Housing and Condos are going to crash

[Phil C. McNasty]

What worries me is the whole economy is gonna collapse, and Trudeau (and Trump) will never be able to bullshit their way out of this. Its gonna be a 1930 type collapse, and there's no way out of this as far as I can see!!

 

[escortsxxx]

What worries me is the whole economy is gonna collapse, and Trudeau (and Trump) will never be able to bullshit their way out of this. Its gonna be a 1930 type collapse, and there's no way out of this as far as I can see!!

I am surprised you so Optimistic. Well if we get off that easy I be surprised.

 

[jcpro]

They aren't going to reopen. Between bailout money (Sheldon Addison remember him) and that the occupancy rates won't cover costs until a vaccine is available.

Remember that even if they open international travel is fucked. Would you quarenteen for 2 weeks for a weekend in Vegas?

And how many will be able to afford to go? And why would they.....

No shows, no sports gambling, let alone handling chips and cash.

Never bet against the human nature.

 

[jcpro]

The expansion of the money supply the last ten years hasn't been inflationary for a variety of reasons. The article referenced above hit on one of them demographics. There are other major factors.

I don't think pumping money into the economy for several months is going to cause inflation. In fact, I think there will be deflationary pressures that will scare us.

Phil's right. The longer this goes on the more likely inflation will become. You can't pay people to stay home forever and lower output while doing it.

The threat of inflation is very real and likely. And the cure will be high interest rate(or as we used to call them- normal interest rates. Unless they jump to 20%+. Not unprecedented, btw). That will surely spike the RE market.

 

[Spunky1]

What do you think will happen to the pre construction condos on the market? Will they be sold off at deep discounts?
There are countless sites around the gta at different stages of completion.

 

[wonkyknee]

It’s been my experience over the past 20 yrs that the naysayers who scream a crash is coming are the same people who want to keep you out of the market.

I bought a fixer upper that needed a lot of work around landsdowne & bloor in 2008 for 180k. Put 40k into it and still live there but it’s worth north of 1 million now. Fully detached and the neighborhood just got better o er the past 12 yrs.

Don’t listen to the bubble and crash people

US bank stocks did double digit rates of returns for 15 years before the financial crisis and yet they dropped 70-80%. Why do people give some dumb examples of the past as some obvious conclusion to what lies in the future. Equity markets of all kinds go up and down. Toronto real estate is pretty solid. Canadian bank stocks have been a terrible investment for 3-5 years, and people have lived wonderfully off their returns for the previous 20 years. Things go down sometimes. Some times they go down a lot. Lots of head winds coming for real estate. Its a lagging indicator of the economy. All I hear is people losing their businesses and employees losing jobs for quite some time and $2000 a month is so people don't starve. its not going to make it easy for unemployed people to keep their homes, or their investment properties or their Airbnb properties. Sometimes the market goes bad for awhile and the last time it lasted 13 years. Even if its down for 2-3 years its still down. Much of the GTA saw lower prices 3 years ago and earlier this year they were back? If they drop again, for 2-3 years then the market overview will be bad for 6-7 years total. Not so great? but that's life. why do we want higher cost of living anyway?

 

[Butler1000]

What do you think will happen to the pre construction condos on the market? Will they be sold off at deep discounts?
There are countless sites around the gta at different stages of completion.

They can't build until it's at least 80% sold. They will either get there or sit on the project until they can build.

The ones being built now will continue.

 

[Butler1000]

Never bet against the human nature.

As I said. It's about volume. Unless they can model decent volume the resort's can't afford to run.

And with travel restrictions in place until both domestic and foreign govt's lift them they won't have a choice.

Then the limitations will keep people home.

I really want to go in the fall, but I won't book if it looks remotely bad. I think I'm fine with international travel until a vaccine is available.

Watch as vaccination records become mandatory documents coming up.

 

[Butler1000]

What worries me is the whole economy is gonna collapse, and Trudeau (and Trump) will never be able to bullshit their way out of this. Its gonna be a 1930 type collapse, and there's no way out of this as far as I can see!!

Different world. Different economics. Different employment model.

