NFL betting lines -spreads /teasers/over unders
- Thread starter healer677
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No the OLGC spreads come out Wednesday at the earliest. I use bet365 based in England and they usually have their spreads out by Sunday evening or early Monday morning. OLGC is kind of a ripoff.
12-3 ats so far this year. My best bet pick of this weekend is:
DAL -12.5 vs. StL - When will the Romo bubble burst? Isn't this a ton of points to give? Not this week and yes, but we're talking about the Rams here are the answers.
INDY -9.5 vs. Den - Indy can be a maddening team for ats bettors, but I like them to blow out a mediocre Broncos team at home, in my other best bet game.
NYG +2.5 vs. Phil - Here's where it starts to get a little dicey. Last week, Phil played an explosive offensive game vs. the Lions, while the G-Men needed to play a little defense for once to hold off the 'Skins. In the "everyone kind of blows but the Cowboys" NFC East, I like the Giants' chances in this one as a home dog.
MIA -3.5 vs. Oak - If there was ever a game that no one should care about, it's this one. The Raiders have played better this year, but they are still awful. I look for the 'Phins to get off the schneid at home.
BUF +3.5 vs. NyJ - No one cares, volume II. I don't love this game, but I can't find another game I like better.
No touches for me: Atl/Hou, Minn/GB, SF/Sea.
DAL -12.5 vs. StL - When will the Romo bubble burst? Isn't this a ton of points to give? Not this week and yes, but we're talking about the Rams here are the answers.
INDY -9.5 vs. Den - Indy can be a maddening team for ats bettors, but I like them to blow out a mediocre Broncos team at home, in my other best bet game.
NYG +2.5 vs. Phil - Here's where it starts to get a little dicey. Last week, Phil played an explosive offensive game vs. the Lions, while the G-Men needed to play a little defense for once to hold off the 'Skins. In the "everyone kind of blows but the Cowboys" NFC East, I like the Giants' chances in this one as a home dog.
MIA -3.5 vs. Oak - If there was ever a game that no one should care about, it's this one. The Raiders have played better this year, but they are still awful. I look for the 'Phins to get off the schneid at home.
BUF +3.5 vs. NyJ - No one cares, volume II. I don't love this game, but I can't find another game I like better.
No touches for me: Atl/Hou, Minn/GB, SF/Sea.
homonger -tell me you didn't take Buffalo? even with points.
They lost their only decent LB and Lose-man looks like he'll be out. If that's the case, they're going with a rookie QB. I decided to take the Jets on 1 ticket just to see what happens.
By the way -Chicago just got 100% better -Grossman is sitting, Griese is in.
They lost their only decent LB and Lose-man looks like he'll be out. If that's the case, they're going with a rookie QB. I decided to take the Jets on 1 ticket just to see what happens.
By the way -Chicago just got 100% better -Grossman is sitting, Griese is in.
I know it sounds sick, but I just don't really like a lot of the games out there this weekend. Buffalo usually plays a tough solid game at home. I expect the game to be low scoring and I don't think the Jets are any good.healer677 said:
Home dogs are 8-5 ats so far this season, and I'm 4-1 with them so far.
Just some added thoughts for Week 4....
- GB has won the past 2 games vs Minnesota -counting last year, GB has won 7 games in a row. GB has to control the D-line of Minnesota (the same way they controlled SD and Tomlinson). Look for GB to stack 7 and 8 in the box to control Peterson. Minnesota has no passing attack and has been in the red zone only 4 times this year.
Keep in mind this is a historical game for Favre -there might be some fireworks.
- StLouis will be starting 2nd round pick Brian Leonard. His job will be a lot harder without Steven Jackson. StL cannot stop the run (check the game vs the Bucs). Dallas' offense is lights out -38.7 ppg. Romo's passer rating is at 111.9 right now. Dallas is plus 7 in turnover differentials and has 8 ints so far this year.
-The Steelers have won the past 2 contests here. Ben is 11-1 vs NFC opponents and has a passer rating of 101.9 (for what little he does pass). Tomlin is trying to be the first rookie coach to go 4-0 to start his career. AZ coach Wisenhut is pissed -he got passed by in Steeltown and Grimm might have something to prove as well. Lineart will start -but he's overmatched -watch for the hook here if he struggles again.
