Reverie
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Global Warming. Fact or grossly exaggerated??

Whats your opinion on global warming?

  • Its too late! We're all gonne bake, frie and die in a few years

    Votes: 44 30.1%
  • Its not as bad as scientists say. We got at least 100 to 200 years before shit hits the fan

    Votes: 33 22.6%
  • Its not real at all. Its a carbon credit money making scam

    Votes: 45 30.8%
  • Its all a big conspiracy MAN!!!

    Votes: 9 6.2%
  • Its way too cold in Canada, I wish it were real. Start up the SUV's

    Votes: 15 10.3%

  • Total voters
    146
  • Poll closed .

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
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Nobody is saying that scientific consensus is evidence but it surely must be persuasive because it is based on peer-reviewed evidence or studies.

It's also improper if not disingenuous to refer to a Nazi book as an analogy to refute the scientific consensus on GW. Nobody is coercing the scientists and their not supporters of a Fascist regime, etc.
Yikes! You really missed the point on the Einstein quote (it has nothing to do with comparing anyone to Nazis). The point is that it only takes one scientist with the right evidence to prove that a theory is either supported or false.

(By the way, is it "improper" to compare skeptics with Holocaust deniers?)

As for the contrived "consensus" claims, they aren't based on evidence. They are based on numbers put together by environmental activists such as John Cook that are designed to create political talking points to fool the public.

To use Cook's figures as an example, the actual results showed that two-thirds of the papers on climate change that he looked at (ie., a clear majority) had no view on the matter one way or the other.

Of the minority that expressed a view, Cook claimed there was a 97% consensus -- but he misidentified a number of papers that were skeptical as having "no opinion" (and thus, they weren't counted in the tally of those with an opinion).

The environmental activists who create these figures are only trying to produce political talking points. No serious scientist would pay attention to such foolishness (Michael Mann and his ilk are another matter).

--

I've said it before: If poll results are really what matter to you, then an impartial pollster (not an environmental activist) should poll the climate researchers asking a straight-forward question, such as: Do you believe that man-made CO2 emissions are the primary cause of recently recorded warming of the planet?

-- Yes
-- No
-- Don't know.

An honest question, with honestly reported responses, will tell you what the researchers believe -- if that's what matters to you. It still won't be evidence, though (and, most likely, an honestly asked question won't give you a consensus).
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
23,360
10
38
You're not making your point, sorry.

Just looking at your IPCC quote, anthropogenic means 'man-made' means 'from human activity'. If they say anthropogenic CO2 is the main GHG emission and the primary driver of anthropogenic GW, then we're talking about man-made carbon dioxide emissions being the primary driver of warming patterns.

What is the distinction you are trying to make with respect to 'man-made' versus 'human activity'?


You missed the point. Few people dispute that mankind's existence on the planet affects the climate (although there are researchers who dispute that).

The question is whether man-made carbon dioxide emissions were the primary driver of some of the warming patterns in the latter half of the 20th century.

If you want to know whether climate researchers believe that to be true, you have to ask them the question -- not something a little bit similar.

Many people believe Justin Trudeau's father was a great prime minister (not me -- but many do believe that). That doesn't automatically mean they think Justin Trudeau will be a great prime minister.

When you report on polling results, the reporting of the responses has to reflect the questions asked. What some people call "word play" is more accurately described as honest reporting.
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
23,360
10
38
I don't know about some environmental wacko named Cook or his poll, but weren't you responding to Blackrock's list of independent science organizations?

Your analogy uses an example of Nazi propaganda, sorry Moviefan.

Yikes! You really missed the point on the Einstein quote (it has nothing to do with comparing anyone to Nazis). The point is that it only takes one scientist with the right evidence to prove that a theory is either supported or false.

As for the contrived "consensus" claims, they aren't based on evidence. They are based on numbers put together by environmental activists such as John Cook that are designed to create political talking points.

To use Cook's figures as an example, the actual results showed that two-thirds of the papers on climate change that he looked at (ie., a clear majority) had no view on the matter one way or the other.

Of the minority that expressed a view, Cook claimed there was a 97% consensus -- but he misidentified a number of papers that were skeptical as having "no opinion" (and thus, they weren't counted in the tally of those with an opinion).

The environmental activists who create these figures are only trying to produce political talking points. No serious scientist would pay attention to such foolishness (Michael Mann and his ilk are another matter).

--

I've said it before: If poll results are really what matter to you, then an impartial pollster (not an environmental activist) should poll the climate researchers asking a straight-forward question, such as: Do you believe that man-made CO2 emissions are the primary cause of recently recorded warming of the planet?

