Rising seas: 'Florida is about to be wiped off the map'

Occasionally

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I understand the metaphor perfectly, thank you. My point, and I suppose I should make it more clearly, is that like the "boiling frog" myth (that I used to believe btw) there are a great many things that get said over and over again that we accept as true, but that aren't.

I interviewed a woman last week who had just graduated with a Masters from Columbia. During the interview we got to chatting about environmentalism and the actions that a company could take to be more environmentally responsible. She's very bright, well-spoken, and passionate - it was a delightful conversation.

During the talk she kept returning to the topic of "an island of garbage the size of Texas floating in the Pacific ocean". She said that you could walk on it, and that there were videos of the island taken from aircraft.

I'd never heard of an island made of garbage, and was disgusted and concerned at what she had told me, so naturally I searched on it later that day. Turns out it doesn't exist.

https://response.restoration.noaa.g...at-pacific-garbage-patch-science-vs-myth.html

There are zones where garbage tends to collect, plastics break down into micro-particles, and that's an issue. But to say "there's an island of garbage the size of Texas" is at best a 100x misinterpretation of the facts, and at worst a useful lie.

The thing is, this smart young woman had heard the lie stated as fact so often and consistently that she treated it as the truth. In a debate about environment, statements like 'Florida is about to be wiped off the map' don't help solve the problem. They make environmentalists look stupid, and give more ammunition to deniers.

KK
You can tell the whole Texas sized garbage patch is BS because if it was true you have people in boats taking pictures of endless floating garbage for 100s of miles. Yet you never see it. At best, you see some glob of garbage (like a pic someone found in Google images) and tries to extrapolate that small pile of garbage multiplied by 1 million. Total BS.
 

kkelso

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You can tell the whole Texas sized garbage patch is BS because if it was true you have people in boats taking pictures of endless floating garbage for 100s of miles. Yet you never see it. At best, you see some glob of garbage (like a pic someone found in Google images) and tries to extrapolate that small pile of garbage multiplied by 1 million. Total BS.
You're echoing what was going through my mind during the job interview, "why haven't I ever seen this?"

I wish I had thought to challenge her on it at the time and google it right then and there. It would have been a great way to assess her ability to change her position based on facts. Missed opportunity.

KK
 

Frankfooter

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...which is PRECISELY why I pointed out that the sensationalist crap is crap, and that change is occurring on a subjectively gradual timescale. You know, like a frog in a .... oh nevermind!
NASA says the current projections for 2100 vary by 0.66 to 2 metres for ocean level increases.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/projections/empirical-projections

To check out a realistic projection of Florida, check this map and adjust ocean heights to see how much of Florida is flooded.
https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#7/2...s=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=6&unit=feet&pois=hide

Its certainly not going to get wiped off the map, but it'll be substantial.

This article says it'll only take two feet of ocean increase to swamp Mar a Lago.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-climate-change-sea-level-rise-south-florida-mar-a-lago-2017-7
 

K Douglas

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Trying to fight this climate change bogeyman is taking away precious resources that we need to deal with real natural climate threats. We all know that one day the cities of Tokyo, Los Angeles, Manila, Wellington etc. will be severely damaged or destroyed by an earthquake. We know there will be another tsunami that threatens coast lines in Asia. We know that sea levels are rising in many parts of the world. Not at the rates that are being projected by alarmists but high enough to cause coastal flooding. Liberals are the real threat to humanity.
 

Occasionally

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You're echoing what was going through my mind during the job interview, "why haven't I ever seen this?"

I wish I had thought to challenge her on it at the time and google it right then and there. It would have been a great way to assess her ability to change her position based on facts. Missed opportunity.

KK
Reminds me of all the oil articles. If everyone believed 1970s articles talking about running out of oil. You'd think in the year 2018 it would be Mad Max by now, yet everything is fine and according to latest oil discoveries, turns out there's tons more oil recently discovered. And I'm sure oil companies are smart enough to extract it at some point.

Mad Max no more.

