Tosca fired! - where's the real problem
- Thread starter healer677
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They would be letting him walk away at seasons end when his contract expires. Other than 2003, his numbers over the contract havent been 17mil/season worthy thats all I'm trying to say.
The Jays outlook for next year is worst than what they are doing this year. Pistol makes a lot of good points that I agree with...but I'll focus on one: The dissapearing of Delgado's $17 mil off the books. Firstly, the Jays would be breaking even this year (even with the dissapointing attendance) if they didn;t have Delgado on the payroll. So how tempting will it be for them to not use very much of the Delgado savings next year knowing that they can avoid losing money in a year they will likely concede is a wasted year, other than to give some prospects on-the-job training. Not to mention that if a team is in a youth-kick/rebuilding mode, spending very much on well-travelled veterans contradicts that philosophy; not to mention that how many vets WOULD even want to come here, knowing they are just a 1 or 2 year bandaid solution. Answer: only the ones that can't get hooked up in better situations with other teams.
So, for next year's team to duplicate this year's performance, or better it, this is what they will be counting on:
1. Vernon Wells to take over from Delgado as the cleanup hitter/leader who goes back to his MVP-type performance of last year;
2. Alex Rios will have to show that his punch-and-Judy .300 batting average of this year is not only NOT a fluke, but that he can become a run-producer batting out of the 3rd spot;
3. Orlando Hudson's time to put up or shut up is fast approaching. Sure they rave about his defense, but Tony LaRussa once said that 2nd base is the one spot he never worries about - he said that he felt he could teach a trained monkey to play there. Translation: give me a 2nd baseman that can hit consistently, and we can teach him to make the routine plays defensively.
4. Eric Hinske: maybe his time has come to an end here after this season. But because their are so many other positions with huge question marks, and he is still going to be another year away from arbitration, he will get one last shot next season to perform. He would need to handle the expectations of batting in either the 3rd or 5th spot;
5. Left Field: Either Gabe Gross, or Reed Johnson, or platoon of the two, or some other youngster;
6. Shortstop: The end has come for Woodward, same for Chris Gomez. Because Russ Adams will get this job, and he is hitting decently in Syracuse, although no power, Adams probably gets the job handed to him if he shows anything reasonable in 3 weeks when he gets called up for September.
7. 1st base: You can always resort to Catalonatto, who likes the organization and the city. There are no clear prospects for this spot. And rent-a-veteran would be hit-and-miss (ie. KC signed Juan Gonzalez for this past season, and down he went for the year after just 1 month);
8. Catcher: Cash just cannot hit major league pitching; Guilermo Quiroz supposedly is as good or better defenseively than Cash, and has a better track record of hitting in the minors. You still would need a reliable veteran as insurance...maybe Zaun?
9. DH. Maybe Catalonatto is the DH, but then you need a 1st baseman. Probably will sign a free agent vet for one of the two spots.
10. Bullpen. If they go with all rookies, it could be deflating if the offense somehow DOES regain its past form and then watch the bullpen blow lead after lead.
11. Starters: Tough decision, since when/if this team is ready to be a serious contender, which at the earliest would be 2 years away, Lilly, & Batista would not be around. The probable scenario is these 2 are traded by next July, when Jason Arnold and a couple of other young pitching prospects are ready to make the jump.
In conclusion, with so many rookies on the pitching staff, and so many question marks with the offense, including openings at short, first, catcher, left field, and DH, not to mention even less power than what they have this year (which is ranked near the bottom), it will be a very, very long year next season.
Perhaps Ricciardi did Tosca a favour...especially if the rumour of Joe Torre hiring Tosca as a coach for next year materialize...
So, for next year's team to duplicate this year's performance, or better it, this is what they will be counting on:
1. Vernon Wells to take over from Delgado as the cleanup hitter/leader who goes back to his MVP-type performance of last year;
2. Alex Rios will have to show that his punch-and-Judy .300 batting average of this year is not only NOT a fluke, but that he can become a run-producer batting out of the 3rd spot;
3. Orlando Hudson's time to put up or shut up is fast approaching. Sure they rave about his defense, but Tony LaRussa once said that 2nd base is the one spot he never worries about - he said that he felt he could teach a trained monkey to play there. Translation: give me a 2nd baseman that can hit consistently, and we can teach him to make the routine plays defensively.
