NFL Week 15

[dirtydaveiii]

San Fran @ Seattle : This game has trap written all over it. The 49ers are coming off a very impressive win against Tampa and the Seahawks a humiliating loss against the Panthers. The 49ers won their earlier match in the season 27-7 which was Seattles only defeat by more than 1 score and Seattle won the previous 4 games so they match up well. Seattles defense is pretty bad and especially horrible against the run. San Fran is unquestionably the best defense in the league but they are ranked 12th in passing so if the Seahawks are to pull off the upset it will be under the arm of Geno Smith who is having the best year of his career. Brock Purdy looked great last week when he outplayed Tom Brady but he did only pass for 185 yards - this week I can see him showing why nobody picked him until the last pick of the draft. San Fran is not very good on the road with losses against Denver, Chicago and Atlanta. This game should be exciting and a Seahawks win would pull them within 1 game of San Fran.

Seattle 27 San Fran 18

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Indy @ Minnesota - After last weeks beat down by the Detroit Lions, a loss to the hapless Colts would make the Vikings look like a 9-3 pretender,. Indy is bad offensively but they are decent against the run and for points allowed. Minnesotas defense is dead last in yards allowed and Indy is the 19th ranked passing team so they do have a shot in this game. The Colts are 1-6 in their last 7 while the Vikings have beat some very good teams and only lost to the Eagles Cowboys and Lions. The Colts stayed with the Cowboys for 3 quarters before surrendering 33 unanswered points in the 4th quarter in their match last Sunday. The Vikings have only lost to Dallas at home. Indy may make this game too close for comfort but they do not have the firepower to expose the Vikings weaknesses. Unless there are a few costly turnovers Minnesota will take this one.


Minnesota 34 - Indy 27

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Baltimore @ Cleveland - the Ravens are 5-1 in their last 6 games which included a 23-20 win against Cleveland. Statistically Clevelands offense is actually pretty good ranking 5th in rushing 6th in yards and 17th in pass yards but they are pretty average defensively ranking 22nd against the rush 17th against the pass and 27th for points allowed. Since 2007 Cleveland has only beat Baltimore 5 times. Aside from Atlanta Cleveland has only lost to good teams. The AFC North always seems to have close games and this one should be no different. Look for a last second field goal to make the difference.

Baltimore 15 - Cleveland 12

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Miami @ Buffalo - The Dolphins boast the #2 passing attack in the league but cant run and cant stop the pass. Running is critical in December especially outdoors in Buffalo where the weather can play a huge factor. Buffalo lost the last meeting 21 to 19 but that was way back in September and before that the Dolphins lost 7 straight to Buffalo. I just dont see Miami getting it done especially after they lost their last 2 games and havent beaten a playoff team since their win against Buffalo back in September. The Bills only poor stat is an average 19th against the pass which bodes well for Miami but this game isnt indoors. There is suppose to be 10-15 cm of snow and wind chills of -7 on Saturday.

Buffalo - 27 Miami 18

 

[K Douglas]

I had SF -4.5 thought that was an easy call. Seattle, like the Giants were a bit of a first half of the season fluke.
Today's games
I'm taking Vikings -3.5 over Colts at home. Simply because Matt Ryan is good for a couple of turnovers. Lean towards under 47.5.
Despite missing Lamar Jackson for this game, I still like the Ravens +3 at the Browns. I see them getting pressure on Watson and stuffing the Cleveland run game. Definitely on the under 39.
Bills to win and cover the night game. Expected snow squalls and accumulations of up to 20 cm doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. Despite that could see this game going over 43.

 

[Ref]

I had SF -4.5 thought that was an easy call. Seattle, like the Giants were a bit of a first half of the season fluke.
Today's games
I'm taking Vikings -3.5 over Colts at home. Simply because Matt Ryan is good for a couple of turnovers. Lean towards under 47.5.
Despite missing Lamar Jackson for this game, I still like the Ravens +3 at the Browns. I see them getting pressure on Watson and stuffing the Cleveland run game. Definitely on the under 39.
Bills to win and cover the night game. Expected snow squalls and accumulations of up to 20 cm doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. Despite that could see this game going over 43.

Bad weather games are fun to watch.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

I had SF -4.5 thought that was an easy call. Seattle, like the Giants were a bit of a first half of the season fluke.
Today's games
I'm taking Vikings -3.5 over Colts at home. Simply because Matt Ryan is good for a couple of turnovers. Lean towards under 47.5.
Despite missing Lamar Jackson for this game, I still like the Ravens +3 at the Browns. I see them getting pressure on Watson and stuffing the Cleveland run game. Definitely on the under 39.
Bills to win and cover the night game. Expected snow squalls and accumulations of up to 20 cm doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. Despite that could see this game going over 43.

