Too Much Immigration ?

[Sea]

Wow what a bunch of racists sorry but you don't mind getting massages from girls from other countries, well at least they are working doing what it takes to get by.
Sorry but I was born in this beautiful country but I have the patience for stupid people.
What the hell do you people think, look at how many white canadian bums as most people call them are on welfare then look at immigrants.
If it were not for immigrants this country would be nothing so don't give me your bull-shit.
When a doctor from india or china is driving a cab then there is something wrong with the system.
But look at Canadians born here, they have the best opportunity to education then any immigrant has what the hell is there excuse, the damn govenment even gives you loans to go to university if you don't have it and still they can't make it.
Sorry you are all making excuses cause you can't make anything of your lives and you know what it is all your own fault.
So don't blame your pathetic lives on immigrants because without ambition you will never achieve anything.

 

[mr. x]

ice_dog:

i remember 87 - i tried to buy some stocks figuring it was a great opportunity - but my broker wouldn'tdo any trades on margin... i would have made a bundle.

i wonder how it compared with what happened on the markets last september.

yes, the aftermath of the oil embargo was one reason why the dollar went up to $1.05 in the mid 70s - but the opil embargo itself was in 73.

i also remember reading that in the late 50s/ early 60s, when it dropped to 92.5 cents during diefenbaker's time as PM, people were outraged!

Sea:

i don't know about the other few people who are for less immigration, but i am not blaming immigration for my "pathetic life" - but thats because my life isn't pathetic - i am a university educated professional making good money. in fact, i would assume that most of the people who post here have above average incomes - this is not a hobby for poor people on welfare or EI!

stop with the insults - we are trying to have a constructive debate here based on an economic analysis of the impact of immigration - its not about bashing canadians or immigrants - in both groups you will find hard working ambitious people, and lazy sods who are taking advantage of our social programs... the only thing you said that makes any sense is that the system is screwed!

 

[mr. x]

for example, you would like to see a short term labour shortage, presumably because that would force canadian firms to pay more money to their workforces, and provide the illusion of a higher standard of living--for a short while, until those firms fail in competition with foreign firms. actually business thrives when there is a labour surplus, providing that consumer spending doesn't drop off.

since any negative effect on wages resulting from immigration would be a result of a dilution rather than a contraction there would be no corresponding reduction in consumer spending, and yet labour costs would go down. while people might not like it, that's likely good for our economy since our firms will subsequently thrive.

now i would like to see real wage increases in Canada, predicated on real growth in our economy, not artificial increases resulting from a temporary labour shortage.

the surest way to grow your economy is to increase productivity and economic output, and in a longer time frame, to increase the capital investment in your infrastructure, and build economies of ever larger scale. immigration works towards every one of these issues.

productivity goes up because immigrants arrive here with skills and experience and, with a little language and cultural assistance, ready and willing to work. that increaess productivity by providing you with human capital someone else paid to develop.

economic output increases because immigrants start new businesses and often bring fresh capital. capital investments in our infrastructure increase because of the larger number of people contributing, leading to economies of scale where we can begin to compete on equal footing with larger competitors.

one of our big problems with the US is that they are just too damn big. a canadian company with 90% market penetration in canada is about the same size as a company with 9% market penetration in the US. we just don't scale the way they do, because we're too small. thus our fixed capital costs are not divided across as many outputs as theirs are, and we simply don't develop the same momentum.

increasing the size of our economy is a good thing, and unless canadians change their attitudes dramatically, we're not going to accomplish it through births.

applejack:

first off, i don't think increasing our birth rate will solve things - its not about population growth - i think we are better off with a smaller more highly trained workforce than a bigger one with less skills.

as you say, business thrives when there is a labour surplus - of course - with a surplus they can keep wages low, and keep any gains in productivity for themselves - this is one reason why incomes have been stagnant.

