Moderated posts- MSOG

[msog87]

So I've never invested in stocks or anything like that but would like to make more money. I have always bought GIC, bonds back then but now the interests are so low, I would like something with a higher return. I opened a TD waterhouse account because I bank with them and feel more comfois rtable knowing my money safe there. I know they may be more expensive. I have maxed out my tax free savings account and have over 6 figures in my hi interst savings account. I'm not in need of the cash anytime soon, so any advice would be appreciated. Thanks

everything your hear in the mainstream media regarding investing ignore it, its all vanilla these banks are more interested in avoiding lawsuits and making money off you in fees, not too mention the majority of economists and money managers are clueless. my advice to you would be to invest into natural resources, as the fundamentals are great we are in the midst of a longterm bull market. I have huge rants in the " not too late to make money" thread and the" investing assets in tfsa" thread on the fisrt page of this forum, lots of great knowledge. I would advise you to start following these two men: marc faber and peter schiff, both are no nonsense and have some of the best track records in the industry, lots of videos on youtube for you to listen too. Dont make any investments until you do your research and have all your ?'s answered, the important thing for you right now is capital preservation, there are some high yielding conservative defensive stocks you can own while you study the market. anyway, this is my advice to you.

 

[msog87]

The U.S. banks are due for a turnaround after 5 difficult years. Catch them on the rebound. In fact, they have already rebound to an extent but the best is yet to come.

the u.s. banks are all insolvant, once rates rise they are all going to need bailots. their entire balance sheet is toxic and will tank once rates rise. the u.s. economy is not recovering right now there is some activity in husing bc of what the fed is doing but it wont last

 

[msog87]

current fed president on the fed trying to reinflate the housing bubble:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsRCYJsuXDI

 

[goodguy1977]

the u.s. banks are all insolvant, once rates rise they are all going to need bailots. their entire balance sheet is toxic and will tank once rates rise. the u.s. economy is not recovering right now there is some activity in husing bc of what the fed is doing but it wont last

I'm sorry my friend but have you looked at a balance sheet or income statement of a major US financial? When rates rise they are going to need bailouts???

Please explain how they are insolvent?

If rates rise they will be insolvent? Please explain?

Goodguy

 

[msog87]

I'm sorry my friend but have you looked at a balance sheet or income statement of a major US financial? When rates rise they are going to need bailouts???

Please explain how they are insolvent?

If rates rise they will be insolvent? Please explain?

Goodguy

they have toxic real estate assets etc, when rates rise the value of those assets will fall even more. the fed is keeping the banks alive, federal and state govts alive, and their friends on wall street. take the fed away and this whole phony economy crashes and they know it or they wouldnt be doing the extraordinary things they are doing. you can't own banks if the economy isnt healthy, the economy is on life support right now and its gonna end badly.

 

[goodguy1977]

they have toxic real estate assets etc, when rates rise the value of those assets will fall even more. the fed is keeping the banks alive, federal and state govts alive, and their friends on wall street. take the fed away and this whole phony economy crashes and they know it or they wouldnt be doing the extraordinary things they are doing. you can't own banks if the economy isnt healthy, the economy is on life support right now and its gonna end badly.

So let me guess my friend we should all buy small cap commodity companies? Even if rates rise? By the way that analysis on financials was horrible. I think the OP should take this as an example of why you need to take everything with a grain of salt on this site.

Goodguy

 

[msog87]

give you an idea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z4arsxrUIU

 

[msog87]

So let me guess my friend we should all buy small cap commodity companies? Even if rates rise? By the way that analysis on financials was horrible. I think the OP should take this as an example of why you need to take everything with a grain of salt on this site.

Goodguy

yes bc the fed is not going to raise rates ever. the only way rates will rise is if the world forces the fed to do it by causing a run on the dollar, which will happen as the world realizes the u.s will run trillion dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see and print money forever thus destroying the currency. the fed will have 2 choices: to either let rates spike collapsing the economy but saving the dollar, or they can print even more money and buy u.s. bonds yet create hyperinflation. either scenario is very bullish for gold bc the dollar will lose alot of value however you do have to have an exit strategy when the time comes. but u.s. banks? they are fucked no matter which way you slice it and to say my analysis on the banks was "horrible" is stupid, youre the guy who doesnt even seem to have a clue about what a banks balance sheet is and what it means for their health. we are in an age where central banks are actively trying to weaken their currency and where govts are running huge debts, so you need to own real things aka hard assets. I am also a big bull on agriculture for obvious reasons. the fact is u.s. manufacturing has been declining for years, household wealth is decline, 20 million americans are still unemployed or underemployed, more are going on food stamps, more are going on disability. the economy is getting worse not better.

