Pulling the goalie

[barnacler]

I am curious about the statistical effectiveness of pulling the goalie under various circumstances.

What I would specifically like to know is what is the record of number of empty net goals scored where the team pulling the goalie still comes back to tie or win.

And, similarly, what the largest lead has been (i.e. 3 goals) where pulling the goalie worked, and enough goals were scored by the goalie-pulling team to come back and win or at least tie/sned it into overtime.

 

[kherg007]

This is a great question I'm sure some analytic type must have examined this. As a younger bloke I got exposed to ice hockey in the 70s and rarely did a goalie get pulled until the final minute. Now you see final 2 mins or so. Curious...

 

[shack]

I am curious about the statistical effectiveness of pulling the goalie under various circumstances.

I don't have stats, but the concept is that the team pulling the goalie has virtually nothing to lose. Getting scored on will not change the ourcome for them. As such there is zero risk. Whatever the odds of scoring are it still makes statistical sense to go for it.

What I would specifically like to know is what is the record of number of empty net goals scored where the team pulling the goalie still comes back to tie or win.

I don't know the exact number but I'd be willing to bet that it was a game in the 70's or 80's involving the Rangers on the last game of the season. They were tied in points with someone else for the last playoff spot and at that time the tiebreaker was goals scored for the season. I recall that the Rangers started pulling their goalie with at least 10 minutes left to go in the 3rd, maybe even on a penalty kill. The other team scored a bunch but the Rangers didn't care because goals against was not a factor. Just goals for. It was a mockery and heavily criticized.

Pretty sure the rule was changed for the following season. D'uh.

 

[Samranchoi]

How many turned off the game last year when the Leafs were down 3-0 to Columbus in game 6. Pulled their goalie with 4 minutes left and scored. And then another and one more with 22 seconds left. And then the game winner in OT. While scoring into an empty net most likely has a higher probability than the team scoring when their net is empty, the excitement of scoring while your net is empty seems to garner a much more enthusiastic reaction.

The odds of Toronto winning last years game 6 was improbable if they kept playing 5 on 5. Sometimes, no matter the odds, teams look for the best result and if it doesn’t work work out, at least they did what they could to score a goal

 

[Male4Strapon]

Your post reminded me of this article I read years ago though it may not answer your exact questions.
I read another too with the hypothetical of playing the entire game with the extra attacker and no goalie and was surprised that statistically it wasn't as risky as I would have expected but I don't remember where I read it.

NHL Coaches Are Pulling Goalies Earlier Than Ever

During the 2014 NHL playoffs, Patrick Roy did something unusual for a guy who holds the postseason record for wins by a goalkeeper: As the coach of the Colorado…

fivethirtyeight.com

" Detroit Red Wings fan and Stanford Ph.D. Donald Morrison created a model showing that teams had the best chance to win if they pulled their goalie with about two and a half minutes remaining when down one goal. “If you pull the goalie with two and a half minutes to go, you have a 19 to 20 percent chance of tying the game,” Morrison said when we called him last month. If a coach waits until the minute mark, the chances drop to 17 percent. "

 

[kherg007]

This begs another question...If you have a good (1:30 or longer) 5 on 3 Power play....why not pull goalie and go 6 on 3?

 

[JohnHenry]

This thread would have a whole different connotation if it were in the lounge.

 

[Fun For All]

I don't have stats, but the concept is that the team pulling the goalie has virtually nothing to lose. Getting scored on will not change the ourcome for them. As such there is zero risk. Whatever the odds of scoring are it still makes statistical sense to go for it.

I don't know the exact number but I'd be willing to bet that it was a game in the 70's or 80's involving the Rangers on the last game of the season. They were tied in points with someone else for the last playoff spot and at that time the tiebreaker was goals scored for the season. I recall that the Rangers started pulling their goalie with at least 10 minutes left to go in the 3rd, maybe even on a penalty kill. The other team scored a bunch but the Rangers didn't care because goals against was not a factor. Just goals for. It was a mockery and heavily criticized.

Pretty sure the rule was changed for the following season. D'uh.

Actually it was 1970, the Montreal Canadiens had to score 5 goals to make the playoffs and pulled their goalie halfway through the third period down 5-2 and went on to lose 10-2...one of the great moments in NHL history.