4. Eric Hinske: maybe his time has come to an end here after this season. But because their are so many other positions with huge question marks, and he is still going to be another year away from arbitration, he will get one last shot next season to perform. He would need to handle the expectations of batting in either the 3rd or 5th spot;
5. Left Field: Either Gabe Gross, or Reed Johnson, or platoon of the two, or some other youngster;
6. Shortstop: The end has come for Woodward, same for Chris Gomez. Because Russ Adams will get this job, and he is hitting decently in Syracuse, although no power, Adams probably gets the job handed to him if he shows anything reasonable in 3 weeks when he gets called up for September.
7. 1st base: You can always resort to Catalonatto, who likes the organization and the city. There are no clear prospects for this spot. And rent-a-veteran would be hit-and-miss (ie. KC signed Juan Gonzalez for this past season, and down he went for the year after just 1 month);
8. Catcher: Cash just cannot hit major league pitching; Guilermo Quiroz supposedly is as good or better defenseively than Cash, and has a better track record of hitting in the minors. You still would need a reliable veteran as insurance...maybe Zaun?
9. DH. Maybe Catalonatto is the DH, but then you need a 1st baseman. Probably will sign a free agent vet for one of the two spots.
10. Bullpen. If they go with all rookies, it could be deflating if the offense somehow DOES regain its past form and then watch the bullpen blow lead after lead.
11. Starters: Tough decision, since when/if this team is ready to be a serious contender, which at the earliest would be 2 years away, Lilly, & Batista would not be around. The probable scenario is these 2 are traded by next July, when Jason Arnold and a couple of other young pitching prospects are ready to make the jump.
In conclusion, with so many rookies on the pitching staff, and so many question marks with the offense, including openings at short, first, catcher, left field, and DH, not to mention even less power than what they have this year (which is ranked near the bottom), it will be a very, very long year next season.
Perhaps Ricciardi did Tosca a favour...especially if the rumour of Joe Torre hiring Tosca as a coach for next year materialize...
Tosca
Save Ferris I absolutely agree JP did Tosca a favour. He collects the remainder of this season's salary without the day to day torment of losing! He proved to a be a standup guy who will end up on someone's coaching staff eventually.
As for next year, it is my belief that a season or two of going with youth and getting clubbered is better than this treadmill we've been on. Hiring enough Gomez', Berg's and Zaun's to keep us competitive, but never able to win. If Russ Adams makes a mistake he'll learn from it. As would Gross, Arnold and the others.
When the current castoffs make an error, it merely serves to confirm they aren't good enough.
To backup a second, I concur with those who feel Phelps likely to come back and haunt us. I doubt he'll ever be an all-star, but I think in the right setting he can be a 20 HR 75-90 RBI guyon a consistant basis.
Save Ferris I absolutely agree JP did Tosca a favour. He collects the remainder of this season's salary without the day to day torment of losing! He proved to a be a standup guy who will end up on someone's coaching staff eventually.
As for next year, it is my belief that a season or two of going with youth and getting clubbered is better than this treadmill we've been on. Hiring enough Gomez', Berg's and Zaun's to keep us competitive, but never able to win. If Russ Adams makes a mistake he'll learn from it. As would Gross, Arnold and the others.
When the current castoffs make an error, it merely serves to confirm they aren't good enough.
To backup a second, I concur with those who feel Phelps likely to come back and haunt us. I doubt he'll ever be an all-star, but I think in the right setting he can be a 20 HR 75-90 RBI guyon a consistant basis.
The problem with Phelps if he achieves the #'s you are projecting for him Pistol is that as a guy who as of now is regarded as "only" a DH - there are only 14 spots available throughout the league for him, therefore, to hold down a position he'd have to do better than 20HR/80RBI, otherwise he'll be a platoon DH/pinch hitter/backup 1st baseman/emergency catcher. Hard to believe this guy came up through the minors as a backcatcher!
You look around the league at the DH's - Frank Thomas, Travis Haffner, Dmitri Young, Mike Sweeney (central div), David Ortiz, Bernie Williams (east), Edgar Martinez, Erubiel Durazo, Tim Salmon (west). Phelps' best options would be teams that don;t really have a DH - Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Texas, OR, teams with guys who put up similar or weaker stats than Phelps' potential - Oakland, California, Baltimore, Seattle. That leaves 7 major league spots for Phelps - and he'll be competing with the annual list of veterans that are holding on but can no longer play the field - Juan Gonzalez, David Segui, etc. - plus Cleveland would have to trade him/let him go - which they might after this season cause I think he's eligible for arbitration.
