NFL betting lines -spreads /teasers/over unders

[homonger]

A little late, since last night's game seems like a no-brainer, after the fact, but my picks for this week:

INDY -6.5 vs No
BUF +3.5 vs. Den (I know, looks nuts, doesn't it?)
Kc +1.5 vs. HOU
SEA -6.5 vs. Tb
CIN -2.5 vs Balt

My best bet of the week would have been Indy, but that's already done. My 2nd best bet would be Kc plus the points. I've seen lines with Kc getting +3, so I'm jumping on those.

 

[Anderson]

Can you tell me lottery numbers that you would have picked for last Wednesday 6/49 please ?

 

[healer677]

homonger, nice to see you're back sir. Where is our Bears fan mrpolarbear?

KC? Really? Ballsy. I like KC but didn't have the nuts to bet on them, I still see that as a possible steal. But the Buffalo bet is even ballsier -good luck.

Hedging the NO game cost me a ticket, I thought the number 1 offense from last year could at least keep it inside 2 score. I'm hoping for better luck with the Bears / Chargers game. I lost a lot of value this week by playing all teasers but I figured I'd just feel my way into the first three weeks or so.

 

[homonger]

homonger, nice to see you're back sir. Where is our Bears fan mrpolarbear?

KC? Really? Ballsy. I like KC but didn't have the nuts to bet on them, I still see that as a possible steal. But the Buffalo bet is even ballsier -good luck.

Thanks, healer. I always enjoy this time of year. I'm sure mrpolarbear will be along soon.

I think I have explained this before, but I'm in a Pick 5 league every year, and all you have to do is pick 5 games ATS every week. Whomever picks the most winners wins, and there are bonuses if you go 5-0 in any given week. It's $200 for 17 weeks of fun, so that's less than $12 a week. So I'm willing to take an occasional chance. I only put incremental money on Indy and KC, so with Indy winning, I'm already up for the season. Let's see how long that lasts

 

[healer677]

This might turn out to be a good day

It's 1 am -am watching the Arizona State game and I'm one win away from hitting a monster 11 team college football parlay. The same ticket I predicted earlier in this thread.

C'mon Arizona!

 

[gladheateher]

It's 1 am -am watching the Arizona State game and I'm one win away from hitting a monster 11 team college football parlay. The same ticket I predicted earlier in this thread.

C'mon Arizona!

what channel is that on?

 

[healer677]

So far this season....

I got lucky on that college ticket and nailed an 11 for 11 parlay money line bet -that was plain lucky.

I lost (but expected to lose) one of my hedged tickets with NO on it but managed to win both legs of the SD and Chi game. I took SD plus 1 and had Chi plus 12 1/2.

The only real disappointment was StL -even at plus 8 they still couldn't cover with a late backdoor score.

Waiting on Baltimore plus 9 1/2 tomorrow night......

as for the rest -they all came in. Indy as a money line and 45.5 over, Denver plus 2 1/2, Pitt at plus 3, Phi at plus 4 NE at plus .5, Chi at plus 12 1/2, SD, Sea and Dallas all at plus 1. So if Baltimore comes in at 9 1/2 it will be quite a profitable, yet conservatively played week 1.

 

[homonger]

3-1 so far, with the Bengals -2.5 to go tomorrow. Here's to a 6 point victory, so both Healer and I can win our bets.

So much for my "best bet" with the Chiefs. I watched bits and pieces of that game, and KC looked horrible. Against the Texans, no less. I do feel pretty smart with my Buffalo pick though. I didn't really care about the outcome, since I had my bet won, but Denver managed to get off that last second FG, which was pretty amazing. Seattle made me sweat a little in the first quarter, but they pretty much had their way for the rest of the game against the hapless Bucs.

No bet on this game, but that was a very entertaining Sunday night game between the Cowboys and Giants. Not a lot of defense got played, that's for sure.

 

[Scenicdrive]

....I didn't really care about the outcome, since I had my bet won, but Denver managed to get off that last second FG, which was pretty amazing....