There probably hasn't been any articles about running of oil in decades. So much for that.
 

nntsci

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Reminds me of all the oil articles. If everyone believed 1970s articles talking about running out of oil. You'd think in the year 2018 it would be Mad Max by now, yet everything is fine and according to latest oil discoveries, turns out there's tons more oil recently discovered. And I'm sure oil companies are smart enough to extract it at some point.

Mad Max no more.

There probably hasn't been any articles about running of oil in decades. So much for that.
That's a false comparison. Conventional Oil is running out... what they are doing now is fracking the fuck out of the landscape and polluting the water to get oil from rock.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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PornAddict

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NASA says the current projections for 2100 vary by 0.66 to 2 metres for ocean level increases.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/projections/empirical-projections

To check out a realistic projection of Florida, check this map and adjust ocean heights to see how much of Florida is flooded.
https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#7/2...s=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=6&unit=feet&pois=hide

Its certainly not going to get wiped off the map, but it'll be substantial.

This article says it'll only take two feet of ocean increase to swamp Mar a Lago.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-climate-change-sea-level-rise-south-florida-mar-a-lago-2017-7
Al gore predicted by 2015 Manhattan will be underwater! How that prediction coming along???

New York City underwater? Gas over $9 a gallon? A carton of milk costs almost $13? Welcome to June 12, 2015. Or at least that was the wildly-inaccurate version of 2015 predicted by ABC News exactly seven years ago. Appearing on Good Morning America in 2008, Bob Woodruff hyped Earth 2100, a special that pushed apocalyptic predictions of the then-futuristic 2015. The segment included supposedly prophetic videos, such as a teenager declaring, “It’s June 8th, 2015.”

“One carton of milk is $12.99.” (On the actual June 8, 2015, a gallon of milk cost, on average, $3.39.)



FrankY be like chicken little ... Run for your life the sky is falling!!

I willing to bet you $1000 buck that this prediction will fail like all the other prediction!!
FLorida will be under water !! What a fucking joke!!! This libtard & NDP $ climate alariism like you are so full of shit!!!
All you freaking idiot really care about finding ways to tax and get more money from the taxpayer to justify you social spending program.
EXample revenuE TOOLS IS SAME AS TAXES!! Just a marketing tools to rebrands to confused the taxpayer!!

Global warming rebranded to climate changes to confused the guillable people !
 

Frankfooter

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Al gore predicted
We were talking about projections from scientists, not false claims about what politicians say.
And if those projections by say, Hansen, were so far off it should be really, really easy for you to find some denier who made more accurate projections 30 years ago.
So go ahead, show us the best denier projection you can find.
 

K Douglas

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We were talking about projections from scientists, not false claims about what politicians say.
And if those projections by say, Hansen, were so far off it should be really, really easy for you to find some denier who made more accurate projections 30 years ago.
So go ahead, show us the best denier projection you can find.
The so called deniers are smart enough to not make predictions about something they have little to no control over.
 

Frankfooter

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The so called deniers are smart enough to not make predictions about something they have little to no control over.
In other words, they know they can't back up their claims.
Hansen could and did, as other scientists do through the IPCC.

Big difference.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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The so called deniers are smart enough to not make predictions about something they have little to no control over
BINGO!!!!

Frankie hiding under his bed for the big, bad global warming boogieman

 

hedo rick

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There were also predictions that within 10 years, there will be no snow on Mt.Kilimanjaro. That was more than a decade ago. Spoiler alert: there's still snow.
 

Frankfooter

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There were also predictions that within 10 years, there will be no snow on Mt.Kilimanjaro. That was more than a decade ago. Spoiler alert: there's still snow.
Sure, but nobody takes moviefan's predictions seriously.
 

oldjones

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There were also predictions that within 10 years, there will be no snow on Mt.Kilimanjaro. That was more than a decade ago. Spoiler alert: there's still snow.
Predicting is always a fudge, particularly back when no one had ever accurately measured the thickness or volume of that ice-field.