-- Yes
-- No
-- Don't know.

An honest question, with honestly reported responses, will tell you what the researchers believe -- if that's what matters to you. It still won't be evidence, though (and, most likely, an honestly asked question won't give you a consensus).
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
1
0
Galileo -- and many others who followed -- proved that empirical evidence is vastly more important than claims of a "consensus."

That remains true today.

I certainly don't know everything, but I do know, from your past posts, that's not a conclusion you would come up with on your own, especially expressed that way.

Then again we have this; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy

Scientific consensus


For any subject, scientific consensus is normally achieved through communication at conferences, publication in the scientific literature, replication (reproducible results by others) and peer review. In the case of global warming, many governmental reports, the media in many countries, and environmental groups, have stated that there is virtually unanimous scientific agreement that human-caused global warming is real and poses a serious concern.[43][44][45] According to the United States National Research Council,


[T]here is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.[46]


Among opponents of the mainstream scientific assessment, some say that while there is agreement that humans do have an effect on climate, there is no universal agreement about the quantitative magnitude of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) relative to natural forcings and its harm to benefit ratio.[47] Other opponents assert that some kind of ill-defined "consensus argument" is being used, and then dismiss this by arguing that science is based on facts rather than consensus.[48] Some highlight the dangers of focusing on only one viewpoint in the context of what they say is unsettled science, or point out that science is based on facts and not on opinion polls or consensus.[49][50]


Dennis T. Avery, a food policy analyst at the Hudson Institute wrote an article entitled "500 Scientists Whose Research Contradicts Man-Made Global Warming Scares"[51] published in 2007 by the The Heartland Institute. After the publishing of this article, numerous scientists who had been included in the list demanded their names be removed after the list was immediately called into question for misunderstanding and distorting the conclusions of many of the named studies and/or citing outdated, flawed studies that had long been abandoned and deemed inaccurate.[52][53][54] The Heartland Institute refused requests by scientists to have their names removed, stating that the scientists "have no right—legally or ethically—to demand that their names be removed from a bibliography composed by researchers with whom they disagree"[55] despite the aforementioned falsification and refutation of much of the list.[56]


A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analysed "1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers".[57][58] Judith Curry has said "This is a completely unconvincing analysis", whereas Naomi Oreskes said that the paper shows that "the vast majority of working [climate] research scientists are in agreement [on climate change]... Those who don't agree, are, unfortunately—and this is hard to say without sounding elitist—mostly either not actually climate researchers or not very productive researchers".[58][59] Jim Prall, one of the coauthors of the study, acknowledged "it would be helpful to have lukewarm [as] a third category".[58]
A 2013 study published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters analyzed around 12,000 papers published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature between 1991 and 2011, identified by searching the ISI Web of Science citation index engine for the text strings “global climate change” or “global warming”. About ⅓ of these papers expressed an opinion about global warming in their abstract, and of these, 97% endorsed the position that humans are causing global warming.[41]

There more, but that handle it quite well, but I'll leave this for you to absorb these few points. In short, not everything can or has to be proved to absolute certainty to be valid.
 

AK-47

Armed to the tits
Mar 6, 2009
6,697
1
0
In the 6
Does anyone still take blackrock seriously?????
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
1
0
Does anyone still take blackrock seriously?????
I suspect more people than who take you seriously, especially after your contribution 300 posts ago. If that's the sum total you have to contribute to this thread, then it's time to get back in your suitcase.
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
Nobody is saying that scientific consensus is evidence but it surely must be persuasive because it is based on peer-reviewed evidence or studies.

It's also improper if not disingenuous to refer to a Nazi book as an analogy to refute the scientific consensus on GW. Nobody is coercing the scientists and they're not supporters of a Fascist regime, etc.
It seems that MF refuses to accept that the consensus is based on it being the theory best based on the evidence and he prefers to make up reasons to ignore it (his conspiracy theory that the scientific community is knowingly spreading falsehoods).
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
Yikes! You really missed the point on the Einstein quote (it has nothing to do with comparing anyone to Nazis). The point is that it only takes one scientist with the right evidence to prove that a theory is either supported or false....
Another place you need to review your science.

He said that it takes one scientist to disprove a theory (one scientist can not prove a theory; that's why science relies on consensus).

Based on Einstein's quote, all it would take is one scientist to prove the consensus wrong. The fact that the consensus is still the consensus means that it hasn't been proven wrong. Maybe someone will discover evidence in the future but unless it happens, claiming that your views are backed by science is ridiculous.