Trying to define this is really f'n difficult.

I personally think they are planning to open things mid June. With announcements for a rolling open schedule being introduced in mid May

They need time to get enough PPE out to service workers. Once the manufacturering is up to par to make it commercially available things will open.

Then you will see as well more curbside pickup, and limited interaction rules. But it will open things up.

 

[jcpro]

As I said. It's about volume. Unless they can model decent volume the resort's can't afford to run.

And with travel restrictions in place until both domestic and foreign govt's lift them they won't have a choice.

Then the limitations will keep people home.

I really want to go in the fall, but I won't book if it looks remotely bad. I think I'm fine with international travel until a vaccine is available.

Watch as vaccination records become mandatory documents coming up.

There will be no vaccine, not in a foreseeable future, anyway. When the weather turns and it gets dry and warm, the virus will disappear.

 

[drewstar]

Volumes are down but condo prices have gone up. Especially of the more common units such as bachelor units, etc. With guaranteed inflation because of all the money bring printed out, housing markets are predicted by many seasoned industry professionals to eventually go up more than before even. Cheers.

 

[Darts]

When it comes to real estate you can be right about the long term but get killed in the short term. Just ask the Reichmans and their ill fated Canary Wharf venture.

I think commercial real estate will take a hit as Amazon takes over the world and more and more people work from home.

 

[sp free]

I hope the housing bubble bursts so I can finally buy a fucking house.

 

[SchlongConery]

There will be no vaccine, not in a foreseeable future, anyway. When the weather turns and it gets dry and warm, the virus will disappear.

"Intelligent individuals learn from every thing and every one; average people, from their experiences. The stupid already have all the answers."

-Socrates

 

[Smallcock]

Condo Developer Brad Lamb Calls Out Government Response to COVID-19

Like most Canadians and citizens of the world, I am accepting our government’s current version of the best response to COVID-19. I am, however, becoming less satisfied as I watch the world melt away in an unprecedented loss of wealth, business, and employment. The damage to our world as a result of these forced measures will be devastating. Alcoholism, drug addiction, spousal abuse, child abuse, suicide, depression and other mental health issues are massively on the rise. Poverty and an inability to pay monthly bills is also soaring. The stress on everyone is becoming unmanageable. It is possible that the toll that the government exacts from its citizens to fight this virus will exceed the damage caused by the virus itself. In effect, we have two pandemics: COVID-19 and an economic depression (along with the deaths and misery that come with the latter). We will need to deal with both.

New American models put the United States at a revised estimate of up to 60,000 COVID-19 deaths. The Canadian model currently estimates 11,000-22,000 deaths. The estimate for Canada appears to be high based upon the assumption that both countries are in approximate lock step with the maturity of the virus. The U.S. is tracking 23,000 deaths currently and Canada is at 767 (as of April 14). I wouldn’t be surprised if in a week the Canadian estimate of 11,000-22,000 gets reduced substantially as new models arise as a result of new data.

Keep in mind, we were all told that the objective of the extreme emergency measures being imposed (i.e. – almost complete commercial shutdown and home quarantining) was to ‘flatten the curve.’ This was clearly communicated as the only way to keep the medical system (specifically our hospitals) from being overloaded and allowing people to get the necessary treatment in order to survive. The goal was NOT to reduce our infection rate to ZERO before lifting the personal and economic restrictions.

By all accounts, in both the U.S. and Canada, the use of intensive care facilities and ventilator usage is well below the doomsday scenario of 30 days ago. In fact, in most regions, we are through the surge and hospitalizations are falling. My understanding is that hospitals here in Canada and, in the U.S., have more capacity than they need for beds and ventilators. According to a Globe and Mail article published on April 13, in Alberta, as of April 11, only 13 patients were in hospital intensive care for the treatment of Covid-19. Even in Ontario, which has struggled with low testing rates and outbreaks at long term care homes, hospitals are not being overrun with Covid-19 cases. As of April 11, official Ontario statistics show that nearly 80% of the Ontario ventilators are not being used. In other words, there is plenty of patient capacity. It looks like we have accomplished what we have been asked to do. We pushed the infections and admissions down the road, so the hospitals did not get overloaded. We know and have been told that hiding from COVID-19 isn’t a medium or long-term solution. It is going to run its course. We will have to gain herd immunity as a community. Waiting in isolation for the infection rate to hit zero or for a miracle vaccine or cure was not the plan 30 days ago. This is a new narrative. We were told we just need to flatten the curve. This was to allow the most vulnerable an opportunity to be treated in hospital. This has been accomplished. Comparing COVID-19 impacts on mortality with other deadly causes in Canada is displayed below (as deaths per year).

