The global energy crisis - Green fairy tales collide with reality

[Frankfooter]

Odd how RCP8.5 is also the basis for all the climate horror propaganda that has been pushed by the media onto the public
Is the UN's IPCC supposed to be a "legit source"?
Not at all

Its not.
Apparently you are not a legit source.

Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario

A sizable portion of recent studies on future climate impacts have focused on a future warming scenario called “RCP8.5”. This high-emissions scenario is frequently referred to as “business as usual”, suggesting that is a likely outcome if society does not make concerted efforts to cut greenhouse...

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[toguy5252]

What should we call the zealots who promote the fairy tale that you can replace fossil fuels with wind and solar power?

The fallacy of your argument is that you think the choice is between 100%of one or the other. The goal of substantially replacing carbon fuels with renewables is realistic and necessary and inevitable. the only issue is timing and the difference in opinion ion is really not about if it will happen but rather how quickly.

 

[danmand]

Odd how RCP8.5 is also the basis for all the climate horror propaganda that has been pushed by the media onto the public
This includes intentionally and deliberately scaring the living shit out of a whole generation of children
Despicable

It does scare the the shit out of any rational thinking person.

 

[oil&gas]

........................................
the only issue is timing and the difference in opinion ion is really not about if it will happen but rather how quickly.

Do you think net-zero emission target by 2050 is an issue of timing?

 

[toguy5252]

Do you think net-zero emission target by 2050 is an issue of timing?

There are various groups advocating for net zero on different timelines. That is one. Yes it is a question of when not if.

 

[danmand]

Do you think net-zero emission target by 2050 is an issue of timing?

It is a matter of which country will reach it.

There is little doubt that most European countries will reach it or be very close.

USA and Canada will probably not because of conservative drag.

It is unclear how developing countries will do. If they get help from the developed world, they can as well build out solar generating plants as coal fired plants.

 

[oil&gas]

There are various groups advocating for net zero on different timelines. That is one. Yes it is a question of when not if.

I think promise like this is more like a question of if than when it will be
delivered.

Biden announces U.S. will halve its emissions by 2030 - National | Globalnews.ca

The Biden administration on Thursday pledged to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

globalnews.ca

 

[oil&gas]

It is a matter of which country will reach it.

There is little doubt that most European countries will reach it or be very close.

Norway will continue pumping oil in North Sea and Arctic sea in the
coming decades. If they ever reach zero emission they will remain an
exporter of it. No sign of Germany being serious with cutting coal usage.

USA and Canada will probably not because of conservative drag.

It is unclear how developing countries will do. If they get help from the developed world, they can as well build out solar generating plants as coal fired plants.

No way fossil fuel production in Canada will go down in coming decades
unless Trudeau has the audacity to nationalise all energy companies
in Western Canada. Oil production will likely drop big time in the U.S. which will
force it to step up coal mining and natural gas extraction.

Trudeau, Wilkinson and some sucker in Germany have been trying to
find the money to finance funding of energy transition in developing
countries at $100 Billion/year. No success so far.

 

[danmand]

Norway will continue pumping oil in North Sea and Arctic sea in the
coming decades. If they ever reach zero emission they will remain an
exporter of it. No sign of Germany being serious with cutting coal usage.

Norway has more than enough electricity from 98% renewable sources, mostly hydro, to export some of it.
Market share of plugin EV cars stand at 89%.
I am sure that Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands will be zero emission by 2050. Germany will be very close.

Pumping oil has nothing to do with being zero emission. European oil can easily be used by petrochemical industries.

No way fossil fuel production in Canada will go down in coming decades
unless Trudeau has the audacity to nationalise all energy companies
in Western Canada. Oil production will likely drop big time in the U.S. which will
force it to step up coal mining and natural gas extraction.

As I posted above, USA and Canada will be held back by conservative attitudes. They still dream of buggies.

Trudeau, Wilkinson and some sucker in Germany have been trying to
find the money to finance funding of energy transition in developing
countries at $100 Billion/year. No success so far.

As far as developing countries, the rational way ahead would be to bet on solar energy generation and wind power, and skip the step of electricity generation by burning hydrocarbons.

Similar to what happened with telephony, where they skipped the step of installing land lines.

 

[JohnLarue]

Norway has more than enough electricity from 98% renewable sources, mostly hydro, to export some of it.
Market share of plugin EV cars stand at 89%.
I am sure that Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands will be zero emission by 2050. Germany will be very close.

Pumping oil has nothing to do with being zero emission. European oil can easily be used by petrochemical industries.

As I posted above, USA and Canada will be held back by conservative attitudes. They still dream of buggies.

As far as developing countries, the rational way ahead would be to bet on solar energy generation and wind power, and skip the step of electricity generation by burning hydrocarbons.

Similar to what happened with telephony, where they skipped the step of installing land lines.

you pretend that it is only a matter of political or ideologic will
The truth of the matter is reliability, scale, supply , demand and resource scarcity will derail your pretend plan.

renewables will not cut , not even close

So time to stop pretending

Are you going to run your petrochemical plants on solar or wind power ?
12% of oil (as you say) consumption ..............so 12 million barrels a day
Most of which needs to be cracked with a lot of energy

 

[Frankfooter]

renewables will not cut , not even close

So wrong.

