I'm mostly a lurker on this board as a whole, and am certainly not looking to start posting simply to pick fights with anyone. Given that, I'm assuming even this post is unwise. That said, I was born in (West) Berlin, grew up there, and moved here in my 20s (I'm 42 for reference). I go back every year, carry both passports, the whole business. And with due respect, it's utterly appalling how much sheer nonsense gets printed in (mostly US but also a lot of Canadian) media as though it were fact. Many of those speaking with the loudest sense of authority about the "disaster" occurring haven't actually been to any of the places they're talking about within the past 5 years, and are basically recycling translated xenophobic scare stories as fact. Many are simply not true.
Example: the big moral panic story about the supposed hundreds of sex-mad refugees in Köln on NYE who allegedly committed mass sexual assault by groping innocent German women out for the night? Big scandal, front-page news for about a week. After which it became painfully obvious that it was invented out of thin air when no news media could produce a single actual witness, victim, or police officer who had intervened. ALL major German media subsequently issued retractions and apologies, and the Köln Chief of Police (who had been the primary stoker of the story, and who was, by coincidence, a hardcore AfD true believer) was forced to resign as a result of the fallout. The story was a complete hoax, and yet English-language media seem to have completely ignored this part and continue to reference it as though it were a thing that happened.
On Merkel: I would slit my own throat before I would ever vote CDU/CSU, so I am by no means a supporter or a fan, and it pains me to even seem like I'm defending her on anything. But again, when the refugee business was happening, news coverage here utterly failed to report the actual reality of what was happening, which was the simple fact that there was a human wave of almost 2 million people literally walking into Europe because their alternative was death. Now, with due respect, anyone who thinks it's possible to erect a barrier that will stop a human wave on that scale with that little to lose, or that it's even possible to stop such a mass migration short of Nazi-scale atrocity and killing - please PM me cause I have an amazing investment opportunity for you. Merkel first tried to approach the other EU governments to work out an equitable resettlement scheme to spread them out over Europe, but given the recent Greek bailout business the response was primarily to tell her to get fucked. But these people were still obviously coming. So the German government made preparations for the eventuality, and although I'm obviously biased, in that moment doing so made them the only adults in the European room because they ended up being the only administration who actually dealt with the operant reality in front of them. Her miscalculation and naieveté was in having miscalculated so badly how hostile the other EU leaders would be in that moment, but very little of those refusals had fuckall to do with actual immigration concerns. And at the end of the day, when you are facing those numbers of people fleeing certain death, you can wish them away as much as you want but at some point you have to face reality and figure out what to do about it. Which is what she did.
In terms of internal disruptions, of course it was a challenge to take in such a surprising number of people, but those disruptions were mostly dealt with within 6 months as they were spread around the country and permanently settled. Between February and April of 2019 I spent at least a week each in Frankfurt, Köln, Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen and Dortmund. Beyond noticing a percent or 2 more non-white faces more in general than, say, in 2010 I can honestly say there is zero sign of "disruption", and particularly none of this ridiculous "no-go-zone" nonsense that gets breathlessly described in rightwing media here. This is a country that in 1945, with all of its cities bombed to rubble and a population of about 50 million, figured out how to absorb 12 million penniless refugees expelled from all over central and eastern Europe where the only thing they had was the ability to speak German. And they figured it out, so much so that less than 5 years later the Wirtschaftswunder kicked off. That was the point of Merkel's "Wir schaffen das" (we can do this) quote: if 1945 Germany could manage that then 2015 Germany with 82 million people and the 3rd largest economy and some of the best infrastructure on the planet could surely absorb 1.5 million of the most educated Syrians (remember, it costs money to get the fuck out of a death sentence. The bulk of those who came were penniless, but they had university educations. Because not having that status meant you were still dying in Damascus).
In July 2018 the Bundesministerium der Finanzen and Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Federal Finance Ministry and German Institute for Economic Research) issued a joint public finding that based on their best calculations, the pendulum representing the cost of refugee settlement had already swung such that as of writing their position was that the (formerly) refugee population had ceased to be a net cost to the state and was already producing more wealth than it received.
As for the AfD, that's a very complicated subject that to be honest nobody without an understanding of the intersection between generation demographics and East-West social and economic relations and how each impacts the other can really understand. Our media is content to graft phenomena that we understand onto it as a means to explain, but it's misleading. But rather than take my word for it: objectively and rationally speaking, AfD activity and popularity has absolutely fuckall to do with immigration or refugees, though they will scream otherwise until they're blue in the face. Don't believe me? Consider this: Germany is a country made up of 16 federal states. Yes, at this point it's true that the AfD have some presence in all of them, but their power base is demographically and politically very geographically concentrated, and this is reflected by election results at the state and municipal level. The 3.5 states in which the Afd has been concentrated since its founding are Saxony, Brandenburg, Thuringia, and (I don't know the English for this one, sorry) to a lesser extent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. These are the places the Afd hit 25% or close to it. So: want to know what the percentage is even of the *combined* immigrant and refugee population averages out to across these states? 1.5%. The average in the rest of the country is over 20%. So there is actually an inverse correlation between the actual number of foreigners about and the level of paranoia about foreigners translating into support for AfD. Funny, huh?
So why were these 4 states singled out for almost zero resettlement of any of the refugees from 2015? Because they're shit poor areas with almost no economy and the federal government (wisely) concluded that they shouldn't have to face any further challenges. Moreover, these are the states where every ambitious young person fucks off and goes to an economically viable part of Germany to find their fortune, which means they also have the highest average resident age (more than 10 years older than the national average), and the few young still there are basically the losers who couldn't even get their shit together to capitalize on the universal free university system or buy a bus ticket to a functional economy only about 3 hours away. THAT is the core of actual AfD support - old, bitter and resentful. IMO they resemble the Brexiteer demographic much more closely than anything we could compare them to here. But however you interpret that, the immigration stuff is a huge dog whistle and doesn't translate in any way to their actual demographics, centres of power, or sources of support.
We have our own rightwing media here with its own agenda and message and interests, so naturally (as all mass media) it just ignores all of these pesky details and lays a simple ideological blanket over the whole thing and confirms it to the pre-existing message. And, I suppose, if you're mainly concerned with confirmation of your existing beliefs, that's just fine. But the actual reality is quite different.
So, having typed this all out, why should you take my word for it? Good question. You probably shouldn't. After all, I'm just some random bloke who showed up in this thread and claims personal knowledge. I could be anyone, and could be making all of this up as I type (though for what possible motive I can't imagine). But on the other hand, if you don't speak/read German and as such don't have access to the conversation within German media, or haven't spent a chunk of time there over the past 4 years (and I don't mean a 3-day bus tour of the Rhine Valley with Neuschwanstein Castle at the end), then perhaps you might consider the possibility that this is somewhat accurate and at least a chunk of the pearl-clutching moral panic reportage you're reading is alarmist bullshit with an agenda.
In any case, as I said at the start, I'm not trying to pick fights so I will leave in peace as I came. But please know that what I have written above is a description of actual Germany as it functions and exists in 2019.