but where is the gain in productivity that we were supposed to get from free trade, privatising crown corporations, various mergers, technology. etc. the uS has had gains - but we haven't - or more precicely - any gain in productivity has been countered by some other force that is pushing productivity down - and i think that the immigration based labour surplus is the cause.

a labour shortage would increase productivity - and not be a short term illusion. right now - with low wages and the low dollar, inefficient business are still profitable, and many businesses do not have any incentive to make capital investments that might reduce their need for labour. if companies that cannot afford to pay a good wage go out of business, then productivety overall will improve because those firms that drag us down are no longer pulling the average down.

in terms of wages, a short term gain in wages would be an illusory increase in our standard of living - it would set off an inflationary spiral - except that the gains in productivty should counter this.

where my theory has a flaw is in implementation - and specifically it comes from the bank of canada. the other thread that started this debate was initially talking about the bank of canada and inflation.

the bank of canada would see any increase in wages as inflationary - which is funny because they don't see any increase in profits as inflationary, do they! whe wages go up faster than the cost of living - that is called a higher standard of living - at least - if there is a gain in productivity that accompanies it, or if it comes out of excess profits (ie., the companies can easily absorb the extra cost and not necessarily have to increase prices).

with regards to the US being big - wasn't free trade supposed to eliminate this sort of issue - in that canadian firms and US firms now have equal access to a market of 310 million people, plus mexico.

 

[vidi vici veni]

A history of the Canadian dollar

nobody has yet to answer my question - why is it ithat over the last 30 years we have fallen behind th eUS? in 1975 the canadain dollar was worth more than a US dollar.

If you would like to read an historical analysis of the Canadian dollar, go to:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/dollar_book/full_text-e.htm

It's a pretty interesting read. Enjoy!

vvv

 

[ice_dog]

[ice_dog:

i remember 87 - i tried to buy some stocks figuring it was a great opportunity - but my broker wouldn'tdo any trades on margin... i would have made a bundle.

Well , I don't remember much about the 50's and 60's. Guess I m younger than you are.

I did not mean the oil embargo started in 1975, The effect of oil embargo cetainly lasted thru the late 70s. 1975 was certainly in that time frame. In those days, evertbody wanted a job with Oil company. Everbody wanted to be a chemical engineer or petroleum engineer.

I also remember back then some 'expert' with Royal Bank predicted that the crude oil price would hit $80/barel by the late 90s. Well, I hope that jerk is no longer working as an economist.

As for playing the market, going long is always safer than going short. I shorted Amazon @65 and 75. My account was wiped out when the price went over $90. I would have surved if my broker had given me 4 more months.

As for now AMZN is below $20. It is all timing.

 

[ice_dog]

Time for Closure


I know I started this thread. It is about time to move on. Enough is enough

 

[mr. x]

well, a lot has been said and the discussion is running out of steam... but a few more thoughts...

applejack - the thing is that there is no magic level of immigration - what is appropriate depends on the times and the opportunities.

for example - immigration to canada peaked in 1905 - at 400,000 people that year! of course, most of them were going to the prairies to farm on land that that had previously been home to buffalo and indians.

immigration to canada was also relatively high in the 1950s - and the canadian economy expanded and grew - but remember this was during the cold war, europe and japan were still rebuilding, most 3rd world countries were still colonies (and we had better access to these than the US because we were part of the commonwealth/british empire).

with globalisation - you do not need a big domestic population to get economies of scale.

anyway, i used to be as big a supporter of immigration as most of the people here who are in favour of it - and i still think some immigration is good - but we seem to accept it without really questioning it.

i have come to think we have gone too far - just as we got carried away with peacekeeping and ended up screwing up in somalia - its like a religous belief to some people. we want to do good and be liked and not be seen as being prejudiced or racist (as a country and as individual canadians) but sometimes we lose sight of reality...