Not that the Denver Broncos played excellent football, it is just that the stupid Buffalo Bills were more incompetent and impotent in general, that's all. You can bet against the Bills all season long and come out a winner. *Wink, wink* You can bet Losman aka Lossman will be run out of town as long as he plays like a headless chicken. LOL!!!

 

[healer677]

Next week for Week 2 Buffalo is screwed. They've got the Steelers at home in Pittsburgh.I'll go on a limb and call that the BEST BET of week 2.lol.

Even with Denver at home vs Oakland and KC visiting Chicago -I still think Buffalo will get thumped next week.

There are a few notable key injuries already, and it's only week 1. Crap.

It's a subdued celebration in light of Everett's injury. I did manage to go 11 for 11 in college and 10 for 12 (hedge bet included so it's actually11) for the NFL weekend. Didn't get the 6 but will settle for a 7 -good call homonger.

The early lines are already up - Pitt - 9 1/2, Car - 6 1/2, Indy -7, Jax -10, Det -3, Dal -3 1/2, Den -9 1/2, Chi -12, NE - 3 1/2 and Philly -7. The injury reports should move these between now and Friday night.

 

[healer677]

Week 2 review -staying with the teasers

After a good Week 1 in the NFL and a very good Week 2 in NCAAF I decided to stick with a winning formula. It'll be teasers for the NFL (7 points) and Money Lines for NCAAF.

Let's start with the BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.

Buffalo 0-1 in Pittsburgh 1-0 - Big Ben threw for about 160 yds on the road, but he never does anyways. The Steelers played a tomato can in the Browns, well; here comes another soft one. Buffalo is soft -Cottonelle soft. The only notable injury for the Steelers is TE Heath Miller -so they come into this home opener healthy and ready. The Bills are a mess. Lose-man aside -the devastating injury to TE Everrett may be a morale breaker this early in the season. They dropped their home opener against Denver (who played like shit -Elam missed 3 FGs -this won't happen again) despite the Ds best efforts. The D got no help from the Lose-man led offense 14-21 for 97yds a pick, a fumble and no tds. Take the Steelers money line and take them on a -2 1/2 off a 7 point teaser. The -9 1/2 might be a tall order but the way Buffalo looks ,if you're feeling sassy -go for it.

Cincinnati 1-0 at Cleveland 0-1 - The Bengals are coming off a massive win vs the Ravens 27-20. This game came right to the wire -a lot of questionable calls but wtf. Palmer played well 20/32 194 and 2 tds. They have a few notable injuries -TJ, Graham and Anderson but this houldn't stop them from kicking the Browns around all day. The Browns are in disarray -they traded Frye today for a bag of used balls to Seattle and now that ought to fix their QB problems.....lol. Take Cincinnati at plus .5 off a teaser and if you're doing that might as well take them as a money line. I can't see them not covering a 6 1/2 point spread as well.

and last but certainly not the least -

Indy 1-0 at Tennessee - The Titans had a huge win vs the Jags but this is INdy they're facing. The spread is at 7 and the answer is yes -yes for INdy to cover, yes for Indy on money line and yes for INdy on a teaser (which is a money line bet). Indy torched NO and with an extra few days for rest and planning -the Titans are screwed.

 

[healer677]

No touches ....

Surprisingly there are a few teams that are no-touches for me. After their performance or injuries or just a bad feeling these teams are unbettable on my books. Starting with....

Houston at Carolina - Carolina swarmed Bulger after Pace was lost to an injury. The Rams' O-line couldn't stop the blitz and lost 27-13. Houston killed KC 20-3. The line opened for Carolina at 6.5. This could go either way -Houston would look great as a 13.5 pt dog and Carolina on a moneyline but....not for me.

Atlanta at Jax -Jax suffered a close loss 13-10 vs the Titans. The Jags looked like shit on the ground and the QB couldn't produce all on his own. Atlanta has no O-line- poor Harrington. Those picks were not all his fault. But the Falcons are in a mess. Jags open at -10.....wow -10 that seems like a lot. So I won't take them as a -3. But moneyline -maybe. But there's other better values out there. I'll edge the Jags on this one if I had to...but, I don't have to.