So, I think Toronto just ended Phelps' major league career by trading him, or at least they've sentenced him to being a platoon bench player with no position. Phelps' best chance at an everyday job where he could break out and have that big season we've all been waiting for was actually to stay with the Jays! Toronto will be in desperate need of any power they can find next year. Oh well, maybe Ricciardi is planning on re-signing him once Cleveland non-tenders him this December.
You look around the league at the DH's - Frank Thomas, Travis Haffner, Dmitri Young, Mike Sweeney (central div), David Ortiz, Bernie Williams (east), Edgar Martinez, Erubiel Durazo, Tim Salmon (west). Phelps' best options would be teams that don;t really have a DH - Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Texas, OR, teams with guys who put up similar or weaker stats than Phelps' potential - Oakland, California, Baltimore, Seattle. That leaves 7 major league spots for Phelps - and he'll be competing with the annual list of veterans that are holding on but can no longer play the field - Juan Gonzalez, David Segui, etc. - plus Cleveland would have to trade him/let him go - which they might after this season cause I think he's eligible for arbitration.
So, I think Toronto just ended Phelps' major league career by trading him, or at least they've sentenced him to being a platoon bench player with no position. Phelps' best chance at an everyday job where he could break out and have that big season we've all been waiting for was actually to stay with the Jays! Toronto will be in desperate need of any power they can find next year. Oh well, maybe Ricciardi is planning on re-signing him once Cleveland non-tenders him this December.
Toronto's biggest problem (like Baltimore and Tampa Bay) is that baseball's top two payrolls both reside in the American League East. Year-in, year-out they have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.
Now THAT is the wisest, most accurate statement that anyone has made! The Jays are trying to become contenders by assembling a group of young stars (who's salaries are still low enough to fit on the payroll), while Boston & NY (and Baltimore to an extent) just go out and "buy" a "sure thing" - or almost-sure thing.
So, the Jays chances of being successful with the youth movement may be say, 25%. Let's assume they DO succeed. Well, Boston, NY, and Balt will recoignize that Toronto will be a contender, so they will go out and sign the Miguel Tejada's, Gary Sheffield's, and Curt Schilling's of the world in order to maintain their edge.
So the sad truth is, even if everything goes right for Toronto's rebuilding plan, it still would be no guarantee of a playoff team, as long as they are in this division.
So, the Jays chances of being successful with the youth movement may be say, 25%. Let's assume they DO succeed. Well, Boston, NY, and Balt will recoignize that Toronto will be a contender, so they will go out and sign the Miguel Tejada's, Gary Sheffield's, and Curt Schilling's of the world in order to maintain their edge.
So the sad truth is, even if everything goes right for Toronto's rebuilding plan, it still would be no guarantee of a playoff team, as long as they are in this division.
There's nothing to do about what Division they're in, but as long as they're competetive for the wildcard, I think that would be viewed as a success at the end of Ricciardi's tenure.
As for Phelps, his numbers are declining over the past three seasons. For a 26 year-old you expect to develop into a premiere power hitter, those numbers don't support the expectations.
As for Phelps, his numbers are declining over the past three seasons. For a 26 year-old you expect to develop into a premiere power hitter, those numbers don't support the expectations.
the problem with what division they're in is that they can forget about 1st place, and also forget about 2nd place. And if they don;t make 1st or 2nd, they are not going to win the wild card.
As far as competing for the wild card, they have to compete with the following teams that spend WAY more than Toronto ever will: NYY, Boston, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Anaheim, Seattle, Texas. That's 9 teams - 3 will win their division, that leaves 6 larger market teams competing for the wild card, along with the Jays. And then there are small market teams that seem to find a way to compete each year - like Oakland. So competing for the wild card is no easy mission.
As far as competing for the wild card, they have to compete with the following teams that spend WAY more than Toronto ever will: NYY, Boston, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Anaheim, Seattle, Texas. That's 9 teams - 3 will win their division, that leaves 6 larger market teams competing for the wild card, along with the Jays. And then there are small market teams that seem to find a way to compete each year - like Oakland. So competing for the wild card is no easy mission.
I expect J.P. will be gone by the end of the season. That said I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the following taking over the bench for the Jays next season.
Ernie Whitt- Former Jay and manager of Team Canada
Tim Lieper- Ottawa Lynx manager. Will come cheap, may also be on Whitt's staff
Kevin Kennedy- Fox broadcaster. May leave to take over young team.
John Gibbons- May just stick around.
Ernie Whitt- Former Jay and manager of Team Canada
Tim Lieper- Ottawa Lynx manager. Will come cheap, may also be on Whitt's staff
Kevin Kennedy- Fox broadcaster. May leave to take over young team.
John Gibbons- May just stick around.