-Indy won 3 of 5 and going for third consecutive 4-0 start. Watch for an aggressive run game for Indy. Denver has a much better secondary than Manning has seen all year but are open against the run. Will Manning challenge not just one but two of the best corners in the league?
-SD won 4 of 6, and going for their 10th consecutive home win. SD needs a breakout game and KC is hurting all over.
-Rudi is out -the Bengals have no run offense. NE has won 5 of 6 vs the Bungels. Cincinnati will resort to a pass first game plan here but NE leads the league in D -allowing only 207ypg -they have 10 sacks, Vrabel and Green are amongst the league leaders in tackles -all this while Harrison is still under suspension.
-Schaub is looking to vindicate his good football name -this is a revenge game. But with Andre Johnson still out he'll have to spread the wealth -Houston had a lousy record in domes but broke that streak vs Carolina in week2. DeAngelo Hall is an idiot -hopefully he causes the Falcons another game this week.
- GB has won the past 2 games vs Minnesota -counting last year, GB has won 7 games in a row. GB has to control the D-line of Minnesota (the same way they controlled SD and Tomlinson). Look for GB to stack 7 and 8 in the box to control Peterson. Minnesota has no passing attack and has been in the red zone only 4 times this year.
Keep in mind this is a historical game for Favre -there might be some fireworks.
- StLouis will be starting 2nd round pick Brian Leonard. His job will be a lot harder without Steven Jackson. StL cannot stop the run (check the game vs the Bucs). Dallas' offense is lights out -38.7 ppg. Romo's passer rating is at 111.9 right now. Dallas is plus 7 in turnover differentials and has 8 ints so far this year.
-The Steelers have won the past 2 contests here. Ben is 11-1 vs NFC opponents and has a passer rating of 101.9 (for what little he does pass). Tomlin is trying to be the first rookie coach to go 4-0 to start his career. AZ coach Wisenhut is pissed -he got passed by in Steeltown and Grimm might have something to prove as well. Lineart will start -but he's overmatched -watch for the hook here if he struggles again.
-Indy won 3 of 5 and going for third consecutive 4-0 start. Watch for an aggressive run game for Indy. Denver has a much better secondary than Manning has seen all year but are open against the run. Will Manning challenge not just one but two of the best corners in the league?
-SD won 4 of 6, and going for their 10th consecutive home win. SD needs a breakout game and KC is hurting all over.
-Rudi is out -the Bengals have no run offense. NE has won 5 of 6 vs the Bungels. Cincinnati will resort to a pass first game plan here but NE leads the league in D -allowing only 207ypg -they have 10 sacks, Vrabel and Green are amongst the league leaders in tackles -all this while Harrison is still under suspension.
-Schaub is looking to vindicate his good football name -this is a revenge game. But with Andre Johnson still out he'll have to spread the wealth -Houston had a lousy record in domes but broke that streak vs Carolina in week2. DeAngelo Hall is an idiot -hopefully he causes the Falcons another game this week.
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Congratulations homonger!
Nice call on the Bills -I can't believe I didn't listen to myself. I've always harped about betting against 0 and something teams, the Bills and the Falcons gave it me this week. Figuring they gotta win sometime- I didn't figure it would be the Bills week but that rookie sure looked better than Lose-man at running that offense. SD is truly shitty, they've become unbettable for the rest of the year now and wtf did Pittsburgh do?! 4 for 8 this week -that is downright disgraceful.
I guess on to Week 5. Going into Week 5 - 30 out of 40 picks a horrible 75% for the season so far.
Nice call on the Bills -I can't believe I didn't listen to myself. I've always harped about betting against 0 and something teams, the Bills and the Falcons gave it me this week. Figuring they gotta win sometime- I didn't figure it would be the Bills week but that rookie sure looked better than Lose-man at running that offense. SD is truly shitty, they've become unbettable for the rest of the year now and wtf did Pittsburgh do?! 4 for 8 this week -that is downright disgraceful.
I guess on to Week 5. Going into Week 5 - 30 out of 40 picks a horrible 75% for the season so far.
Thanks healer. 4-1 ats this week and 16-4 so far this season.
I wasn't crazy about a couple of my picks this week, but I stuck with them and it worked out for the most part.
