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Global Warming. Fact or grossly exaggerated??

Whats your opinion on global warming?

  • Its too late! We're all gonne bake, frie and die in a few years

    Votes: 44 30.1%
  • Its not as bad as scientists say. We got at least 100 to 200 years before shit hits the fan

    Votes: 33 22.6%
  • Its not real at all. Its a carbon credit money making scam

    Votes: 45 30.8%
  • Its all a big conspiracy MAN!!!

    Votes: 9 6.2%
  • Its way too cold in Canada, I wish it were real. Start up the SUV's

    Votes: 15 10.3%

  • Total voters
    146
  • Poll closed .

groggy

Banned
Mar 21, 2011
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I sure can. :thumb:
Because you are so desperate that you back the words of a man who thinks the world is 6000 years old over the vast consensus of scientists including pretty much every legit scientific association.

Legit science has 95% certainty on the matter.

Your denier position is supported by charlatans and fools.

You have only picked the side that best represents yourself.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
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Unless you know the end result and the triumphs and errors to be discovered in between, you can't make that claim, at least with some credibility.

How close do you think people thought the Wright Brothers, on the try before succeeding? How close were they the day before the discovery that Viagara was good for ED, not just migraines? What did the researcher think the day before they discovered nylon. How close did Alexander Flemming think he was the day before he discovered penicillin?
Originally Posted by blackrock13
You can make that claim, at least with some credibility.


I sure can. :thumb:
Except that's not what I posted, but you've never been gods at reading and comprehension. Notice how you avoided answer the Wright brother, and penicillin question. No one can correctly measure a string until the can see both ends, which you can't at this time.

Ever seen a scent hound hunt or a police dog track? Research science is very much like that. They don't follow a straight line scent, they weave back and forth narrowing their zone of activity, following the strongest scent and ignoring the weakest trail until they find the target. That's more often than not what research science is all about. Then again, you've made it quite clear you have so little understanding of how it works, even though it's been clearly told over and over and over, I doubt repeating it or giving you more examples will make a dent. I also suspect many on here feel the same way as I.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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At least they when called on it, they admitted their mistake, and it was corrected.
Five years later. And "mistake" is a dishonest characterization of what was occurring.

Michael Mann -- who was at the centre of the controversy -- thanked the IPCC for the "clarification" after the IPCC and the Nobel Institute confirmed that he was not a "recipient" of the Nobel Peace Prize.

As if there was something that had been unclear, other than Mann's credibility.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
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I wouldn't want people to think I have a holier-than-thou attitude.
Then again you've never been that either. It looks like you've decided, after running out of legit defendable points and opinions, to put your Spelling Nazi pointy helmet on and be the class clown. you're not good at that also. I'll help you out, knowing your handicap, if you didn't realize it, the word should have been 'good'.
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
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No, I believe we should accept the empirical evidence and conclude that we don't know whether man-made CO2 affects the climate.

You guys seemed to be struggling to understand what it is the IPCC has been saying (yet, in spite of your confusion, you're certain the IPCC must be right).
Seems that you keep talking about empirical evidence but choose to ignore the empirical evidence. Just like you agree that 'human activity' is causing global warming but claim it's not anthropogenic.


I know frequent posters tend to be stubborn (I've got that too) but in this case, you should just admit that you have no arguments left. Your argument has come down to word play, the fact that you don't want to accept what the science is saying, and claiming that 'advocacy' means the vast majority of scientists should be ignored.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Your argument has come down to word play, the fact that you don't want to accept what the science is saying, and claiming that 'advocacy' means the vast majority of scientists should be ignored.
The "vast majority" of 79 carefully selected responses to a misleading question. :D

I don't know why you keep saying that I don't want to "accept" what the science is saying. I do accept it. I accept the results -- reported (although downplayed) in the IPCC's fifth assessment report -- that showed the IPCC's predictions were spectacularly wrong.

It tells me that we should prefer empirical evidence over computer models and mathematically fabricated claims of a "consensus."

I keep telling you: I fully accept that.

