U.S. 2020 Presidential Election Predictions

Dutch Oven

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2019
7,061
2,556
113
The poll industry is cooked after this even if Biden wins.
Let's just call it what it is. Polls are paid for and used by Democrats and/or the political establishment to attempt to influenece public opinion. They are completely unreliable as measures of public opinion. If politics was an honest racket, pollsters would be out of business.
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
27,252
5,377
113
On that math, there would have to be more than just 1 million absentee ballots for Trump to lose. Trump has a 600,000 lead. If 1,000,000 ballots broke 70% for Biden, that would only reduce the gap by 400,000.
I read there's 1.5 million absentee ballots left to count in Pa.

That state won't matter though if Trump loses Michigan and Wisconsin
 

maurice93

Well-known member
Mar 29, 2006
5,976
1,022
113
Fair enough from a reasonable person. But it’s on the limits of the margin of error. And after 2016, for these polls to still have confidence in them going ahead it needed to avoid the far margin of what is acceptable.

So you can argue the problem is not the polls but that people expect them to be more precise then the polls inherently claim to br. Either way this will hurt the polling industry as people start to realize how often they reach these margins, and are not providing the comfort they want.
 

richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
14,862
6,831
113
I read there's 1.5 million absentee ballots left to count in Pa.

That state won't matter though if Trump loses Michigan and Wisconsin
He's going to lose both it seems...Michigan can still swing back but Wisconsin seems like a lock for Joe...
 

Dutch Oven

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2019
7,061
2,556
113
I read there's 1.5 million absentee ballots left to count in Pa.

That state won't matter though if Trump loses Michigan and Wisconsin
My bet is that the number of mail-in ballots is a "floating number" that gets adjusted as the count is made!
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
27,252
5,377
113
Whomever wins 2 out of 3 of Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn wins the election (thats assuming Trump has Georgia and NC in the bag).

Arizona and Nevada probably wont matter anymore
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fun For All

richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
14,862
6,831
113
Whomever wins 2 out of 3 of Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn wins the election (thats assuming Trump has Georgia and NC in the bag).

Arizona and Nevada probably wont matter anymore
That's as precise as it can get...I was talking with my brother from Austin the other day and that's exactly what he's telling me. TX and Florida was a lock in for Trump despite the poll stating Biden can swing it...AZ will swing blue and it's those 3 states that will matter for both candidates...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Phil C. McNasty

Dutch Oven

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2019
7,061
2,556
113
What do you mean by a "floating number"??
I have 0% trust that Pennsylvania ran/is running a clean election. It's amazing to me that the AG of that state could call the election for Biden (via Twitter) before any votes were counted, and yet no one in the media thought that compromised the integrity of the election.
 

Dutch Oven

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2019
7,061
2,556
113
CNN didn't have the balls to call Arizona for the Dems with 80% of vote counted. What do you think they know that we don't?
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
27,252
5,377
113
I’m staying with Biden at 271. Biden will take Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Main 2 For the extra vote.
Maine (going to Biden) wont matter. And neither will Alaska (which is going to Trump)
 

maurice93

Well-known member
Mar 29, 2006
5,976
1,022
113
I may not agree and and sometimes fume at some of the people here with right wing policies and despise what they say.

But this thread is starting to separate those that are at least reasonable... and then we have the lunatics that claim fraud like Dutch.
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
27,252
5,377
113
Trump can still win if he wins Georgia, NC, Pennsylvania and Nevada. He'll get to 270
 

richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
14,862
6,831
113
Trump will definitely be POTUS once again. Guaranteed.
highly unlikely specially Michigan where Biden is moving ahead. It's a wait and see in Pennsylvania and if the pattern follows Wisconsin, that's it for Trump...I don't expect him to lose gracefully as that's not his character...we maybe on the other side of the border but this election can get ugly really fast...
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts