Putin/Comey win
- Thread starter fuji
- Start date
One of the pundants last night said that Trumps share of blue collar workers was larger than Reagan's - that should be setting alarm bells off at the DNC.
Hillary was hurt by
Obama care cost increases
Reopening the FBI investigation reminded people how many FBI investigations are open on her.
Hillary began was giving many speeches in the final weeks and she sometimes sounded shrill, nasty and desperate.
Wikileaks showing how the DNC screwed over Bernie and his supporters.
Trump was looking confident in the final 2 weeks, and he had a positive closing argument.
Was in the news that voter turnout was around 50%.
Obama care cost increases
Reopening the FBI investigation reminded people how many FBI investigations are open on her.
Hillary began was giving many speeches in the final weeks and she sometimes sounded shrill, nasty and desperate.
Wikileaks showing how the DNC screwed over Bernie and his supporters.
Trump was looking confident in the final 2 weeks, and he had a positive closing argument.
Was in the news that voter turnout was around 50%.
Are some (many, most?) of these Black women single parents on entitlements or partial entitlements?
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=1672
So....you think Trump is NOT an elite? The jerk was born with a golden spoon in his mouth and now has golden toilettes in his Manhatten condo....LOL
But he's also kind of stupid, sexist and racist.
That makes him more of one of them, even with the gold toilets.
More bad news Frankie. Trump wrote his own speech and did it while doing 5 rallies in a day. Learn more about the man through Chairman Reince Priebus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcsT5HA8sZc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcsT5HA8sZc
Yes it was but the old system of health care was a year away from collapse. Trump promised to repeal The Affordable Health Care Act. Yes rates went up but what's the alternative? If Trump gets it wrong it will cost billions and most people wont have coverage.
Whatever impact long-term campaign issues like Obamacare had, they were baked into the vote by the time Comey torpedoed Clinton's campaign.
I've been looking through the election results -- in a lot of states Trump did no better than Romney did in states that Romney lost. For example, Trump didn't do any better than Romney in Wisconsin--he got about the same number of votes. Yet Obama won WI and Clinton lost--the difference was a lot of Democrats stayed home. Democrats who were likely demoralized by the FBI director harping on the email thing--who just a week previously were likely to vote.
We will never really know who would have won the election if Comey had obeyed the law and stayed out of the election, it's a counter-factual. You can argue that Obamacare made a bigger difference, I can point out how significantly the polls moved after Comey's intervention in the election. Point is that he had a significant impact.
Imagine what the outcome would be had:
a) Russia not intervened in the election to hack and release Clinton's emails, and
b) Comey had not intervened in the election to drum beat on the email thing
I think only a fool would think it wouldn't have mattered.
Like I said on the other thread -- it's not a real big deal to me, I'm employable globally. If Trump totally fucks the US, I can leave and get a job in Canada, Europe, or Asia. But I feel sorry for the uneducated white men who voted Trump and are going to get hammered by the damage he does to the economy. As with Brexit, they themselves will bear the brunt of the pain Trump causes. Not people like me.
FiveThirtyEight was the only analysis organization that was writing about how Trump had a real shot at winning, and they took a lot of flak for it. On the even of the election they were predicting a very narrow Clinton win, but pointing out that the gap between Clinton and Trump was less than a normal error in polling. As in, the difference between them was less than the average amount by which polls have been wrong in other elections. And that turned out to be the case.
On the flip side, Comey's intervention in the last week of the election really occurred too late for ANY poll to fully measure the impact of that. So the polls were likely pretty accurate 1 week before the election. Then Comey fired his torpedoes, and there really wasn't enough time after that and the subsequent announcements for polls to catch up with the news before the election happened.
Fuji. You are missing one other factor in why democrats stayed home.
They didn't like and couldn't bring themselves to vote for her. Because she was that flawed.
You keep on trying to put the blame on outside forces. But in the end she was flawed enough that people believed her corruption was true.
Blame the DNC for a coronation. For being complacent. Blame Clinton for underestimating Trump. For relying too much on analytics. For seeing what they wanted to see. For thinking their much talked about ground game was better then it was.
The Democrats need to have their own reckoning. To decide if they truly want to be the voice of progressives, or just another voice of the establishment.
That's where the fight should be.
They didn't like and couldn't bring themselves to vote for her. Because she was that flawed.
You keep on trying to put the blame on outside forces. But in the end she was flawed enough that people believed her corruption was true.
Blame the DNC for a coronation. For being complacent. Blame Clinton for underestimating Trump. For relying too much on analytics. For seeing what they wanted to see. For thinking their much talked about ground game was better then it was.
The Democrats need to have their own reckoning. To decide if they truly want to be the voice of progressives, or just another voice of the establishment.
That's where the fight should be.
They didn't think so until Comey intervened in the election. That's a fact. That's why even Small, OTB, slurp, ItalianGuy, etc, predicted a Clinton win: she was winning. Right up until the last week when Comey's shenanigans moved polls two or three points against her.
Trump is even more deeply flawed. In a race between two flawed candidates stuff like what Comey did changes the outcome of the election.
The polls were wrong. You are making the assumption the polls were correct. All of the pundits are now questioning the methodology. That they were wrong.
Like I said. Too much reliance on them. Part of what hurt them. Somehow Trump saw Michigan, Penn state and Wisconsin as viable. She didn't.
Give Conway her due. She turned around the campaign. It is possible Clinton was out campaigned.
State by state they were off by a lot more then that. And that's what counts. They didn't go to Wisconsin Did they? Nope. That's what beat her. Penn state, Florida. Remember when you said Texas was in play?
2 weeks out and she was talking about down ballot wasn't see. That they would take the Senate, improve the house.
She got fat and lazy. And yes the margins were small. They always are in swing states.
But Trump CHANGED what the Swing states are.
You need to say the words. Trump won fair and square. Once you and everyone else who wants him gone does then you can actually consider how to. Because obvious the plan didn't work this time did it?
