Get ready Kamala fans...this is just the beginning

[WyattEarp]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826274410594185631

RFK Junior is all over the place. I don't necessarily know if his supporters will support Trump endorsement or no endorsement.

His supporters down here that I know seem to be either conspiracists or protest voters. It's possible many of them don't vote at all or vote for another third party candidate.

 

[Valcazar]

Are we pushing this idea that the media is conservative again?

Not pushing.
Stating.

It doesn't make sense when journalists' and their managers' campaign donations are tracked. Seems like a fair metric to most of us.

It makes sense when you look at what they actually do.
This

Perhaps the media in general doesn't support Bernie Sanders' or a pure progressive platform. However, the media does not support Republicans. They almost have to be shamed into covering topics and issues that favor the Republicans. As in that issue ain't going away, so maybe we need to give that story airtime or print.

This is completely wrong.

Even last night's convention media interviews were more friendly and convivial than Milwaukee. I expect journalists in attendance to have big smiles on their faces all week while they lob softballs at Democratic leaders.

Oh, reporters tend to be more pro-Democrat.
The media is pro-Republican.

Here's a simple a way of explaining it.

x.com

x.com

There was a big bump in the preceding two plus weeks leading to the Republican convention. Kamala has had a great couple weeks leading up to the Democratic convention. We will see if she can make further progress in polls. Clearly unless someone doesn't something really stupid, Trump and Harris are fighting over a shrinking middle. (Both candidates in my opinion have a propensity to do stupid things. I will say Trump has a higher propensity, but he is also the known commodity in the race.)

Like I said, I expect it to be tight.
I do think there will be a bit more of a DNC bounce, but like most bounces, it will regress back.
Given the debate is the 10th, the DNC bounce should have faded by then, so if anything the storyline will be about Trump gaining momentum going into the debate.

 

[WyattEarp]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826118002246308305

This doesn't pass the smell test.

 

[Valcazar]

Valcazar is either intentionally propagating a lie, or he's never actually spoken with many, or perhaps any, journalists. It usually takes less than 10 minutes for the vast majority of them to tell you clearly that they favour left leaning policies and politicians.

They are.
But the media favors the GOP.

It's a hopeless argument for him, because anyone who watches a wide spectrum of platforms believes their own eyes and ears over any convoluted counterargument.

You've never let what you see and hear change what you believe about what you are seeing and hearing.
I am not expecting any different now.

 

[Valcazar]

I believe Valcazar spends a lot of time in an academic environment.

Not anymore.
I did in the past.

Similarly, I have progressive friends that thought the Obama Presidency was a wasted opportunity. Obviously, most of American media gushed over him.

You were under the impression the American media gushed over Obama?

 

[silentkisser]

Fox has this loser Dem host named Jessica Tarlov. There goes your Fox hypothesis......LMAO I wish Fox would fire Jessica Tarlov!!

I think that sort of proves my point...You would want to fire the one person who pushes back against the right-wing/GOP fever swamp play book. Someone who brings in facts that fuck up the other hosts feelings. Tarlov, it should be pointed out, is not a sycophant like all the other fox hosts. She ain't kissing Biden's or Harris' ass in the hopes she can parlay that into her own show or a place in the administration. She is frequently the only reasonable voice on the opinion side of things.

 

[silentkisser]

This doesn't pass the smell test.

I don't believe bullshit like this, even when its people saying the Trump campaign is paying people to attend his rallies. We should all be skeptical of this type of unattributed crap from some rando on the internet.

 

[WyattEarp]

We will see.
I doubt either of us is representative of the general public.

Americans (people in general, really) have shown very little understanding of what controls prices.

It doesn't really matter what the American voter in the middle thinks of price controls, price gouging whatever. Fair or unfair, these voters have a tendency to blame whoever is in the White House for inflation, unemployment, etc. We all saw employment numbers were revised down for April 2023-March 2024.

The economy is okay, but the direction is pointing to a weaker scenario. I suspect weaker data now until the election. It will be interesting to see if Kamala can separate herself from the Biden Administration.

"Likely".
So you don't know, you're just guessing.

Nope, I wasn't exactly guessing. I did a couple searches. Some one-off govt. lawsuits for gas stations price gouging during a hurricanes and EpiPen. Nothing directed at an entire industry or category.

I'm all for evaluating overconsolidation in certain industries. When prices across all categories are significantly higher and were stable for many years before the printing press was turned loose, I don't think consolidation is the problem. What the U.S. has had is called systemic inflation.

 

[WyattEarp]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826295643931058225

Medicine cabinet?

No thanks, I will go with my doctor-prescribed meds.

 

[Valcazar]

Did Michelle Obama just say Democrats need to make sure every voter is registered and has a voting plan?
WTF does she mean by make sure they have a voting plan?

A plan to vote.
Where you need to go. How you are getting there. Who is covering for you while you wait.
Etc.

I'm not sure why this shocked you?
It's pretty basic.

 

[Valcazar]

Yes...Unfortunately for him this will hurt him significantly. He's not nimble enough to walk through the minefields that he steers himself into.

What minefields?
These all seem like interviewers who would be very sympathetic to Trump and softball him.

 

[Valcazar]

These are polls sponsored and financed by the various media. Rarely do we hear about internal polls from the campaigns itself.
For sure the campaigns pay close attention to the polls, and accordingly structure their various platforms that are designed to attract certain crucial sections of the population.

Which is all fine.
I'm only objecting to poll-obsessed horse-race reporting.

