Hurricanes...

[jalimon]

That really sucks bro, but I have yet to hear a good explanation why from 2007 to 2015 no category 3 or higher hurricane hit Florida, when all the global warming faithers told us hurricanes would increase in size and frequency. That didnt happen within that time frame, even though the "experts" claimed earth kept getting hotter

All I know is that the ocean are warmer. Which can only leads to more hurricanes.

I have been going to all over the caribbean since 1995 (mexico, barbados, republican dominica, cuba, guadeloupe, martinique, jamaica, aruba...) and only since 2017 I noticed the heavy presence of Sargassum seaweeds. It's now really bad. I mean I saw up to a foot of weeds on the beach that took 2-3 days to get rid of.

Those seaweeds are present in a 400-kilometer square above Brazil and were a natural ocean filter. Deforestation in Brazil, combined with warmer water, made those weeds detach. As simple as that.

This is a combination of climate change (which happens whatever we humans do) combined with human impact (deforestation and use of chemicals)...

We human are accelerating climate change and we now need to be ready to make choices that will impact our lives.

Anyhow you can be sure the insurer will make the impact for us if we don't...

 

[massman]

Okay, so lets looks at the historical data of Atlantic hurricanes. I only see a very slight increase.
Certainly not statistically significant, nor is it any evidence that humans are responsible for that slight increase

Have you done the statistics? And that graph shows about a 20% increase as I look at it.

Oceans are warmer. That is a fact. Hurricanes cannot form below a certain surface temperature (~79°). That is a fact. If you look at the average surface temps across a year, a small increase of 0.5-1° will push more of the curve (maybe as much as a month) above that threshold, thus extending the potential season by that long.

As someone else wisely said, I’m not going going to argue causes of climate change here. It’s pointless, maybe more pointless than arguing politics. But the seas are warmer, therefore we will have more hurricanes and more severe ones. The bad thing about it is that as things warm, the rate of warming increases (exponentially). We will need to get used to it.

 

[massman]

Then you must dislike this thread, because OP is claiming exactly that.
He claims 2 major Florida hurricanes in 1 year is proof of human made global warming.
(actually he said 3 major hurricanes, so I had to correct him)

If you want to quote me to prove your point, at least include the entire quote.

“I dislike it when someone looks at one weather event (or even one bad year) and says “See? Look what global warming is doing???!!” Just as I dislike when someone says “Look at all the snow today, those climate change people are such dumbasses”. But there is an increase in these severe weather events as the oceans become warmer.”

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

“I dislike it when someone looks at one weather event (or even one bad year) and says “See? Look what global warming is doing???!!” Just as I dislike when someone says “Look at all the snow today, those climate change people are such dumbasses”. But there is an increase in these severe weather events as the oceans become warmer.”

Yeah, you said that already.

FYI twelve years of no major hurricanes in Florida is not just a bad year, its a lot more than that.
12 years becomes statistically significant.
I have still yet to hear a good explanation why there were no major hurricanes from 2005 to 2017

As someone else wisely said, I’m not going going to argue causes of climate change here. It’s pointless, maybe more pointless than arguing politics

And yet here you are doing just that

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

We human are accelerating climate change and we now need to be ready to make choices that will impact our lives

Without googling, do you know how many years of oil we have left before it runs out?

 

[jalimon]

Without googling, do you know how many years of oil we have left before it runs out?

I don't really know. On top of my head with current population maybe 500 years?

But we need to find alternative and change our way of life. And if we get to be 15 billions on the planet one day that 500 years (which I kind of pull out on the top of my head) could be reduced in half.

 

[massman]

Yeah, you said that already.

FYI twelve years of no major hurricanes in Florida is not just a bad year, its a lot more than that.
12 years becomes statistically significant.
I have still yet to hear a good explanation why there were no major hurricanes from 2005 to 2017


And yet here you are doing just that

Lol. Fair point.

I think we all should be able to agree that for whatever reason the oceans are warming (there is data showing this) and if hurricanes (anywhere, not just in FL) depend on warm water to form, there
will be more hurricanes.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Lol. Fair point.