 

[Male4Strapon]

This begs another question...If you have a good (1:30 or longer) 5 on 3 Power play....why not pull goalie and go 6 on 3?

I think human nature would prevent that. Coaches will always worry about job security and if you do that and it backfires then you need to explain why you did that when you already have a 2 man advantage. Its one of those things where if it works you're a gutsy genius but if it doesnt then you're a reckless moron.

 

[Male4Strapon]

This thread would have a whole different connotation if it were in the lounge.

lol when i saw the title in New Posts I thought it was about jerking off.

 

[Fun For All]

This begs another question...If you have a good (1:30 or longer) 5 on 3 Power play....why not pull goalie and go 6 on 3?

Because the shorthanded team can shoot the puck the length of the ice into an empty net...

 

[kherg007]

lol when i saw the title in New Posts I thought it was about jerking off.

Lol yes sound dirty...
In the slot
Bangs it home
Blast from the blue line
Headmanning the puck...

 

[kherg007]

Because the shorthanded team can shoot the puck the length of the ice into an empty net...

I realise that but you can one on one defenders and fully control the puck.

 

[Fun For All]

I realise that but you can one on one defenders and fully control the puck.

I'm not getting what you mean 'one on one defenders'...

 

[shack]

Actually it was 1970, the Montreal Canadiens had to score 5 goals to make the playoffs and pulled their goalie halfway through the third period down 5-2 and went on to lose 10-2...one of the great moments in NHL history.

It turns out that the Rangers did the same thing that night but with different results.

On April 5: The craziest New York Rangers game ever (bluelinestation.com)
On this date in 1970, the New York Rangers played the craziest game in their history. They beat the Detroit Red Wings 9-5 to make the playoffs, eliminating the Montreal Canadiens. In an effort to score as many goals as possible, the Rangers set a franchise record with 65 shots on goal and even pulled their goalie in the third period with a six goal lead. The reason was that the Rangers had to win and if Montreal lost and they finished in a tie for fourth place, they had to finish with more goals than the Canadiens.

It didn’t help the hung over Red Wings that the game was a matinee and on national television. As a result, Montreal knew that the Rangers had won and had scored nine goals in the process. The Canadiens took the ice that night in Chicago knowing that they had to win, or lose and score five goals. When they fell behind 3-1 in the second period, they forgot about trying to win and just tried to score those five goals.

With nine minutes left the game and trailing 5-2, the Habs pulled goalie Rogie Vachon in an attempt to get the three goals they needed. It didn’t work as the Black Hawks scored five times for the 10-2 win.

 

[The Oracle]

Actually it was 1970, the Montreal Canadiens had to score 5 goals to make the playoffs and pulled their goalie halfway through the third period down 5-2 and went on to lose 10-2...one of the great moments in NHL history.

I listened to that game on a transistor radio in my room as a youngster.

Now if I remember correctly they had to tie or win that game to make the playoffs. Claude Ruel had to make a desperate decision.

As a Hab fan it was not exactly great listening..........They got walloped!

 

[gcostanza]

This begs another question...If you have a good (1:30 or longer) 5 on 3 Power play....why not pull goalie and go 6 on 3?

Coaches tend to be risk-adverse.

 

[glamphotographer]

I am curious about the statistical effectiveness of pulling the goalie under various circumstances.

What I would specifically like to know is what is the record of number of empty net goals scored where the team pulling the goalie still comes back to tie or win.

And, similarly, what the largest lead has been (i.e. 3 goals) where pulling the goalie worked, and enough goals were scored by the goalie-pulling team to come back and win or at least tie/sned it into overtime.

Most recently...

 

[kherg007]

I'm not getting what you mean 'one on one defenders'...

You ....casually (otherwise interference) ...disrupt/pick the defenders so as to disrupt their movements so the other 3 can unfettered line up a layup so to speak

 

[Fun For All]

You ....casually (otherwise interference) ...disrupt/pick the defenders so as to disrupt their movements so the other 3 can unfettered line up a layup so to speak

That’s not a great strategy...risk an interference penalty with a 5 on 3 advantage? When a player thinks he’s being interfered with they go down pretty easy...