But A National Geographic team used ground-penetrating radar to do that a couple of years ago, here are some actual measurements. "Using their depth measurements and the known extent of the ice, the team calculated the total ice volume of the Northern Ice Field to be roughly 12 million cubic meters. That’s enough ice to fill all of Manhattan’s Central Park to a depth of 4 meters." "On average, the ice field had fallen in height [that had been measured] by 6 meters over 15 years. Other glaciers at lower elevations on Kilimanjaro have decreased in height even more substantially" Since "The team found that the ice ranged in thickness from roughly 6 to 54 meters" it's obvious that more parts of it will disappear in about 15 years if the present melt-rate is sustained, just as other parts have already. And if it was all one uniform 4M thickness, there's only a few city blocks worth of it left, and at 2M melt every 5 years, even that'd be long gone before today's kids could see it as adults.
 

PornAddict

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Predicting is always a fudge, particularly back when no one had ever accurately measured the thickness or volume of that ice-field.

But A National Geographic team used ground-penetrating radar to do that a couple of years ago, here are some actual measurements. "Using their depth measurements and the known extent of the ice, the team calculated the total ice volume of the Northern Ice Field to be roughly 12 million cubic meters. That’s enough ice to fill all of Manhattan’s Central Park to a depth of 4 meters." "On average, the ice field had fallen in height [that had been measured] by 6 meters over 15 years. Other glaciers at lower elevations on Kilimanjaro have decreased in height even more substantially" Since "The team found that the ice ranged in thickness from roughly 6 to 54 meters" it's obvious that more parts of it will disappear in about 15 years if the present melt-rate is sustained, just as other parts have already. And if it was all one uniform 4M thickness, there's only a few city blocks worth of it left, and at 2M melt every 5 years, even that'd be long gone before today's kids could see it as adults.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11...il-jones-and-lonnie-thompson-dont-believe-it/

Al Gore's global warming claims on Kilimanjaro glacier – finally dead and buried in the Climategate 2.0 emails – even Phil Jones and Lonnie Thompson don't believe it

Al Gore said in his AIT bag of BS that Mount Kilimanjaro was losing its snow/ice cover due to global warming. Here’s the Transcript of “An Inconvenient Truth”:

Effects of Global Warming

And now we’re beginning to see the impact in the real world. This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago, and more recently. And a friend of mine just came back from Kilimanjaro with a picture he took a couple of months ago. Another friend of mine Lonnie Thompson studies glaciers. Here’s Lonnie with a sliver of a once mighty glacier. Within the decade there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.

I’ve said this many times, Kilimanjaro’s loss of ice cover has to do with sublimation, not warming. The picture of Thompson next to the sliver of ice proves it. Note there’s no meltwater near him. That sliver is a symptom of sublimation – ice evaporating directly into the air, just like ice cubes shrink when left in the freezer too long.

Almost a year ago I wrote this:

OSU’s Dr. Lonnie Thompson pushes gloom and doom, still thinks the snows of Kilimanjaro are melting due to global warming

This is an OSU press release, timed to appear in Eurekalert for Cancun’s COP16 on December 8th, and reposted here verbatim, including the all caps headline. Even though the “melting on Kilimanjaro due to global warming” has been fully debunked by a recent peer reviewed paper (see Kilimanjaro’s snow – it’s about land use change, tree cutting) Dr. Thompson continues to push this false information.

For example, this is a photo (at left) of Dr. Thompson standing next to an ice spire on Kilimanjaro.


Notice any meltwater pools nearby? You won’t, because they aren’t there. Read this quote from this entry to understand why:

The ice cap on Kilimanjaro consists of ice on the 5,700-meter-high flat summit, some with vertical edges, and several slope glaciers, mostly at altitudes where temperatures stay well below freezing and the major source of energy is solar radiation. Considerable infrared radiation is emitted from the glacier surface into the surrounding air, and the glaciers lose the most mass through sublimation-the direct conversion of ice to water vapor. Observers have seen only a trickle of meltwater.

Dr. Thompson seems not to want to understand the process of sublimation on Kilimanjaro


And now today, here’s indication in the Climategate 2.0 emails that I was right.