I thought Seattle's defense would have been able to confuse Purdy and force him into mistakes but so far he has played great - not unlike Brady when he first went in - the 49ers offense is good enough to not have to put it all in him and expand the playbook every week. If not for the costly turnover before half time this game might have been a lot different although the 49ers defense started teeing off in the 2nd half.

The Ravens and Browns should be a close match especially with Lamar out. I don't think they cover and this game should definitely be under.

Buffalo should have little problem covering- Tua hasn't looked very good lately and the cold and loud fans in Buffalo combined with a very solid defense will not help matters.

The Vikings only 3.5 at home should be an easy cover- the colts don't have the firepower to exploit Minnesotas terrible pass defense.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Indy @ Minnesota - After last weeks beat down by the Detroit Lions, a loss to the hapless Colts would make the Vikings look like a 9-3 pretender,. Indy is bad offensively but they are decent against the run and for points allowed. Minnesotas defense is dead last in yards allowed and Indy is the 19th ranked passing team so they do have a shot in this game. The Colts are 1-6 in their last 7 while the Vikings have beat some very good teams and only lost to the Eagles Cowboys and Lions. The Colts stayed with the Cowboys for 3 quarters before surrendering 33 unanswered points in the 4th quarter in their match last Sunday. The Vikings have only lost to Dallas at home. Indy may make this game too close for comfort but they do not have the firepower to expose the Vikings weaknesses. Unless there are a few costly turnovers Minnesota will take this one.


Minnesota 34 - Indy 27

I called this one pretty good. The Vikings can beat anyone if they can match their 2nd half energy

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

The 0.5's ( the hook in betting terms ) usually kill my bets, so on the tough games I take the Money Line over the spreads. For people who follow ATS data, as the season goes on, the spreads are called sharper and the numbers gravitate towards 50% so that bookies / casinos can concentrate on the losers and just collect the vig. Most teams fall between 40 to 60% ATS on the second half of the season. That's why the majority of let's say CBS / ESPN sport experts and analysts are picking their weekly picks in the same range. Next year I'm going to use stats more to my advantage and win more bets. Today I got lucky. When INDY went up 36 - 3 , I turned off the tv.

 

[shack]

My bad for not posting in advance yesterday, but I had Cleveland and Miami, so I was 2-0.

Today I have Chicago, Denver and Jacksonville.

As always, no football analysis. Just using my anecdotal metrics of spreads over a 20 year period.

 

[Ref]

Cowboys, Lions and Bengals.

 

[shack]

Cowboys, Lions and Bengals.

Shouldn't Dallas be favoured by more than 4, even in Jacksonville? It seems odd. That's why I took Jax.

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

My bad for not posting in advance yesterday, but I had Cleveland and Miami, so I was 2-0.

Today I have Chicago, Denver and Jacksonville.

As always, no football analysis. Just using my anecdotal metrics of spreads over a 20 year period.

JAX , good call. Hope you had them on the M/L. If you ever notice in the NFL when one team goes up 2 or 3 scores, they take the gas off. Not like NCAA where they are ranked for style points / schedule strength . . .

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

Cowboys, Lions and Bengals.

I had the same picks. Cowboys terrible bad beat, giving up the ball when you're driving in OT, a no no . .

 

[Ref]

Before I got into sports betting I used to enjoy watching any game, as long as it was close (blow-outs I would switch the channel).

Then I got into sports betting and my enjoyment of the game went down as I was cheering for a team to cover the spread. I was not making a living off my bets (my guess is I have broken even over the years, or maybe a smallish loss).

So I stopped betting and enjoy the games again.

Though I will join office/friendly pools for bragging rights.

 

[Ref]

That Raiders/NE ending was bizarre.

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

That Raiders/NE ending was bizarre.

I just happened to be on the DK site and I bet LV small at + 1000. Going to be a lot of DK and FD complaints tomorrow. LOL . .

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Wow the biggest comeback in history and the stupidest play in history all in one weekend.

 

[shack]

JAX , good call. Hope you had them on the M/L. If you ever notice in the NFL when one team goes up 2 or 3 scores, they take the gas off. Not like NCAA where they are ranked for style points / schedule strength . . .

Actually, I won all 5 of my picks and am on a real roll. In the last 3 weeks, I am 11-2 against the spread.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

That Raiders/NE ending was bizarre.

I almost feel bad for Meyers. Stevenson must have surprised him when he laterally the ball to him. Meyers obviously lost his situational awareness and went to what he had of practiced in that situation which is keep the play alive- but there was only one problem- THE PATS WERENT LOSING! interesting to see whose head rolls over this one. No reason for Jones not to take a knee and of your going to take a shot at least do it on play action or a fake kneel down - if the play isn't there then just drop and protect the ball. The Pat's OC made a huge mistake in calling a run in the first place - did he actually tell Stevenson to lateral ? Did Jones take it upon himself to call a run rather than kneel?