SF at StL -cancer alert. StL is favored by 3.5 but even with a teaser, and a home opener I do not trust this team. The O-line has a huge gaping hole, running game is in jeopardy (Jackson can't hang on to the ball) and they need someone to run the slot more effectively. SF got lucky on their winning TD drive -the rest of the day the offense did fuck all nothing.

NYJ at Baltimore -the are too many injurues in the Ravens camp. Too many ifs for next week. Though the Jets got skulled by the Pats this game is currently OTB in Vegas -so it's OTB for me as well. The Ravens will get a nod for it being the home opener and they have to take better care of the ball -the D played amazing but 6 turnovers? Come on....and like I said in my Week 1 review -Pennington is due for an injury -surprise, surprise.

Minnesota at Detroit - Ford field will be rockin for the season opener. Contain Tavares and Peterson you win -but Kitna doesn't look bad either. No thanks spread is at 3 1/2 for the Lions. Both teams got lucky playing tomato cans in week 1.

and the last of the no touches -

Washington at Philly -Phi had a huge loss in GB but even worse is pro bowler Lito Sheppard is out. Not that that would make a difference. The skins will run the ball down your throat anyways- even with the addition of Caldwell - so you don't need a game stopping corner. Ohilly is geting7 for this home opener -no thanks.

 

[homonger]

4-1 so far, so for my 5 picks this week, I am going with:

DEN -9.5 vs. Oak (this is my best bet pick)
NE -3.5 vs. Sd (I usually stay away from big games like this, but I have to go with the cheaters)
MIA +3.5 vs. Dal (Dallas played great on Sunday, but I like the 'Phins as a home dog)
TB +3.5 vs No (This is my 'eyebrow raise' pick of the week)
Min +3.5 vs. DET (Yes, the Lions beat up on the hapless Raiders last week, but I feel the same way about the Lions as ScenicDrive feels about the Bills).

I agree with healer about Balt/NYJ and Wash/PHIL... both are no touches for me too.

 

[healer677]

Now for the rest of the picks.....

NO at TB - NO was ball smoked by Indy 41-10. They were outplayed in almost every major category and I cannot see how TB can match up. Seattle is suppose to be the cream of their division and they handed TB a 20-6 loss. Indy is a far superior team than Seattle IMO and I cannot see hoe Indy won't cover the line (at -7), the money line and a teaser bet.

GB at NYG - The G-men are a mess -Eli, Umenyiora, RB Jacobs and Dockery are all out. As a pick'em I'll take GB plus 7 thank you. But even at a money line, I'd take GB. GB had a huge win vs the Eagles. They have a money kicker, the special team played well and they have a young swarming LB core. It's going to be a long year for the G-Men.

Dallas at Miami -this is where we have our difference homonger. I like Dallas plus points on a teaser (3 1/2). I know Dallas can score 45-35 vs the GMen, I'm not sure Miami can keep up -16-13 loss vs Wsh. I'm more comfortable taking Dallas plus points on this one.

Seattle at Arizona -Az is coming into a short week plus they have no ground offense. I took Seattle plus 4.

Oakland at Denver -Mile high opener, Elam won't miss 3 FGs again and they should clean up all those fumbles and mistakes. Culpepper will start but it doesnt matter. Denver on this one.

KC at Chicago -the Bears will be out for blood after a poorly executed game in SD. Bears have a couple of starters injured but KC has no passing attack and no O-line. So -I'll take Chicago at a bad number of minus 5.5

and last but not the least -

SD in NE - I hate betting on these but I get the feeling it will be close. Close enough to take the Pats plus points. This should be a pretty even match up offensively and defensively. It comes down to home field. This has the makings of a good hedged teaser bet -NE plus 3.5 and SD plus 10.5 -I personally will be taking NE on a teased line.