5315.txt

date: Sat Sep 18 08:48:09 2004

from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.xx.xx>

subject: Re: kilimanjaro

to: “Jenkins, Geoff” <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.xx.xx>

Geoff,

The data that are used for the grid box should be within the grid box. They will be low

elevation sites though, and this may be part of the reason. It might be worth seeing if

there is anything in the U/A data – but I reckon there won’t be much in that region.

I’ve heard Lonnie Thompson talk about the Kilimanjaro core and he got some local temperatures – that we don’t have access to, and there was little warming in them. The same situation applies for Quelccaya in Peru and also some of his Tibet sites. Lonnie thinks they are disappearing because of sublimation, but he can’t pin anything down. They are going though.

Lonnie’s email is “Lonnie G. Thompson” <thompson.3@osu.xxx.xxx>

You could try emailing Ellen as well both might be in the field.

Ellen Mosley-Thompson <thompson.4@osu.xxx.xxx>

I’m off much of the next 6 weeks at meetings.

I hear you’re retiring soon – hope all goes well ! I’m sure you’ll still be in the field somewhere.

Cheers

Phil

At 10:32 16/09/2004, you wrote:

phil

<<kilimanjaro.doc>>

we have been concerned that people often use the melting glacier on kilimanjaro as an

example of impacts of man-made warming. you may have seen some stories countering this on the sceptics websites.

I got philip brohan to look at temps there (see attached) and there isnt any convincing consistent recent warming in the station data. but your gridded CRUtem2V does show a recent warming. presumably that is because (as philip suggests) the gridded stuff has influences from quite a large radius, and hence may reflect warming at stations a long way from kilimanjaro?

would you agree that there is no convincing evidence for kilimanjaro glacier melt being due to recent warming (let alone man-made warming)?

be grateful for your help

cheers

geoff

Dr Geoff Jenkins

Head, Climate Prediction Programme

Hadley Centre

Met Office

FitzRoy Road, EXETER, EX1 3PB, UK

tel: +44 (0) 1392 xxxxxx

mobile: 0787 966 1136

[1]www.hadleycentre.xxxx.xx

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090

School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784

University of East Anglia

Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk

NR4 7TJ

UK

—————————————————————————-
 

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https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/07/kilimanjaro-glaciers-just-wont-die-nowhere-near-extinction/

Kilimanjaro glaciers just won't die – 'nowhere near extinction'
Anthony Watts / April 7, 2014
From the we told you so, time and time again department comes this story about Gore’s buddy, Dr. Lonnie Thompson and his Kilimanjaro glacier that just won’t die like they want it to, even though they don’t believe their own hype.

From ETN Global Travel Industry News:

Mount Kilimanjaro Glaciers nowhere near extinction

The legendary glaciers, one of key tourists ecstasy, on Tanzania’s majestic Kilimanjaro mountain, will not melt anytime soon after all, as it was earlier predicted.

America’s renowned climatologist, professor Lonnie Thompson in 2002 projected that the snow on the summit of Africa’s highest mountain would completely disappear between 2015 and 2020, thanks to global warming.

But 12 years down the lane now, local ecologists who have been monitoring the trend say the ice, in fact, remains steady and it is nowhere near extinction.


“There are ongoing several studies, but preliminary findings show that the ice is nowhere near melting,” said Mount Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA)’s Ecologist, Imani Kikoti.

Mr Kikoti hints that sustainable rainfalls supply on Mount Kilimanjaro in recent years could be a factor behind the snow resilient.

“Much as we agree that the snow has declined over centuries, but we are comfortable that its total melt will not happen in the near future,” he stressed.

Sometimes in 2006, KINAPA installed three state-of-the-art automatic weather stations on mountain key areas of Shira 2, Mweka and Kibo huts to collect accurate data on weather trends.

Though scientifically, it takes up to 30 years to conclude on whether rainfalls are on increase or otherwise, but Mr Kikoti says the data are encouraging.

more here: http://www.eturbonews.com/44420/mount-kilimanjaro-glaciers-nowhere-near-extinction

============================================================

As we’ve said before, it’s about sublimation and lack of water vapor in the atmosphere, not temperature.

