Kamala's CNN interview was a disaster!!
- Thread starter mitchell76
- Start date
I don't think that's my bad. You were responding directly to my words without any indication of a pivot.
From my personal experience, it's hard to switch gears like that without a clear segue.
Mitchy, how bout you give this post one of those astonished emojis.
(See how I made the transition Squeeze.)
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I don't think anyone really expected Roe v Wade to be overturned. And when it was, the GOP had to walk the walk.
Such a lowlife to lie about working at McDonald's so that she can pretend to connect with working class voters.
It's really hard to say.
So much - (SO MUCH) - of what polls report is based on the weighting model. There is an excellent article from a few year ago by Nate Cohn on this, where he sent the same raw data to 4 pollsters to see what they would do and the range of results was considerable since they had very different weighting methods.
Your impression about women supporting Harris being forthcoming is your personal experience. Is it true? No idea.
There are lots of reports by people of women in more conservative regions or with conservative husbands being more coy. (There is a whole campaign reminding women that their vote is secret and their husband doesn't have to know who you voted for.) So at least some people think there is some uncertainty about counting them.
From what I remember however, men are in general less consistent voters, so your core take away is probably correct in that the variation in male turnout might be more significant in terms of what the final result will be as different from what polls say.
Reminds me of this:
"It was the summer of 1957, and the polling firm Gallup has then-federal opposition leader John Diefenbaker’s Conservatives trailing the governing Liberals — badly.
Reporters told him the polls gave him no chance of winning the general election that was only days away.
“I’ve always been fond of dogs, and they are the one animal that knows the proper treatment to give to poles.’” Diefenbaker replied, using a little word play to dismiss the validity of polls.
This view was given credence on Election Day, when he and his party sailed to victory."
https://www.thestar.com/politics/fe...cle_965957a6-2a7d-5054-b171-13ed3f3e5de7.html
Obama was an excellent orator.
He also benefited from just how sick of George W Bush people were.
He got 53% of the vote. (just shy of)
In 2012, it went down to 51%.
As someone already pointed out, Biden got 51% as well.
Bush II got just under 51 in 2004.
He got less than 50 in 2000.
Clinton got 49 in 1996 and 43 in 1992 (Perot ran in both of those and outperformed normal 3rd candidate numbers)
Bush I got 53 %.
You have to go back to Reagan to get over 55.
It's been a split electorate for a very long time now.
Yes, that's possible.
I actually laughed to myself because in my circles when there is a marital split it's usually the other way around. Liberal wives who are quite vocal about politics. The husband doesn't say much about it, but privately isn't as liberal as his wife. Doesn't necessarily mean he's voting for Trump, but is likely to be voting mostly Republican. This could be just my community and/or socioeconomic group.
Obviously whether one is vocal about their choice this election, it's still just one vote. The less committed and less vocal voter also gets one vote. Now I say this because my personal social media reflects a world where some of my friends both left and right think they are political influencers. They will preach politics every day and all day now until November 5 and likely after that.
Yes, the split electorate was my point. I was also highlighting that even Obama had a difficult time breaking out.
My opinion is Trump lost 2020 more than Biden went out and fought for the victory. It was a very strange and unusual election. I would go as far as to say the 2020 election might have contributed to Harris taking awhile to find a rhythm this year. She's not as talented an orator as Obama and she has to campaign much harder than 2020.
To clarify, I wasn't trying to draw any special attention to current polls other than it's a tight race. Perhaps the race hinges on this noted proclivity for men to not show up to vote.
If there is this as wide a gender gap as polling is picking up between Trump and Harris, Trump needs men to turnout to vote.
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Lots of people did.
Not the "savvy" people.
The conventional political wisdom among the "savvy" was that it would never happen.
The people actually on the ground and dealing with the legislative fights, though?
They kept saying it.
"The GOP (and/or Trump) won't really do the horrible things they say they want to do" has been something people have been using to make the GOP more palatable for decades.
There were even focus groups and so on where the people refused to believe that the GOP even SAID the things they said they wanted to do.
It's a mistake to think that way.
Believe them.
This weird obsession you all have that she lied about this and that it is horrible is so strange.
It's just one of those things that make people side-eye right wingers as goofy nutters.
Absolutely.
It's a country of almost 350 million people.
I don't think anyone should trust their particular pocket of friends and acquaintances to be a good snapshot of the electorate as a whole.
This is something lots of people have LOTS of trouble with.
Remember how Sanders supporters were convinced his rallies being big meant he obviously had more support?
Trump in 2020 same thing.
Enthusiasm matters, sure, but an unenthusiastic vote counts the same as an enthusiastic one.
Lots of people haven't internalized that.
The 2020 election was odd due to COVID but I do think it follows more the 2008 model of people wanting the incumbent gone. Now, Obama was also pretty charismatic and it still only got him so much, as we said.
As for Harris, I don't think she is as good as Obama (but then he and Bill Clinton were both - despite their faults - VERY good campaigners) but she is pretty solid.
I think the short ramp up is also a major reason for her campaign feeling much different. Normally that whole "finding a rhythm" thing would have happened in late 2023, early 2024 so it wouldn't really get noticed.
She didn't have that luxury here.