Unfortunately what "they" don;t tell us about the Oakland model, or money-ball, is that in order for it to work you need to have an established mix of talent, from older veterans that know their roles, to a core group of players who have 3-5 years of service under their belts, to being able to introduce 2-3 solid rookie prospects each year to the team.
Oakland has done things that most teams would not, including Ricciardi. For instance, they signed Scott Hatteberg off the scrap heap about 3 years ago, at the time a backup platoon backcatcher. His potential was of a decent on-base, no-power, platoon guy. The A's took a major chance with him, teaching him to play 1st base to replace Giambi. They've held on to him, and this year he's having his best season yet. Any other MLB team would have signed him for 1 year as a pinch hitter/part-time DH, and then axed him at the end of the year in favor of someone they thought might hit for more power.
Oakland has done things that most teams would not, including Ricciardi. For instance, they signed Scott Hatteberg off the scrap heap about 3 years ago, at the time a backup platoon backcatcher. His potential was of a decent on-base, no-power, platoon guy. The A's took a major chance with him, teaching him to play 1st base to replace Giambi. They've held on to him, and this year he's having his best season yet. Any other MLB team would have signed him for 1 year as a pinch hitter/part-time DH, and then axed him at the end of the year in favor of someone they thought might hit for more power.
The next manager, if chosen by JP, will most definately have a proven major league track record. Hiring Tosca who had not had major league managing experience was ok at the time, because JP had full control of the team, full backing of the organization and its fans, so he hired a yes man to give himself even greater control over the team. But now that his star is fading, he will not allow an inexperienced manager to speed up his firing. He will give up control to someone that is a proven winner...so no Ernioe Whitt, no Lynx manager, no Gibbons.
J.P. won't go before the end of the season after next.Tiger2578 said:
I like the idea of Whitt, actually. I'm not so sure they're going to gun for someone with lots of experience. They need a change from Tosca's managerial style, though, that's certain.
Actually, I just reread some of this thread, and came across this little bit. LaRussa can be so full of shit it's unbelievable.SaveFerris said:
The only two more difficult positions to play are catcher and shortstop. I don't know how easy it is to *learn* second base - I suspect it's much easier than learning to catch, probably similar to about everywhere else. I DO know that not many left-fielders play second in a pinch. Or first-basemen. Whereas lots of secondbasemen fill in all over the diamond. This reality is reflected in Bill James defensive spectrum. What does this tell you about how easy it is to play secondbase vs. everywhere else?
Sure, you can teach someone to know how to make the routine plays, but will that person make them? Probably not nearly as much as someone who *should* be playing the position. What about the non-routine plays? What's the ratio of the two?
Secondbase is a very important defensive position, only superceded by (catcher, perhaps, and) shortstop. LaRussa's minimization of this importance must reflect some point he was trying to make when he said it. It's still bullshit.
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- Jun 15, 2004
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I think the public relations of the current Jays suck. I remember back in the day, guys like Willie Upshaw, Lloyd Mosbey, Dave Windfield, Dave Stewart, Dave steib, Paul Molitor, Kelly Gruber, Jimmy Key, even George Bell (and many more)
These guys (to name a few) had such good public relations with the city of Toronto. For instance, all the charity drives and events, banquet dinners and charity lunches, children progams and activity groups, disease research funds, ect. The list goes on and on. They kept the players close to the community and most importantly the "kids of Toronto". That kept more people in Skydome and the EX, and that made the players much more endorsable. And, people in Toronto could identify with that. And that gave good old Pat a whole lot of money to play with. It was the old school understanding of what baseball is suppose to be and how to implement it in a Country (where at the time) was not know for its high heat and yard long bombs. It was the perfect approach to sell Baseball in Canada. In particular a city with a blue maple leaf tattoo on it.
The way the Toronto Blue Jays head office works now, they don't care about Torontonians, so why should Torontonians care about them? I think the problem comes down to fan interest and money. They have no choice but to rely on the farm systems because they won't dish out enough revenue cash for big signings, when things are clearly on the decline. They don't know what tomorrow will bring, and they can't figure out the real root to the problem.
That's the problem.
These guys (to name a few) had such good public relations with the city of Toronto. For instance, all the charity drives and events, banquet dinners and charity lunches, children progams and activity groups, disease research funds, ect. The list goes on and on. They kept the players close to the community and most importantly the "kids of Toronto". That kept more people in Skydome and the EX, and that made the players much more endorsable. And, people in Toronto could identify with that. And that gave good old Pat a whole lot of money to play with. It was the old school understanding of what baseball is suppose to be and how to implement it in a Country (where at the time) was not know for its high heat and yard long bombs. It was the perfect approach to sell Baseball in Canada. In particular a city with a blue maple leaf tattoo on it.
