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The CPP is the best performing National Pension Fund in the world

speakercontrols

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Aug 26, 2023
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Good news, the CPP is the best performing National Pension Fund in the world. Thankfully the CPP is shielded from political influence. Get ready for the CPP to be destroyed activists get any influence over it.

Global SWF, a New York-based pension industry specialist recently released its 2024 Annual Report, which measured 10-year returns for sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds. With a 10-year annualized rate of return of 10.9% from fiscal 2013 to 2022, CPP Investments ranked first among national pension funds, and second only to New Zealand Superannuation Fund and national institutional investors.

The Canadian pensions include CPP, AIMCo, OMERS, HOOPP, OTP, BCI, CDPQ, PSP. Huh, >10% over 10 years isn't bad.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
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I don't know what happened to my CPP thread from about a month ago but I talked about how much CPP has increased for the average worker. Since 2018 CPP premiums have risen about 50% which is far in excess of inflation. This decision tells me that the fund wasn't sustainable, especially with the massive number of Canadians set to turn 65 in 2024 and 2025.

Thankfully, I stopped paying into CPP in 2018 I now pay myself a dividend out of my personal corporation every year.
 
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speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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I don't know what happened to my CPP thread from about a month ago but I talked about how much CPP has increased for the average worker. Since 2018 CPP premiums have risen about 50% which is far in excess of inflation. This decision tells me that the fund wasn't sustainable, especially with the massive number of Canadians set to turn 65 in 2024 and 2025.

Thankfully, I stopped paying into CPP in 2018 I now pay myself a dividend out of my personal corporation every year.
Ya, I think in the 1990s it was judged to be 'unsustainable' and they took steps to fix that. I read lots of CPP reports saying they're sustainable for the next 75 years. However, the CPP's evaluation is self-serving and IF they were, why the % increases this year right? I think it's because of the "addition" or "enhanced" CPP that's been a focus lately.

Looking for a 3rd party evaluation, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) is always a good source.

Looking at the PBO analysis, they stated;

In PBO’s November 2020 FSR Update, the estimated fiscal gap for the combined base and additional CPP was 0.1 per cent of GDP (rounded up from 0.054 per cent of GDP). Given PBO’s convention of rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point, the CPP was very close to being assessed as “sustainable” based on the fiscal gap measure.


Under the current contribution rate and benefit structure, we projected that the base CPP asset-to-GDP ratio would decline steadily from 18.0 per cent of GDP in 2019 to 1.6 per cent after 75 years, resulting in a fiscal gap of 0.11 per cent of GDP . This deterioration reflects a larger-than-sustainable imbalance between contributions and expenses.13 Assessing the Sustainability of the Canada Pension Plan 6 To return the base CPP asset-to-GDP ratio to 18.0 per cent of GDP in 2094, we estimated that some combination of higher contributions and lower expenses, amounting to 0.11 per cent of GDP annually, would be required to close the fiscal gap (shown as the dotted line in Figure 3-1).


In AR30, the OCA estimated the minimum contribution rate for the base CPP plan to be 9.72 per cent (for the year 2034 and thereafter), which is somewhat lower than the legislated rate of 9.9 per cent. Thus, based on the statutory evaluation and the OCA projections, the base CPP is sustainable.

In AR30, the OCA estimated the first additional minimum contribution rate to be 1.98 per cent (for the year 2023 and thereafter) and the second additional minimum contribution rate to be 7.92 per cent (for the year 2024 and thereafter). Based on the statutory evaluation and the OCA projections, the additional CPP is sustainable.