 

[goodguy1977]

yes bc the fed is not going to raise rates ever. the only way rates will rise is if the world forces the fed to do it by causing a run on the dollar, which will happen as the world realizes the u.s will run trillion dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see and print money forever thus destroying the currency. the fed will have 2 choices: to either let rates spike collapsing the economy but saving the dollar, or they can print even more money and buy u.s. bonds yet create hyperinflation. either scenario is very bullish for gold bc the dollar will lose alot of value however you do have to have an exit strategy when the time comes. but u.s. banks? they are fucked no matter which way you slice it and to say my analysis on the banks was "horrible" is stupid, youre the guy who doesnt even seem to have a clue about what a banks balance sheet is and what it means for their health. we are in an age where central banks are actively trying to weaken their currency and where govts are running huge debts, so you need to own real things aka hard assets. I am also a big bull on agriculture for obvious reasons. the fact is u.s. manufacturing has been declining for years, household wealth is decline, 20 million americans are still unemployed or underemployed, more are going on food stamps, more are going on disability. the economy is getting worse not better.

My friend, i'm not going to debate this with you. I really hope you are not talking your book because if that is your book I feel very badly for you.

Goodguy

 

[msog87]

LOL, good luck getting an answer from MSOG. You really think MSOG can read and understand a balance sheet and income statement ? If he did how would he come to the conclusion "the u.s. banks are all insolvant."

I explained it in a nutshell already, The banks are loaded up with toxic assets. the only way the banks won;t go bankrupt is if the u.s. economy has a real recovery. Heres the thing, they will only have a real recovery if the fed does the exact opposite of what they are doing now. A severe depression has to happen and all the insolvent banks will die and the solvent banks will take over. After 4 years of this bs recovery I would think you guys would get it. Go ahead and buy u.s. banks and lose everything, when shitn hits the fan I will be here to say I told ya so. bank of america for example went from 55 to a dollar in a year, when the next crash happens this decade its going to zero. what the fed is doing now cannot continue indefinitely without hyperinflation.

 

[goodguy1977]

LOL, good luck getting an answer from MSOG. You really think MSOG can read and understand a balance sheet and income statement ? If he did how would he come to the conclusion "the u.s. banks are all insolvant."

I've given up on MSOG. Either he is just stating things to get a reaction out of people or he is the dumbest investor in history. Either way I have no time for members like him.

Goodguy

 

[Barca]

I've given up on MSOG. Either he is just stating things to get a reaction out of people or he is the dumbest investor in history. Either way I have no time for members like him.

Goodguy

:thumb:

As a 20 year professional trader at a major investment house, I can assure you the blatherings we have been reading are the sort of thing we feed on when we see "day traders" like that jumping into the market. In the poker world, the pros call them "donkeys". Warren Buffet he is not, and even WB isn't right every single time, we're supposed to believe this guy's directional bets aren't risky or potentially dangerous? Right...

 

[msog87]

Peter schiff cambridge house presentation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCM7Qj6W_wQ

 

[msog87]

simple....bank don't make money from etf's.

 

[msog87]

Something I can't quite figure out. Many Mutual Funds and ETFs offer the exact same exposure (in many cases the holdings and exposure of each are mirror images).

In many cases the only "difference" is that the ETFs are liquid like a stock (in or out in 8/10,000ths of a second, NYSE execution time average) and where the MER on the Mutual Fund may be a whopping 4% the corresponding ETF has a MER of 0.17%.

Why haven't these Mutual Funds died a natural death?

Is it because "Financial Advisers" keep putting their clients in them? And if so, how can they morally do that when the client can get the same exposure for so much less cost? Isn't this further proof that big bank or mainstream financial advisers are evil doe doe birds?

Would love to hear the "opinion" of a doe doe bird on this one (and any one else with an opinion)? Maybe such language can goat one of them to come back with a retort

ive been saying this in the business forum forever and apparently im crazy.