The Bills are horrible, but they played well enough to win today. That was purely a "home dog, give me the points against a team (The Jets) that has no business being favored over anybody" sort of pick.
Dallas and Indy seem like no-brainers after the fact.
Then there are the G-Men, who despite sucking totally on offense, managed to manhandle the depleted Eagles tonight. Pretty dull game, but I'll take the win and the $$$.
And after stubbornly going with Miami in two out of the first four weeks, I am now convinced they are just bad and will be bad for the rest of the season.
I wasn't crazy about a couple of my picks this week, but I stuck with them and it worked out for the most part.
The Bills are horrible, but they played well enough to win today. That was purely a "home dog, give me the points against a team (The Jets) that has no business being favored over anybody" sort of pick.
Dallas and Indy seem like no-brainers after the fact.
Then there are the G-Men, who despite sucking totally on offense, managed to manhandle the depleted Eagles tonight. Pretty dull game, but I'll take the win and the $$$.
And after stubbornly going with Miami in two out of the first four weeks, I am now convinced they are just bad and will be bad for the rest of the season.
Lost a $700. proline ticket with SD.....Uggg
My other picks came through like Clev, Det, Cards, Tb and Sea
but SD failed to win by 13..
I almost threw my beer bottle at the TV.. I dont know what to say about SD.
I really think that the team is dumping games cause they want Marty back. Thats the only thing that explains whats going on with them. They let KC beat (crush) them at home after losing 3 games???
Sumthings up and I wont be taking them again this year.
My other picks came through like Clev, Det, Cards, Tb and Sea
but SD failed to win by 13..
I almost threw my beer bottle at the TV.. I dont know what to say about SD.
I really think that the team is dumping games cause they want Marty back. Thats the only thing that explains whats going on with them. They let KC beat (crush) them at home after losing 3 games???
Sumthings up and I wont be taking them again this year.
I think a lot of people feel the same way about SD, John. Last year, they were money. This year, they stink. Was firing Schottenheimer a mistake? Hard to say. I think it is amazing that a guy who goes 14-2 and gets you within 5 minutes and 3 points of the AFC Championship game can get fired, but hey, I'm not an owner.
Such is the nature of the NFL, is all I can say. Every year there seems to be a team that exceeds all expectations. Last year it was SD and NO. But the year before they were 9-7 and 3-13, respectively. Two years ago, on their way to the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh was money. Last year they stunk. Who's to say which is the real team? But as statisticians would say, there is a lot of regressing to the mean in the NFL.
Such is the nature of the NFL, is all I can say. Every year there seems to be a team that exceeds all expectations. Last year it was SD and NO. But the year before they were 9-7 and 3-13, respectively. Two years ago, on their way to the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh was money. Last year they stunk. Who's to say which is the real team? But as statisticians would say, there is a lot of regressing to the mean in the NFL.
And the Pats have covered every week so far. I haven't seen a line yet for this game, but it's gonna be big. Huge. I take the Pats without too much concern up to -16. If it's in the -12 range, I take the Pats as a best bet.DonQuixote said:
This is a sick week. Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona (!) are all favorites. Based on early lines, I like GB over Chicago (who thought I'd be saying that at the beginning of the year?), Houston over Miami, KC over Jax, and the G-Men over the Jets. Both Indy and Dallas are favored by 10 pts, against TB and Buffalo, respectively. As much as I'd love to ride the Cowboy gravy train all year, I think that's a lot of points. I have no doubt Dallas wins, and they might even cover, but that one's too close for me. Ditto for Indy against a nicely improving TB team.
This week I'm taking:
GB -3.5 vs. Chi - I like this one so much, I'm gonna call it my best bet
NE -15.5 vs. Cle - This is a boatload of points, but there is nothing to make me believe the Patriot juggernaut will have any problems at home vs. Cle
HOU -5.5 vs. Mia - Is this a pick for Houston or against Miami? After starting out 2-0, the Texans have lost two straight, although they did sort of give the Colts a game at home. The 'Phins are bad.
KC +2.5 vs. Jax - You know me, I'm a sucker for a home dog. This is a defining game for KC in the suddenly sucky AFC West, and I look for the Chiefs to build on some momentum after beating down the Bolts last week.