So, good news, so far it looks like CPP will be around for grandkids.
 

sprite09

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2020
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cppib lol ..worked there during the GFC...recall the controversy when the higher ups got big bonuses in millions despite the fund losing big time

ultimately, they don't produce much alpha, if at all, because they've now ventured into areas where valuations and risk are harder to measure (eg private equity)..after all, if they were killing it, they wouldn't need to increase premiums lol

at least it creates public sector jobs I guess ? ahaha
 

speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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..after all, if they were killing it, they wouldn't need to increase premiums lol
I had the same thought. I think the Premium Increase is due to a) increasing benefits, not keeping them inline with inflation - "additional CPP", and (b) I think due to a 25 per cent the amount paid out in CPP benefits to widows and widowers. Can't find direct evidence for the last one though.
 

anon1

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Aug 19, 2001
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Tranquility Base, La Luna

silentkisser

Master of Disaster
Jun 10, 2008
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Since its creation the CPPIB has done a great job. They weathered many financial and economic challenges, and consistently show strong returns. They are big enough that their management fees are minuscule, and they have the ability to make investments in things that the average joe cannot, like infrastructure projects, private equity, and alternative lending. As for the recent increase in contributions, that will allow a more generous payout. Keep in mind, the CPP will be only about a third of your salary when you retire, so we all need to save. I think less than 40% of workers have an employer sponsored retirement plan, so it is vital that people put money in an RRSP or TFSA (or other retirement vehicle), because the biggest challenge might be longevity. Who here thinks they'll live to be 100? Because the stats say a bunch of us might.

It should be pointed out that the Maple 8 (AIMCo, BCI, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, CPP Investments, HOOPP, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, OMERS and PSP Investments) do a great job with investments. Now, there has been a lot of talk over the past few months that Ottawa or the provinces could mandate that they invest more domestically. Only the CDPQ has such a mandate, but that is to invest in Quebec.
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
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No wonder that Alberta who contributed just around 15% towards the CPP then wanted to take half the assets.
That is stealing from Peter to pay Paul!!
 

speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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... months that Ottawa or the provinces could mandate that they invest more domestically. Only the CDPQ has such a mandate, but that is to invest in Quebec.
God I hope not. Political interference (domestic, climate change blah blah) in investments would just kill the returns.
 

speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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Yep It's so good the Premiere of Alberta wants to steal %55 of it.
Weird that everyone is ok with Quebec doing shit (CPP & private healthcare come to mind) but as soon as Alberta wants the same thing? It's the end of the world. Interesting double-standards out there.
 

silentkisser

Master of Disaster
Jun 10, 2008
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God I hope not. Political interference (domestic, climate change blah blah) in investments would just kill the returns.
If you are paying attention, you can see that Ottawa seems to be moving towards trying to gently nudge plans to invest more domestically. In the Fall Economic Update, they talked about removing restrictions on how much a pension can own in a business, and there has been a lot of chatter about mandating domestic investments to an extent. Is it the right call? Who knows. I saw an op-ed in the Globe talking about how miners need the capital infusion, especially since we have so many resources that will be needed for the green transition...
 

Harveyspector

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Feb 6, 2023
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God I hope not. Political interference (domestic, climate change blah blah) in investments would just kill the returns.
Political interference would cause returns to suffer. The superior performance in part is because the majority of the equity component is invested outside of Canada. Canadian equities have lagged the US stock market dramatically over the last twenty years.
 

Phatazluvr123

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Dec 26, 2023
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This is because we pay into it for a lifetime and than they give you fuck all a month to live on when you do retire
Trudeau and Freeland are living large on our money
Major POS
 
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speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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If you are paying attention, you can see that Ottawa seems to be moving towards trying to gently nudge plans to invest more domestically. In the Fall Economic Update, they talked about removing restrictions on how much a pension can own in a business, and there has been a lot of chatter about mandating domestic investments to an extent. Is it the right call? Who knows. I saw an op-ed in the Globe talking about how miners need the capital infusion, especially since we have so many resources that will be needed for the green transition...
Political interference in the preference of investment decisions would kill returns. End of story.
 

speakercontrols

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2023
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This is because we pay into it for a lifetime and than they give you fuck all a month to live on when you do retire
Trudeau and Freeland are living large on our money
Major POS
‘The CPP is not meant to be the only retirement plan. SO FAR the assumption is that people have agency and decide to save for retirement. However, given the savings rate decline over the last decades, I suspect people are going to get out of their retirement exactly what they put in.
 
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