we sometimes criticize americans for not looking beyond their borders and seeing how other people do things - like with health care, or on their policy on the middle east, or whatever - but we are the same on immigration - we do not look at what other industrialised countries do in regards to immigration - we think we have all the answers already.

i do not necessarily think growth is good - if that growth merely means more people instead of a higher standard of living - adding a couple of million people to the GTA will not make us richer on average.

maybe if we cut back immigration and took only the ones we really needed or wanted - cut back on refugees and family class and fixed some of the other problems - we would be better off - thats all i really am saying in the end.

yes, immigrants come here and work hard and so on, but i think that immgration has outstripped our ability to absorb them - and thats why the dollar is down...

i have no other explanation - and nothing here has seriously challenged my beliefs/understanding of this issue...

just as some worry about the effect the debt will have on the next generations, i worry that our standard of living will decline - not so much for myself, but for others...

 

[ice_dog]

Reply to Mr.X 's ever-lasting Renting

I wanted a closure, but I am really sick and tired of your renting. and decided to give you a lecture in economics 101

The fucking loonie is down because

(1) The commodity price has been down for the last 10 years. Gold was as high as $800/ounce in 1980 and Crude oilw as $40/barel. As of today, Gold has finally bottomed out, I hope and is trading aroudn $325 and crude oil is trading @$25.8

(2) In the late 80's when the country was run by the Tories, the prime rate here was consistently 200 base points higher than the U.S.prime The CAD was worth 85 cents U.S. The recession in early 90s hit Canada a lot harder than U.S. Free Trade hit Ontario the hardest. When the Liberal took over in 1993, Bank of Canada lowered the Canadian prime so much, it is now 200 base points below the U.S. prime. That is 400 base points, or 4% swing !


Listen, Mr. X, if Bank of Canada raise the Canadian prime by 4%, so that it is 200 base points higher the U.S. prime, just like the late 80s, you can bet your xxx that the CAD will be worth a lot more, maybe 75 cents U.S. Will be happy with that ?

Finally, do you think there is more than 1 million immigrants in GTA, and that bothers you, eh? For your info, the biggest ethnic group is chinese and there is about 300,000 in GTA, My guess is that at least one third of them were born here. THEY ARE NOT IMMIGRANTS !! My estimate is that total immigrants in GTA are well under 1 million.

Did you know that since 1976 when PQ took over Quebec, over hallf a million of Montrealers have settled in GTA ? The real estate agents can tell you that. Only morons will blame everything on immigrants !

Needelss to say real estate is cheap in Montreal. Same thing is true for SPs.,Montreal has much better value than GTA. I bet your xxx that you did not know that ! But that is a different topic and I will save that for a different thread.

Last but not least, Mr.X, you will get a bill for your tuition in the mail !


p.s.

When you make an assertion, better use some facts to back up your theory, and you have not demonstrated that yet !

 

[mr. x]

dog:

i have a business degree, so i don't need any lessons in economics.

i already indicated that i accept the low commodity prices as being part of the reason the dollar is so low - just as high oild prices were part of the reason the dollar hit $1.05 in the mid 70s...

purchase price parity studies suggest that the dollar should be at 85 cents...

john crow went on an insane quest for a zero percent inflation rate - it pushed the dollar up, and killed the economy at a time when free trade was kicking in - and US firms had to decide what to do with Canadian plants, and canaidian companies needed cash to expand or invest to adjust - we got killed by the combination. this articial raising of the value of the dollar is not what i am talking about - a high dollar is a good thing only if you can achieve it with low inflation and low unemployment.

ya - so the BoC rate isnow below the US rate - but inflation here is about the same as the US - or even lower at times. if the BoC pegged inflation rates to the US rate, the dollar would rise - and unemployment would rise - this is part of my point - we have been hiding the fact that there is a labour surplus in this country by a policy of low interest rates and a low dollar!

the US unemployment rate is 6%, versus 7.7% here - and this is with the low dollar and the US being in a recssion with the unemployment rate at a 7 year high!