(Rather than talking about the Wright Brothers, maybe you guys should look up Galileo.)
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
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You've shown not legitimate reason to accept that you speak with authority, you just say such and such is propaganda, and show only porous examples from 'Andrew' on a blog calledPopular Tech.org of why you say so.

Then we have this group, who know a lot more about the scientific method and climatology than pretty much anyone on this BB.

Scientific organizations endorsing the consensus

The following scientific organizations endorse the consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities":
The Academies of Science from 19 different countries all endorse the consensus. 13 countries have signed a joint statement endorsing the consensus position:
  • Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
  • Royal Society of Canada
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Academie des Sciences (France)
  • Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
  • Indian National Science Academy
  • Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
  • Science Council of Japan
  • Academia Mexicana de Ciencias (Mexico)
  • Russian Academy of Sciences
  • Academy of Science of South Africa
  • Royal Society (United Kingdom)
  • National Academy of Sciences (USA) (12 Mar 2009 news release)
A letter from 18 scientific organizations to US Congress states:
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science."​
The consensus is also endorsed by a Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC), including the following bodies:
  • African Academy of Sciences
  • Cameroon Academy of Sciences
  • Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
  • Kenya National Academy of Sciences
  • Madagascar's National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences
  • Nigerian Academy of Sciences
  • l'Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
  • Uganda National Academy of Sciences
  • Academy of Science of South Africa
  • Tanzania Academy of Sciences
  • Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
  • Zambia Academy of Sciences
  • Sudan Academy of Sciences
Other Academies of Sciences that endorse the consensus:
Last updated on 16 May 2013 by dana1981. View Archive

As far as the 49 NASA employees,although this was handled in an earlier thread, one can look at it this way, as posed by Rob Honeycott, and consider it's weighted value.



Many of their seven questions have been easily dealt with before.
The "vast majority" of 79 carefully selected responses to a misleading question. :D

I don't know why you keep saying that I don't want to "accept" what the science is saying. I do accept it. I accept the results -- reported (although downplayed) in the IPCC's fifth assessment report -- that showed the IPCC's predictions were spectacularly wrong.

It tells me that we should prefer empirical evidence over computer models and mathematically fabricated claims of a "consensus."

I keep telling you: I fully accept that.

(Rather than talking about the Wright Brothers, maybe you guys should look up Galileo.)
Then again I suspect these association have more than 79 members, certainly more than 49 retired NASA employees, and they agree.

What wrong with the Wright Brothers, they failed a number of times, as did a number of others who tried to fly, but they all knew it would happen and kept going.

What aspect of Galileo's work are you referring to?
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
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Galileo -- and many others who followed -- proved that empirical evidence is vastly more important than claims of a "consensus."

That remains true today.
Isn't a consensus of scientists different than a consensus of die hard clergy?
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
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At the rate of climate change over the past century, the fear is that the environment will be unable to adapt fast enough to support our 7 billion people.
Not to mention rising sea levels from the melting of ice caps and the impact or consequences to coastal cities.
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
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In truth, the last ice age hasn't ended. It started about 2.5 million years ago. When palm trees return to the north shore of Alaska you can call it over.
If that's the case, then a warming trend is inevitable and irreversible no matter what man does (he may accentuate the reversion to how things should be pre-ice age), no?
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
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Sadly for that columnist, the 'pause' hasn't been a stoppage of global warming, just a decrease in how quickly it is happening.

Since he referenced the Met, here are their latest reports. One on recent observations and patterns, one specifically examining the pause, and one on the implication for predictions.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming

For example, despite his claims of global warming having stopped in 1997, the 14 warmest years in recorded history have happened since then.


Using an opinion piece from the Sun might not be the best source for science.
I realize that but he's using scientific sources, although he doesn't appear too objective when he makes his 'Red Star' references.

What does he attribute that 1997 stoppage? I never heard of Global Warming until after 1997 lol.
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
23,360
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Also worth noting, while we are undergoing a colder winter than usual, Australia is having record heat; temperatures in Melbourne and Adelaide topping 40 C.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/australian-summer-melts-records


I wonder how the quacks will react if we get a summer like that?

