind this mess. As I just said, the outcome here will show China for what its worth. Unfortunately this impression is bound to be unfavorable but better to learn so sooner rather than later.

 

[LifeSucks]

I would be in favour of the State proactively terminating dictators at the pupal stage, when they're still just local figures ranting on soap boxes at the tavern or whatnot. The peace dividend from such a program would far exceed the investment in intelligence, but this is a digression. Right now they should send a couple of cruise missiles down Pyongyang's way in order to impress upon Kim that the shithawks are about to swoop down on him, and that there are certain fatal consequences associated with not hailin' to the chimp. Reagan did something similar with Qadaffi back in the day and he stopped talking stupid after that.

And what guarantee do you have that this won't break out into an all-out war? Seoul is only two minutes' flight from the DMZ, well within the range of over 10,000 artillery pieces which, without even being tipped with nuclear warheads, can pulverize a city of 10 million people in a couple of hours, and another 10 milion that live in the surrounding metropol area. Would you recommend sending cruise missiles to Pyongyang, if all those artillery happened to be lined within 25 miles of New York City? Sure, most of the ensuing civilian casualty will be S. Koreans, but there is a sizable number of Americans--and Canadians--living in Seoul. Besides, the US has around 36,000 American solidiers stationed in SK, and the vast majority of them are also within NK's artillery range. If 1,000 American casualty in Iraq was bad, wait until they start shipping tens of thousands of dead American soliders back to Connecticut.

The US military is so short in manpower that it has to call up 40 year old farmers on the National Guard to service in Iraq, and is already stretched out as it is with the fiasco there. Washington will need to drag 60 year old grandpas to S.Korea to fight another war on top of Iraq.

Of course, N.K. may not retalitate, but if you are a military planner, you better assume that it will lash back, and once you take this into consideration, it will take a lot more than just a couple of cruise missile to teach the bastards a lesson, but plan for an all-out war.

Reagan bombed Qadaffi because there was nothing the good old colonel could do to pay back. Unfortuantely, the Dear Leader has plenty of easy targets.

 

[LifeSucks]

What I don't agree with, is that this is one nation which sanctions would work. Most of the population is starving anyways while the elite get all the benefits from trade with the west. Take away this trade from the elite and I'll bet you Kim gets a bullet to the back of the head and perhaps a new government might be more willing to play nicely with others.


bbk

Actually, this is one nation where sanctions won't work. North Korea is the most autarkic nation on the face of the earth; it has very little trade with the West. So any sanctions imposed by the US and the West won't even make a dent. But as someone else pointed out, NK is highly dependent on China (and to a somewhat lesser extent, SK), and so the only way sanction can work is if China gets on board with the idea, and Seoul is also convinced of this route. The prospects for this still remain too opaque. While China is losing some patience with Pyongyang, Beijing has a bigger fish to fry--Taiwan, and more recently, Japan. Its decision will not be based on the imperative of disarming NK, but on the regional strategic balance. These are countries that are as close as "lips and teeth," as the Chinese like to say, an alliance forged with the blood of hundreds of thousands of Chinese soliders, including Mao's son, and, more importantly, at the cost of giving up his planned invasion of Taiwan. Mao was ready to cross the straight and drive out the KMT into the sea, but he had to scrap the plan and send his troops to Korea when the GIs marched onto the Yalu River.

The US should lean heavier on China than it has been so far, but it should probably offer some carrots as well. Any deal will probably require some sort of understanding on the Taiwan question, which, at this point, seems highly unlikely to come. But as long as China keeps supplying Pyongyang with food and oil, no sanction is going to work.

 

[onthebottom]

LS, Bush made the same point re: China at his last news conf. He said that this can't be taken to the UNSC because on of the parties (China) could veto.

A blockade / sanction will only work if China leads on this - will be telling on seriously they take their UNSC role.

OTB

 

[xarir]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
North Korea has the ability to mount a nuclear missile on a long-range missile and the communist state could hit U.S. territory, the head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said on Thursday.

Is this the same Intelligence Agency that warned us about all those nasty WMD in Iraq?

 

[red]

Is this the same Intelligence Agency that warned us about all those nasty WMD in Iraq?

did you not read the disclaimer. " Past results are no guarantee of future results"

 

[onthebottom]

Most of this I agree with - this really is China's and Japan's problem - they would better luck than the US. Every agreement the US has entered into with the North has been broken including the cease fire agreement with the UN.

But the little fat bastard only really wants to talk to the US, he's like a little kid looking for attention.

OTB

 

[red]

But the little fat bastard only really wants to talk to the US, he's like a little kid looking for attention.

OTB

if thats true. then ignore him when he acts up, and give him attention when he does things we like. just like raising kids

 

[onthebottom]

if thats true. then ignore him when he acts up, and give him attention when he does things we like. just like raising kids

So your kid kicks you in the shin and you ignore him?

I think Bush working in a coalition (as opposed to what Kerry suggest, unilateral dealings) is as close to ignoring him as we dare get.

OTB

 

[red]

So your kid kicks you in the shin and you ignore him?

I think Bush working in a coalition (as opposed to what Kerry suggest, unilateral dealings) is as close to ignoring him as we dare get.

OTB

if your child is kicking you in the shin- you've let it get out of hand. but tell me, where and when did N korea kick the USA

 

[papasmerf]

who gives a flying F%$k. I heard there is a lady in Mexicao that can mount a donkey

 

[LifeSucks]

This hasn't worked in the past - I mean the carrots and I really fail to see the need to involve Taiwan in this, China seems to be dividing up Taiwan politically very nicely. When the leader of a country, like Kim gets up and tells the world that sanctions means war, then you know they will have an effect.


bbk

Well, Washington can't keep pissing off Beijing with its stance on the Taiwan issue, and still ask China's cooperation to address the nuclear issue in N. Korea. It has to offer something meaningful.

On an interesting side note, I just read that bombing NK's nuclear facility will require one of those bunkerbusters tipped with a nuclear warhead, as the underground facility is burried too deep for any conventional weapons to make a dent. The strike, if it ever materializes, will come when the wind is blowing from Northwest, away from Russia and China toward South Korea, in order to avoid radiation fallouts in those countries. South Korea, on the other hand, is expected to suffer half a million civilian casualty from the fallout alone. Apparently, Washington would rather kill half a million civilians with radiation in the allied country than its former enemy and potential adversary. With a friend like that, who needs an enemy?

 

[onthebottom]

Sucks,

Why don't you burden us with that source....

OTB

 

[Peeping Tom]

This is total BS, as is the rest of the anti American crap you've been spamming around here. Face it, your guys lost, now you're down to the last few men and their fate aint going to be any different.

South Korea, on the other hand, is expected to suffer half a million civilian casualty from the fallout alone. Apparently, Washington would rather kill half a million civilians with radiation in the allied country than its former enemy and potential adversary.