CAUSE OF DEATH DEATHS PER YEAR

Suicide 4,200

Flu 8,500

Accidental Deaths 13,300

Accidental Drug Overdoses 14,500

Heart Disease 50,000

Cancer 83,000

Alcohol-related Deaths 88,000

Every cause of death should be treated with equal importance, and if 5,000 people die from COVID-19 this year, it will be tragic. It is also tragic that 14,000 people die from drug overdoses as well. We do not quarantine the country to prevent opioid overdoses. 88,000 people die from alcohol-related incidents. Interestingly, the LCBO is an ‘essential service’ in this time of quarantine and pandemic. We absolutely need to be better at protecting the ‘at risk’ population, but this is not everyone; it is possibly 1-2% of the population.

If we had an option to self-isolate for many months, we could look at that, but we do not. More people may die in Canada due to the quarantine that due to the virus. On average, Canadians save $160/month. One third of Canadians have no savings. Many millions in Canada literally live paycheque to paycheque. Deaths from the 7 causes above will definitely increase as a result of the quarantine. Every week of quarantine will carry a cost.

The Federal budget deficit is going from a bloated $16B in 2019 to an astounding, unbelievable number of $180B in 2020. This is a just an early estimate and the final tally will likely be much higher. The deficit during the ‘great recession’ of 2009 was approximately $50B to put this in perspective. Our cumulative debt as a 153-year-old nation is about $750B pre-COVID-19 (in one year we will add another $180B). Who exactly is being helped by this monster deficit? Well, I can tell you my companies are not being helped. I have talked to dozens of other small and medium sized business owners and they aren’t getting any meaningful help either. Getting any answers from any level of government is impossible. I am dubious that any of the largesse will really help people. I am sure that abuses from fraudulent claims will occur in large numbers. Are unemployed workers really getting the help they need, and if so, for how long? It seems to me that a better path might have been advisable. For instance, if the elderly and infirm had self- isolated starting in January and masks had been issued to everyone else with an instruction to maintain a reasonable physical distance, could we have avoided the shut down?

Well, Taiwan and Sweden did just that and they avoided an economic shutdown and personal quarantine. Obviously, trusting people to stay at a safe distance and using masks work. Why did the government not trust us to do it this way? Were we lied to about this? $180B buys a lot of masks and ventilators. Why wasn’t the quarantining of compromised individuals initiated when we knew about the risk for these people? Why did all levels of government and experts sit on this until the only response was a world-wide depression initiated by a coordinated shutdown and quarantine? For those who do not know, in the 1930’s we had what was is known as the “Great Depression.” It was a horrendous time – just ask your grandparents and they will shudder at the memory of the misery. Violence, murder, lawlessness, and suicide was epidemic. Unemployment peaked at 25%, GDP declined by 30%. On a world-wide basis, very few are now working. It is very likely that Canada and the U.S. will see unemployment at levels higher than 25% and GDP will likely fall more than 30%. This happened overnight. The Great Depression rolled on for years to hit those numbers. The misery from this will be epic. The tax base for government spending is going to be greatly reduced, likely to 50% of a typical year. Where will they get all this helicopter money?

So, what do we do? We must demand honesty from our leaders. For instance, why are they comfortable publishing death/mortality models but they won’t publish honest infection models? Why aren’t the statistics of infection and death not published by age category and whether the person had an underlying illness? Is it because we would learn that the infection is not deadly for the vast majority of those infected and this would undermine the government’s message that the only solution is totally economic shutdown and self-isolation for EVERYONE? They seem content to scare the shit out of the population with ‘honest’ death rates (which by all accounts are proving to be less than initially thought). Why will they not release the TRUE infection models? No one can believe that just 26,000 people have been infected in Canada. This number is absurd.

