Civil War: MAGA in Turmoil

[Phil C. McNasty]

Trump was not.
Do you know how to read a graph?

View attachment 519490

Your little chart doesnt tell us much.

The article claims 895 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of 2020 were deported, but cancelled about 74 percent of those detainees.
That means 662 US citizens were not deported. So why were the 662 US citizens not deported, and why were the remaining 233 indeed deported??
Were the 233 deported not actual US citizens?? Maybe they had fake passports??
Until you post every single case we dont know the answer to that.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-487

And also show us the stats for the Obama and Biden full terms as a comparison.
Were US citizens deported during their terms??

 

[squeezer]

It could be.
I haven't had a chance to read it yet.
Remember that Trump isn't some kind of principled isolationist, so there may be another theme in here that isn't just Miller's personal fantasies.

Trump isn't a principled anything except for enriching his family's wealth and he is doing a fabulous job. He is actually a "Vince McMahon" prototype running the WH instead of the WWE.

 

[Valcazar]

Eh, I generally think fascism is a spectrum (and a process) and it is not difficult to say that the Trump administration is somewhere on that spectrum.

Oh, it clearly is. You can argue that it has failed to consolidate its power, but incompetence at accomplishing its fascist goals doesn't mean it isn't fascist.

I'm just objecting to the objective facts framing.

 

[Valcazar]

It's only fascist when Trump does it? Lmao...that's your act?

Don't be silly.
Trump is far from the only fascist in the world.

But that is a graph of ICE activity against US citizens from 2015-2020, which is what that part of the discussion is about.
It isn't a graph of "fascism".

 

[Valcazar]

There were no civilian deaths from blasting a drug boat...l

I'm sorry?
Are drug dealers automatically enrolled in the military?

 

[Valcazar]

I don't think a 53% disapproval rate is a strong enough reading. This with the backdrop that many people don't respond to pollsters honestly or at all.

The problem is that you don't know which way that error goes.
(I'm also not sure what you are referring to that has a 53% disapproval rate. Lots of things have been discussed and you are probably referring to something earlier in the thread I missed.)

Again, it's the economy stupid TERBites.

No one has ever argued that the economy isn't a major factor in how people vote.
But unless you want to argue it is the ONLY thing people vote on (which would be very difficult to argue) then considering what other things would be a factor matters.

And for the umpteenth time, the midterms will likely be at a minimum a Blue tide if not a wave. I don't even know what would be considered a great Democratic midterm as opposed to a good midterm. 10 House seats, 20 seats, 30 seats? You're a Poli Sci junkie, you know that a 20 seat swing could easily swing back in 2028 if the economy is in good shape.

Of course.
Thermostatic equilibrium is a MAJOR force in US politics.
But again, unless you are arguing that there is NO other force, then other things also matter.

Especially in a system that often has small margins with a binary outcome, a small shift in the right place can be huge in its impact.

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

The problem is that you don't know which way that error goes.
(I'm also not sure what you are referring to that has a 53% disapproval rate. Lots of things have been discussed and you are probably referring to something earlier in the thread I missed.)

53% overall disapprove of ICE.

 

[Valcazar]

Can't you do that anyway by saying that the US doesn't have the resources to take care of the child-citizen? So the child should be sent back with its parents and return when it's 18 or 21 if it's still alive and can physically get to the US and prove it's a citizen.

If it was that easy, they wouldn't have done the family separation stuff.
Kid could be taken in by a relative, or other guardian.
They don't become wards of the state.

 

[Valcazar]

First, you cut-off the context of the discussion not to mention I used the qualifier "probably". The longer a discussion goes on the original poster tends to become untethered from the realities. In other words, they will go to any lengths to make any point that supports their worldview.

They may well.
I have certainly had my disagreements with Shaq.

Nonetheless.

In the context of the discussion, the OP said illegal immigrants in the U.S. are denied services. I demonstrated that their children can enroll in school and they have access to emergency care. We can quibble about whether that is too little. But we also know many states offer much more assistance to illegal immigrants. So that is why the OP was bullshitting, riffing what have you.

He did not say they were denied all services.
And there are many services they are denied.

The most generous explanation is the two of you are talking past each other because of your per-conceived notions of what the situation is.

And I still think progressives in general value group identity too much and support the group almost unconditionally on social media.

You are free to believe that.

Since my post was not demeaning towards you and it was qualified, I don't know what the fuss is.

You recruited me into your argument against someone else.
I warned you off since I don't appreciate it and I don't expect you will repeat it.

That's the entirety of the fuss.

 

[Valcazar]

Just like Ory, they never do. LOL

He's tried to back it up now by citing a rather infamous 2013 paper about the size of biceps.
But the disconnect between his claim and the claim in the actual paper he found on the internet was pretty stark.

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

Your little chart doesnt tell us much.

It does.
There were arrests and detentions of citizens during Obama's term.
But there were no removals.
The removals were in Trump's term.
It is unlawful and unconstitutional to deport US citizens.

 

[Valcazar]

Columnist Ed Kilgore lays out 5 ways MAGA excuses Trump's 'childishness' and 'cruelty'

The first way MAGA processes this, Kilgore writes, is by "trolling the liberals," a popular pasttime of Trump and his followers.