The way the Toronto Blue Jays head office works now, they don't care about Torontonians, so why should Torontonians care about them? I think the problem comes down to fan interest and money. They have no choice but to rely on the farm systems because they won't dish out enough revenue cash for big signings, when things are clearly on the decline. They don't know what tomorrow will bring, and they can't figure out the real root to the problem.
That's the problem.
There are a bunch of things that have hampered the Jays organization since the glory days of World Series past:
* Salaries: The cost of salaries has actually had an impact on teams that were on the edge the Jays were. Salaries were on the edge of going overboard where small market teams had little to no chance of making the play-offs. Toronto took advantage of the timing and captured two world series by doing so. Beeston & Gillick deserve credit for thier economic foresight
* Scouting: The Jays have drastically cut their scouting departments both nationally & internationally. This has hurt their ability to recruit future baseball talent and has affected their quality of teams within the farm system. Having a solid farm system not only provides them with future talent, but it provides them with the leverage to make deals with teams in the event that the current year mother team has a chance of making the play-offs.
* Marketing: The Jays have had shit advertising doing their marketing these past couple of years (Echo Advertising). They have lost the youth market and tried to focus on the "North" market. Give me a fucking break! The best marketing is a good team and winning (which the Jays are responsible for). I thought that Paul Godfrey may be able to bring some support to the team, but it appears that he has been a major bust too.
But the biggest problem of all is baseball itself! Until they figure out that having a few traditional teams is not enough to get by on...then nothing will be done! Sooner or later everyone will be sick of the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, etc. Unfortunately, that will be later and the game itself will suffer.
Oy! Baseball really does stink from the head down.
* Salaries: The cost of salaries has actually had an impact on teams that were on the edge the Jays were. Salaries were on the edge of going overboard where small market teams had little to no chance of making the play-offs. Toronto took advantage of the timing and captured two world series by doing so. Beeston & Gillick deserve credit for thier economic foresight
* Scouting: The Jays have drastically cut their scouting departments both nationally & internationally. This has hurt their ability to recruit future baseball talent and has affected their quality of teams within the farm system. Having a solid farm system not only provides them with future talent, but it provides them with the leverage to make deals with teams in the event that the current year mother team has a chance of making the play-offs.
* Marketing: The Jays have had shit advertising doing their marketing these past couple of years (Echo Advertising). They have lost the youth market and tried to focus on the "North" market. Give me a fucking break! The best marketing is a good team and winning (which the Jays are responsible for). I thought that Paul Godfrey may be able to bring some support to the team, but it appears that he has been a major bust too.
But the biggest problem of all is baseball itself! Until they figure out that having a few traditional teams is not enough to get by on...then nothing will be done! Sooner or later everyone will be sick of the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, etc. Unfortunately, that will be later and the game itself will suffer.
Oy! Baseball really does stink from the head down.
- Jun 15, 2004
- 8,180
- 1,225
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Very interesting points. I would agree that selling the whole "baseball in the cold" theme was and has been a meaningless and boring novelty. I wasn't aware that they had cut back on there recruiting though. That explains a few things.
What I always thought would be cool, is if baseball used the kind of playoff system hockey uses. Top 8 from the National and top 8 from the American. You have the first 2 rounds in both divisions 3/5 (which I feel could be accomplished by extending the season a total of two weeks max. One week earlier and one week later) That would give small market teams a longer time to be interested and more hope that if their home team has two or three good starters, they can knock off the Yanks, Sox, Braves or whatever. Some may argue, well why play 160+ games in the first place? Well, home field advantage for the first two games and more playoff revenue money for more teams. I hate the whole wild card thing. You could be the third best team in the league, and not make the playoffs. To me, that makes little sense.
What I always thought would be cool, is if baseball used the kind of playoff system hockey uses. Top 8 from the National and top 8 from the American. You have the first 2 rounds in both divisions 3/5 (which I feel could be accomplished by extending the season a total of two weeks max. One week earlier and one week later) That would give small market teams a longer time to be interested and more hope that if their home team has two or three good starters, they can knock off the Yanks, Sox, Braves or whatever. Some may argue, well why play 160+ games in the first place? Well, home field advantage for the first two games and more playoff revenue money for more teams. I hate the whole wild card thing. You could be the third best team in the league, and not make the playoffs. To me, that makes little sense.