So thats pretty much it for Week 2 -good luck to all.....by the way for NCAAF for the weekend -money lines on WV,TC, OK state, Auburn, maybe Cincinnati, purdue /c. michigan line over, Fla, Oregon, Mich st., UCLA, maybe Houston, NWtern, AZ and Minnesota...and maybe an over for Kentky/Louisville.

 

[jan00b]

last week i won my point spread, but not my pro line, but heres my picks for this week:
1 1:00PM FTB ATL JAK H -10.5 - ATL is gonna struggle, Jacksonville has more than enough to pull 11+ if the Vikings did it.
3 1:00PM FTB CIN CLE V -7.5 - Offense of the bengals will destroy the browns
5 1:00PM FTB GB NYG V -1.5 - Injured Eli Manning GB with a great advantage
6 1:00PM FTB NWO TB V -3.5 - Offense of NWO is amazing though they couldn't come close to the colts.. but tb aint not colts
9 4:00PM FTB SEA ARZ V -3.5 - SEAHAWKS over the struggling ARZ team.

 

[Young_City]

I know this is a thread on NFL lines but I thought I'd post my NFL leans as well as a few NCAAF leans I have.

NCAAF:
TCU -8
USC -9 (Bought the half-point)
UCLA -13 (Bought the half-point)
WVU -16 (bought the points)
Boston College +7
Akron +13.5

NFL:
Pittsburgh -10
Cincinnati -6 (bought the half-point)
Indianapolis -7
Jacksonville -10
New England ML

I'm actually thinking about picking 15 games from both college and the NFL and putting maybe $10 or $20 on a parlay. I got 14/15 the first week of the NCAAF, Minny f'd me up badly, so I figure I'll take another shot at it.

Good luck to all the degenerates who bet on this weeks games .

 

[healer677]

Degenerate here.

For the NCAAF -there were a few (ok a lot -about 16) good values. I'm too much of a pussy and only took 11 teams for my "big" parlay. They're all moneylines but I settled on - Texas Christian, Illinois, Auburn, Florida, UCLA, Houston, Louisville to go over 70 (bought it down from 77), Northwestern, Florida State, Minnesota, and Central Michigan to go over 59 (from 66).

I just play 1 ticket for the NCAAF so it's feast or famine for me.

But my big ticket for the NFL is built around 11 teams. I usually break them down to more managable 5, 6, or even 9 team parlays and I play one "big" ticket. My "big" ticket is: Pit -2.5, Cin +.5, Indy as a pick 'em, Car +.5, GB+7, NO+3.5, Dal +3.5, Sea+4, Den-3, Chi -5.5 and NE +3.5. I decided to up my $ bets and stick with moneylines for now. Granted there's less value but it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

 

[Young_City]

TCU vs. Air Force

TCU are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
TCU are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Air Force are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on Grass.
Air Force are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

I'm also considering the over but for now I've only had TCU -8 locked in.

Hope you guys all hit your plays this weekend.

 

[healer677]

I agree -Air Force is what we would call a tomato can.lol

You should really look into Louisville as an over. These two teams couldn't stop an troop of girl guides on D but both teams can score by the bucketloads. They listed the over at 77 but I'm pretty sure they'll pass that number by the third. I bought it down to 70 just in case though and considering I only have one ticket for NCAAF, I wanted to play it safe.

Rumor has it Eli and Pennington will both suit up. I have serious doubts on their effectiveness though.

 

[Young_City]

I agree -Air Force is what we would call a tomato can.lol

You should really look into Louisville as an over. These two teams couldn't stop an troop of girl guides on D but both teams can score by the bucketloads. They listed the over at 77 but I'm pretty sure they'll pass that number by the third. I bought it down to 70 just in case though and considering I only have one ticket for NCAAF, I wanted to play it safe.

Rumor has it Eli and Pennington will both suit up. I have serious doubts on their effectiveness though.

I agree with you about Eli and Pennington.

I looked in the Louisville over and I think I'm gonna use it in my weekly 15 team parlay. I'll probably buy it down to 70 to.