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Kamala's CNN interview was a disaster!!

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WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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squeezer said:
Another note is women in general tend to vote more as a voting block compared to men who talk tough but don't show up to the polls and immigration is more of an issue men would bite on than women.
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Valcazar said:
From what I remember however, men are in general less consistent voters, so your core take away is probably correct in that the variation in male turnout might be more significant in terms of what the final result will be as different from what polls say.
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To clarify, I wasn't trying to draw any special attention to current polls other than it's a tight race. Perhaps the race hinges on this noted proclivity for men to not show up to vote.

If there is this as wide a gender gap as polling is picking up between Trump and Harris, Trump needs men to turnout to vote.
 
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Valcazar

Valcazar

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mandrill said:
I don't think anyone really expected Roe v Wade to be overturned. And when it was, the GOP had to walk the walk.
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Lots of people did.
Not the "savvy" people.
The conventional political wisdom among the "savvy" was that it would never happen.
The people actually on the ground and dealing with the legislative fights, though?
They kept saying it.

"The GOP (and/or Trump) won't really do the horrible things they say they want to do" has been something people have been using to make the GOP more palatable for decades.
There were even focus groups and so on where the people refused to believe that the GOP even SAID the things they said they wanted to do.

It's a mistake to think that way.
Believe them.
 
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Valcazar

Valcazar

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Bucktee said:
Such a lowlife to lie about working at McDonald's so that she can pretend to connect with working class voters.
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This weird obsession you all have that she lied about this and that it is horrible is so strange.
It's just one of those things that make people side-eye right wingers as goofy nutters.
 
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Valcazar

Valcazar

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WyattEarp said:
Yes, that's possible.

I actually laughed to myself because in my circles when there is a marital split it's usually the other way around. Liberal wives who are quite vocal about politics. The husband doesn't say much about it, but privately isn't as liberal as his wife. Doesn't necessarily mean he's voting for Trump, but is likely to be voting mostly Republican. This could be just my community and/or socioeconomic group.
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Absolutely.
It's a country of almost 350 million people.
I don't think anyone should trust their particular pocket of friends and acquaintances to be a good snapshot of the electorate as a whole.

Obviously whether one is vocal about their choice this election, it's still just one vote. The less committed and less vocal voter also gets one vote. Now I say this because my personal social media reflects a world where some of my friends both left and right think they are political influencers. They will preach politics every day and all day now until November 5 and likely after that.
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This is something lots of people have LOTS of trouble with.
Remember how Sanders supporters were convinced his rallies being big meant he obviously had more support?
Trump in 2020 same thing.

Enthusiasm matters, sure, but an unenthusiastic vote counts the same as an enthusiastic one.
Lots of people haven't internalized that.
 
Valcazar

Valcazar

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WyattEarp said:
Yes, the split electorate was my point. I was also highlighting that even Obama had a difficult time breaking out.

My opinion is Trump lost 2020 more than Biden went out and fought for the victory. It was a very strange and unusual election. I would go as far as to say the 2020 election might have contributed to Harris taking awhile to find a rhythm this year. She's not as talented an orator as Obama and she has to campaign much harder than 2020.
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The 2020 election was odd due to COVID but I do think it follows more the 2008 model of people wanting the incumbent gone. Now, Obama was also pretty charismatic and it still only got him so much, as we said.

As for Harris, I don't think she is as good as Obama (but then he and Bill Clinton were both - despite their faults - VERY good campaigners) but she is pretty solid.
I think the short ramp up is also a major reason for her campaign feeling much different. Normally that whole "finding a rhythm" thing would have happened in late 2023, early 2024 so it wouldn't really get noticed.
She didn't have that luxury here.
 
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WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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Valcazar said:
Enthusiasm matters, sure, but an unenthusiastic vote counts the same as an enthusiastic one.
Lots of people haven't internalized that.
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How much does a Canadian vote count on November 5? ;)
 
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Valcazar

Valcazar

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PeteOsborne said:
Don't forget, Clinton beat Trump by 2.9 million votes in 2016 and still lost.
The electoral and popular vote are 2 different animals.
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I don't think anyone has forgotten that.
I'm not sure even Trump's supporters have argued much that he would win the popular vote.
They've long since abandoned that as being reflective of any legitimacy.

I really wish Kerry had won Ohio in 2004.
We would almost certainly be rid of the electoral college by now if he had.
 
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Phil C. McNasty

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squeezer said:
You hear it from a General who served under Trump and you believe John Kelly is lying to help the Dems?
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He is absolutely lying, or took what Trump said out of context.
Kelly is a prefect example of a former disgruntled employee
 
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squeezer

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Phil C. McNasty said:
He is absolutely lying, or took what Trump said out of context.
Kelly is a prefect example of a former disgruntled employee
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Sure he is, LMFAO! He was and is a hardcore Republican.

What about

Mike Pence, Bill Barr, James Mattis, Mark Esper, Mark Milley, Rex Tillerson, Chris Christie,John Bolton, Mick Mulvaney, Anthony Scaramucci, Betsy Davos, Alyssa Griffin, and Cassidy Hutchinson just to name a few and I am sure I've missed a lot.

All Republicans all terrified at the thought of Trump getting back in, except for Bill Barr who admits Trump is a moron and an idiot but cannot get out of voting Republican.
 
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