i am not bothered by the number of people in the GTA who were not born in the GTA, or Canada for that matter - but i am concerned about suburban spawl and the lack of investment in transit, schools, etc. but my arguments do not just deal with growth in the GTA - vancouver gets a lot of immigration - and it too sits on some of the best farmalnd in BC - even the montreal area is growing due to immigration - though as you say, there is movment of people to toronto.... no - my arguments about immigration started with the state of the Canadian economy as a whole - and the GTA stuff is secondary to the argument - as is stuff about the enviroment, and how we are screwing the 3rd world countries we so often talk about helping, by luring away their best people.

we think we are helping our economy to improve , and also being progressive and politically correct, by having ridiculously high immigration levels - i am just pointing out some of the contradictions and potential problems.

as for facts - i have used up a few, but the point of this was that my views about immigration are a theory that i am expolring because i have found no better theory to explain why we are lagging behind the US in incomes, productivity and our standard of living.

the problem with this debate is that it hasn't so much been a debate as a bunch of unsubstantiated opinions - often based on the usual platitiudes about how wonderful immigration is - with a little immigrant bashing and canadian bashing being thrown in, as well as a few persoanl attacks.

i wonder why i bother.

 

[Quest4Less]

Good or Bad?

Whether immigration is good or bad really depends on the immigrant.... If they come in and work hard, contribute to society, and do not bring their wars and hatred here then it's good. If they come here and go on welfare, start spitting out kids like roaches, and contribute nothing while demanding everything in return then it's bad. That's really the bottom line is it not?

 

[vidi vici veni]

Immigration and Population

[snip]the problem with this debate is that it hasn't so much been a debate as a bunch of unsubstantiated opinions - often based on the usual platitiudes about how wonderful immigration is - with a little immigrant bashing and canadian bashing being thrown in, as well as a few persoanl attacks.

i wonder why i bother.

Mr. x:
I think your point comes down to the idea that Canada should be articulating a population policy and then seeing how immigration helps/hinders its goals? That seems reasonable to me.

vvv

 

[ice_dog]

dog:

i have a business degree, so i don't need any lessons in economics.

.

It means nothing . Business degrees are a dime a dozen.

 

[mr. x]

Re: Good or Bad?

Whether immigration is good or bad really depends on the immigrant.... If they come in and work hard, contribute to society, and do not bring their wars and hatred here then it's good. If they come here and go on welfare, start spitting out kids like roaches, and contribute nothing while demanding everything in return then it's bad. That's really the bottom line is it not?

well, no.

if it was possible to tell in advance which immigrants will do well -things would be much easier - most immigrants who come here make out okay - they work hard, etc. its not about individual immigrants, as such.

its more about the effect of high levels of immigration on the economy - part of my point has been that we have a labour surplus but do not realise it because the dollar is so low.

did you read this thread from the beginning?



to go back a little - there were comments about immgrants bringing lots of capital with them - i want to discuss this a little.

most immigrants who come here have some savings - but for the most part they come here because they want a higher standard of living - that is - they aren't rich enough to bring much cash with them...

and with the end of the cold war - there is no need for canada as a safe haven for rich europeans, etc.

the mulroney tories added a program called the "immigrant investor" program - the idea was that letting in those rich businessmen who wanted to come here would be good for the economy - they could invest, create jobs, etc. for example - bill gates is a university drop out - he might not qualify under the points system!

anyway, the idea was particularly designed to attract businessmen from hong kong - because this was before the take-over by china.

i read an analysis of this mess in the paper a few years back. but the program is a boondogle!

of course - many HK businessmen applied - they moved their families here and many spent time here. there were stories about the kids being left alone in big suburban houses while their parents were almost never in the country.

you see - many of the HK businessmen took it like a form of insurance - they never really moved here permanently - and since things in HK didn't turn out so bad, they are never going to move here.

i have a friend who moved back to HK because he found the business climate here to slow and boring! he was not alone in this view.

the other thing was that these people were required tomake an investment in canada - 2 problems here - first was that many just bought up strip malls, or made other investments that met the rules but didn't create any new jobs. the second thing was that once they were here - no one was actually follwing up to see that people were doing what they promised.

in effect, we were selling canadian citizenship to people, but never got paid for it!

another example of mismangement of immigration policy and its implementation.