They will counter that the summer high heat is just as anecdotal an observation as our past, cold, snowy winter (although, I'll argue that we had a normal Canadian winter for once).
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
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Just for fun, let's look at the IPCC's Summary for Policy Makers from 2007:

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms2.html

A key quote (with highlights added by me):

"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.[7] It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM.4)."

Furthermore, "Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004. The long-term trend of declining CO2 emissions per unit of energy supplied reversed after 2000."

So, to be clear, the premise of anthropogenic global warming is that man-made greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the warming, and man-made carbon dioxide is by far the "most important" of the greenhouse gases.

The IPCC and its followers couldn't be clearer on this point: man-made carbon dioxide emissions are, in their view, the primary driver of global warming.

If you want to talk about "human activity," that's something completely different.

Here's the problem, particularly for basketcase -- if you believe that anthropogenic changes to the climate only refer to "human activity" in general and not specifically to CO2 as a primary influence, you may be on more solid scientific footing.

But that means the IPCC, Michael Mann, Groggy and others would classify you as a "denier."

You sound more in denial. The plain meaning of the word 'man-made' seems interchangeable with the phrase 'human activity'.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
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Isn't a consensus of scientists different than a consensus of die hard clergy?
It's worth repeating Albert Einstein's response to the Nazis publishing a book called 100 Authors Against Einstein: "Were I wrong, one professor would have been quite enough."

A so-called "consensus" of scientists doesn't mean anything if the scientists are wrong.

Furthermore, the mathematically contrived "consensus" is a political talking point. It is not evidence. It is not even statistically accurate. It is used to try to steer the conversation away from the evidence (as we have seen in this thread).

Ultimately, the premise that man-made CO2 emissions are a primary driver of increases in the Earth's temperature will be determined by evidence. At this point, the evidence shows we have no idea if there is any merit to the premise. Nor is it likely we will know the answer anytime soon.

There is good reason to be skeptical, given that many of the predictions were spectacularly wrong. And leading climate researchers (eg., Phil Jones) refused to concede there was a "pause" in warming until it became irrefutable (and then they claimed they knew the "pause" was possible all along. :biggrin1:)
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
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You sound more in denial. The plain meaning of the word 'man-made' seems interchangeable with the phrase 'human activity'.
You missed the point. Few people dispute that mankind's existence on the planet affects the climate (although there are researchers who dispute that).

The question is whether man-made carbon dioxide emissions were the primary driver of some of the warming patterns in the latter half of the 20th century.

If you want to know whether climate researchers believe that to be true, you have to ask them the question -- not something a little bit similar.

Many people believe Justin Trudeau's father was a great prime minister (not me -- but many do believe that). That doesn't automatically mean they think Justin Trudeau will be a great prime minister.

When you report on polling results, the reporting of the responses has to reflect the questions asked. What some people call "word play" is more accurately described as honest reporting.
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
23,360
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Nobody is saying that scientific consensus is evidence but it surely must be persuasive because it is based on peer-reviewed evidence or studies.

It's also improper if not disingenuous to refer to a Nazi book as an analogy to refute the scientific consensus on GW. Nobody is coercing the scientists and they're not supporters of a Fascist regime, etc.


It's worth repeating Albert Einstein's response to the Nazis publishing a book called 100 Authors Against Einstein: "Were I wrong, one professor would have been quite enough."

A so-called "consensus" of scientists doesn't mean anything if the scientists are wrong.

Furthermore, the mathematically contrived "consensus" is a political talking point. It is not evidence. It is not even statistically accurate. It is used to try to steer the conversation away from the evidence (as we have seen in this thread).

Ultimately, the premise that man-made CO2 emissions are a primary driver of increases in the Earth's temperature will be determined by evidence. At this point, the evidence shows we have no idea if there is any merit to the premise. Nor is it likely we will know the answer anytime soon.

There is good reason to be skeptical, given that many of the predictions were spectacularly wrong. And leading climate researchers (eg., Phil Jones) refused to concede there was a "pause" in warming until it became irrefutable (and then they claimed they knew the "pause" was possible all along. :biggrin1:)
 
Ashley Madison
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