I like to call straight-up wins on a few close games and box the ones with the higher spreads. On any given Sunday...
I follow a similar strategy as well. In the past I have won with mainly favourites and the pay off is low ($100-$200), hence the change in strategy.
For the past couple of years in mid season there is one of those weeks where the majority of the dogs win outright - Usually some lucky person who knows squat about football wins.
There are quite a few close games for opening week - At first glance I would probably box the Oak/Tenn, SD/KC and/or the Car/NYG games.
For those who do not use other sources of fototball gambling, from the point spread point of view, there appear to be some ok plays:
* Oak +7 - Lot of points
* Pit + 1.5 - The Falcons are a good team, but Pit at home with their defense...Some games Big Ben won by handing the ball off
* Car +7 - Lot of points
* Indy -2.5 - Indy will have a strong opening game
* Bears -6.5 - They are playing the Lions
* SF -4.5 - SF will be ready from the opening kick off
Others I will have to research some more...
* Buf +3.5 - Half decent rivalry and Buf is a home dog
* Phi +4.5 - Phi is a home dog - Is GB that good?
* Rams +3.5 - Ari has lost quite a bit of offense from last season and they were average on defense
Flip a coin:
* Ravens/Jets - Both strong defensively, but I like the Ravens offense more
* Browns/Bucs - The toilet bowl - Whichever team makes the least mistakes wins
* Cincy/NE - Too tough for me to call
* Dal/WSH - Logic says the Boys, but this rivalry has been unpredictable regardless of the talent level
* Den/Jags - A slight upgrade from the Browns/Bucs game...