Renewables met 97% of Scotland's electricity demand in 2020

Scotland narrowly missed a 100% target but renewables output has tripled in the last 10 years.

www.bbc.com

BNamericas - Costa Rica reaches the lowest use of hydroca...

Country will exceed 98% of renewable generation for the seventh consecutive year; As of December 14, accumulated in 2021 it is 99.98%; Water, geothermal ener...

www.bnamericas.com

100% Renewable Power Feasible for U.S.

www.sustaineurope.com

 

[JohnLarue]

The oceans act as a huge buffer for CO2.

We are still waiting for you to explain in detail how this explains the uninterrupted slope of atmospheric C02 increase despite a 7% economic decline in 2020?

 

[Frankfooter]

We are still waiting for you to explain in detail how this explains the uninterrupted slope of atmospheric C02 increase despite a 7% economic decline in 2020?

Wildfires.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the reason is complex. Global emissions fell by 6.4% in 2020, but given the seasonal and natural variability, modest decreases wouldn’t make a big impact on the global tally of carbon emissions. And even as emissions dropped, wildfires burning through trees released carbon dioxide – maybe even at a similar rate as the modest lowering of emissions from the pandemic’s slowing impact on the global economy.

 

[oil&gas]

As far as developing countries, the rational way ahead would be to bet on solar energy generation and wind power, and skip the step of electricity generation by burning hydrocarbons.

Similar to what happened with telephony, where they skipped the step of installing land lines.

You seriously believe people in some of the poorest parts of the
world where cow dung cakes are burnt for the purpose of cooking can
switch to wind and solar. Solar panels are a luxury to me and to a large fraction
of the middle class here. Do you think farmers in Bangladesh where affordability
of diesel fuel for their tractor would make the difference between starvation
and abundance would welcome conversion to electricity? I am sure
they would be happy to own an air-conditioner powered by wind and solar.

 

[Moviefan-2]

The fallacy of your argument is that you think the choice is between 100%of one or the other. The goal of substantially replacing carbon fuels with renewables is realistic and necessary and inevitable.

Wrong, wrong and wrong again.

- I do not believe it's a binary choice.

- The goal of "substantially" replacing fossil fuels with renewables is not realistic.

- It is not necessary nor is it inevitable. And along with being unrealistic, it's not affordable or reliable.

If you seriously want to reduce the use of fossil fuels, countries need to make massive investments in nuclear power.

France is one of the few countries that has made any major gains on that front. Which means for the foreseeable future, fossil fuels will continue to rule.

 

[oil&gas]

If you seriously want to reduce emission simply drive less and don't
fly. It is far too easier to demand action in climate strike than talking
the talk and walking the walk unfortunately.

 

[Frankfooter]

Wrong, wrong and wrong again.

You summarized your posts quite well.
Wrong here.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/the-global-energy-crisis-green-fairy-tales-collide-with-reality.762812/post-7322945

Wrong here.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/the-global-energy-crisis-green-fairy-tales-collide-with-reality.762812/post-7322947

And wrong again here.

https://terb.cc/xenforo/threads/the-global-energy-crisis-green-fairy-tales-collide-with-reality.762812/post-7322951

 

[WULA]

Well we will see what the EU comes up with next week in their energy policy.

It is rather funny to have Germany shutting down nuclear reactors to buy electricity from France who produces electricity primarily from nuclear reactors.

Maybe I was naive when I was a kid. I just worried about bumping my head getting under my desk practicing for a nuclear bomb drop. Now everything, but I mean absolutely everything, just seems fucked up.

 

[danmand]

You seriously believe people in some of the poorest parts of the
world where cow dung cakes are burnt for the purpose of cooking can
switch to wind and solar. Solar panels are a luxury to me and to a large fraction
of the middle class here. Do you think farmers in Bangladesh where affordability
of diesel fuel for their tractor would make the difference between starvation
and abundance would welcome conversion to electricity? I am sure
they would be happy to own an air-conditioner powered by wind and solar.

Let us for arguments sake consider your example of a farmer in remote part of Bangladesh who uses buffalos for power and dung cakes for fuel.

Likely the will replace the buffalos with a Chinese single engine diesel tractor. But I think his electricity needs are more likely to be filled from localized solar energy generation than from a centralized distribution network.

 

[Frankfooter]

Let us for arguments sake consider your example of a farmer in remote part of Bangladesh who uses buffalos for power and dung cakes for fuel.

Likely the will replace the buffalos with a Chinese single engine diesel tractor. But I think his electricity needs are more likely to be filled from localized solar energy generation than from a centralized distribution network.

Agreed, oil and gas argues from first world/fossil fuel perspectives. They seem to expect that developing countries will replicate the big grid model when they could do what they did with phones and instead of a phone lines everywhere went straight to cells. Small scale solar/wind/hydro doesn't need a massive centralized system.