I think we all should be able to agree that for whatever reason the oceans are warming (there is data showing this) and if hurricanes (anywhere, not just in FL) depend on warm water to form, there
will be more hurricanes

Just so we're clear, I've never denied the Earth is warming up a bit. I just think the whole thing is overblown. The North Pole and South Pole aren't going to melt anytime soon. Yes there will be some minor climate change, but I think it will be manageable

 

[jalimon]

Lol. Fair point.

I think we all should be able to agree that for whatever reason the oceans are warming (there is data showing this) and if hurricanes (anywhere, not just in FL) depend on warm water to form, there
will be more hurricanes.

Scientists never saw a hurricane go from category 2 to 5 in such a short time as Milton did 2 days ago.

It will, hopefully, die down to category 2 or 3 as it hits land. Maybe Cat 1 which would be best.

p.s. my uncle in Naples has already 2 inches of water all around his house But still not flooded... He is the same age as my father, 83, and fighting this.

 

[jalimon]

By the way did you know a hurricane severity factor in Florida is when Waffle House shuts down their units or not!

Crazy to think about this.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I don't really know. On top of my head with current population maybe 500 years?

Oil will run out in about 30 to 50 years.

So we will have no choice but to switch to other fuel alternatives whether Earth is warming up or not

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

It will, hopefully, die down to category 2 or 3 as it hits land. Maybe Cat 1 which would be best

Its been downgraded to a Cat3. Landfall around 8pm tonight

 

[hamermill]

Stupid directionally change hurricane don’t know they are supposed to head towards Mar la go.

 

[Patron]

By the way did you know a hurricane severity factor in Florida is when Waffle House shuts down their units or not!

Crazy to think about this.

People have to eat, including first responders and TV weather people from all over the country who get sent by asshole bosses to report on the hurricane.

It is actually very comforting in all but the most life-threatening weather, or on holidays, that you always know you can go eat at Waffle House. They are like family to many. It is the place where they have to take you in if you show up.

That is why you know you are fucked if the Waffle House closes.

Their $11.99 big breakfast is still one of the best deals in the country. A waffle that they will usually put pecans or chocolate chips or fruit in for no additional charge, grits, toast, eggs, and bacon or sausage or ham. It symbolizes the United States to many of us, the way pancakes with genuine maple syrup is quintessentially Canadian.

There are always guys at the “bar” seating area flirting with the waitress. I am sometimes one of them. I have always contemplated ordering Avacado Toast at the “bar” just to see everyone’s reaction before assuring them I am just kidding.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Made landfall in Sarasota area just now.
I spent many years on spring break there

 

[The Oracle]

A friend of mine took this and sent it to me today...That would scare the crap out of me.

 

[shack]

View attachment 366297

A friend of mine took this and sent it to me today...That would scare the crap out of me.

"But how can you live in Canada? It's so cold up there."

Fuck'n eh I can, without my life being torn asunder in a matter of seconds. I put on a coat.

 

[JeanGary Diablo]

"But how can you live in Canada? It's so cold up there."

Fuck'n eh I can, without my life being torn asunder in a matter of seconds. I put on a coat.

Exactly this. I spent years living in Winnipeg, where there would literally be days in January and February where the temps would be -70C with the wind-chill factor, and I would STILL rather live there than in Florida where you have to deal with sweltering heat and humidity, hurricanes and tornadoes that will destroy your entire livelihood in a matter of seconds, and, of course, Florida Man.

 

[jalimon]

Made landfall in Sarasota area just now.
I spent many years on spring break there

Sad Sarasota is such a nice area. Best beaches are on the west coast. I spent many spring break towards Destin further west. Full white sand beaches.

My father finally reached my uncle in Naples. Street still flooded but he's all fine. And his house all good. He usually wake up at 5am so my father got scared but it seems my uncle overdid the rhum to ride the storm yesterday

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Sad Sarasota is such a nice area. Best beaches are on the west coast. I spent many spring break towards Destin further west. Full white sand beaches

For sure! My parents owned a house right on Siesta Key by the beach.
Loved it there. It was a sad day when they sold the house