NFL Football Thread - 2019 season

[shack]

Surprising. I expected it to be a tougher picking week than it actually was.

Well, if you end up losing money then that is what makes it a tough week.

Your analyses are interesting, but whatever stats or trends or injuries a bettor uses as a reason to bet a certain way, I say the oddsmakers have already factored those, and more, into the lines they come up with. IMO, it's 50/50 either way. A monkey could make the picks for a whole year and I'd bet they'd end up between 45-55%. But watching games that you've bet on is lots of fun.

 

[K Douglas]

Well, if you end up losing money then that is what makes it a tough week.

Your analyses are interesting, but whatever stats or trends or injuries a bettor uses as a reason to bet a certain way, I say the oddsmakers have already factored those, and more, into the lines they come up with. IMO, it's 50/50 either way. A monkey could make the picks for a whole year and I'd bet they'd end up between 45-55%. But watching games that you've bet on is lots of fun.

Oddsmakers have access to way more information than the average bettor. So yes over the long run you'll be around 50/50 in your bets. The trick is to catch a prognosticator(s) who is running hot. That would mean someone who is >55% success rate. Going into this season I was actually below 50% in my point spread contest over the past 6 years - 49.3% to be exact. This year I'm over 10 points above that rate.

 

[shack]

Oddsmakers have access to way more information than the average bettor. So yes over the long run you'll be around 50/50 in your bets. The trick is to catch a prognosticator(s) who is running hot. That would mean someone who is >55% success rate. Going into this season I was actually below 50% in my point spread contest over the past 6 years - 49.3% to be exact. This year I'm over 10 points above that rate.

I may not totally agree with the prognosticator strategy but it is better than deluding yourself into thinking some piece of info you have hasn't already been factored in by Vegas. And as hard as it is to win 55% over the long haul, that's what you need to do to win a tiny bit because your are paying an extra 10% on your losing bets for the juice.

 

[Robert 21]

NFL Week 12

https://www.nfl.com/standings
2 Teams with One Loss Week 11
NE (9-1) 17 PHL (5-5) 10 - Brady Passing 26/47 216 Yards No TDs No INTs
ARI (3-7-1) 26 SF (9-1) 36 - Garoppolo 34/45 424 Yards 4 TDs 2 INTs

One No Wins Team
CIN (0-10) Last Week - CIN 10 OAK (6-4) 17

Week 12
http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2019/REG12
DAL (6-4) @ NE (9-1) Sunday 4:25 PM FOX -
Last 10/11/15 NE 30 DAL 6
League Rankings
Offense - DAL 1st NE 16th
Defense - DAL 7th NE 1st
Passing - DAL 1st NE 7thh
Rushing DAL 7th NE 24th
I'm going with NE

GB (8-2) @ SF (9-1) Sunday 8:20 PM NBC -
Last 10/15/18 SF 30 GB 33
League Rankings
Offense - GB 17th SF 5th
Defense - GB 28th SF 2nd
Passing - GB 11th SF 15th
Rushing GB 18th SF 2nd
I'm going with SF (Should be a Good Game)

4 Teams with Two Losses
CAR (5-5) @ NO (8-2) Sunday 1:00 PM CBS -
Last 12/30/18 CAR 33 NO 14
SEA (8-2) @ PHL (5-5) Sunday 1:00 PM FOX -
Last 12/3/17 PHL 10 SEA 24
GB (8-2) @ SF (9-1) Sunday 8:20 PM NBC -
Last 10/15/18 SF 30 GB 33
BAL (8-2) @ LAR (6-4) Monday 8:15 PM ESPN -
Last Preseason 8/9/18 LAR 7 BAL 33



***DO YOUR JOB***

 

[K Douglas]

Game of the week is my Packers at the 49'ers. The line is minus 3 SF which is about right. Tough game to call I'm staying away from that this week. My top 3 bets of the week

1) Eagles -1.5 vs. Seahawks. It's a must win game for the Eagles after last week's tough loss to New England. I think the D can step up and force pressure on Russell Wilson.

2) Broncos +4 at Bills. This has all the makings of a low scoring grind it out defensive battle. Broncos gave the Vikings quite the scare last week getting out to an early 17-0 lead. They won't score 17 this game but I don't think the Bills will either.

3) Titans -3 vs. Jaguars. The Jags have looked pitiful the past two games losing by a combined 59-16 to the Texans and Colts. They did beat the Titans 20-7 at home in week 3 but that's history. Derrick Henry should be able to run all over the Jags D who gave up an astounding 264 yards on the ground to the Colts last week.

 

[K Douglas]

Game of the week is my Packers at the 49'ers. The line is minus 3 SF which is about right. Tough game to call I'm staying away from that this week. My top 3 bets of the week

1) Eagles -1.5 vs. Seahawks. It's a must win game for the Eagles after last week's tough loss to New England. I think the D can step up and force pressure on Russell Wilson.