 

[Prophet]

Soros? Pento? Gold?

 

[blackrock13]

:thumb:

As a 20 year professional trader at a major investment house, I can assure you the blatherings we have been reading are the sort of thing we feed on when we see "day traders" like that jumping into the market. In the poker world, the pros call them "donkeys". Warren Buffet he is not, and even WB isn't right every single time, we're supposed to believe this guy's directional bets aren't risky or potentially dangerous? Right...

Gee, 20 years in the real world as opposed to barely out of school, hmmm.

I remember reading/hearing somewhere market timers had to be correct ~75%+ of the time just to match a classic passive approach in a similar risk portfolio.

 

[msog87]

this is all bc of money printing. when the easy money stops flowing stocks will tank hard. the market is long overdue for a correction, once more bad econ data comes out watch the market fall 20%. narc faber who predicted the 1987 crash among other things says he believes unless there is a correction soon there is a very high risk of a 1987 like crash happening this year the economy barely grew last quarter nothing has changed about the u.s. economy is still very sick. investors are believeing there is a real recovery now but they are in for a rude awakening

I may be in the minority (so what else is new?) but I think there is still lots of money to be made in U.S. banks, especially now that U.S. real estate is coming back from the dead.

the u.s. banks are only good for a trade, longterm you will lose everything. the housing market isnt recovering its all an illusion the fed is trying to reflate the housing bubble but things are much different now than back in 2002. Housing only makes up something like 5% of the u.s. economy btw. americans are still broke and out of work, the labour force participation rate fell back to its last post 2008 low of 63.5 last month more and more people are leaving the labour force.

im still touting gold stocks they are the real value in the market they are at 20 year lows. earnings have been largely great but investors have ignored them in favour of home builders and tech stocks as they believe the u.s. economy is recovering. Look at gdp growth and the labour market


this sums it all up

http://www.pentoport.com/mp3/MRC130313.mp3

if you own a junior miner you should only be scared if they are low on cash in the treasury and if they have no assets. gold may have finally bottomed since its held $1550ish support for the fourth time in 2 years. the only reason why gold stocks have been killed is the sheep believe the fed may soon tighten but anyone who understands whats going on knows the fed will never tighten. many of the gold stocks have already bottomed, if you look at the chart of wildcat silver it has strong support at 70 cents. at $28 silver the NAV of the company is 800 million and an IRR of 30% very strong. allana potash another resource stock I love has a NAV of 1.3 billion base3d on a very low potash price and an IRR of over 30%, itll be the cheapest potash mine to build and operate in the world this company is such a winner they are going to announce financing and begin construction in q2 ive scooped up many more shares its hovering longterm support at 46 cents its just mind boggling

 

[danmand]

With all the money being printed, commodities and land is the only safe investment. When there is a lot of apples, the price fall; When there is a lot of dollars, the price fall, i.e. the price of gold and commodities go up. There is a move on now from gold ETF's to physical gold.

 

[blackrock13]

this is all bc of money printing. when the easy money stops flowing stocks will tank hard. the market is long overdue for a correction, once more bad econ data comes out watch the market fall 20%. narc faber who predicted the 1987 crash among other things says he believes unless there is a correction soon there is a very high risk of a 1987 like crash happening this year the economy barely grew last quarter nothing has changed about the u.s. economy is still very sick. investors are believeing there is a real recovery now but they are in for a rude awakening

the u.s. banks are only good for a trade, longterm you will lose everything. the housing market isnt recovering its all an illusion the fed is trying to reflate the housing bubble but things are much different now than back in 2002. Housing only makes up something like 5% of the u.s. economy btw. americans are still broke and out of work, the labour force participation rate fell back to its last post 2008 low of 63.5 last month more and more people are leaving the labour force.

im still touting gold stocks they are the real value in the market they are at 20 year lows. earnings have been largely great but investors have ignored them in favour of home builders and tech stocks as they believe the u.s. economy is recovering. Look at gdp growth and the labour market


this sums it all up

http://www.pentoport.com/mp3/MRC130313.mp3

and the cat came back the very next day .........

Damn, but I'll let others critic your posts. yet i will say that you've raised all your points before and had your hat handed to you by many members. I wouldn't want you to think I was picking on you.

I'm guessing you didn't go to PDAC and actually talk to people in the industry.