"The 'he’s just trolling the libs' defense is a useful bit of jiujitsu as it happens. It turns the self-righteousness of his critics into foolishness while neutering any fears that whatever nasty or malicious thing Trump has said reflects his true nature and inclinations," Kilgore says.

We see this one a lot here.

The second excuse, Kilgore says, involves "playing chess, not checkers," in that MAGA will "argue that he’s operating on multiple levels that include some higher strategies his critics simply don’t have the mental bandwidth to grasp."

"Trump himself set the template for the 'chess not checkers' theory by telling us his most incoherent speeches and statements reflect a novel rhetorical style he calls 'the weave.' You do have to admire his chutzpah in telling people they simply aren’t smart enough to follow him as he fails to complete thoughts and sentences," Kilgore writes.

We see this a little bit, but not often.
It's usually more in the "what he says doesn't matter, that's just style, the real goal is something else" rather than "he's too smart for you to follow".

Kilgore says MAGA's third excuse was that Trump "is a man of the people, and the people are as childish as he is," Kilgore notes.

Trump's "childishness and even his cruelty could be construed as efforts to meld minds with the sovereign public or, at least, key parts of it," Kilgore explains.

"This became most explicit in 2024 when Trump’s crudeness and fury about diversity were transformed into a shrewd pitch for the support of the 'manosphere' and the masses of politically volatile younger men who spend much of their lives there," he adds.

This one seems a bit hand-wavy. Is it actually connection or is this an excuse where people say "oh, he just says it that way to sell it"?

The fourth excuse is that "Trump is an insurgent leader with an insurgent style," Kilgore writes.

"When returned to power most recently, he hit Washington like a gale-force wind defying all precedents and expressing an exasperated public’s disgust with the status quo and the people who led it. So why would anyone expect this Robespierre to play by the rules of Versailles? That’s not who he is and not what he was elected to do," he writes.

That's maybe closer to what I was saying we see sometimes for number 2.

MAGA's fifth excuse is that Trump is "saving America, so he should be able to do any damn thing he wants," Kilgore writes.

We definitely see that one here.

 

[The Oracle]

I don't know about alpha males, but from my experience in life this study is spot on

Strong men are usually conservative

Strong men come across as more conservative, study finds

A study published in Personality and Individual Differences found that physically strong men are perceived as more conservative. The research indicated that physically strong men are viewed as favoring policies that support competition and hierarchy, and such men are also seen as likely to value...

www.psypost.org

This is what I have observed is decades of observance of gym culture....

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

It does

It does not, because 2015 and 2006 were only 2 of Obama's eight-year term.

It also doesn't list Biden's full term

 

[Valcazar]

I read it and posted the PDF with some excerpts.
It is the usual white supremacist treatise you'd suspect comes from Miller.
A lot of rhetoric on European identity, Western identity, great replacement and the like.

I saw your post and already had a copy.
Prime suspect is Miller, for sure, but there are a number of currents in the GOP, so I am curious whether I will see hints of more.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

53% overall disapprove of ICE.
View attachment 519540

Just curious, but how much do you trust these polling companies after the 2024 election when most of them turned out to be wrong??

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

Just curious, but how much do you trust these polling companies after the 2024 election when most of them turned out to be wrong??

I consider them directionally correct.

 

[Valcazar]

Your little chart doesnt tell us much.

The article claims 895 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of 2020 were deported, but cancelled about 74 percent of those detainees.
That means 662 US citizens were not deported. So why were the 662 US citizens not deported, and why were the remaining 233 indeed deported??
Were the 233 deported not actual US citizens?? Maybe they had fake passports??
Until you post every single case we dont know the answer to that.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-487

And also show us the stats for the Obama and Biden full terms as a comparison.
Were US citizens deported during their terms??

And now the flailing.

No, the article does not claim "895 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of 2020 were deported, but cancelled about 74 percent of those detainees."

You could, you know, read the article and not just skim it desperately looking for something.

Here's a quote of the sentence you seem to have latched on to.

"Available ICE data indicate ICE issued detainers for at least 895 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of 2020 and cancelled about 74 percent of those detainers."

You will notice the complete lack of the word "deported" here.

Of course, just a little above that (right next to a graph you may be familiar with by now) is this:

" Available data indicate ICE and CBP took enforcement actions against some U.S. citizens. For example, available ICE data indicate that ICE arrested 674, detained 121, and removed 70 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of fiscal year 2020"

You are free to go look up gao reports on the subject and see if you can find similar reports on their eras.
Since the report seems to have been commissioned in response to a specific complaint, I doubt you will find that.
Which is, of course, the point of you asking, I expect.

 

[richaceg]

Don't be silly.
Trump is far from the only fascist in the world.

But that is a graph of ICE activity against US citizens from 2015-2020, which is what that part of the discussion is about.
It isn't a graph of "fascism".

I'm glad hearing someone on your side finally come to terms he's not fascist...lmao..

 

[Valcazar]

53% overall disapprove of ICE.
View attachment 519540

Ah.
Thank you.

I'd really like to see the strongly approve/disapprove numbers here.
I think "somewhat" rarely results in shifts in possible voting behavior.