Pulling the goalie

[maurice93]

I think Patrick Roy was the one to really kick start pulling the goalie earlier in the game when he became coach of the avalanche. Stated that it made sense analytically to do it around the 2:30 or 3:00 minute mark and most coaches have extended what they did since then... although not all to that extreme.

 

[maurice93]

This begs another question...If you have a good (1:30 or longer) 5 on 3 Power play....why not pull goalie and go 6 on 3?

I don’t think it’s a very good strategy. As it’s middle of the game you must think about net goals from the tactic. It’s not like pulling the goalie at the end of a game which is not a “net goal” tactic.

Pulling the goalie at the end of game makes sense because all you really care about is scoring a goal yourself. Taking the goalie out for an extra minute is going to hurt a team “net” goals. But you don’t care about that as it’s all about increasing your odds of scoring — so be it if you allow more goals.

If you pull the goalie In the middle of a game giving up a goal really matters at that point .

Just some quick assumptions off the top of my head that some may disagree with. But I suspect on longer 5 on 3s team score at over 40%. Six on 3 might raise it 10% or 15%. But your risk of giving up a goal just went up by more then that 10% or 15%. So it’s a losing a strategy

 

[kherg007]

I don’t think it’s a very good strategy. As it’s middle of the game you must think about net goals from the tactic. It’s not like pulling the goalie at the end of a game which is not a “net goal” tactic.

Pulling the goalie at the end of game makes sense because all you really care about is scoring a goal yourself. Taking the goalie out for an extra minute is going to hurt a team “net” goals. But you don’t care about that as it’s all about increasing your odds of scoring — so be it if you allow more goals.

If you pull the goalie In the middle of a game giving up a goal really matters at that point .

Just some quick assumptions off the top of my head that some may disagree with. But I suspect on longer 5 on 3s team score at over 40%. Six on 3 might raise it 10% or 15%. But your risk of giving up a goal just went up by more then that 10% or 15%. So it’s a losing a strategy

Thanks I was hoping there was some analytics on that.

 

[glamphotographer]

Gretzky has a record of 56 empty-net goals, in an era of high scoring, smaller goalies, and smaller equipment but coaches waited until 1 minute before the end of the game to pull the goalie if they needed 1 goal. 3 goal lead very rare did they pull the goalie.

 

[barnacler]

What got me thinking about this is I remember reading somewhere that there was a high-school (I think) football coach in the US that always went for it on 4th down, every game, all season, they had a fantastic record.

I think there are some statistical anomalies in sports/games that are being underutilized. For instance, the guy who won so much money on Je0pordy obviously had a really good grasp of his likelihood of getting a question right, and so optimized/maximized his return by betting aggressively.

Also, statistically I believe the best aiming point in a shootout in soccer is to aim straight at the goalie. It probably plays to the risk of a goalie looking silly if they just stand there in the middle and don't even try to dive/guess one side or the other, so they do that, leaving the center shot as the most likely to score.

Interesting stuff for me.

 

[Indiana]

Ron Tugnutt

 

[Male4Strapon]

What got me thinking about this is I remember reading somewhere that there was a high-school (I think) football coach in the US that always went for it on 4th down, every game, all season, they had a fantastic record.

I think there are some statistical anomalies in sports/games that are being underutilized. For instance, the guy who won so much money on Je0pordy obviously had a really good grasp of his likelihood of getting a question right, and so optimized/maximized his return by betting aggressively.

Also, statistically I believe the best aiming point in a shootout in soccer is to aim straight at the goalie. It probably plays to the risk of a goalie looking silly if they just stand there in the middle and don't even try to dive/guess one side or the other, so they do that, leaving the center shot as the most likely to score.

Interesting stuff for me.

It is very interesting but I think about Belichick going for it on 4th down against the Colts in the Patriots side of the field. It failed and he was ripped for it. But if it had worked then he would have been praised. Same for Seattle throwing instead of handing the ball to Lynch. It failed and the play caller is an idiot but if it worked, then he would have praised for zigging when everyone else would zag.

I think MLB and NBA have embraced analytics most of the sports with 3-point shooting and with baseball teams fielding players based on pull hitters. If you awoke from a 10-20 year coma you wouldn't recognize the games now.

 

[shack]

If you awoke from a 10-20 year coma you wouldn't recognize the games now.

Maybe not, but I would have missed a good chunk of the pandemic.

 

[Male4Strapon]

Maybe not, but I would have missed a good chunk of the pandemic.

And you would never believe who the last US president was.

 

[Fun For All]

What got me thinking about this is I remember reading somewhere that there was a high-school (I think) football coach in the US that always went for it on 4th down, every game, all season, they had a fantastic record.

I think there are some statistical anomalies in sports/games that are being underutilized. For instance, the guy who won so much money on Je0pordy obviously had a really good grasp of his likelihood of getting a question right, and so optimized/maximized his return by betting aggressively.

Also, statistically I believe the best aiming point in a shootout in soccer is to aim straight at the goalie. It probably plays to the risk of a goalie looking silly if they just stand there in the middle and don't even try to dive/guess one side or the other, so they do that, leaving the center shot as the most likely to score.

Interesting stuff for me.

I’m not sure if I like the “go for it” on 4th down every time strategy... you must not have faith in your punter...but I’d like to see more teams doing it.

 

[shack]

I’m not sure if I like the “go for it” on 4th down every time strategy... you must not have faith in your punter...but I’d like to see more teams doing it.

You wouldn't need a punter except for after a safety.

 

[gcostanza]

What got me thinking about this is I remember reading somewhere that there was a high-school (I think) football coach in the US that always went for it on 4th down, every game, all season, they had a fantastic record.

Newly hired....

Presbyterian hiring anti-punting HS coach Kelley

Presbyterian College is set to hire successful and unconventional high school coach Kevin Kelley as the program's new head coach, a school official tells ESPN.

www.espn.com