The issue is really quite simple.

Much of the sublimation may be due to the forests around the base of Kilimanjaro being cleared for firewood and agricultural use by the locals. Just imagine if they had electricity- they’d no longer need firewood and the trees would return, along with the evapotranspiration that keeps the up-slope winds onto the mountain laden with water vapor.

For example, this is a photo (at left) of Dr. Thompson standing next to an ice spire on Kilimanjaro. Notice any meltwater pools nearby?

You won’t, because they aren’t there. Read this quote from this entry to understand why:



The ice cap on Kilimanjaro consists of ice on the 5,700-meter-high flat summit, some with vertical edges, and several slope glaciers, mostly at altitudes where temperatures stay well below freezing and the major source of energy is solar radiation. Considerable infrared radiation is emitted from the glacier surface into the surrounding air, and the glaciers lose the most mass through sublimation-the direct conversion of ice to water vapor. Observers have seen only a trickle of meltwater.

Dr. Thompson seems not to want to understand the process of sublimation on Kilimanjaro

Of course, it is easy to see why Dr. Thompson wants to keep claiming that the glaciers on Kilimanjaro will disappear, its his business:


 

oldjones

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Sublimation or melting, the ice-cap is still disappearing and the Earth is still warming.
---------
PS: Since it seems you couldn't manage to distinguish the words of your source, from All Gore's words that he quotes, you'd be far better off sending us off to the original, and not misquoting him (at great wasted page-length). Your version reads like he doesn't know what he thinks. At least when he presents his own message, he knows it's important enough to present accurately and coherently. It's too bad you didn't think so.

And the glaciers are still disappearing.
 

Frankfooter

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wattsupwiththat is the single worst denier site, if you're reading and believing that garbage you're confirmed to be pretty hopeless.
That means you believe in all kinds of weird conspiracy theories, possible aliens and really have no clue over what to believe.

By the way, do you know moviefan, I think you two would really get along.
 

PornAddict

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wattsupwiththat is the single worst denier site, if you're reading and believing that garbage you're confirmed to be pretty hopeless.
That means you believe in all kinds of weird conspiracy theories, possible aliens and really have no clue over what to believe.

By the way, do you know moviefan, I think you two would really get along.
Don't believe in alien!!
Don't believe Weird conspiracy theories!!! Don't believe 9/11 conspiracy .
Don't believe in Elvis is alive or Don't believe JFK conspiracy!!
Only believes that man made climate change ( aka global warming) has got the the science wrong!!
Only believe that Ontario cap & trade is a tax grab by liberal goverment!
Science is run on Facts and proof not on consensus . Noted that a proof is a proof
A proof is a proof. What kind of a proof? It's a proof. A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven.

I believe that hubris in majority of climate scientists like Mann ( hockey stick graph).Examples are poor science, biased scientific data to actual blatant data cherry-picking and data manipulation. These issues are known to those who have researched the subject but apparently not too well known to the public at large or even to most of the IPCC delegates.

Among other the inherent problems associated with computer models that have been used as “scientific data”, the important role of clouds and water vapor in negating the importance of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the importance of satellite data that do not show warming of the troposphere, just to name a few of the myriad of facts that are detailed. climate system are too complex and too chaotic and climatogist got the science wrong .


And man made climate change or so call global warming is not proven!!
Note is called a global warming theory until that is 100.00% proven then it is only a theory until is proven otherwise is only a theory. And it is a unproven theory and mostly a foolish theory.
HA HA ... Trump also killed Man made climate change.
Ha ha ...Doug Ford killed Cap & Trade !!
Alberta Jason Kenndy will kill Carbon tax or Cap & Trade next when he get elected next year !,
TRudeau will be next too!! He going to lose to the Supreme Court of Canada when comes to Cap & Trade or Carbon Tax. And he will lose on the next fed election!

Like usual your fool of shit!!
As proven by John Lauren on previous debate with you on man climate changes / global warming!!
Also proven by movietime that you lost your bet to movietime.
 
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