Recession coming soon?

WoodPeckr

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With the USD in 'freefall' this shouldn't be happening!
The U.S. Manufacturing sector should be 'surging' to use a Dubya term......
Wonder what happened .....bot?
:rolleyes:

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Contracts

By VINNEE TONG, AP
Posted: 2008-01-02 12:08:14

NEW YORK (AP) - The U.S. manufacturing economy unexpectedly contracted in December, ending a streak of 10 consecutive months of growth and sinking to its lowest point in almost five years, a private research group said Wednesday. The decline suggests that the overall economy may be weakening faster than some economists predicted.

The figures are closely watched because a slowdown in factory production can translate to job cuts, which in turn reduces consumer spending - a major component of the economy.

The Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based private research group, said its manufacturing index registered 47.7 last month, down 3.1 percentage points from the 50.8 recorded in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that level indicates contraction.

The December results were weaker than the 50.9 expected by analysts polled by Thomson/IFR Markets. Last month was the first that manufacturing has failed to grow since January 2007, when the index was 49.3. It has been four years and eight months since the index was lower than in December; it hit 46.4 in April 2003.

The results sent stocks falling in morning trading as investors worried that the slowdown in manufacturing would spread to the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 160 points by midday.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction spending edged up slightly in November as the continued housing slump was offset by record spending on government and business projects. Spending was up 0.1 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.165 trillion. Spending had fallen by 0.4 percent in October.

Many economists believe the U.S. economy grew at an anemic rate of about 1.5 percent in the final quarter of the year and that it could slow to 0.5 percent or less in this first three months this year. A growing number expect a recession because of turmoil in the housing market and continuing tight credit conditions.

The chairman of ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, Norbert Ore, said he expected a couple months of either contraction or very slow growth before a rebound. He said supply executives reported that slower demand was more of a problem than excess inventory. The survey found weakness in new orders and production, which reversed in December after reporting growth in November.

"It's a little too soon to say whether this is a trend of continued contraction or whether it's a soft patch, then things pick up after that," Ore said.

Nomura chief economist David Resler said December results can sometimes be skewed by seasonal variation in orders, so January will be very closely watched to see whether the sector will keep falling.

"I thine.

Resler said the weakness in new orders could be a sign of further slowing going forward.

"Up until now, we've been able to console ourselves with the fact that the manufacturing sector has withstood the effects of the downdraft in housing," Resler said. "Now we can't be so confident."
 

S.C. Joe

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Michigan and states around have been in a recession now for over a year. Guess the well to do states are hurting too now--good, welcome to the club.
 

y2kmark

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Oil just hit $100/bl...

Could have something to do with it.:eek:
 

onthebottom

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So predict now boys, a recession in the US economy in 08?

OTB
 

danmand

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S.C. Joe

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Push us over, just when is a recession ? Here around Michigan, Ohio theres homes for sale everywhere with falling prices and few buyers. New cars sales are down. No good jobs to be had, people using CC to buy a few dollars worth of goods. Business chains going under, like all of our Framer Jack grocery's stores in the area--they closed 35 stores 6 months ago and not even half of the buildings have been sold.

If we are not in a recession yet then I hate to see how its going to be
 

cypherpunk

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I'm not one to make predictions about any national economy, but it's probably a good idea to invest abroad until the dollar looks to be rebounding. This has been the case for some time, of course.
 

Never Compromised

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Probably not a full blown election in the US until December 08. Can't have bad numbers in an election year. Watch the fed print way too much fiat currency.

Inflation will creep up towards the end of the year, consumer spending will drop.

Unemployment will continue to rise as Wal-Mart etc continue to outsource.

Larger gap between the have and the have nots.

China will continue to hold enough US paper to be in a position to really gut the US dollar.

More countries will reduce the amount of USD, and possibly pick Euro's for exchange.

The Petro Dollar will sink like a rock covered with goo, and watch more OPEC members taking Euros for payment.
 

Big Sleazy

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I work with the manufacturing industry here in Ontario and have for twenty years. I'm not an Economist but this was the slowest 4th quarter I've ever experienced. And if you want to call it a recession, we've been in the midst of it since August 2007.

BS
 

onthebottom

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So, Compromised is the only one with the stones to go on record with a no to my question.....

You guys are wimps.

OTB
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
Then we're in the same pew as the economists.

I can live with that.

What's your prediction, oh economic guru?

You're Nixonian in your failure to state your own case.
I've said I think the economy will slow but will not be in recession in 2008.... but I could be wrong.

OTB
 

assoholic

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..within 5-10 years the US economy will go through a "restructuring", not a recession, recessions's are followed by corrections. There will be no correction.
We cannot continue to lose the kinds of jobs we are losing overseas, and not have it effect the economy. Judging the US economy by how the stock market is doing is ridiculous, 1 % owns 50 % of the stocks.
In the real world there is a dramatic shift happening.
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
Is your crystal ball as foggy as mine, eh? :rolleyes:
Who knows, I actually think we're dancing on the chalk line as we're due for a slow down but if the mortgage issue finds a bottom the economy will roar back.... I just find humor in all the cowards on here trash talking the US economy but unwilling to go on record.....

OTB
 

onthebottom

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assoholic said:
..within 5-10 years the US economy will go through a "restructuring", not a recession, recessions's are followed by corrections. There will be no correction.
We cannot continue to lose the kinds of jobs we are losing overseas, and not have it effect the economy. Judging the US economy by how the stock market is doing is ridiculous, 1 % owns 50 % of the stocks.
In the real world there is a dramatic shift happening.
I think the US economy is constantly going through a restructuring, in fact, the frequency and flexibility with which we do this is one of our largest competitive advantages.

OTB
 

WoodPeckr

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What Dubya has put our economy is not a "restructuring."
It's more like a "destructuring"!........:eek:
 

WoodPeckr

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onthebottom said:
I think the US economy is constantly going through a restructuring, in fact, the frequency and flexibility with which we do this is one of our largest competitive advantages.

OTB
Wall street had a funny view of that today, eh bot!....:rolleyes:

DJIA 12800.18 -256.54
NASDAQ 2504.65 -98.03
S&P 500 1411.63 -35.53
 

Never Compromised

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bbking said:
If they throw everything in -- tax cuts, auctions and Fed cuts maybe we salvage this year.
bk

Tax cuts? Not going to help, as it will simply drive inflation up, and the cuts will give more to the people that need it the least. And anyone want to bet that money would end up offshore?

Ontario & Quebec will be in recession by summer, but Alberta will continue to boom.

Ottawa has to get its head out of its ass and stop looking to the US for our economic salvation. We need to start looking at Europe and Asia for more markets, and we need to start spending much more $$ on education.
 

onthebottom

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That's one for and one against and a bunch who knows...... The numbers will tell the tail.

OTB
 

S.C. Joe

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A quote from Reuters on the market big sell off today...

"The payroll numbers are showing that we don't have the jobs, and if you don't have job income you don't have consumers doing any spending," said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. of Springfield, New Jersey. "I don't think there's much question we're in a recession now."
 
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