Housing price drop?

[wazup]

After some bad investments, all of my net worth is in my house. I've been worried about this for a while with covid and many landlords not receiving rent and people possibly defaulting. It has to pop sometime. Anyone else worried about this?

A 30 per cent plus drop would be abysmal for me. It's not about timing the market, it's about worst case scenario. Any thoughts? Oddly enough cmhc came out today with a warning.

I believe there was an article in the last day or 2 about residential vacancy rates at an all time high in Toronto. Also the fact that work at home may be permanent for some. Not good for commercial real estate.

 

[Fun For All]

30% drop? In housing values? I can't imagine where that would be...

 

[stinkynuts]

After some bad investments, all of my net worth is in my house. I've been worried about this for a while with covid and many landlords not receiving rent and people possibly defaulting. It has to pop sometime. Anyone else worried about this?

A 30 per cent plus drop would be abysmal for me. It's not about timing the market, it's about worst case scenario. Any thoughts? Oddly enough cmhc came out today with a warning.

I believe there was an article in the last day or 2 about residential vacancy rates at an all time high in Toronto. Also the fact that work at home may be permanent for some. Not good for commercial real estate.

Even if there is a huge drop in housing prices, it shouldn't really affect you unless you plan to seel your house in the near future. The price will rebound eventually, whether it's in one or five, or ten years.

 

[wazup]

Right now everybody is counting on the vaccine to fix all this and Quebec just put a halt to their vaccines or a closer watch on them. If there is another lockdown this summer, this whole thing explodes imo or implodes.

 

[fifthgrader]

Right now everybody is counting on the vaccine to fix all this and Quebec just put a halt to their vaccines or a closer watch on them. If there is another lockdown this summer, this whole thing explodes imo or implodes.

Don't be so negative.

House is not an asset until you start to make cashflows out of it. Don't worry about selling now if your circumstances allowed since everything is unstable. However, you can utilize your house by renting out a part of it (yeah I know covid).

Stinkynuts had it right.Housing always rebounds in the long term.

On the other hand, I have invested in a few index funds since 2015 and they experienced an overall increase despite covid. I simply just put 0.5 - 1k every month into them. It goes ups and downs but it has always been an upward trend. Conservative but no heart attacks.

 

[wazup]

The problem is my circumstances aren't great for it. Even a 5 or 7 year recovery is too long. With all the businesses closed temporarily or permanently, who is paying rent. If this drags into the summer which looks very possible. I don't like the outcome.

 

[jalimon]

My feeling is the suburb housing market might probably be the only thing standing still.

Downtown will definitely see some price drop. Montreal is at 6% occupancy right now. It was from 0 to 3 since 2001. I have a commercial unit in Montreal which I am worry about short term but I will hang on for a few years. Hopefully this will not drag on for more then 5 year at the most.

 

[boomcyb]

Once the recovery comes the bottom will fall out in the burbs

 

[angrymime666]

the prime lending rate is at all time lows and if I remember correctly the boc doesnt plan to increase the prime rate till 2023. cheap interest rate equals more people able to afford to buy a home since they can afford it at current rates. if the rates go up less people will be able to afford purchasing a new home. the housing market is at a high currently.

I dont fore see a crash till a significant prime increase. as far as covid, the worse has passed. banks appeared to have weathered the shut down. hell even with interest deferrals they took a hit for the 6 mths but they will get that money down the road. banks are still generating a profit especially since the government bought some of the debt they had as mortgages. this allowed them to be able to lend out more money for homes.

 

[wazup]

the prime lending rate is at all time lows and if I remember correctly the boc doesnt plan to increase the prime rate till 2023. cheap interest rate equals more people able to afford to buy a home since they can afford it at current rates. if the rates go up less people will be able to afford purchasing a new home. the housing market is at a high currently.

I dont fore see a crash till a significant prime increase. as far as covid, the worse has passed. banks appeared to have weathered the shut down. hell even with interest deferrals they took a hit for the 6 mths but they will get that money down the road. banks are still generating a profit especially since the government bought some of the debt they had as mortgages. this allowed them to be able to lend out more money for homes.

I disagree with the worst has passed part. The vaccines looks like the only way out whether you're a denier or a believer in the virus. One major backstep in the vaccines and it will get ugly imo. I'm talking people losing their minds this summer. That's my worst case scenario.

 

[anon1]

30% drop? In housing values? I can't imagine where that would be...

CMHC: Home prices could fall 47.9% in worst case scenario without government help

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough and with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario. The scenario is a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Fun For All]

CMHC: Home prices could fall 47.9% in worst case scenario without government help

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough and with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario. The scenario is a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

I live in London...it's a sellers market for 2021.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-ontario-real-estate-2021-1.5852898

 

[wazup]

I live in London...it's a sellers market for 2021.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-ontario-real-estate-2021-1.5852898

I saw you on Dundas st, I didn't have any change on me that day, sorry.

 

[shack]

CMHC: Home prices could fall 47.9% in worst case scenario without government help

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough and with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario. The scenario is a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

That is for all of Canada and probably nobody would say that the Toronto market is the same as for the rest of the country.

 

[Fun For All]

I saw you on Dundas st, I didn't have any change on me that day, sorry.

I'm doing fine, thanks!

By the sounds of it, you're going to need a better area to panhandle in...sell that Gremlin if money is getting tight.

 

[waynec]

i dont see the resi prices dropping in 2021. may even increase given the extremely low interest rate environment. even with slowing immigration due to the pandemic, i dont see prices dropping. i have a coworker looking for a house now in milton, burlington or oakville and he told me he run into multiple pricing wars on most of them.

 

[oakvilleguy]

i dont see the resi prices dropping in 2021. may even increase given the extremely low interest rate environment. even with slowing immigration due to the pandemic, i dont see prices dropping. i have a coworker looking for a house now in milton, burlington or oakville and he told me he run into multiple pricing wars on most of them.

I’m seeing multiple offers. One client bidding against 38 others. In another situation, 28 offers. Prices will go up another 10% this year.

 

[oakvilleguy]

The clowns also said prices will drop 9-18% in 2020. Prices were actual up 10%

2020 Housing Market Outlook — Special Edition

Outside of Quebec, the national trend in housing starts increased in April, despite the impact of COVID-19 containment measures.

www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Several Canadian Economists Say CMHC Housing Market Forecast 'No Longer Relevant'

Several Canadian economists say they don't believe the Canadian property market will fall as far as initially forecast for this year.

torontostoreys.com

 

[einar]

Wazup, plenty of people wonder when the Toronto house market may drop significantly. It has already started to drop with downtown condos. But I am confused as to why this should matter to you. Are you mortgaged and you will need to refinance to tap into equity? That would be an issue if your house drops in appraised value. Were you hoping to leapfrog from a small home to a larger one, both in the GTA? That could be an issue. Is your home a small downtown condo? That could make you feel stuck.

But in general as others have suggested, if you just live your life, and stay in a Toronto home that presumably you can afford, then what is the issue? Its value does not really matter.

If I reread your short post, however, it seems as if perhaps what concerns you more than your home is commercial real estate. That is a different discussion - and a more worrisome one.

 

[HEYHEY]

People in canada think its different here and it will never happen.
It will, only a matter of time.
When that might by and by how much ?
No one knows