Douchebag, I'll lay it out for you, nice and slow, so you can comprehend. (Not that *your* post was much better than blah blah blah get your head out of your ass blah blah blah what have you beem smoking blah blah blah. An intelligent opening would have engendered an intelligent response. Acting like an ignorant ass gets you called one.)
First, the VAST majority of the violence in Iraq these days (that's not being perpetrated by the Americans, mind you) is directed at the occupying forces and allies - all westerners and those seen as being complicit with the occupiers are included. Even if this violence translated entirely to the new American regime (almost certainly *some, though not *all* of it would), this would not equate to outright civil war.
Second, your example of the Balkans is pitifully weak. The historical violence in the Balkans is ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE worse than anything in the Arab sphere. They've undergone MANY civil wars in their histories, and the UN / NATO involvement predictably didn't change all that much.
Third, don't equate violence, even severe acts of violence, as a civil war. Violence exists in LOTS of countries - this is not the same as all-out civil war, which would almost certainly not take place in Iraq.
But, don't take my word for it. Here's Gwynn Dyer's:
"Nobody is willing to send more troops into the Iraqi cauldron or to bless the occupation as a UN operation - the whole point of the exercise was to get the US troops out - but they are willing to indulge in a little hypocrisy if it would speed American troops on their way. They were well aware that chaos might reign in Iraq afterwards, but Iraq was in chaos already. The priority for the whole world was to get the US defeat in Iraq over with and forgotten as soon as possible and with the least possible damage to American self-esteem, rather than submit to the inevitability of a long, bitter, losing guerilla war that would set the United States against the rest of the world, feed Islamist extremism, and undermine the whole project for great-power collaboration in the service of peace."
"Even the most flawed of elections in Iraq in January would give a victorious President Bush (victorious in the US election) the opportunity of pulling US troops out and enjoying a "decent interval" of a year or two (as Henry Kissinger put it when pulling US troops out of South Viet Nam in 1973) before the roof fell in on the government that Washington left in charge in Baghdad."
"Iraq is an ethincally complex country that has suffered under a succession of bad governments, and the dominant political tradition at the top since the overthrow of its British-imposed monarchy in 1958 has been brutally simple: losers die. However, all the other countries in the vicinity are ethnically complex too: Turkey is almost a quarter Kurdish, Syria has Sunni Arabs and Alawites and Druze and Kurds, Lebanon omits the Kurds but adds several varieties of Christian Arabs to the mix - and Iran has Persians and big minorities of Kurds, Azeri Turks, Arabs, Turcomans, and Baluchis. Most of these countries also have *turbulent and frequently violent political histories*, and all of them have seen clashes between ethnic groups in the past century. But only one of them, Lebanon, has tumbled into a full-scale civil war. There is no particular reason to believe that Iraq would do so if American forces left. It didn't during eight decades of independence before the United States invaded.
"There is not even any good reason to despair of a democratic future for Iraq, *provided that American troops do not stay so long that power automatically devolves to the men with the guns who finally drive them out.*"
I guess Dyer's smoking the same thing I am.
Next time, before you *ask* for intelligent thought on the matter, please *provide* some.
Next.