NYG -3.5 vs. Nyj - After looking just horrible for two games, the G-Men have rebounded and won two straight divisional games. The Jets are not very good.
GB -3.5 vs. Chi - I like this one so much, I'm gonna call it my best bet
NE -15.5 vs. Cle - This is a boatload of points, but there is nothing to make me believe the Patriot juggernaut will have any problems at home vs. Cle
HOU -5.5 vs. Mia - Is this a pick for Houston or against Miami? After starting out 2-0, the Texans have lost two straight, although they did sort of give the Colts a game at home. The 'Phins are bad.
KC +2.5 vs. Jax - You know me, I'm a sucker for a home dog. This is a defining game for KC in the suddenly sucky AFC West, and I look for the Chiefs to build on some momentum after beating down the Bolts last week.
NYG -3.5 vs. Nyj - After looking just horrible for two games, the G-Men have rebounded and won two straight divisional games. The Jets are not very good.
Agreed with your picks homonger but for me KC is a cancer.
I'm loving Tennesse at home after a bye -I'm still convinced Atlanta sucks. I'll take Arizona on the road too -StL plain stinks. I like the Steelers at home and it's hard not to take Indy, maybe buy the points down, TB is all smoke and mirrors at this point. and of course how can I bet against the Cowboys against the all of a sudden lucky Bills.
I'm loving Tennesse at home after a bye -I'm still convinced Atlanta sucks. I'll take Arizona on the road too -StL plain stinks. I like the Steelers at home and it's hard not to take Indy, maybe buy the points down, TB is all smoke and mirrors at this point. and of course how can I bet against the Cowboys against the all of a sudden lucky Bills.
I don't have the exact statistical percentages on this, but teams who play on the road after playing Monday night fail to cover the spread the following week almost 70% of the time. This trend is not dependent on whether or not they played at home or on the road on Monday night, and there is no statistical anomaly if they play at home on the following Sunday.
Ive lost my mind
This week there are no best bets -just all out betting. Ive hitched my wagon on 9 teams played with 3 tickets -two straight spreads( 9 team parlay and a 6 team parlay) and a 7 point teaser - I took the Titans at -8, Houston at -5 1/2, Pitt at -5 1/2, NE at -16, AZ -3 1/2, NYG -3 1/2, IND -10, GB -3 and Dallas -10.
I'm all busy at work today so I haven't really read up on anything. Let's see if the instinct method works.lol.
Good luck all and happy betting.
This week there are no best bets -just all out betting. Ive hitched my wagon on 9 teams played with 3 tickets -two straight spreads( 9 team parlay and a 6 team parlay) and a 7 point teaser - I took the Titans at -8, Houston at -5 1/2, Pitt at -5 1/2, NE at -16, AZ -3 1/2, NYG -3 1/2, IND -10, GB -3 and Dallas -10.
I'm all busy at work today so I haven't really read up on anything. Let's see if the instinct method works.lol.
Good luck all and happy betting.
I personally think it is a little nuts that the Saints are the favorites in this game, but they can't get any worse, and the Panthers haven't been all that great either. I like Carolina in this game, but not enough to bet it.John_E_Depth said:
I wont usually touch these 2 teams either but I have to take one sinces its a straight up pools ticket..
Hmmm? Car QB out Saints jus came off a rest and SHOULD be prepared. Plus this is a must win game for NWO not for the sake of making the playoffs or anything but more for saving face. If they cant win here/now its going to be a very embarrasing and long season for them.
To save any kind of face NWO, SD must win this week...
For this I'll have to lean towards the (clears throat) Saints...
Hmmm? Car QB out Saints jus came off a rest and SHOULD be prepared. Plus this is a must win game for NWO not for the sake of making the playoffs or anything but more for saving face. If they cant win here/now its going to be a very embarrasing and long season for them.
To save any kind of face NWO, SD must win this week...
For this I'll have to lean towards the (clears throat) Saints...
All of this is true but....
both teams are cancers to bet on. The problem is, specially if you play parlays; would you be willing to bet a ticket or two on either of these guys to win? It gets tricky there.
both teams are cancers to bet on. The problem is, specially if you play parlays; would you be willing to bet a ticket or two on either of these guys to win? It gets tricky there.