2) Broncos +4 at Bills. This has all the makings of a low scoring grind it out defensive battle. Broncos gave the Vikings quite the scare last week getting out to an early 17-0 lead. They won't score 17 this game but I don't think the Bills will either.

3) Titans -3 vs. Jaguars. The Jags have looked pitiful the past two games losing by a combined 59-16 to the Texans and Colts. They did beat the Titans 20-7 at home in week 3 but that's history. Derrick Henry should be able to run all over the Jags D who gave up an astounding 264 yards on the ground to the Colts last week.

I have to change up my Eagles pick. Way too many injuries to their offense. I'm going to substitute the Rams +3.5 on Monday night vs the Ravens. The Ravens are coming in scorching and playing excellent on both sides of the ball. Goff and the Rams offense have been underwhelming. But they are starting to get their running game going, Brandin Cooks is back from injury and I think Cooper Kupp can pose some challenges to the Ravens D. The Rams are 7-3 ATS and I think they can at least keep this one close.

 

[K Douglas]

I have to change up my Eagles pick. Way too many injuries to their offense. I'm going to substitute the Rams +3.5 on Monday night vs the Ravens. The Ravens are coming in scorching and playing excellent on both sides of the ball. Goff and the Rams offense have been underwhelming. But they are starting to get their running game going, Brandin Cooks is back from injury and I think Cooper Kupp can pose some challenges to the Ravens D. The Rams are 7-3 ATS and I think they can at least keep this one close.

Boy I got that Rams cover dead wrong. The Ravens are an absolute machine on the field right now. Lamar Jackson is as close to unstoppable as any player in the league. Week 12 was my worst picking week so far

 

[shack]

To illustrate imperfection of the draft process, quarterbacks Baker Mayfield (#1 Browns), Sam Dornald (#3 Jets), Josh Allen (#7 Bills) and Josh Rosen (# 10 Cardinals) were selected ahead of Lamar Jackson in the 2018 draft.

That is a universal occurrence that happens in every sport for every draft every year since drafting began and will happen in every draft in the future. There are always better players passed over.

 

[K Douglas]

That is a universal occurrence that happens in every sport for every draft every year since drafting began and will happen in every draft in the future. There are always better players passed over.

Yep pretty much. Also 3 of those 4 QB's taken ahead of Jackson will likely have solid NFL careers.

 

[shack]

No analysis.

I took Detroit +3, Buff +6.5 and Saints -6.5

 

[K Douglas]

Week 13 picks. Hoping for a better week than last.


[1] Bears -2.5 @ Lions (Thanksgiving Day game) Lions are starting their 3rd string QB who's never taken a snap in the NFL. Bears have been woeful this season but gotta figure they can win this one by at least a FG. Note: the current line is Bears -5, I'd likely take that too.

[2] Bengals +3.5 vs. Jets. Yes the Jets laid a beat down on the Raiders last week but this game looks like a trap for them. The Bengals are starting their original QB Andy Dalton and their defense has actually improved over the past couple of weeks. I definitely like them to cover if not win outright for their 1st win of the season.

[3] Packers -6.5 at Giants. The 2-9 Giants are horrible. Likely without their TE Engram again as well as WR Golden Tate who is in concussion protocol. The Packers were decimated by the 49'ers last week, they'll be looking for some redemption in week 13.

 

[K Douglas]

No analysis.

I took Detroit +3, Buff +6.5 and Saints -6.5

I like the Bills and Saints picks but not Lions. See my analysis in prior post.

 

[shack]

I like the Bills and Saints picks but not Lions. See my analysis in prior post.

I am not so keen on the Lions once I found out they are down to their 3rd string QB, but my bet was already in. At least I got a few more points, up to 6. Hopefully Trubisky can revert to form and play his typical stinker stinker.

 

[derrick76]

Surely this is it for Garrett!

 

[blueray]

Surely this is it for Garrett!

Us Cowboy fans can only hope!

 

[K Douglas]

Us Cowboy fans can only hope!

JJ loves Garrett who knows. Dak had a poor game and EE doesn't look his usual dominant self. Missing Leighton Vander-Esch on the D is huge too. But results speak and the Cowboys have a track record of not performing in big games under Garrett. JJ may not have a choice but to terminate him.

 

[shack]

No analysis.

I took Detroit +6, Buff +6.5 and Saints -6.5

I guess I did fairly good.

I thought the Bills defense looked super. Very active. And then that double reverse and pass for a TD was spectacular.

 

[OnTheWayOut]

Dallas still has not beaten a team over .500. They don't deserve the playoffs. The Bills however most certainly do!

 

[K Douglas]

Dallas still has not beaten a team over .500. They don't deserve the playoffs. The Bills however most certainly do!

I think the Bills quieted a lot of the naysayers with this Thanksgiving Day victory.

 

[shack]

Watching Pats/Texans. Brady's arm looks shot. Weak and inaccurate. So many low passes into the turf and not just today. The last few games.