 

[mr. x]

It means nothing . Business degrees are a dime a dozen.

it was in response to your comment/joke about tuition... my point is only that i have a good general knowledge of economic theory - i have also done some reading on my own in the area.

yes, business degrees are too common these days - and often people who get business degrees have little real curiousity and are not intellectually well rounded

i have a couple of other degrees too. unfortunately, our economy turns out too many university graduates in arts, business and law, and not enough in sciences and technology - and also apprenticeships in things like tool & dye making etc., more like the european model.

50 years ago - anyone who went to university was part of an elite because so few people got degrees - and only the smartest or richest could go - these days most people with university educations are pretty ignorant of everything outside of their little niche - its more like 3 or 4 extra years of high school!

not that i completely agree with standard economic theories - much is left out - and i think that many of the studies that purport to show the beneifts of immigration are wrong. this would be the subject of a whole other debate!

 

[ice_dog]

Re: While I am not joining this debate........

attached is related article in National Post.

Also.....to ice_dog's comment "Business Degrees are a dime a dozen".......I am very proud of mine (Honours) and listen up!!! ..
.....

My post was a re-action to the countless posts by Mr. X. I know it offended other people like you, which was not my intention.

Getting a degree is a learning process. Some degrees are more demanding than others. The important thing is to be able to use what you learned in school and continue to learn in the next level in the real world.

I have come across many successful people in business who never went to university. I don't suppose Troy(of VIP) or Kasey (of Friends) have business degrees, but their agencies are among the tops in GTA.

I have also known many poepel with busines degrees, but has never owned or run any business, and never intend to learn to do so.

An then, if your degree is from 25 years ago, it is probably out-dated.

I have degrees from top univesities in U.S., but I never brag about them.

 

[Quest4Less]

Bragging...

"I have degrees from top univesities in U.S., but I never brag about them." - ice_dog



Sounds like you just did....

 

[Cool Dude]

Re: Re: While I am not joining this debate........

..if your degree is from 25 years ago, it is probably out-dated.

I have degrees from top univesities in U.S., but I never brag about them.

I suspect alumni from those "top" universities would rather you keep quiet about which schools you graduated from; especially the alumni with the "outdated" degrees.

 

[Cool Dude]

Re: Re: While I am not joining this debate........

I have also known many poepel with busines degrees, but has never owned or run any business, and never intend to learn to do so.

English major? Sorry ice_dog, those of us with "outdated" and "dime a dozen" business degrees tend to focus in on grammar and spelling mistakes.

 

[wollensak]

Escort and MBAs.

Vanessa:

I am indeed impressed. It takes a lot of dedication, smarts and focus to get an MBA degree.

Once again truth is stranger than fiction. I am not being sarcastic
by the way. I can't handle the company of women who play dumb. I need to be with smart ones.

To me this is a much more interesting idea for a thread than some immigration diatribe.

I, for one, am somewhat glad that I am not this smart. My expectations of myself would be just way too high.

I actually like working with people that are smarter than I am.
Can't imagine having to cater to the desires of people who probably have an IQ 30 points lower than yours.

That old saying about eagles and turkeys springs to mind.

If most men want, as surveys suggest, women that are not as smart as they are, how do you handle it?

I know there are other escorts with keen minds out there.
Is there some connection between higher education and escorting??

 

[sorely]

"If you are in a room where you are the smartest person, you're in the wrong room."

Lorne Michaels (? of Sturday Night Live fame)

UofT Convocation 2002