 

[Valcazar]

Strangely, Newsweek seems to be running overly-dramatic and conflicting headlines on polls every day. I don't think there is much real journalism being done there, but people still remember the name.

If I recall, Newsweek was bought by some tabloid magnate years ago.
It's completely unreliable now, just throwing up whatever.
But, as you say, people remember the name and it is coasting some off of that.

Maybe things changed and someone is trying to rebuild it, but it became garbage quite some time ago, I thought.

 

[WyattEarp]

A plan to vote.
Where you need to go. How you are getting there. Who is covering for you while you wait.
Etc.

Yes, make sure they have a vote plan.......your Democratic precinct captain strongly suggests this is how you should vote.
We can assist you with your absentee ballot. We can come by and pick up your ballot.

For decades, it was about registering voters and encouraging them to vote. The last several years the chain of custody has been weakened and even eliminated in some instances. Urban bosses of old would love working with voters on their "vote plan".

So it's just an opinion that "go register voters" followed by "make sure they have a vote plan' deliberately sounded too broad. Michelle Obama could have just said register voters and get them to the polls (or encourage them to vote).............but now we have a more relaxed voting process.

 

[Valcazar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826274410594185631

Yup.

They were in it to help Trump win, and now it is looking like they can't accomplish that if they stay.

RFK Jr.'s running mate outlines 'two options': Drop out and back Trump or 'risk' Harris win

Nicole Shanahan, who is pumping millions of dollars into Kennedy's independent campaign, made the remarks in a podcast interview.

www.nbcnews.com

"The question is, you know, is the risk of a Harris-Walz presidency worth us staying in?" she continued.

I think Stein has also gone on the record now saying the point of running is to make sure the Democrats lose.

 

[Valcazar]

RFK Junior is all over the place. I don't necessarily know if his supporters will support Trump endorsement or no endorsement.

His supporters down here that I know seem to be either conspiracists or protest voters. It's possible many of them don't vote at all or vote for another third party candidate.

It looks like he was drawing from a lot of disaffected voters who didn' t want a Biden/Trump rematch.
The change to Harris seems to have made most of the Democratic side of that group go back to the Dems.
All the recent polls show him more consistently hurting Trump.

Since he and his running mate seem to understand the problems with the FPTP system, they are bowing out since their priority of preventing a Democratic presidency is threatened more by them staying in.

 

[K Douglas]

The Democrats believe, with all of their assets in the media, that they can shape the popularity of their candidates no matter what actual citizens think of them prior to an election campaign. I have never seen a more brazen demonstration of this belief than their selection of Harris - perhaps the only Democrat interested in the job with worse approval ratings than Biden!

Woe betide the American public if they are right. My own belief is that the media aren't quite that powerful and therefore Harris will fall short.

I agree. Her likeability factor is worse than Hillary's.

 

[Valcazar]

It doesn't really matter what the American voter in the middle thinks of price controls, price gouging whatever. Fair or unfair, these voters have a tendency to blame whoever is in the White House for inflation, unemployment, etc. We all saw employment numbers were revised down for April 2023-March 2024.

Exactly.
Most Americans do not understand this and just blame "The President" or rarely some other easy target.

The economy is okay, but the direction is pointing to a weaker scenario. I suspect weaker data now until the election. It will be interesting to see if Kamala can separate herself from the Biden Administration.

A crash in September or October would hit the Harris campaign very hard.
I am quite sure that is being worked on by Trump and Co, but who knows how effectively they can pull it off.

Nope, I wasn't exactly guessing. I did a couple searches. Some one-off govt. lawsuits for gas stations price gouging during a hurricanes and EpiPen. Nothing directed at an entire industry or category.

That's not what you were guessing about.
You were guessing it was "because they don't make sense" as opposed to them being written to deal with emergencies and not as generalized attacks on industries.

I'm all for evaluating overconsolidation in certain industries. When prices across all categories are significantly higher and were stable for many years before the printing press was turned loose, I don't think consolidation is the problem. What the U.S. has had is called systemic inflation.

Consolidation is a major problem. Anti-trust laws are under-enforced.
But anti-trust laws aren't price-gouging ones.

 

[WyattEarp]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826326765524189553

Twitterati silly talk. If RFK Jr. got momentum in early primary polling, other more prominent Democrats would have stepped into the race. RFK Jr. would merely been like Eugene McCarthy in 1968. McCarthy's strong showing in New Hampshire demonstrated that Lyndon Johnson was a vulnerable incumbent. Other Democrats stepped into the race.
(mandrill despises references to the past unless they are posted by Valcazar.)

So No, RFK Jr. had zero chance of being the Democratic nominee. RFK Jr. seems to want attention and endorsing Trump gets him the most attention.

 

[Valcazar]

Yes, make sure they have a vote plan.......your Democratic precinct captain strongly suggests this is how you should vote.
We can assist you with your absentee ballot. We can come by and pick up your ballot.

For decades, it was about registering voters and encouraging them to vote. The last several years the chain of custody has been weakened and even eliminated in some instances. Urban bosses of old would love working with voters on their "vote plan".

So it's just an opinion that "go register voters" followed by "make sure they have a vote plan' deliberately sounded too broad. Michelle Obama could have just said register voters and get them to the polls (or encourage them to vote).............but now we have a more relaxed voting process.

Your paranoia is your problem.
Have a vote plan is not new.

https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/nickerson20and20rogers_FINAL.pdf

The idea that encouraging people to make a plan rather than just generically telling them to go vote improves voter turn out has been around for a while.
This is really boring and uncontroversial stuff.