In a random test, it has been reported that as much as 70% of the Lombardy province of Italy has been infected with COVID-19. There are 10 million people in Lombardy. So, 7 million people by way of this study could reasonably be infected in Lombardy, with perhaps 9,000 fatalities. Admittedly, 7 million is probably too high, but it does create food for thought. The fact is we do not know because no one will tell us.

The Italian government’s tests confirm 160,000 people are infected and sadly, 21,000 are dead. This is for the whole of Italy. Is it possible that tens of millions of Italians are infected with 21,000 dead? Do we want to know this? I think we do. A significantly lower death rate will likely change our response. Already the models in the U.S. are being adjusted down. World-wide mortality rates range from 1% to 10% based on tested individuals. What if the mortality rate is 1/10th, 1/20th, or 1/100th of the published mortality rates? What if COVID-19 is similar to the seasonal flu based on mortality rates and overall expected deaths?

I think we need to demand to see the truth about the models of those infected. We need to see an estimate at how many Canadians have this virus NOW! We must quickly test millions of people without symptoms to understand the real model. It could be that several million Canadians are already infected and cured. Many people that become infected have none or very slight symptoms. Many millions of people may be immune. Why are the immune in quarantine? We should isolate those at high risk and allow all immune and low-risk people back to work and re-open our economy. Before you ask me to continue to help drive our civilization to ruin, I want answers, I want the truth, and I want it now.

If you like this, please share it. We need our government to take action now before it is too late. All our lives are at stake.

Brad J. Lamb

https://torontostoreys.com/brad-lamb-covid-19-article/

 

[Butler1000]

There will be no vaccine, not in a foreseeable future, anyway. When the weather turns and it gets dry and warm, the virus will disappear.

And reappear in the fall. This one is dangerous. You need to get in that mindset.

Govt won't lift things. Especially international visitors any time soon. And especially any within 2 years of an election.

 

[jcpro]

"Intelligent individuals learn from every thing and every one; average people, from their experiences. The stupid already have all the answers."

-Socrates

LOL!!! And how exactly do we "conquer" the annual flu outbreaks???? Not an answer, but a pretty good guess based especially on the unusual results of the pandemic in Australia and California.

 

[jcpro]

And reappear in the fall. This one is dangerous. You need to get in that mindset.

Govt won't lift things. Especially international visitors any time soon. And especially any within 2 years of an election.

Will it reappear? Swine flu, MERS, SARS,H3N2, Spanish Influenza.etc. And countless others throughout our history. We just have to roll with it as best as we can.

 

[Butler1000]

Will it reappear? Swine flu, MERS, SARS,H3N2, Spanish Influenza.etc. And countless others throughout our history. We just have to roll with it as best as we can.

Hey I'm not saying lockdown within nations. Far from it. I'm thinking mid May announcements of rolling opening. Starting with things like dentists and clinics who have PPE on hand. Then some services like hairdressers with limited customers on site. No waiting etc.

But the borders need to stay shut down as much as possible right now to stop international spread. And most govt's are imo opinion going to do just that.

Cripes things are far from over. Storm seasons are coming up. The world is strained.

Take a breath. Govt's won't fall. Economies will survive. Really if they choose to they can just print money and the reset national debts when they chose to.

 

[art van dele]

Condo Developer Brad Lamb Calls Out Government Response to COVID-19




https://torontostoreys.com/brad-lamb-covid-19-article/

I used to think Brad Lamb is smart, I guess I was wrong. He’s either very stupid or just greedy with no regards for other people’s health and well being.
The herd immunity is not working in Sweden. They started the gradual lockdown.
The reason that our healthcare system hasn’t been overwhelmed and we still have surpluses of ICU units,ventilators,..... it is because of the measures taken by the government to lockdown.
Opioid abuse,car accidents,alcoholism,suicide while tragic and great concerns are not contagious. You don’t need to put people in quarantine for them.