As you said, Galileo proved the previous consensus wrong and his view became the new consensus. There is no Galileo for those claiming CO2 isn't a major factor. Could that be because all of the evidence suggests it is?
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
...
I've said it before: If poll results are really what matter to you, then an impartial pollster (not an environmental activist) should poll the climate researchers asking a straight-forward question, such as: Do you believe that man-made CO2 emissions are the primary cause of recently recorded warming of the planet?

-- Yes
-- No
-- Don't know.

An honest question, with honestly reported responses, will tell you what the researchers believe -- if that's what matters to you. It still won't be evidence, though (and, most likely, an honestly asked question won't give you a consensus).
You ever wonder why this survey hasn't happened? I'll give you a hint. Those in the scientific community know 'anthropogenic' means 'due to human activity'.
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
...
Scientific consensus


For any subject, scientific consensus is normally achieved through communication at conferences, publication in the scientific literature, replication (reproducible results by others) and peer review. In the case of global warming, many governmental reports, the media in many countries, and environmental groups, have stated that there is virtually unanimous scientific agreement that human-caused global warming is real and poses a serious concern.[43][44][45] According to the United States National Research Council,


[T]here is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. ....
MF will say it's fake because they don't specifically say man made CO2.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
63
He said that it takes one scientist to disprove a theory (one scientist can not prove a theory; that's why science relies on consensus).
Actually, we both got it wrong.

You're right in that he was saying it only takes one scientist to disprove a theory. However, science relies on evidence and research confirming that results can be replicated -- not "consensus."
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
63
You ever wonder why this survey hasn't happened? I'll give you a hint. Those in the scientific community know 'anthropogenic' means 'due to human activity'.
Unlike you, I don't believe that every "human activity" involves the burning of fossil fuels. That's certainly not true in my life (I can't speak for yours).

As to your broader question -- the answer is no, actually, I don't wonder why an honest survey hasn't happened. I think the answer is obvious.
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
Actually, we both got it wrong.

You're right in that he was saying it only takes one scientist to disprove a theory. However, science relies on evidence and research confirming that results can be replicated -- not "consensus."
Again, word play. Scientific consensus means that the evidence has been replicated and peer reviewed. It's not like a debate where people try and convince each other. The fact that the scientific consensus supports anthropogenic climate change driven by CO2 doesn't rely on opinions and polls, it means that the actual data has been views, reviewed, checked, and triple checked by the scientific community and they agree that the conclusion is well supported.
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,243
6,451
113
Unlike you, I don't believe that every "human activity" involves the burning of fossil fuels. That's certainly not true in my life (I can't speak for yours).

As to your broader question -- the answer is no, actually, I don't wonder why an honest survey hasn't happened. I think the answer is obvious.
Yes, the answer is obviously that when climate scientists are asked about 'human activity' they know the question is primarily about CO2. Otherwise we would have already had your anti-CO2 global warming Galileo.

Your comments on what's preventing an 'honest' survey is just you going back to your conspiracy theory again.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
63
Again, word play. Scientific consensus means that the evidence has been replicated and peer reviewed. It's not like a debate where people try and convince each other. The fact that the scientific consensus supports anthropogenic climate change driven by CO2 doesn't rely on opinions and polls, it means that the actual data has been views, reviewed, checked, and triple checked by the scientific community and they agree that the conclusion is well supported.
Take another look at the papers claiming there is a "consensus" -- none of them were based on determining whether or not the research findings could be replicated.

The methodology of the "consensus" papers that you cite make it absolutely clear that research has nothing to do with it.

Doran, for example, polled people on their opinions. And Cook didn't assess the research, he simply did a search of papers on the subject and calculated (wrongly) how many he believed were supportive of the premise.

Indeed, let's not forget what Phil Jones said: He would delete his file before he would allow his findings to be tested by anyone who was skeptical of the premise. And, sure enough, key data did go missing.

It is political spin -- propaganda, really -- to assert that these claims of a "consensus" are based on replication of research findings. Absolutely false.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
63
Yes, the answer is obviously that when climate scientists are asked about 'human activity' they know the question is primarily about CO2.
"Obviously"?

In fact, researchers can believe that mankind's activities on the planet affect the climate without necessarily believing that man-made CO2 emissions are a primary driver of changes in the climate.

To honestly report on the findings, the description of the responses have to reflect the questions asked. It's not "word play." It's called conducting credible polling.
 
Ashley Madison
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